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 As of 12/01/2020   Indus: 29,824 +185.28 +0.6%     Trans: 12,494 +43.57 +0.3%     Utils: 868 +6.51 +0.8%     Nasdaq: 12,355 +156.37 +1.3%     S&P 500: 3,662 +40.82 +1.1% YTD  +4.5%    +14.6%   -1.2%    +37.7%    +13.4% Overview: 11/30/2020     30,700 or 28,250 by 12/15/2020   13,500 or 11,700 by 12/15/2020   830 or 925 by 12/15/2020   12,500 or 11,400 by 12/15/2020   3,750 or 3,400 by 12/15/2020 CPI (updated daily): on 11/2/20
 As of 12/01/2020   Indus: 29,824 +185.28 +0.6%     Trans: 12,494 +43.57 +0.3%     Utils: 868 +6.51 +0.8%     Nasdaq: 12,355 +156.37 +1.3%     S&P 500: 3,662 +40.82 +1.1% YTD  +4.5%    +14.6%   -1.2%    +37.7%    +13.4% Overview: 11/30/2020     30,700 or 28,250 by 12/15/2020   13,500 or 11,700 by 12/15/2020   830 or 925 by 12/15/2020   12,500 or 11,400 by 12/15/2020   3,750 or 3,400 by 12/15/2020 CPI (updated daily): on 11/2/20

## Wednesday 9/30/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Look at the chart of the indicator. Do the two red lines mean divergence?

Answer: No. It's convergence. The two trends are in synch, at least for now.

The bearish turn down is obvious, so that is not good for long-sided traders or investors. However, as we have seen before, the indicator has hit bottom and is waiting to rebound. One large move up in the index could flip the indicator to neutral or bullish.

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The red bars show that the bears are in control.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

## Tuesday 9/29/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -1.9% or -312.78 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 96 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 0.7% on 54 occasions.
Average loss was -1.5% on 42 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 97/165 or 58.8% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/51 or 52.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

\$ \$ \$

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

I took today's price action and copied it, then flipped it horizontally so that it curves upward.

This is a possibility, only a possibility, of what will happen Tuesday.

The large swings that we have seen in the markets is getting tiring. The swings make it hard to predict where the index will go in the future, but that was never easy, of course.

Still, if fears of China would subside, then the markets would recover, so that's why I remain bullish.

\$ \$ \$

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 © 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric Value Diff Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? Monthly S2 14,500.61 Monthly S1 15,251.25 750.64 Weekly S2 15,636.71 385.46 Daily S2 15,767.59 130.88 Weekly S1 15,819.30 51.71 Daily S1 15,884.74 65.44 Low 15,981.85 97.11 Close 16,001.89 20.04 Yes! The Close is close to the Low. Daily Pivot 16,099.00 97.11 61.8% Down from Intraday High 16,108.45 9.45 Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. Monthly Pivot 16,120.97 12.52 Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. 50% Down from Intraday High 16,147.55 26.58 Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot. 38.2% Down from Intraday High 16,186.66 39.11 Weekly Pivot 16,198.95 12.29 Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. Daily R1 16,216.15 17.20 Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot. Open 16,313.26 97.11 High 16,313.26 0.00 Yes! The High is close to the Open. Weekly R1 16,381.54 68.28 Daily R2 16,430.41 48.87 Weekly R2 16,761.19 330.78 Monthly R1 16,871.61 110.42 Monthly R2 17,741.33 869.72

## My Prediction

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I drew to red lines along the peaks and valleys.

Do you know what chart pattern it forms?

This chart pattern breaks out upward 79% of the time.

As you can see, the index close below the bottom trendline, signaling a downward breakout.

We'll see if the index drops to the bottom red line (imagine it extended downward).

## A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 125.61 points.
Tuesday: Down 179.72 points.
Wednesday: Down 50.58 points.
Thursday: Down 78.57 points.
Friday: Up 113.35 points.

