Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 09/13/2019
  Indus: 27,220 +37.07 +0.1%  
  Trans: 10,814 +100.11 +0.9%  
  Utils: 847 -6.12 -0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 8,177 -17.76 -0.2%  
  S&P 500: 3,007 -2.18 -0.1%  
YTD
 +16.7%  
 +17.9%  
 +18.8%  
 +23.2%  
 +20.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/12/2019  
  Down arrow26,400 or 27,600 by 10/01/2019
  Down arrow10,200 or 11,100 by 10/01/2019
  Up arrow875 or 830 by 10/01/2019
  Down arrow8,000 or 8,750 by 10/01/2019
  Down arrow2,925 or 3,050 by 10/01/2019
As of 09/13/2019
  Indus: 27,220 +37.07 +0.1%  
  Trans: 10,814 +100.11 +0.9%  
  Utils: 847 -6.12 -0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 8,177 -17.76 -0.2%  
  S&P 500: 3,007 -2.18 -0.1%  
YTD
 +16.7%  
 +17.9%  
 +18.8%  
 +23.2%  
 +20.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/12/2019  
  Down arrow26,400 or 27,600 by 10/01/2019
  Down arrow10,200 or 11,100 by 10/01/2019
  Up arrow875 or 830 by 10/01/2019
  Down arrow8,000 or 8,750 by 10/01/2019
  Down arrow2,925 or 3,050 by 10/01/2019

 

August 2019 Headlines

Archives


Friday 8/30/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 26 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 588 stocks searched, or 4.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (12) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADBETriangle, descending      08/07/201908/29/2019Computer Software and Svcs
AEERoof, inverted      07/10/201908/28/2019Electric Utility (Central)
AFGTriangle, symmetrical      08/07/201908/29/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BRKSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      08/15/201908/23/2019Semiconductor Cap Equip.
CMTLFalling wedge      08/07/201908/28/2019Telecom. Equipment
CONNTriangle, symmetrical      08/01/201908/27/2019Retail (Special Lines)
GESDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/15/201908/28/2019Apparel
HUBGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/15/201908/27/2019Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IDXXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/14/201908/23/2019Drug
IPARRoof      07/03/201908/23/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
JCPBig W      08/13/201908/23/2019Retail Store
KFRCFalling wedge      08/07/201908/28/2019Human Resources
LXUDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/15/201908/23/2019Building Materials
NWYDead-cat bounce      08/23/201908/23/2019Apparel
NKETriangle, symmetrical      08/05/201908/28/2019Shoe
NBLTriangle, symmetrical      08/01/201908/28/2019Petroleum (Producing)
PFEDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      08/15/201908/23/2019Drug
SEICFalling wedge      08/02/201908/28/2019IT Services
SCSFalling wedge      08/07/201908/28/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
SSYSDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      08/15/201908/28/2019Electronics
TLRDDiamond bottom      07/26/201908/27/2019Retail (Special Lines)
TPXTriangle, descending      08/06/201908/29/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
TMOTriple bottom      08/05/201908/23/2019Precision Instrument
TMKTriangle, symmetrical      08/07/201908/29/2019Insurance (Diversified)
UTXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      08/15/201908/23/2019Diversified Co.
VFCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/15/201908/23/2019Apparel

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/22/2019 and 08/29/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Adobe Systems (ADBE)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 164 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $286.63
1 Month avg volatility: $7.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $301.92 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 26.69%
Volume: 2,172,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,137,863 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/07/2019 to 08/29/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Ameren (AEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 156 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $77.15
1 Month avg volatility: $1.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.82 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.27%
Volume: 2,128,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,342,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 07/10/2019 to 08/28/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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American Financial Group (AFG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 237 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $100.37
1 Month avg volatility: $1.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $96.55 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.87%
Volume: 180,400 shares. 3 month avg: 346,660 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/07/2019 to 08/29/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Brooks Automation (BRKS)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 245 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $32.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.83 or 12.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.29%
Volume: 382,400 shares. 3 month avg: 945,389 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 08/23/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Comtech Telecommunications Corp (CMTL)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 256 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $26.67
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.74 or 7.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.57%
Volume: 176,400 shares. 3 month avg: 255,535 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 08/07/2019 to 08/28/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 405 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $20.46
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.74 or 13.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.48%
Volume: 473,900 shares. 3 month avg: 567,568 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/01/2019 to 08/27/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Guess Inc. (GES)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 457 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $18.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.01 or 11.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.76%
Volume: 13,267,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,269,442 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 08/28/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Hub Group Inc. (HUBG)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 242 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $43.14
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.43 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.37%
Volume: 228,100 shares. 3 month avg: 343,494 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 08/27/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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IDEXX Laboratories, Inc (IDXX)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 13 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $289.29
1 Month avg volatility: $7.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $271.55 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 55.52%
Volume: 328,200 shares. 3 month avg: 512,494 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/14/2019 to 08/23/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Inter Parfums Inc. (IPAR)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 376 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $65.61
1 Month avg volatility: $1.71. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.65 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.06%
Volume: 105,100 shares. 3 month avg: 72,294 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof reversal pattern from 07/03/2019 to 08/23/2019
Breakout is downward 84% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 68% of the time.

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JC Penney Company Inc (JCP)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 560 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $0.73
1 Month avg volatility: $0.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $0.55 or 23.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -30.23%
Volume: 36,758,400 shares. 3 month avg: 17,298,666 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Big W reversal pattern from 08/13/2019 to 08/23/2019
Breakout is upward 71% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 32% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 42% of the time.

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Kforce Inc (KFRC)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 395 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $32.85
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.68 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 6.24%
Volume: 86,000 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 08/07/2019 to 08/28/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 527 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $4.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.13 or 13.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.41%
Volume: 168,400 shares. 3 month avg: 278,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 08/23/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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New York and Company Inc (NWY)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 580 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $1.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.50 or 36.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -61.13%
Volume: 123,900 shares. 3 month avg: 105,818 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/23/2019 to 08/23/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Nike Inc (NKE)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 272 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $85.38
1 Month avg volatility: $1.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $80.46 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.16%
Volume: 5,044,700 shares. 3 month avg: 10,538,462 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/28/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Noble Energy Inc. (NBL)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 238 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $22.78
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.57 or 9.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.43%
Volume: 4,354,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,869,591 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/01/2019 to 08/28/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 445 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $35.33
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.69 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.06%
Volume: 18,580,100 shares. 3 month avg: 16,141,055 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 08/23/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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SEI Investments Co (SEIC)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 170 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $57.25
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.28 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.92%
Volume: 174,700 shares. 3 month avg: 522,352 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 08/02/2019 to 08/28/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Steelcase (SCS)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 381 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $15.50
1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.66 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.52%
Volume: 488,100 shares. 3 month avg: 708,518 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 08/07/2019 to 08/28/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Stratasys Ltd (SSYS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 448 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $23.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.33 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.76%
Volume: 410,500 shares. 3 month avg: 835,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 08/28/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 579 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $5.22
1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.31 or 17.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -61.73%
Volume: 3,409,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,195,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 07/26/2019 to 08/27/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/14/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/12/2019.
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 23 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $77.16
1 Month avg volatility: $2.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $82.49 or 6.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 86.38%
Volume: 392,300 shares. 3 month avg: 985,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/06/2019 to 08/29/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Thermo Electron Corp (TMO)
Industry: Precision Instrument
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 152 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $285.77
1 Month avg volatility: $5.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $267.07 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.70%
Volume: 1,788,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,572,766 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/23/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Torchmark Corp (TMK)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 198 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $88.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $83.26 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.17%
Volume: 477,200 shares. 3 month avg: 431,386 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/07/2019 to 08/29/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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United Technologies Corp (UTX)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 231 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $129.51
1 Month avg volatility: $2.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $122.50 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.63%
Volume: 4,563,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,146,206 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 08/23/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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V. F. Corp (VFC)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 316 out of 583
8/29/19 close: $83.30
1 Month avg volatility: $1.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.55 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.76%
Volume: 1,723,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,795,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/15/2019 to 08/23/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 8/29/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 29.93 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 601 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 380 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 221 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 169/308 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 53/105 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I was wondering what I was going to blog about today when I saw the pattern outlined on the chart.

