As of 04/24/2024   Indus: 38,461 -42.77 -0.1%     Trans: 15,078 -358.61 -2.3%     Utils: 893 +6.79 +0.8%     Nasdaq: 15,713 +16.11 +0.1%     S&P 500: 5,072 +1.08 +0.0%	YTD  +2.0%   -5.2%    +1.3%    +4.7%    +6.3%	Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024     39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/2024   16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024   885 or 850 by 05/01/2024   16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024   5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 4/23/24

As of 04/24/2024   Indus: 38,461 -42.77 -0.1%     Trans: 15,078 -358.61 -2.3%     Utils: 893 +6.79 +0.8%     Nasdaq: 15,713 +16.11 +0.1%     S&P 500: 5,072 +1.08 +0.0%	YTD  +2.0%   -5.2%    +1.3%    +4.7%    +6.3%
Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024     39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/2024   16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024   885 or 850 by 05/01/2024   16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024   5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 4/23/24

Monday 8/31/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily chart.

This chart resembles the chart of the Dow transports a week ago.

There's a flag pattern at C, sitting atop a flagpole which ran from A to B. A nice straight-line run up, in fact...

The index is climbing to D. If you measure the rise from A to B and add it to the low at C, you can get an estimate of where D will be.

In this case, that's 29,800 or about 1,200 points above where the index is now.

That sounds like a tall order to me. I don't know if it'll climb that far.

EF forms a double bottom which confirms when the index closes above the blue line, G. That happens and the index retraces for a period (a throwback to A) before resuming the upward move in earnest.

What I'm saying is that the index should continue higher over the next week.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 95 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ATSG, ALB, ALL, AMED, AEE, AEO, AIG, AAPL, ATR, ARW, ASH, ATO, BLL, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, CALM, CPB, ED, CSOD, CRH, CCK, EXP, EBAY, EL, FMC, FORM, FCX, FRD, GIS, JBHT, IEX, IPI, IVC, JCOM, JNJ, K, LHX, LNC, LOW, MANH, MSFT, MOS, MLI, NOV, PCG, PINC, PGR, PEG, RL, ROK, ROG, SAIA, SIGI, SSYS, TDOC, TSCO, SLCA, UGI, VLO, VMC, WSM, WDAY, IYM, IDU, ICF, IYZ, EWO, EWZ, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, GLD, XLB, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 8/28/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 148 chart and candlestick patterns found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AXDX, AYI, ATSG, ALKS, ADS, AEE, AFG, APH, APA, AAPL, ARCB, ASH, AGO, ADSK, AXS, BLL, BECN, BKNG, BRKS, CDNS, CPB, CF, CIEN, CSCO, CLF, CGNX, COTY, CREE, CRH, CROX, CSGS, CTS, ^DJT, ^DJI, EBAY, EMR, EZPW, FDS, FFG, FEYE, FLEX, FLIR, GIS, GPRO, GGG, EVRG, HOLX, HOV, JBHT, IEX, ITGR, IPI, JCOM, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, KLAC, LAWS, LLY, LNC, LOW, MTSI, MAS, MLHR, NTAP, NKE, NI, OXY, OMC, OMI, PDCO, PYPL, PRFT, PLXS, POR, PINC, PG, KWR, DGX, RJF, ROG, RES, SIGI, SHW, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SSYS, TECH, TPX, TOL, TSCO, TREX, WRB, WAT, WSO, ZBRA, ZBRA, IYK, DDM, BOTZ, ICF, IYZ, SOXX, IYF, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWL, EWU, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, ROBO, IEV, XLP, XLF, XLB, XRT, SMH. Clink this link for details (chart pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 24 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 4.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 8/27/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a red line in three segments following price bottoms. Notice how the curve is bending upward. I wouldn't call it an exponential curve but it might develop into one. Right now, though, it's just a gentle turn.

At the top end of the index is a broadening top chart pattern, shown here in blue. The top slopes upward and the bottom slopes downward with at least five trendline touches of the two trendlines (total). It's a small pattern but it's there.