### For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 69.91 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 140.73 points or 2.9%.
The S&P 500 index was down 26.69 points or 1.4%.

### Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
11.1% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
6.1% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
10.4% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
9.2% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
9.5% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
3.4% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

## Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

 Report Time A-FRating Description Personal income & consumption 8:30 M C+ Measures sources of income to predict future demand. Personal consumption expenditures 8:30 M C+ Covers durables, non-durables, and services. Consumer confidence 10:00 T B- Surveys 5,000 households for trends. Chicago purchasing managers index 9:45 W B Monitors regional manufacturing activity. Crude inventories 10:30 W ? My guess: Measures oil inventory. Initial jobless claims 8:30 Th C+ Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits. Construction spending 10:00 Th D Covers residential/non-residential/public spending on new construction. Auto & truck sales 5:00 Th C- Monthly sales of domestically produced vehicles. 4 Employment reports 8:30 F A Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg workweek, hourly earnings. Factory orders 10:00 F D+ Durable/non-durable goods orders w/factory inventories.

## Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

## Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/25/2015, the CPI had:

27 bearish patterns,
10 bullish patterns,
183 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 27.0%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

 Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily 16,068 16,191 16,328 16,452 16,588 Weekly 15,741 16,028 16,303 16,590 16,865 Monthly 14,605 15,460 16,225 17,080 17,846 S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily 1,904 1,918 1,935 1,949 1,967 Weekly 1,869 1,900 1,940 1,971 2,011 Monthly 1,777 1,854 1,944 2,021 2,111 Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily 4,585 4,636 4,710 4,761 4,836 Weekly 4,521 4,604 4,742 4,825 4,964 Monthly 3,978 4,332 4,647 5,001 5,315
• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

## Consecutive Price Trends

 Index ConsecutiveCloses So Far % Comments Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 15.9% Expect a reversal soon. 2 months down 11.0% Expect a reversal soon. S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 14.6% Expect a reversal soon. 2 months down 11.3% Expect a reversal soon. Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 30.0% The trend may continue. 2 months down 15.9% Expect a reversal soon.

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

## Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name 23 Pipe bottom 19 Triangle, symmetrical 7 Double Top, Adam and Adam 6 Triple top 5 Head-and-shoulders bottom 5 Broadening bottom 4 Triangle, descending 4 Pipe top 4 Triple bottom 3 Diamond bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

 This Week Last Week 1. Shoe 1. Shoe 2. Internet 2. Internet 3. Short ETFs 3. Cement and Aggregates 4. Insurance (Life) 4. Short ETFs 5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty) 5. Furn/Home Furnishings 50. Semiconductor 50. Chemical (Basic) 51. Petroleum (Integrated) 51. Semiconductor Cap Equip. 52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment 52. Petroleum (Integrated) 53. Chemical (Basic) 53. Semiconductor 54. Petroleum (Producing) 54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

## Friday 9/25/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 580 stocks searched, or 2.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 Symbol Chart Pattern BullishBearish Start End Industry ADS Triangle, descending 09/01/2015 09/24/2015 Information Services ARWR Flag, high and tight 08/24/2015 09/24/2015 Biotechnology AXS Triangle, descending 08/26/2015 09/23/2015 Insurance (Prop/Casualty) BCPC Triangle, symmetrical 06/22/2015 09/24/2015 Chemical (Specialty) BLDR Pipe top 09/08/2015 09/14/2015 Retail Building Supply CAL Diamond top 07/27/2015 09/24/2015 Shoe EL Triangle, symmetrical 08/24/2015 09/24/2015 Toiletries/Cosmetics GFF Triangle, symmetrical 08/25/2015 09/21/2015 Building Materials MRO Triangle, symmetrical 08/12/2015 09/23/2015 Petroleum (Integrated) PES Triangle, symmetrical 08/12/2015 09/23/2015 Oilfield Svcs/Equipment RES Triangle, symmetrical 08/12/2015 09/23/2015 Oilfield Svcs/Equipment SCCO Pipe top 09/08/2015 09/14/2015 Metals and Mining (Div.) SMRT Triangle, descending 08/20/2015 09/24/2015 Apparel TGT Triangle, ascending 08/28/2015 09/24/2015 Retail Store TZOO Double Top, Adam and Adam 08/31/2015 09/18/2015 Internet SSG Pipe bottom 09/08/2015 09/14/2015 Short ETFs

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/17/2015 and 09/24/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.

Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 343 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$254.02
1 Month avg volatility: \$5.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): \$265.80 or 4.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.20%
Volume: 582,600 shares. 3 month avg: 477,732 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 09/01/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 94 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$7.19
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$6.02 or 16.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.57%
Volume: 22,477,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,570,868 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Axis Capital Holdings Ltd (AXS)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$54.98
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): \$57.44 or 4.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.61%
Volume: 501,800 shares. 3 month avg: 604,729 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/26/2015 to 09/23/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Balchem Corp (BCPC)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 77 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$60.02
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$54.88 or 8.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.93%
Volume: 164,700 shares. 3 month avg: 162,366 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/22/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 1 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$14.49
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): \$16.17 or 11.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 110.92%
Volume: 1,660,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,298,922 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/08/2015 to 09/14/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 151 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$31.80
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.97. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): \$34.45 or 8.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -1.09%
Volume: 266,600 shares. 3 month avg: 250,554 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/27/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Estee Lauder, Cos (EL)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 236 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$78.54
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$74.08 or 5.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.07%
Volume: 1,696,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,014,485 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 261 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$15.74
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$14.92 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.35%
Volume: 172,100 shares. 3 month avg: 185,211 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/25/2015 to 09/21/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Marathon Oil (MRO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 548 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$15.45
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$13.31 or 13.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -45.39%
Volume: 12,052,600 shares. 3 month avg: 13,332,923 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/12/2015 to 09/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Pioneer Energy Services (PES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 562 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$2.48
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$1.81 or 27.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -55.23%
Volume: 1,055,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,307,872 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/12/2015 to 09/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

RPC Inc (RES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 421 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$10.29
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$8.88 or 13.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.09%
Volume: 1,022,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,979,503 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/12/2015 to 09/23/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Southern Copper (SCCO)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 294 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$26.86
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): \$28.89 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.75%
Volume: 1,685,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,952,588 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 09/08/2015 to 09/14/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 426 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$10.21
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): \$11.02 or 7.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -30.16%
Volume: 128,500 shares. 3 month avg: 146,157 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/20/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Target (TGT)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 198 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$79.06
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$75.03 or 5.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.15%
Volume: 3,934,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,964,538 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 08/28/2015 to 09/24/2015
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 336 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$8.49
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): \$9.43 or 11.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -32.73%
Volume: 68,100 shares. 3 month avg: 125,106 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/31/2015 to 09/18/2015
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

UltraShort 2x Semiconductor ProShares (SSG)
Industry: Short ETFs
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 42 out of 572
9/24/15 close: \$58.28
1 Month avg volatility: \$2.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$53.61 or 8.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 21.87%
Volume: 17,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,683 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 09/08/2015 to 09/14/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

## Thursday 9/24/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -3.98 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 539 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 0.7% on 294 occasions.
Average loss was -0.9% on 245 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 93/156 or 59.6% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/66 or 48.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

\$ \$ \$

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A terrific looking symmetrical triangle appears highlighted here in red.

I drew the bottom line longer to connect another point at the start, but if you ignore that, it's a fine specimen.

According to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second Edition, pictured on the right, the pattern breaks out upward 54% of the time on the daily charts. That's about random.

If I had to guess as to the breakout direction, it would be upward. based on the upward tilt of the pattern.