Notice the dip at A. It happened on Monday and again today. At the open of Tuesday's trading, price spiked. Will price spike again (B vs B?)?

There is some justification for this behavior. One of the trendline measure rules computes the depth of a move and projects it above the trendline like I've sketched here.

We'll know soon enough if the index opens a lot higher. My guess is it won't. Why? Because markets aren't that predictable.

$ $ $

I heard some rustling coming from my front yard while I worked in my office this morning. I looked outside and saw a cow, yes a cow, standing next to my hedge. Two cop care were waiting in the street to bust the thing. So I went outside to open the gate so the thing wouldn't bust it, but he (or she) ran across the yard and jumped over my hedge, evading the cops. The hedge is about 3.5 feet tall, so it's not a easy jump. And this is a cow we're talking about. It was about as tall or a bit taller than the hedge.

So where did the cow come from? Probably from his mother, but I'm not going to get into a sex talk. Smiley

I live in a subdivision, surrounded by 7 million people (I just heard that stat a few days ago). There used to be a horse farm about a hundred yards north of me but a church bought the property and changed it into a sports park.

This odd sighting couples with the armadillo I saw walking across the bike path on Sunday during my biker ride and peacocks landing on a neighbor's roof several decades ago. Animal control says "They're all over the north end of town, running around."

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,276.40    
 Weekly S2  7,560.93  284.53   
 Monthly S1  7,566.64  5.71   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  7,708.91  142.27   
 Daily S2  7,729.94  21.03   
 Low  7,766.67  36.73   
 Daily S1  7,793.41  26.74   
 Open  7,798.35  4.94   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,804.95  6.60   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,816.77  11.82   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,828.59  11.82   
 Daily Pivot  7,830.14  1.55   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,856.88  26.74   
 High  7,866.87  9.99   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  7,878.74  11.87   
 Daily R1  7,893.61  14.87   
 Daily R2  7,930.34  36.73   
 Monthly Pivot  7,953.14  22.80   
 Weekly R1  8,026.72  73.58   
 Weekly R2  8,196.55  169.84   
 Monthly R1  8,243.38  46.83   
 Monthly R2  8,629.88  386.50   

Wednesday 8/28/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice the red bar on the far right of the chart says we're in hunker-down mode (bearish). The signal could disappear if we had a strong move up in the index, but because the signal is several days old, it's unlikely to change.

As you know, the signal can change for up to a week, but is usually solid after 3 days. It's been longer than 3 days (I think it's been 6 days now).

The thin blue indicator line at the bottom of the chart is hugging its low, so that's bearish, too.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 47% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 45%.
The fewest was 21% on 08/29/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 486 stocks in my database are down an average of 24% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 22%.
The peak was 12% on 08/29/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both lines show a worse status compared to a week ago.

I drew a support line under the index. Notice how it's horizontal even as the red and blue lines trend lower. Uh-oh! Divergence.

I drew the horizontal red line not to highlight divergence but to signal weakness. I thought one of the indices had pierced that line, but of the 5 indices I look at, none have done so. In short: Never mind.

I'm just concerned that the markets will break through support and we'll see another collapse. Of course, we all know what politician can cause such a move.

$ $ $

I released another version of Patternz. Yes, another one. This fixes a bug found by two people who use the File Format form.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/27/19. Slider Quiz!

The index climbed by 1.1% or 269.93 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 365 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 210 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 155 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 191/319 or 59.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the horn top chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,173.20    
 Monthly S1  25,036.02  862.81   
 Weekly S2  25,050.00  13.98   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1  25,474.41  424.42   
 Daily S2  25,627.30  152.88   
 Low  25,716.39  89.09   
 Daily S1  25,763.06  46.67   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  25,802.29  39.22   
 Open  25,826.05  23.76   
 50% Down from Intraday High  25,828.82  2.77   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  25,852.16  23.34   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  25,855.35  3.20   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  25,898.83  43.48   
 Weekly Pivot  25,931.60  32.77   
 High  25,941.25  9.65   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  25,987.92  46.67   
 Daily R2  26,077.02  89.09   
 Monthly Pivot  26,202.41  125.40   
 Weekly R1  26,356.01  153.60   
 Weekly R2  26,813.20  457.18   
 Monthly R1  27,065.23  252.03   
 Monthly R2  28,231.62  1,166.40   

Monday 8/26/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

Price has formed a broadening bottom chart pattern which I have conveniently labeled with an A.

Right above A is a partial decline which correctly predicted an upward breakout from the chart pattern.

Look at how the index has faired this year. As of Thursday's close, it has been the second best performing index, so far. And that doesn't include dividends. It might be on top at year's end.

If the market goes south even more, dividend paying stocks tend to retain more of their value than non-dividend paying stocks. I think one of my books (Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader) proves that but I also read it in a book long ago.