Those patterns breakout upward 60% of the time which isn't really much above random. Still, that's the way to bet, especially with the index on a tear. But it's Thursday and that means another chance to scare the market with employment numbers.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 38 chart patterns found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALKS, AGO, ATO, BLL, BKNG, BRC, CHS, EZPW, JBHT, IDXX, IPI, MTRX, NFLX, NJR, OUT, PYPL, PINC, PG, ROG, CRM, SIGI, SCS, TECH, WDAY, EWC, ECH, EWM, EWL, PXJ, XLB. Clink this link for details (chart pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 8/26/20. A Look At Indicators

Before I describe the CPI, I want you to know that below I've started including daily patterns found by Patternz and a link to small patterns, too. Click the associated links to be taken to the pattern's you seek. Maybe a stock you own shows a pattern that you've missed.

$ $ $

Above is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator still shows a bearish turn in the index, as the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart shows.

It's been around long enough that it's not going to disappear (which can happen for 7 calendar days). The kicker is, the market is ignoring the signal, at least so far. If you look back to January, a similar signal occurred, so maybe we're looking at the indicator turning back green in a few days.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The more sensitive red line has improved slightly from a week ago. It contradicts what the prior chart shows. However, as I explained, the CPI may turn green (bullish) in a few days, and the markets will continue higher.

However, maybe Thursday's employment news will send jitters into the markets. I guess anything can happen, but I think the charts are pointing to a continued rise.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 29 chart patterns found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ALKS, BLL, BKNG, BBW, CHS, EIGI, XOM, EZPW, FORM, GPS, IPI, KLAC, MSFT, NKE, NUS, OMI, POR, PINC, PG, ROG, SMG, IYM, ECH, EWH, XLB. Clink this link for details (chart pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 8/25/20. Top 10 Best Performing Chart Patterns!

$ $ $

I recently completed a project which updated my research on chart patterns. I'll be updating the website soon to reflect that research.

Here's the top 10 best performing chart patterns in bull markets with upward breakouts on the daily scale. A rank of 1 is best out of 39 chart patterns.

I measured performance from the opening price the day after the breakout to the ultimate high. The ultimate high is the highest high before price drops at least 20% or it's the highest high before price closes below the bottom of the chart pattern.

Failures are a percentage of how many chart patterns failed to see price rise more than 5% after the breakout.

For the complete list of chart patterns, sorted by performance, click here and by failure rate, click here.

This is a table of the top 11 performing chart patterns out of 36, based on downward breakouts in bull markets, on the daily scale. I measured performance from the opening price the day after the breakout to the ultimate low. The ultimate low is the lowest low before price climbs at least 20% or it's the lowest low before price closes above the top of the chart pattern.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 38 chart patterns found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ANIK, ARCB, ARW, AGO, BLL, BIO, CAL, CENX, CHS, CINF, EFX, FEYE, FORM, HSC, JBHT, TILE, NBR, NWL, NKE, OLN, OMI, PDLI, PFG, PG, SMG, SKX, SWX, STMP, SCS, RIG, TZOO, WERN, EWH, IBB. Clink this link for details on patterns in those symbols.

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 8/24/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow transports on the daily chart.

This is an interesting picture but maybe only I think so.

A strong push higher started at A and it peaked at B. The two parallel red lines outline a flag pattern. Don't confuse this with a flag, high and tight.

Anyway, if we consider that the flag appears midway in the uptrend (and it does, but not all of the time. I'd have to look up the exact percentage and I just tucked into bed my other computer), then there's a good move still ahead.

How far?

I'm eyeballing this on the chart, but A looks to be at 9700 and B is at 11,000. The low at C is about 10,700 giving a target of (11,000 - 9700) + 10,700 or 12,000.

Let's be conservative and call it 11,500 and that's if the flag breaks out upward.

$ $ $

Chris Constandse suggested that I list the chart patterns in this post instead of just the total. I implemented that today and you'll see a link below to the text file. Over the past month, I found 124 chart patterns. I'll be changing Friday's list to a separate page like this one, which speeds load times when the list is long.

Thanks for suggesting the idea, Chris!

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

For a list of 124 chart patterns found in the last month, click here.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 8/21/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I released a new version of Patternz. It has some bug fixes but also some improvements that people have asked for, such as 3 new data vendors, all of which you probably should not use. See this link for a comparison of the data vendors. Tiingo and Yahoo remain the best choices.