\$ \$ \$

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 © 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric Value Diff Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? Monthly S2 3,911.97 Monthly S1 4,332.36 420.38 Weekly S2 4,665.11 332.75 Weekly S1 4,708.92 43.82 Daily S2 4,710.66 1.74 Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1. Monthly Pivot 4,712.52 1.86 Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2. Daily S1 4,731.70 19.18 Low 4,735.13 3.43 Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1. 61.8% Down from Intraday High 4,752.51 17.38 Close 4,752.74 0.23 Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. Daily Pivot 4,756.17 3.43 Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close. 50% Down from Intraday High 4,757.88 1.71 Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. 38.2% Down from Intraday High 4,763.26 5.37 Open 4,764.69 1.43 Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. Daily R1 4,777.21 12.52 High 4,780.64 3.43 Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1. Daily R2 4,801.68 21.04 Weekly Pivot 4,834.90 33.22 Weekly R1 4,878.71 43.82 Weekly R2 5,004.69 125.97 Monthly R1 5,132.91 128.22 Monthly R2 5,513.07 380.17

## Wednesday 9/23/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows bearish divergence but it's a bit late in my announcing it here. The index has already dropped.

I looked back at August and the indicator predicted a bullish turn because of bullish divergence. That never occurred. So divergence, like other tools, work only some of the time.

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

## Tuesday 9/22/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index climbed by 0.8% or 125.61 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 560 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 0.6% on 308 occasions.
Average loss was -0.7% on 252 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 97/164 or 59.1% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/51 or 52.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

\$ \$ \$

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The Dow over the last two days has constructed a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. I show it here with the left shoulder (L), right shoulder (R), and head.

Since the neckline joining the two armpits slopes upward, the correct buy point is the red line at A. A close above that line is a buy signal.

So far, however, we are looking at squiggles on the price chart since the head-and-shoulders has not confirmed as a valid pattern. It will only become valid when price closes above A.

\$ \$ \$

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 © 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric Value Diff Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? Monthly S2 14,284.90 Monthly S1 15,397.55 1,112.64 Weekly S2 15,988.94 591.39 Weekly S1 16,249.56 260.63 Daily S2 16,306.84 57.27 Low 16,391.88 85.04 Open 16,406.10 14.22 Yes! The Open is close to the Low. Daily S1 16,408.51 2.41 Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open. 61.8% Down from Intraday High 16,463.21 54.69 Monthly Pivot 16,482.97 19.77 50% Down from Intraday High 16,485.24 2.27 Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot. Daily Pivot 16,493.56 8.32 Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High. 38.2% Down from Intraday High 16,507.27 13.72 Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. Close 16,510.19 2.92 Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. High 16,578.60 68.41 Weekly Pivot 16,591.50 12.90 Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High. Daily R1 16,595.23 3.74 Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot. Daily R2 16,680.28 85.04 Weekly R1 16,852.12 171.85 Weekly R2 17,194.06 341.93 Monthly R1 17,595.62 401.56 Monthly R2 18,681.04 1,085.43

## My Prediction

I show the Dow utility index on the daily scale.

This chart doesn't show what I want to discuss, so I made a smaller picture, shown here in red.

The other major indices have hit bottom and bounced. Many have formed symmetrical triangles with an upward breakout. Now the indices are throwing back to the chart pattern.

What does that mean?

Look at the little red picture. The box represents the symmetrical triangle. After that, the index rises to A. That move has already happened.

The index is on the way to B now. After that, look for the index to resume its rise.

## A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 62.13 points.
Tuesday: Up 228.89 points.
Wednesday: Up 140.1 points.
Thursday: Down 65.21 points.
Friday: Down 290.16 points.

### For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 48.51 points or 0.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 4.89 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 3.02 points or 0.2%.

### Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
10.7% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
6.6% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
7.7% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
12.5% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
8.3% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
4.9% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

## Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

 Report Time A-FRating Description Existing home sales 10:00 M C Counts sales of used homes. Crude inventories 10:30 W ? My guess: Measures oil inventory. Initial jobless claims 8:30 Th C+ Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits. Durable goods orders 8:30 Th B Measures orders, shipments of goods with lifespans >3 years. New home sales 10:00 Th C+ Shows sales of single-family homes. Gross domestic product 8:30 F B Measures economic activity; GDP deflator measures inflation. Michigan sentiment 10:00 F B- Consumer sentiment: Measures strength of consumer spending.

## Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

## Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 09/18/2015, the CPI had:

85 bearish patterns,
1 bullish patterns,
232 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 1.2%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

 Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily 16,137 16,261 16,468 16,592 16,799 Weekly 15,947 16,166 16,550 16,768 17,152 Monthly 14,243 15,314 16,441 17,512 18,639 S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily 1,931 1,944 1,967 1,981 2,003 Weekly 1,903 1,931 1,976 2,003 2,048 Monthly 1,740 1,849 1,976 2,085 2,213 Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily 4,782 4,805 4,842 4,864 4,901 Weekly 4,690 4,759 4,860 4,928 5,030 Monthly 3,937 4,382 4,737 5,183 5,538
• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

## Consecutive Price Trends

 Index ConsecutiveCloses So Far % Comments Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 28.4% The trend may continue. 2 months down 11.0% Expect a reversal soon. S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 26.8% The trend may continue. 2 months down 11.3% Expect a reversal soon. Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks up 31.1% The trend may continue. 1 month up 47.9% Expect a random direction.

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

## Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

 This Week Last Week 1. Shoe 1. Shoe 2. Internet 2. Internet 3. Cement and Aggregates 3. Furn/Home Furnishings 4. Short ETFs 4. Cement and Aggregates 5. Furn/Home Furnishings 5. Short ETFs 50. Chemical (Basic) 50. Semiconductor Cap Equip. 51. Semiconductor Cap Equip. 51. Chemical (Basic) 52. Petroleum (Integrated) 52. Toiletries/Cosmetics 53. Semiconductor 53. Semiconductor 54. Petroleum (Producing) 54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

## Friday 9/18/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 580 stocks searched, or 2.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 0 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 Symbol Chart Pattern BullishBearish Start End Industry FDX Broadening bottom 08/27/2015 09/16/2015 Air Transport FLIR Diamond bottom 08/28/2015 09/16/2015 Aerospace/Defense HGG Flag, high and tight 07/28/2015 09/15/2015 Retail (Special Lines) LAWS Head-and-shoulders bottom 08/26/2015 09/11/2015 Metal Fabricating L Triangle, symmetrical 08/24/2015 09/17/2015 Insurance (Prop/Casualty) ASGN Triple bottom 08/26/2015 09/11/2015 Human Resources STR Triple bottom 08/26/2015 09/11/2015 Natural Gas (Diversified) RDC Head-and-shoulders bottom 08/04/2015 09/11/2015 Oilfield Svcs/Equipment SEE Triangle, symmetrical 08/24/2015 09/17/2015 Packaging and Container ABCO Triangle, symmetrical 09/01/2015 09/16/2015 Information Services UGI Triple bottom 08/24/2015 09/11/2015 Natural Gas (Distributor) VVUS Flag, high and tight 08/24/2015 09/11/2015 Biotechnology UNG Broadening bottom 08/24/2015 09/17/2015 Natural Gas (Diversified)

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/10/2015 and 09/17/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.

FedEx (FDX)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 399 out of 572
9/17/15 close: \$149.49
1 Month avg volatility: \$4.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$139.69 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.92%
Volume: 2,879,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,899,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/27/2015 to 09/16/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 335 out of 572
9/17/15 close: \$28.66
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$27.33 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.30%
Volume: 1,327,400 shares. 3 month avg: 799,189 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 08/28/2015 to 09/16/2015
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

hhgregg, Inc (HGG)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 325 out of 572
9/17/15 close: \$5.61
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$4.97 or 11.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.89%
Volume: 94,400 shares. 3 month avg: 204,557 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 07/28/2015 to 09/15/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Lawson Products (LAWS)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 244 out of 572
9/17/15 close: \$23.76
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$20.92 or 12.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.08%
Volume: 18,600 shares. 3 month avg: 52,092 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2015 to 09/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Loews Corp (L)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 572
9/17/15 close: \$36.27
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$34.87 or 3.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -13.68%
Volume: 1,302,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,658,911 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/17/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