Think strongly about diversifying your portfolio before it's too late. That way, if a bear market comes, you can watch more stocks in your portfolio tumble. Smiley

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 249.78 points.
Tuesday: Down 173.35 points.
Wednesday: Up 240.29 points.
Thursday: Up 49.51 points.
Friday: Down 623.34 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 257.11 points or 1.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 144.22 points or 1.8%.
The S&P 500 index was down 41.57 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.5% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.
     13.2% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     7.0% down from the high of 8,339.64 on 07/26/2019.
     20.0% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     6.0% down from the high of 3,027.98 on 07/26/2019.
     16.5% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 08/23/2019, the CPI had:

146 bearish patterns,
2 bullish patterns,
323 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 1.4%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,006  25,317  25,819  26,130  26,632 
Weekly  24,960  25,294  25,842  26,176  26,723 
Monthly  24,083  24,856  26,112  26,885  28,142 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,778  2,812  2,870  2,904  2,962 
Weekly  2,770  2,808  2,874  2,912  2,978 
Monthly  2,693  2,770  2,899  2,976  3,105 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,555  7,653  7,829  7,928  8,104 
Weekly  7,526  7,639  7,844  7,957  8,162 
Monthly  7,241  7,497  7,918  8,173  8,595 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 4 weeks down 2.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 21.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 4 weeks down 1.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 22.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 4 weeks down 2.0%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 26.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
17Triangle, symmetrical
14Double Top, Adam and Adam
14Pipe top
12Head-and-shoulders top
11Dead-cat bounce
10Triple top
9Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
8Pipe bottom
7Broadening top
7Double Top, Eve and Eve

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Financial Services2. Financial Services
3. IT Services3. IT Services
4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
5. Information Services5. Information Services

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/23/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 588 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 6 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 12 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ADBETriangle, symmetrical      08/05/201908/22/2019Computer Software and Svcs
ALKSTriangle, symmetrical      07/29/201908/22/2019Drug
AGODouble Top, Eve and Adam      08/09/201908/19/2019Insurance (Life)
ELPipe bottom      08/05/201908/12/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
HIGRising wedge      07/16/201908/22/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
LZBBroadening top      07/19/201908/21/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
LRCXPipe bottom      08/05/201908/12/2019Semiconductor Cap Equip.
NVDAPipe bottom      08/12/201908/12/2019Semiconductor
OMCDiamond bottom      08/05/201908/22/2019Advertising
OTEXPipe bottom      08/05/201908/12/2019E-Commerce
PKGTriangle, symmetrical      07/25/201908/22/2019Packaging and Container
PYPLPipe bottom      08/05/201908/12/2019Financial Services
PCGDead-cat bounce      08/19/201908/19/2019Electric Utility (West)
PFGDiamond bottom      08/05/201908/21/2019Insurance (Diversified)
SWXDiamond bottom      07/22/201908/22/2019Natural Gas (Distributor)
UPSTriangle, symmetrical      08/07/201908/22/2019Air Transport
WSOTriangle, symmetrical      08/05/201908/22/2019Retail Building Supply
WEXPipe bottom      08/05/201908/12/2019Information Services
ZBRATriangle, symmetrical      08/05/201908/22/2019Computers and Peripherals
IHIDiamond top      07/11/201908/16/2019Medical Supplies

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/15/2019 and 08/22/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Adobe Systems (ADBE)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 139 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $287.69
1 Month avg volatility: $6.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $271.65 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.16%
Volume: 1,741,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,137,863 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/22/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Alkermes (ALKS)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 541 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $21.37
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.10 or 10.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -27.58%
Volume: 836,800 shares. 3 month avg: 949,792 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/29/2019 to 08/22/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 209 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $43.61
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.86 or 5.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.92%
Volume: 443,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,068,715 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 08/09/2019 to 08/19/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Estee Lauder, Cos (EL)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 31 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $202.56
1 Month avg volatility: $5.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $190.05 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 55.70%
Volume: 1,410,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,843,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/12/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (HIG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 74 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $59.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $61.66 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 33.81%
Volume: 1,200,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,032,532 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 07/16/2019 to 08/22/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 404 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $31.52
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.78 or 7.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.75%
Volume: 471,000 shares. 3 month avg: 437,505 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/19/2019 to 08/21/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Lam Research Corp (LRCX)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 105 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $210.46
1 Month avg volatility: $5.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $194.41 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 54.56%
Volume: 990,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,565,394 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/12/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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NVidia Corp (NVDA)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 176 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $171.48
1 Month avg volatility: $5.00. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $159.91 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.45%
Volume: 7,580,700 shares. 3 month avg: 15,363,712 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/12/2019 to 08/12/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Omnicom Group (OMC)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 227 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $77.36
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.42 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.63%
Volume: 983,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/22/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Open Text Corp (OTEX)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 221 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $39.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.11 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 19.88%
Volume: 352,800 shares. 3 month avg: 520,157 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/12/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Packaging Corp of America (PKG)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 255 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $101.12
1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $96.42 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.16%
Volume: 445,200 shares. 3 month avg: 777,560 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/25/2019 to 08/22/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Paypal Holdings, Inc (PYPL)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 111 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $108.77
1 Month avg volatility: $2.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $102.44 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 29.35%
Volume: 3,861,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/12/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 540 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $11.68
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.88 or 27.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -50.82%
Volume: 7,325,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/19/2019 to 08/19/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 222 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $54.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.97 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.46%
Volume: 860,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,638,260 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/21/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Southwest Gas Corp. (SWX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 188 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $88.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $85.07 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 16.25%
Volume: 133,800 shares. 3 month avg: 213,628 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 07/22/2019 to 08/22/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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United Parcel Service (UPS)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 220 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $115.22
1 Month avg volatility: $2.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $109.08 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.14%
Volume: 3,005,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,659,363 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/07/2019 to 08/22/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Watsco, Inc (WSO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 147 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $158.96
1 Month avg volatility: $3.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $150.96 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 14.24%
Volume: 177,600 shares. 3 month avg: 222,320 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/22/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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WEX Inc (WEX)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 86 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $206.62
1 Month avg volatility: $5.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $194.32 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 47.52%
Volume: 133,200 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/12/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Zebra Technologies Corp (ZBRA)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 238 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $204.38
1 Month avg volatility: $6.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $187.20 or 8.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.36%
Volume: 264,200 shares. 3 month avg: 395,197 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/22/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ US Medical devices index fund (IHI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 156 out of 583
8/22/19 close: $247.04
1 Month avg volatility: $3.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $256.09 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 23.64%
Volume: 95,300 shares. 3 month avg: 82,220 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/11/2019 to 08/16/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Thursday 8/22/19. Intraday Nasdaq: Shh! Quiet!

The index climbed by 0.9% or 71.65 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 294 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 193 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 101 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 65.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 169/307 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 53/105 or 50.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Today (Wednesday) was a quiet day and that means a noisy one is coming. Why? Periods of high volatility follow periods of low volatility.

I put Bollinger bands on the chart, but couldn't use them to prove my point, so I removed them. But you can take a look because that's what I learned from B-Bands years ago. The lesson stuck with me.

The two red lines show a period of low volatility, if you ignore the opening gap. Beyond that, there's not much to see. Maybe a large measured move up starting from the low on Thursday, a corrective phase on Monday-Tuesday and maybe extended into today. Maybe tomorrow will be the big upward move that continues to see the market recover.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,330.84    
 Weekly S2  7,585.31  254.47   
 Monthly S1  7,675.53  90.22   
 Weekly S1  7,802.76  127.23   
 Weekly Pivot  7,934.00  131.24   
 Daily S2  7,980.11  46.11   
 Low  7,998.50  18.39   
 Daily S1  8,000.16  1.66   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  8,007.58  7.42   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,013.18  5.60   
 Open  8,017.07  3.89   
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,017.72  0.65   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  8,018.55  0.83   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  8,020.21  1.66   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,022.26  2.05   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  8,036.94  14.68   
 Daily R1  8,038.60  1.66   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  8,056.99  18.39   
 Weekly R1  8,151.45  94.46   
 Weekly R2  8,282.69  131.24   
 Monthly R1  8,352.27  69.58   
 Monthly R2  8,684.32  332.06   

Wednesday 8/21/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The thin green vertical bar on the far right of the chart is still hanging in there. I means the indicator is bullish.