If you have problems installing the new version over an existing one, then use the patternz.exe program included in the zip file. Replace your existing one with the new one.

Also, this version saves the form location and size. If you flub this somehow (a form becomes invisible), go to the Main form. Select the menu's Help button then Restore Layout to return the form's sizes to their factory defaults.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 2.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/13/2020 and 08/20/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 51 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 462 out of 579

8/20/20 close: $45.52

1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.04 or 5.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -23.42%

Volume: 1,000,500 shares. 3 month avg: 808,385 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 08/11/2020 to 08/20/2020

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.

Average rise: 25%.

Break-even failure rate: 2%.

Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 144 out of 579

8/20/20 close: $11.57

1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.58 or 17.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -30.64%

Volume: 164,400 shares. 3 month avg: 28,538 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/25/2020 to 08/20/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 366 out of 579

8/20/20 close: $74.85

1 Month avg volatility: $3.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $83.97 or 12.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -11.47%

Volume: 7,284,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,330,032 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/19/2020 to 08/19/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 458 out of 579

8/20/20 close: $21.45

1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.72 or 8.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -28.52%

Volume: 97,200 shares. 3 month avg: 73,662 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 08/13/2020 to 08/19/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 23%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 165 out of 579

8/20/20 close: $33.50

1 Month avg volatility: $2.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.90 or 13.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 60.52%

Volume: 109,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,280 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 06/09/2020 to 08/18/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 12/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 80% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 56 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 472 out of 579

8/20/20 close: $67.37

1 Month avg volatility: $2.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.60 or 7.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -24.52%

Volume: 360,100 shares. 3 month avg: 612,354 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 08/13/2020 to 08/20/2020

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.

Average rise: 25%.

Break-even failure rate: 2%.

Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 241 out of 579

8/20/20 close: $337.32

1 Month avg volatility: $6.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $350.31 or 3.9% above the close.

Change YTD: 12.97%

Volume: 2,964,000 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 08/06/2020 to 08/14/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 349 out of 579

8/20/20 close: $8.79

1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.15 or 7.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -20.95%

Volume: 30,500 shares. 3 month avg: 140,617 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 05/14/2020 to 08/20/2020

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 367 out of 579

8/20/20 close: $65.79

1 Month avg volatility: $1.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $71.46 or 8.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -13.40%

Volume: 263,300 shares. 3 month avg: 213,628 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 08/03/2020 to 08/10/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 572 out of 579

8/20/20 close: $1.59

1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.25 or 41.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -76.89%

Volume: 66,068,100 shares. 3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/20/2020 to 08/20/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 254 out of 579

8/20/20 close: $204.15

1 Month avg volatility: $3.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $192.06 or 5.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 8.65%

Volume: 8,802,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 05/18/2020 to 08/19/2020

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 15 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 164 out of 579

8/20/20 close: $294.15

1 Month avg volatility: $3.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $285.09 or 3.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 11.29%

Volume: 145,200 shares. 3 month avg: 82,220 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/19/2020

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Thursday 8/20/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This pic is similar to the one on August 10. In this chart, the index followed the channel in red until it didn't. Price broke out downward today (Wednesday).

In fact, the chart pattern indicator turned bearish today, too, with a reading of 19.1 well below the 35 minimum for bearish signals.

As bad as that looks, the blue line shows support, setup by two peaks. Will the index reach the blue line and turn? My answer is yes (it has already reached it). That's based on the behavior of a measured move down chart pattern, which formed the drop out of the red channel. It predicts a return to the corrective phase. So that means an up move on Thursday, at least for a time. After that? Who knows.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 8/19/20. Indicators Turning Bearish

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I drew two lines, in red, along the peaks to highlight bearish divergence. That happens when the indicator turns down but price continues rising.

It's best if you compare peaks to peaks, as I have in this case.

The CPI at the bottom of the chart shows the right peak lower than the left one. The index at the top of the chart continues to make new highs.

They theory is that the index will follow the indicator downward sooner or later. That's not always true because the last time this happened, the index ignored the divergence (or perhaps the CPI rebounded which it can do in a signal switch for 7 days. So maybe the CPI line started to converge and not diverge).

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

This chart shows a more subtle version of bearish divergence. No peaks to compare.