However, look at the bottom of the chart, at the thin blue indicator line. It peaked yesterday and dropped today.

Another day like today and the indicator will flip to bearish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 45% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 42%.
The fewest was 21% on 08/29/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 486 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 21%.
The peak was 12% on 08/29/2018.
And the bottom was 33% on 12/24/2018.

Both the red and blue lines on this chart suggest more weakness ahead. The metrics from a week ago are worse now than then.

Based on these two chart, it says the coming week is going to be a rough one, but I'm not so sure. It seems too obvious, so that the market will try to confound the masses and rise instead.

Guess we'll have to wait and see what happens.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/20/19. Slider Quiz!

The index climbed by 1.0% or 249.78 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 420 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 222 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 198 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 191/318 or 60.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/76 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the horn bottom chart pattern.

$ $ $

New Patternz version 7.18 released.

$ $ $

Here's an interesting stat from tonight's nightly news: 3 out of 4 economists predict a recession by 2021.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,232.28    
 Weekly S2  24,880.08  647.81   
 Monthly S1  25,184.03  303.95   
 Weekly S1  25,507.94  323.90   
 Daily S2  25,923.80  415.86   
 Weekly Pivot  25,967.45  43.66   
 Low  26,020.06  52.61   
 Open  26,020.06  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  26,029.79  9.73   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  26,097.32  67.53   
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,121.19  23.87   
 Daily Pivot  26,126.06  4.87   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  26,135.79  9.73   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,145.06  9.27   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  26,222.32  77.26   
 Daily R1  26,232.05  9.73   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Monthly Pivot  26,291.36  59.30   
 Daily R2  26,328.32  36.96   
 Weekly R1  26,595.31  266.99   
 Weekly R2  27,054.82  459.52   
 Monthly R1  27,243.11  188.29   
 Monthly R2  28,350.44  1,107.32   

Monday 8/19/19. The Week Ahead: Bullish Recovery

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

If this were on the weekly scale, I'd call bottom A a horn bottom. It has the twin downward spikes separated by a price bar. Price confirms the pattern when it rises and closes above the top of the pattern. I'm working on horn bottoms for the next quiz, incidentally.

The AB turn looks to me like a double bottom, Adam & Adam, to be exact.

I'm thinking that this gives us a hint of what the indices will do in the next few weeks: Move up.

I show that by the red line. Whether it will happen as I show is anyone's guess. The index may move higher than the prior peak in a nice push upward (which I suspect it might do) or fall short in a 2B pattern.

We will, of course, have to wait and see.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 389.73 points.
Tuesday: Up 382.2 points.
Wednesday: Down 800.49 points.
Thursday: Up 99.97 points.
Friday: Up 306.62 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 401.43 points or 1.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 63.15 points or 0.8%.
The S&P 500 index was down 29.97 points or 1.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.5% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.
     14.3% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     5.3% down from the high of 8,339.64 on 07/26/2019.
     22.3% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     4.6% down from the high of 3,027.98 on 07/26/2019.
     18.2% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,580  25,733  25,831  25,984  26,083 
Weekly  24,797  25,341  25,884  26,429  26,972 
Monthly  24,149  25,018  26,208  27,077  28,267 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,853  2,871  2,882  2,900  2,911 
Weekly  2,768  2,828  2,886  2,946  3,004 
Monthly  2,707  2,798  2,913  3,004  3,119 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,798  7,847  7,877  7,926  7,956 
Weekly  7,544  7,720  7,893  8,069  8,241 
Monthly  7,289  7,593  7,966  8,269  8,643 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 3 weeks down 8.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 21.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks down 6.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 22.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 3 weeks down 8.5%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 26.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
16Triangle, symmetrical
15Pipe top
14Head-and-shoulders top
13Double Top, Adam and Adam
12Dead-cat bounce
10Triple top
8Double Top, Eve and Eve
6Triangle, ascending
5Broadening top
5Double Top, Eve and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Financial Services2. Financial Services
3. IT Services3. IT Services
4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)4. Information Services
5. Information Services5. None

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/16/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 10 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 588 stocks searched, or 1.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
APDBroadening top, right-angled and descending      07/03/201908/13/2019Chemical (Diversified)
BZHDiamond top      07/30/201908/13/2019Homebuilding
BIOTriangle, symmetrical      08/01/201908/15/2019Medical Supplies
EIXDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/31/201908/09/2019Electric Utility (West)
FICODouble Top, Adam and Eve      08/01/201908/09/2019IT Services
FLEXBump-and-run reversal, top      06/25/201908/13/2019Electronics
INCYTriangle, symmetrical      06/11/201908/15/2019Drug
MYGNDead-cat bounce      08/14/201908/14/2019Biotechnology
TPRDead-cat bounce      08/15/201908/15/2019Apparel
TGPipe bottom      07/29/201908/05/2019Chemical (Specialty)
XELRectangle top      06/14/201908/15/2019Electric Utility (West)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/08/2019 and 08/15/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 20 out of 583
8/15/19 close: $226.34
1 Month avg volatility: $4.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $213.96 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 41.42%
Volume: 1,132,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,051,743 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 07/03/2019 to 08/13/2019
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Beazer Homes USA, Inc (BZH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 583
8/15/19 close: $11.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.52 or 10.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 19.30%
Volume: 239,000 shares. 3 month avg: 503,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/30/2019 to 08/13/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 61 out of 583
8/15/19 close: $319.13
1 Month avg volatility: $7.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $301.71 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.43%
Volume: 347,100 shares. 3 month avg: 180,103 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/01/2019 to 08/15/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Edison International (EIX)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 76 out of 583
8/15/19 close: $72.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.98 or 5.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 26.95%
Volume: 2,419,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,498,883 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 07/31/2019 to 08/09/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Fair Isaac Corp (FICO)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 6 out of 583
8/15/19 close: $340.98
1 Month avg volatility: $9.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $362.24 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 82.34%
Volume: 248,200 shares. 3 month avg: 162,437 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 08/01/2019 to 08/09/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Flextronics International Ltd (FLEX)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 327 out of 583
8/15/19 close: $9.68
1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.72 or 10.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 27.20%
Volume: 3,467,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,241,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Bump-and-run reversal, top reversal pattern from 06/25/2019 to 08/13/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Pullbacks occur 62% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 78% of the time.