However, I circled the two areas of interest, in red. The red indicator line is the more sensitive of the two lines (between the red and blue ones, that is). It shows weakness.

The index is flat to slightly up over the same period. So that's more divergence.

The prior chart shows the CPI diving for ground. That's certainly weakness shown even if the divergence doesn't pan out. This chart is also bearish, but not alarmingly so. That's no surprise because the red and blue lines are lagging indicators or even coincident ones. They move almost in lock-step with the index.

Bottom line: A warning of weakness to come.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 8/18/20. Slider Trading Quiz! Dow Chemical

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Dow Chemical stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 8/17/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This turned into an interesting picture when I connected the minor highs with a trendline and the minor lows with another.

The peaks formed nearly a straight line. My original thought was to show how the index has bumped up against a ceiling of resistance. For the last month, it's been riding along the top of that ceiling looking for a way upward.

I think it'll find it.

Along the valleys, I thought of drawing a line connecting the two bottoms in May and June, but decided to use the April valley as the first touch. That worked out well and it shows a chart pattern called an ascending triangle.

Those breakout upward 63% of the time.

If you look closely at the end of the index, it seems to curl downward which might suggest weakness. That could suggest a drop to the bottom of the triangle, but I still think it'll move higher.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 8/14/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 581 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 15 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 21 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/06/2020 and 08/13/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 210 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $165.86

1 Month avg volatility: $2.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $159.29 or 4.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -5.99%

Volume: 2,853,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,950,578 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 531 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $10.70

1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.53 or 10.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -38.11%

Volume: 1,433,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,821,334 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 07/20/2020 to 08/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 540 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $37.79

1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.41 or 9.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -44.22%

Volume: 1,795,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,966,126 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 07/23/2020 to 08/11/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 80% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 21 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 172 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $91.60

1 Month avg volatility: $2.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $84.25 or 8.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 25.41%

Volume: 987,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,363,352 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 15 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 449 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $110.34

1 Month avg volatility: $7.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $125.88 or 14.1% above the close.

Change YTD: 10.26%

Volume: 2,503,000 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/07/2020 to 08/07/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 401 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $9.16

1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.26 or 12.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -45.08%

Volume: 77,400 shares. 3 month avg: 28,538 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 07/08/2020 to 08/12/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 24%.

Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 33 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 572 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $7.37

1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.27 or 14.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -68.97%

Volume: 697,000 shares. 3 month avg: 329,342 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/14/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/14/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 163 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $51.18

1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $53.17 or 3.9% above the close.

Change YTD: 3.56%

Volume: 864,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,769,580 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/16/2020 to 08/11/2020

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 420 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $5.99

1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.33 or 11.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -28.69%

Volume: 8,204,400 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 578 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $4.11

1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.71 or 9.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -63.47%

Volume: 4,141,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,764,371 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 506 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $61.01

1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.48 or 5.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -29.37%

Volume: 147,800 shares. 3 month avg: 293,374 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 15 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 276 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $14.84

1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.30 or 9.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -10.22%

Volume: 5,020,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,815,435 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 07/29/2020 to 08/10/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 34 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 519 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $31.81

1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.48 or 7.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -36.09%

Volume: 1,211,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,457,883 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 360 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $18.87

1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.77 or 11.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -12.19%

Volume: 87,500 shares. 3 month avg: 163,711 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/08/2020 to 08/13/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 520 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $67.22

1 Month avg volatility: $2.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.11 or 7.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -39.38%

Volume: 79,600 shares. 3 month avg: 141,669 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 517 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $1.94

1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.32 or 31.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -53.81%

Volume: 1,083,600 shares. 3 month avg: 278,209 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 07/10/2020 to 08/13/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (Central)

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 395 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $24.35

1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.03 or 5.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -12.54%

Volume: 2,310,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,389,146 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/22/2020 to 08/13/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 480 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $16.70

1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.63 or 6.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -25.35%

Volume: 1,116,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,253,378 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 413 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $78.49

1 Month avg volatility: $1.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $84.03 or 7.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -12.72%

Volume: 1,415,400 shares. 3 month avg: 665,203 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 07/23/2020 to 08/11/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 137 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $121.75

1 Month avg volatility: $3.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $127.91 or 5.1% above the close.

Change YTD: 14.01%

Volume: 649,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,490,418 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 07/20/2020 to 08/03/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 7%.

Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 295 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $56.39

1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.90 or 6.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -10.70%

Volume: 775,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,012,069 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 33 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $130.74

1 Month avg volatility: $4.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $121.05 or 7.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 40.40%

Volume: 215,600 shares. 3 month avg: 163,825 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 43 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 410 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $55.01

1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $52.18 or 5.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -13.64%

Volume: 3,913,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,514,520 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/16/2020 to 08/13/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 537 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $34.71

1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.14 or 7.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -35.70%

Volume: 8,378,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,071,869 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 390 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $60.21

1 Month avg volatility: $1.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.74 or 5.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -24.12%

Volume: 33,800 shares. 3 month avg: 37,109 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 80 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $47.39

1 Month avg volatility: $1.74. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.09 or 7.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 14.39%

Volume: 43,800 shares. 3 month avg: 37,286 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/12/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 336 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $119.27

1 Month avg volatility: $2.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $111.74 or 6.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -12.91%

Volume: 896,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,525,757 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 268 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $197.58

1 Month avg volatility: $3.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $189.39 or 4.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 5.15%

Volume: 6,946,400 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 05/18/2020 to 08/13/2020

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 59

Stock RS rank: 321 out of 579

8/13/20 close: $129.64

1 Month avg volatility: $3.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $122.37 or 5.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -9.97%

Volume: 458,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,153,271 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/27/2020 to 08/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Thursday 8/13/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I know I tried this before, recently, but don't think I checked to see how it worked. Anyway, look at the rectangle bottom, which is the pattern outlined by the two horizontal red lines at AB.

At B, the pattern broke out downward. At C, it busted the downward breakout. Usually what follows is a robust move higher. But not this time. Hmm.

Here's what I was referring to. Notice how far down the index dropped below the bottom trendline at B. If we take that drop, we can add it to the top of the rectangle to balance out that drop. That would put it close to 11,100.

It's a variation of the trendline measure rule. So far, the index hasn't climbed far enough yet. So maybe we're due for a higher move.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 8/12/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The same bullish green bar on the far right of the chart is still there. However, look at the thin blue indicator line.

It's turning down. Market weakness. That's what it means. You can see two valleys ago that just because the indicator says the market is weak, it won't necessarily change the signal.

I think we'll have to wait another week to see if the weakness persists.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both red and blue lines show modest improvement this week over last week. The lines uptrends continue, though.

There's no sign of divergence. No dry cough or fever, so probably not covid either. It just looks bullish.

The prior chart is bullish but showing signs of stress. This chart is happy. So let's just call the direction for the next week as undecided. I suspect the indices will be moving up, but a bad jobs report on Thursday could scuttle things. So could lots of other national news.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 8/11/20. Slider Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider quiz featuring broadening bottoms.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 8/10/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is the S&P 500 index on the daily chart.

Not much new here compared to the last time we looked at this chart.

AB is a double bottom chart pattern which confirmed when price closed above the top of the pattern. The index has followed a channel upward, to C, so that was a nice move.

As you can see, the index is at the top of the channel now (shown as the two parallel red lines), suggesting a drop to the bottom of the channel. I don't know if that'll happen or not. The index might just keep sliding along the top trendline. That happens sometimes. In fact, you can see that happened at the last, top, trendline touch in mid July.

I drew a horizontal blue line which I view as overhead resistance to the upward move. That might have a say in how far the index rises.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 8/7/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 580 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/30/2020 and 08/06/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Chemical (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 121 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $282.99

1 Month avg volatility: $6.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $268.54 or 5.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 20.43%

Volume: 1,168,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,051,743 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending and inverted continuation pattern from 06/24/2020 to 08/04/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 43%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 61% of the time.