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Incyte Corp. (INCY)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 266 out of 583
8/15/19 close: $80.61
1 Month avg volatility: $2.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.43 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 26.77%
Volume: 1,181,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,771,434 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/11/2019 to 08/15/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 488 out of 583
8/15/19 close: $23.20
1 Month avg volatility: $2.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.25 or 34.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.19%
Volume: 3,569,700 shares. 3 month avg: 906,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/14/2019 to 08/14/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Tapestry Inc (TPR)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 566 out of 583
8/15/19 close: $19.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.41 or 25.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -42.37%
Volume: 26,315,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/15/2019 to 08/15/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 210 out of 583
8/15/19 close: $17.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.29 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 10.21%
Volume: 69,700 shares. 3 month avg: 64,734 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/29/2019 to 08/05/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Xcel Energy, Inc (XEL)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 95 out of 583
8/15/19 close: $61.53
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $58.21 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 24.88%
Volume: 3,659,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,202,808 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 06/14/2019 to 08/15/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Thursday 8/15/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -3.0% or -242.42 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 32 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 2.8% on 15 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 17 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 53.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 169/307 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 52/104 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale, but only the last 2 days.

I wanted to zoom into today's (Wednesday's) trading action, hence the chart.

The market opened sharply lower (A), drifted down, and formed a symmetrical triangle (B). A zoom of this chart pattern appears at C. Rather, it's a zoom of the last few price bars.

Notice that it has closed near the bottom of the triangle (green dot). I was going to buy the dip, and I may do that but not at the open.

That is a 4-star doji, a sign of indecision. That doji appears when all four prices are the same. Often you see it in lightly traded shares and it's bogus. So bogus that I decided it wasn't worth studying.

A check of the candle pics shows that this could be bullish harami cross (which is really bearish) or a morning doji star, which is bullish. Go figure.

I think I'll watch the market and buy if it drops again. I've a number of stocks I want to add to. So that's how I think about the bond market's yield inversion and a threat to the bull market.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,248.75    
 Weekly S2  7,447.77  199.01   
 Monthly S1  7,511.35  63.58   
 Weekly S1  7,610.85  99.51   
 Daily S2  7,674.95  64.10   
 Daily S1  7,724.45  49.49   
 Low  7,762.87  38.42   
 Close  7,773.94  11.07   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  7,812.36  38.42   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,815.36  3.00   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  7,825.99  10.63   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,831.58  5.59   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,847.79  16.21   
 Daily R1  7,861.86  14.07   
 Open  7,877.33  15.47   
 High  7,900.28  22.95   
 Monthly Pivot  7,925.49  25.21   
 Daily R2  7,949.77  24.28   
 Weekly R1  7,989.07  39.30   
 Monthly R1  8,188.09  199.01   
 Weekly R2  8,204.21  16.12   
 Monthly R2  8,602.23  398.03   

Wednesday 8/14/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bullish as the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart says.

That's typical when the index makes a big move, either up (green bar) or down (red bar). The bullish signal might disappear if the markets reverse big time.

But, let's enjoy the upward move while we can.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 43% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 43%.
The fewest was 22% on 08/29/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 487 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 22%.
The peak was 12% on 08/29/2018.
And the bottom was 34% on 12/24/2018.

The two indicator lines on this chart were not impressed with today's move. The blue line was the only one to react from a week ago, making marginal headway by improving one percentage point.

The yawn from this chart is at odds with the prior chart, where the indicator zipped higher. So which is right?

It's possible both are. The CPI signal can disappear for up to a week. And these two lines are just following the markets around. If the move is sustained over the coming days, then I'm sure you'll see these two lines improve, too.

$ $ $

I released a new version of Patternz (7.0.0.17). It has a minor enhancement to the List Form.

$ $ $

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/13/19. Slider Quiz!

The index dropped by -1.5% or -389.73 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 174 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 83 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 91 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 52.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 191/318 or 60.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/75 or 50.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the complex head-and-shoulders tops chart pattern.

$ $ $

I abandoned my crypto currency enhancement. The service I was using was unreliable and two other services didn't work either.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  24,287.30    
 Weekly S2  24,944.18  656.88   
 Monthly S1  25,092.51  148.32   
 Weekly S1  25,420.95  328.44   
 Daily S2  25,613.19  192.24   
 Daily S1  25,755.45  142.26   
 Low  25,824.94  69.49   
 Close  25,897.71  72.77   
 Weekly Pivot  25,917.15  19.44   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  25,960.17  43.02   
 Daily Pivot  25,967.20  7.03   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,001.95  34.75   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,043.72  41.77   
 Daily R1  26,109.46  65.74   
 Open  26,169.91  60.45   
 High  26,178.95  9.04   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  26,245.59  66.64   
 Daily R2  26,321.21  75.62   
 Weekly R1  26,393.92  72.71   
 Weekly R2  26,890.12  496.21   
 Monthly R1  27,050.80  160.67   
 Monthly R2  28,203.88  1,153.09   

Monday 8/12/19. Potential Head-and-Shoulders

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

If everything worked correctly, you'll see an expanded version of Tom's Targets at page top. This features some of the crypto currency files I've started following. Five of them are supposed to be listed, but the data provider hasn't reported back what the problem is. I'll blog about btc once in a while...

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale in the chart.

The ACB pattern looks like a head-and-shoulders top, except the right shoulder (B) isn't in place yet. The left shoulder is A, and the head is C.

The chart is a pic of where the index might be headed.

Look for more of a recovery in the coming days. If this chart is accurate (the red line, that is), then look for the B peak to better mirror the left side (A) in distance from the head. It's not drawn far away because I need the chart to fit on the page.

The top of the peak won't be at the same price as A, either. And those two red lines won't be straight advances.

Just think of the picture as the general landscape of what we might see in the coming months.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 767.27 points.
Tuesday: Up 311.78 points.
Wednesday: Down 22.45 points.
Thursday: Up 371.12 points.
Friday: Down 90.75 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 197.57 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 44.93 points or 0.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 13.4 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.1% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.
     16.1% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     4.6% down from the high of 8,339.64 on 07/26/2019.
     23.3% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     3.6% down from the high of 3,027.98 on 07/26/2019.
     19.4% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 08/09/2019, the CPI had:

24 bearish patterns,
3 bullish patterns,
376 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 11.1%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  25,950  26,119  26,266  26,435  26,582 
Weekly  25,074  25,681  26,047  26,654  27,020 
Monthly  24,417  25,352  26,376  27,311  28,334 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,883  2,901  2,918  2,936  2,954 
Weekly  2,777  2,848  2,893  2,964  3,010 
Monthly  2,717  2,818  2,923  3,024  3,129 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,853  7,906  7,963  8,016  8,074 
Weekly  7,510  7,734  7,888  8,113  8,266 
Monthly  7,310  7,635  7,987  8,312  8,664 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 14.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 21.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 12.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 22.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 13.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 26.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
16Double Top, Adam and Adam
15Triangle, symmetrical
11Double Top, Eve and Eve
11Triple top
11Pipe top
11Head-and-shoulders top
10Dead-cat bounce
8Triangle, ascending
5Double Top, Adam and Eve
5Pipe bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Financial Services2. Financial Services
3. IT Services3. IT Services
4. Information Services4. Information Services
5. None5. Healthcare Information

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/9/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 23 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 3.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 17 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISPipe top      07/22/201907/29/2019Semiconductor
BECNDead-cat bounce      08/07/201908/07/2019Retail Building Supply
CIENPipe top      07/22/201907/29/2019Telecom. Equipment
CINFBroadening top      07/08/201908/08/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
DODead-cat bounce      08/05/201908/05/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
DUKTriple bottom      07/25/201908/06/2019Electric Utility (East)
ESVDead-cat bounce      08/01/201908/02/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
ERAPennant      08/01/201908/08/2019Air Transport
FMCBroadening top      06/20/201908/08/2019Chemical (Basic)
FCXBroadening top      06/20/201908/05/2019Metals and Mining (Div.)
INTCPipe top      07/22/201907/29/2019Semiconductor
LRCXPipe top      07/22/201907/29/2019Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LXUPennant      07/31/201908/08/2019Building Materials
MLIPipe top      07/22/201907/29/2019Metal Fabricating
NOVBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      06/04/201908/08/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
CNRDead-cat bounce      08/07/201908/07/2019Building Materials
NTAPDead-cat bounce      08/02/201908/02/2019Computers and Peripherals
OMIFlag, high and tight      07/22/201908/08/2019Medical Supplies
PETSTriangle, symmetrical      07/22/201908/08/2019Medical Services
PORBroadening top, right-angled and descending      07/08/201908/08/2019Electric Utility (West)
RMBSPipe top      07/22/201907/29/2019Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RHIPipe top      07/22/201907/29/2019Human Resources
SMTCPipe top      07/22/201907/29/2019Semiconductor Cap Equip.

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/01/2019 and 08/08/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 342 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $50.30
1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $54.54 or 8.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.17%
Volume: 337,700 shares. 3 month avg: 447,252 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/22/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 509 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $28.77
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.09 or 11.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.30%
Volume: 1,989,300 shares. 3 month avg: 811,195 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/07/2019 to 08/07/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 144 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $43.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.98 or 4.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 29.40%
Volume: 1,789,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,226,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/22/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 38 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $109.74
1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $113.52 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 41.75%
Volume: 487,100 shares. 3 month avg: 534,966 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/08/2019 to 08/08/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Diamond Offshore (DO)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 567 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $6.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.55 or 24.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -35.49%
Volume: 4,244,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,441,012 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/05/2019 to 08/05/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Duke Energy Corp (DUK)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 312 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $89.31
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $85.74 or 4.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.49%
Volume: 2,252,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,571,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 07/25/2019 to 08/06/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Ensco Rowan plc (ESV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 584 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $4.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.31 or 40.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -68.54%
Volume: 9,165,200 shares. 3 month avg: 16,303,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/01/2019 to 08/02/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Era Group Inc (ERA)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 273 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $10.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.69 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.37%
Volume: 71,900 shares. 3 month avg: 78,248 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 08/01/2019 to 08/08/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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FMC Corp. (FMC)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 277 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $88.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $92.82 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.05%
Volume: 1,462,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,151,138 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 08/08/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold B (FCX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 474 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $10.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.04 or 9.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.84%
Volume: 24,263,300 shares. 3 month avg: 16,878,592 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 08/05/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Intel Corporation (INTC)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 387 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $47.17
1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.58 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.51%
Volume: 30,320,800 shares. 3 month avg: 27,019,903 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/22/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Lam Research Corp (LRCX)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 161 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $201.48
1 Month avg volatility: $5.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $213.52 or 6.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 47.96%
Volume: 1,732,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,565,394 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/22/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 553 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $5.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.19 or 16.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.42%
Volume: 128,000 shares. 3 month avg: 278,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 07/31/2019 to 08/08/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Mueller Industries Inc. (MLI)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 446 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $27.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.43 or 6.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.41%
Volume: 261,200 shares. 3 month avg: 161,678 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/22/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 552 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $20.84
1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.65 or 8.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -18.91%
Volume: 4,229,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,130,966 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 06/04/2019 to 08/08/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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NCI Building Systems Inc. (CNR)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 571 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $4.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.72 or 26.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -37.66%
Volume: 1,802,200 shares. 3 month avg: 632,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/07/2019 to 08/07/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Network Appliance (NTAP)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 549 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $47.75
1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.96 or 6.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -19.98%
Volume: 3,637,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,986,022 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/02/2019 to 08/02/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Owens and Minor Inc (OMI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 565 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $4.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.35 or 26.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.44%
Volume: 4,633,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,423 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 07/22/2019 to 08/08/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/20/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/21/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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PetMed Express Inc. (PETS)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 541 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $16.28
1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.50 or 10.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -30.01%
Volume: 783,500 shares. 3 month avg: 739,945 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/22/2019 to 08/08/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Portland General Electric Co. (POR)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 134 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $55.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.05 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.26%
Volume: 358,100 shares. 3 month avg: 771,474 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 07/08/2019 to 08/08/2019
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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Rambus Inc (RMBS)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 98 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $12.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.05 or 6.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 59.58%
Volume: 372,500 shares. 3 month avg: 963,789 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/22/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Robert Half International (RHI)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 434 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $57.63
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.36 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 0.75%
Volume: 625,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,012,069 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/22/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Semtech Corp (SMTC)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 398 out of 586
8/8/19 close: $47.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.89 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.58%
Volume: 447,000 shares. 3 month avg: 510,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/22/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Thursday 8/8/19. Intraday Nasdaq: Is Bullish Turn Here?

The index climbed by 0.4% or 29.56 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 600 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 379 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 221 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 168/306 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 52/104 or 50.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Price made a dramatic move downward at the open, A.

It rebounded quickly in a type of ABC correction before closing the session at B, just above the red resistance line.

I am tempted to swap Tom's Targets at page top to bullish, but fear this might be a fake out. The above probabilities say I'm wrong, that the index will climb higher tomorrow (Thursday). However, the CPI is still down, bearish, with no sign of an upward move. So I'll hang onto my bearish guns for another day. Hmm. Maybe 'guns' is inappropriate, given what's been happening.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Daily S2  7,636.58    
 Monthly S2  7,666.08  29.49   
 Weekly S2  7,675.65  9.57   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S2.
 Low  7,702.42  26.77   
 Open  7,747.27  44.85   
 Daily S1  7,749.71  2.44   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 Monthly S1  7,764.45  14.75   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S1  7,769.24  4.79   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,770.78  1.54   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,791.90  21.12   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,813.02  21.12   
 Daily Pivot  7,815.54  2.53   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  7,862.83  47.29   
 High  7,881.38  18.55   
 Daily R1  7,928.67  47.29   
 Daily R2  7,994.50  65.84   
 Weekly Pivot  8,047.26  52.76   
 Monthly Pivot  8,052.05  4.79   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  8,140.85  88.80   
 Monthly R1  8,150.42  9.57   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  8,418.87  268.45   
 Monthly R2  8,438.02  19.15   

Wednesday 8/7/19. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned red days ago as the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart shows. As I mentioned, the timing of this signal is in question. It occurred later than that shown (probably on Thursday, not on Tuesday), which is why I don't recommend using the CPI to trade.