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 93 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $25.28

1 Month avg volatility: $0.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.33 or 7.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 7.76%

Volume: 1,184,100 shares. 3 month avg: 530,657 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 07/17/2020 to 08/06/2020

Breakout is upward 80% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 36 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $60.19

1 Month avg volatility: $2.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.62 or 15.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 40.07%

Volume: 891,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/31/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 196 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $49.88

1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.74 or 3.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 0.93%

Volume: 1,249,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,769,580 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/16/2020 to 08/06/2020

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 89 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $2.85

1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.31 or 18.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 21.79%

Volume: 3,084,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,160 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Big W reversal pattern from 07/20/2020 to 07/31/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 71% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Throwbacks occur 32% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 42% of the time.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 134 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $343.31

1 Month avg volatility: $5.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $331.45 or 3.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 16.80%

Volume: 2,092,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,225,345 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Measured move up from 06/25/2020 to 08/06/2020

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 123 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $8.96

1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.60 or 15.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 12.78%

Volume: 13,378,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/11/2020 to 08/06/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 05/13/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/12/2020 and a 38% chance by 11/11/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 483 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $65.79

1 Month avg volatility: $2.38. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.06 or 9.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -26.29%

Volume: 1,164,500 shares. 3 month avg: 612,354 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 07/21/2020 to 08/05/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (Central)

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 379 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $65.56

1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.88 or 7.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -16.82%

Volume: 56,700 shares. 3 month avg: 83,160 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/17/2020 to 08/06/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 559 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $51.78

1 Month avg volatility: $4.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.99 or 20.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -64.04%

Volume: 839,600 shares. 3 month avg: 10,861,705 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 07/14/2020 to 08/05/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/05/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/03/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 213 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $100.45

1 Month avg volatility: $1.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $96.41 or 4.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.85%

Volume: 4,060,300 shares. 3 month avg: 10,538,462 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/23/2020 to 08/04/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 139 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $265.88

1 Month avg volatility: $6.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $245.43 or 7.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 14.98%

Volume: 679,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,496,697 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 07/13/2020 to 08/04/2020

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 418 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $56.45

1 Month avg volatility: $1.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.81 or 5.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -28.86%

Volume: 43,900 shares. 3 month avg: 37,109 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/11/2020 to 08/06/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 40 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $202.26

1 Month avg volatility: $4.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $189.04 or 6.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 45.30%

Volume: 465,700 shares. 3 month avg: 998,728 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/19/2020 to 08/06/2020

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 6 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $212.50

1 Month avg volatility: $12.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $245.55 or 15.6% above the close.

Change YTD: 153.82%

Volume: 10,335,700 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 08/05/2020 to 08/05/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 90 out of 575

8/6/20 close: $303.00

1 Month avg volatility: $6.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $286.50 or 5.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 30.02%

Volume: 709,100 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/09/2020 to 07/31/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Thursday 8/6/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Bullish!

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale but only for the last 5 days, instead of the usual 10.

On the left is a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. The left shoulder is marked L, head is H, right shoulder is R. The pattern confirmed and led to a nice rally.

The blue pattern might look like a broadening pattern, right-angled and ascending, but I didn't draw it that way. There's too much white space in the middle. I just wanted to emphasize how the index has moved horizontally over the last 2 days.

Today, the red pattern, is an ascending triangle. Notice at the end of the pattern price has broken out downward. It might be hard to see, but it's there.

If you were to look at the 2 day chart, 5 min scale, you'd see that it actually broke out upward around 2:30, then downward, only to rise to the close just shy of 11,000. From 2:30 on, it takes on the shape of a broadening formation, right-angled and descending.

The breakout from these patterns is upward 63% of the time, so that's the direction I expect.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 8/5/20. Indicators: Bullish

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bullish trend remains intact, despite a bearish signal appearing a week ago. That signal disappeared when more bullish patterns came on scene.

You can see the dip in the CPI line at the bottom of the chart. It didn't make it down to 35 to signal a bearish trend change. So the chart remains bullish.

However, the index has made a higher peak (it's not completed) but the indicator has not. That's bearish divergence. Nothing to worry about because the CPI line might still form a higher peak, but it does need monitoring.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines show improvement from a week ago and they continue to show it week after week.

I don't see any divergence here. I don't see any failure swings. So the two charts are bullish and may remain that way for another week.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 8/4/20. Slider Trading Quiz: Cypress Semiconductor

$ $ $

I show a slider trading quiz featuring Cypress Semiconductor stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 8/3/20. 2020 Market Forecast August Update

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for August, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 31 July 2020 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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