Regardless, the signal change did provide warning and at least one reader of this blog took that warning and avoided the downturn.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 43% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 34%.
The fewest was 22% on 08/29/2018.
And the most was 81% on 12/24/2018.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 12% on 08/29/2018.
And the bottom was 34% on 12/24/2018.

This chart shows how dramatic the sell-off was. The more sensitive red line moved from 34% of stocks (in my database) bearish to 43%, a huge move. The chart shows the result for both lines.

I still feel that these types of sell-offs are momentary setbacks to a bullish market. The drops will be frequent, every time a politician burps, but not lasting. It may mimic the other dips shown on the chart.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/6/19. Slider Quiz! Head-and-Shoulders Tops

The index dropped by -2.9% or -767.27 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 22 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 3.0% on 9 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.5% on 13 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 59.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 191/318 or 60.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 38/74 or 51.4% of the time.

$ $ $

In case you are wondering what the CPI (chart pattern indicator) says about this latest decline, visit this link. It's updated after the close each Friday and it says the CPI has been bearish for days now. It was bullish on Wednesday, though, so there's some signal changes happening (by that, I mean the bearish signal looks as if it occurred last Tuesday, but we know that's not true. Signals can change for up to a week). Again the chart shown is as of last Friday.

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the head-and-shoulders tops chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Daily S2  25,097.60    
 Monthly S2  25,305.75  208.15   
 Weekly S2  25,383.77  78.02   
 Daily S1  25,407.67  23.90   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Monthly S1  25,511.75  104.08   
 Low  25,523.38  11.63   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1  25,550.76  27.38   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Close  25,717.74  166.98   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  25,804.47  86.73   
 Daily Pivot  25,833.45  28.97   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  25,891.30  57.86   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  25,978.13  86.83   
 Daily R1  26,143.52  165.38   
 Open  26,259.23  115.71   
 High  26,259.23  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  26,416.20  156.97   
 Monthly Pivot  26,455.21  39.01   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R2  26,569.30  114.09   
 Weekly R1  26,583.19  13.89   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  26,661.21  78.02   
 Weekly R2  27,448.63  787.43   
 Monthly R2  27,604.67  156.04   

Monday 8/5/19. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

The big question everyone is asking is how far will the Dow drop?

My guess, and it's only a guess, is not far.

See that knot of support I show circled? I'm thinking that's where the index will find support and turn. It might be sooner (probably) or it might be later (doubtful).

I think Trump threatening to raise tariffs on Chinese good is another fake out. He's left himself enough wiggle room to hold off actually raising the rates. Doing so would begin to inflict cost on consumers and his re-election chances will diminish the longer his policy stays in place.

But I could be wrong...

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 28.9 points.
Tuesday: Down 23.33 points.
Wednesday: Down 333.75 points.
Thursday: Down 280.85 points.
Friday: Down 98.41 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 707.44 points or 2.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 326.14 points or 3.9%.
The S&P 500 index was down 93.81 points or 3.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.3% down from the high of 27,398.68 on 07/16/2019.
     17.0% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     4.0% down from the high of 8,339.64 on 07/26/2019.
     24.0% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     3.2% down from the high of 3,027.98 on 07/26/2019.
     20.0% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 08/02/2019, the CPI had:

18 bearish patterns,
3 bullish patterns,
129 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 14.3%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  26,114  26,299  26,435  26,620  26,756 
Weekly  25,640  26,062  26,672  27,095  27,704 
Monthly  25,562  26,023  26,711  27,173  27,860 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,899  2,916  2,931  2,947  2,962 
Weekly  2,846  2,889  2,957  3,000  3,069 
Monthly  2,844  2,888  2,958  3,002  3,072 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,894  7,949  8,009  8,064  8,124 
Weekly  7,723  7,863  8,094  8,235  8,466 
Monthly  7,713  7,859  8,099  8,245  8,485 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 27.1%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 21.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.5%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 22.1%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 26.9%   The trend may continue. 
 1 month down 26.6%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
15Triangle, symmetrical
11Double Top, Adam and Adam
9Double Top, Eve and Eve
9Triangle, ascending
9Triple top
6Head-and-shoulders top
5Dead-cat bounce
5Double Bottom, Adam and Eve
5Pipe top
5Double Bottom, Adam and Adam

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. IT Services
2. Financial Services2. Financial Services
3. IT Services3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Information Services4. Cement and Aggregates
5. Healthcare Information5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/2/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 29 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 591 stocks searched, or 4.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 13 bearish ones with any remaining (9) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AMDDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/16/201907/26/2019Semiconductor
AMWDRectangle top      07/01/201908/01/2019Building Materials
AMGNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/12/201907/26/2019Biotechnology
ATRDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/01/201907/29/2019Packaging and Container
AGOBroadening top      07/15/201908/01/2019Insurance (Life)
BCPCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      06/20/201907/31/2019Chemical (Specialty)
BGTriangle, symmetrical      06/19/201907/30/2019Food Processing
CSODDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/15/201907/26/2019E-Commerce
GLWDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/01/201907/29/2019Telecom. Equipment
DODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/18/201907/30/2019Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
^DJTTriangle, symmetrical      07/11/201907/29/2019None
EMRTriple top      07/01/201907/30/2019Computers and Peripherals
EIGIDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      07/19/201908/01/2019E-Commerce
ELDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/19/201907/30/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
ETHHead-and-shoulders complex top      06/20/201907/30/2019Furn/Home Furnishings
REDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/15/201907/30/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EXPDDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/24/201907/31/2019Air Transport
FTNTPipe top      07/15/201907/22/2019Computer Software and Svcs
ITDead-cat bounce      07/30/201907/30/2019IT Services
NSPDead-cat bounce      07/29/201907/29/2019Human Resources
LAMRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/22/201907/26/2019Advertising
LNCTriple top      07/16/201907/29/2019Insurance (Life)
MYLPipe bottom      07/15/201907/22/2019Drug
MYGNFlag, high and tight      06/26/201908/01/2019Biotechnology
PPGRectangle top      06/11/201908/01/2019Chemical (Diversified)
REVDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/16/201907/30/2019Toiletries/Cosmetics
SEEDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/08/201907/29/2019Packaging and Container
SSYSHead-and-shoulders top      07/01/201907/26/2019Electronics
TECHTriangle, ascending      06/12/201908/01/2019Biotechnology
VLOTriangle, symmetrical      07/01/201908/01/2019Petroleum (Integrated)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/25/2019 and 08/01/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $29.86
1 Month avg volatility: $1.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.50 or 12.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 61.76%
Volume: 80,645,200 shares. 3 month avg: 56,512,782 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/16/2019 to 07/26/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 121 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $81.28
1 Month avg volatility: $2.64. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $75.75 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 45.98%
Volume: 94,500 shares. 3 month avg: 141,992 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 07/01/2019 to 08/01/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 353 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $186.00
1 Month avg volatility: $3.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $177.64 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.45%
Volume: 3,457,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,770,322 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/12/2019 to 07/26/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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AptarGroup Inc (ATR)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 131 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $117.56
1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $123.83 or 5.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 24.97%
Volume: 533,000 shares. 3 month avg: 241,254 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 259 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $43.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.42 or 4.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 13.11%
Volume: 453,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,068,715 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/15/2019 to 08/01/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 230 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $90.71
1 Month avg volatility: $2.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $107.60 or 18.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.78%
Volume: 203,400 shares. 3 month avg: 82,003 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 07/31/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Bunge Ltd (BG)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 272 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $57.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.89 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.38%
Volume: 1,750,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,268,517 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/19/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Cornerstone OnDemand Inc (CSOD)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 304 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $58.43
1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.18 or 8.1% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.86%
Volume: 559,300 shares. 3 month avg: 697,858 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/15/2019 to 07/26/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Corning Inc. (GLW)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 466 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $29.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.85 or 7.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.56%
Volume: 10,966,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,449,098 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Diamond Offshore (DO)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 545 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $8.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.93 or 15.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.35%
Volume: 2,977,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,441,012 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/18/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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DJ 20 Transportation (^DJT)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
8/1/19 close: $10,433.45
1 Month avg volatility: $155.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10,088.53 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.77%
Volume: 60,281,200 shares. 3 month avg: 44,750,105 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/11/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Emerson Electric (EMR)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 407 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $62.76
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.93 or 8.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 5.04%
Volume: 4,532,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,509,922 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 565 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $5.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.58 or 32.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -20.45%
Volume: 618,700 shares. 3 month avg: 656,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 07/19/2019 to 08/01/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Estee Lauder, Cos (EL)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 37 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $182.76
1 Month avg volatility: $2.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $192.95 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 40.48%
Volume: 1,740,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,843,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/19/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETH)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 342 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $18.39
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $21.61 or 17.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 4.55%
Volume: 864,900 shares. 3 month avg: 320,755 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex top reversal pattern from 06/20/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 67% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 53% of the time.

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Everest Re Group Ltd (RE)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 219 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $244.33
1 Month avg volatility: $3.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $255.80 or 4.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.20%
Volume: 298,700 shares. 3 month avg: 566,686 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/15/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 285 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $73.32
1 Month avg volatility: $1.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.05 or 7.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.68%
Volume: 1,297,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,055,643 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/24/2019 to 07/31/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Fortinet Inc (FTNT)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 292 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $79.02
1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $85.15 or 7.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.20%
Volume: 1,811,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,532,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/15/2019 to 07/22/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Gartner Inc (IT)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 328 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $137.41
1 Month avg volatility: $2.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $146.29 or 6.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.49%
Volume: 790,800 shares. 3 month avg: 564,655 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/30/2019 to 07/30/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Insperity (NSP)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 362 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $105.45
1 Month avg volatility: $3.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $115.28 or 9.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.95%
Volume: 680,100 shares. 3 month avg: 131,942 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/29/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Lamar Advertising (LAMR)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 252 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $79.81
1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.18 or 3.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 15.37%
Volume: 370,000 shares. 3 month avg: 612,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/22/2019 to 07/26/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Lincoln National Corp (LNC)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 322 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $59.82
1 Month avg volatility: $1.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.70 or 13.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 16.59%
Volume: 3,391,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,171,931 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 07/16/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Mylan Laboratories Inc. (MYL)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 563 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $20.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.71 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.84%
Volume: 10,829,700 shares. 3 month avg: 6,554,668 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/15/2019 to 07/22/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/07/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/06/2019 and a 38% chance by 11/05/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 6 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $45.01
1 Month avg volatility: $1.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.32 or 43.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 54.83%
Volume: 10,905,800 shares. 3 month avg: 906,888 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/26/2019 to 08/01/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/08/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/07/2019 and a 38% chance by 11/06/2019.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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PPG Industries Inc (PPG)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 236 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $115.67
1 Month avg volatility: $1.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $111.34 or 3.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.15%
Volume: 1,094,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,342,054 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 06/11/2019 to 08/01/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Revlon Inc (REV)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 538 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $18.94
1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $21.52 or 13.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -24.81%
Volume: 100,900 shares. 3 month avg: 238,602 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/16/2019 to 07/30/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/14/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/12/2019.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Sealed Air Corp (SEE)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 290 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $41.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.47 or 5.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 18.11%
Volume: 1,432,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,419,223 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 07/08/2019 to 07/29/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Stratasys Ltd (SSYS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 296 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $25.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.08 or 16.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 42.87%
Volume: 1,580,900 shares. 3 month avg: 835,520 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 07/01/2019 to 07/26/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Techne Corporation (TECH)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 90 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $210.98
1 Month avg volatility: $3.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $201.35 or 4.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 45.78%
Volume: 184,400 shares. 3 month avg: 150,611 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/12/2019 to 08/01/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Valero Energy (VLO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 346 out of 586
8/1/19 close: $84.34
1 Month avg volatility: $1.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.90 or 5.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.50%
Volume: 4,233,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,584,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/01/2019 to 08/01/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Thursday 8/1/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -1.2% or -99.19 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 118 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 50 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 68 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 57.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 168/306 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 51/103 or 49.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index made a nice plunge late in the trading session, coincidentally at or near the FED announcement to lower interest rates by a quarter point.

I had forgotten about that. The index didn't like what they heard, not so much about the rate cut, but from the silence about future rates cuts.

Nevertheless, the index recovered somewhat by sessions end and yet it drifted lower in the closing minutes.

I'm thinking that momentum will carry the index lower in the morning's session but they recover. But the above prediction says it'll close lower. That could be. Maybe the recovery will start next week.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,670.58    
 Monthly S1  7,922.50  251.92   
 Daily S2  8,004.95  82.45   
 Weekly S2  8,060.43  55.49   
 Daily S1  8,089.68  29.25   
 Low  8,110.02  20.34   
 Weekly S1  8,117.43  7.41   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Monthly Pivot  8,131.07  13.64   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Close  8,174.42  43.35   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,182.53  8.11   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  8,194.76  12.23   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,204.92  10.17   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,227.32  22.40   
 Weekly Pivot  8,228.53  1.21   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  8,279.49  50.96   
 Weekly R1  8,285.53  6.03   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Open  8,290.78  5.25   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  8,299.83  9.05   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Monthly R1  8,382.99  83.16   
 Daily R2  8,384.57  1.58   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Weekly R2  8,396.63  12.07   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R2  8,591.56  194.93   

 
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