On Assignment, Inc. (ASGN)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 237 out of 572
9/17/15 close: \$37.07
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$35.22 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.69%
Volume: 195,700 shares. 3 month avg: 383,925 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2015 to 09/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Questar Corp. (STR)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 465 out of 572
9/17/15 close: \$19.26
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$18.19 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.81%
Volume: 1,332,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,436,442 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/26/2015 to 09/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Rowan Companies (RDC)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 239 out of 572
9/17/15 close: \$18.30
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$16.21 or 11.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.53%
Volume: 2,727,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,803,008 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/04/2015 to 09/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Sealed Air Corp (SEE)
Industry: Packaging and Container
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 69 out of 572
9/17/15 close: \$51.25
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$48.81 or 4.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 20.79%
Volume: 2,078,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,293,689 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/17/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 301 out of 572
9/17/15 close: \$48.44
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$45.55 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.10%
Volume: 153,100 shares. 3 month avg: 411,143 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 09/01/2015 to 09/16/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/04/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/03/2015 and a 38% chance by 02/02/2016.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

UGI Corp. (UGI)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 132 out of 572
9/17/15 close: \$34.45
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$32.67 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.29%
Volume: 499,200 shares. 3 month avg: 815,538 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/11/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 37%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Vivus Inc (VVUS)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 561 out of 572
9/17/15 close: \$1.61
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$1.26 or 21.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -44.10%
Volume: 2,521,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,492,931 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/11/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/06/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/05/2015 and a 38% chance by 02/04/2016.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 411 out of 572
9/17/15 close: \$12.56
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$11.97 or 4.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.96%
Volume: 4,335,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,856,278 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/17/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

## Thursday 9/17/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.6% or 28.72 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 462 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 0.7% on 286 occasions.
Average loss was -0.8% on 176 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 61.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 92/155 or 59.4% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/66 or 48.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

\$ \$ \$

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The symmetrical triangle outlined here in red broke out upward.

Now the index is following a channel. If it remains within that channel, look for the index to drop a bit, hitting the bottom of that channel and then rise again to the top.

My guess is that the FOMC rate decision will cause the index to break out upward from the channel tomorrow (Thursday), but as I said, it's only a guess. I just think the markets will like what happens at the meeting.

\$ \$ \$

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 © 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric Value Diff Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? Monthly S2 3,944.29 Monthly S1 4,416.76 472.48 Weekly S2 4,716.52 299.76 Monthly Pivot 4,764.62 48.10 Weekly S1 4,802.88 38.26 Daily S2 4,831.65 28.77 Weekly Pivot 4,832.88 1.23 Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2. Low 4,848.15 15.27 Open 4,860.43 12.28 Daily S1 4,860.45 0.02 Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open. 61.8% Down from Intraday High 4,865.45 5.00 50% Down from Intraday High 4,870.79 5.34 38.2% Down from Intraday High 4,876.14 5.34 Daily Pivot 4,876.94 0.80 Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. Close 4,889.24 12.30 High 4,893.44 4.20 Yes! The High is close to the Close. Daily R1 4,905.74 12.30 Weekly R1 4,919.24 13.50 Daily R2 4,922.23 2.99 Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1. Weekly R2 4,949.24 27.01 Monthly R1 5,237.09 287.85 Monthly R2 5,584.95 347.85

## Wednesday 9/16/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The index has formed a symmetrical triangle, outlined here in red.

The indicator suggests an upward breakout since it is trending upward. But let's look at the next chart.

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The two green bars on the far right signal a bullish trend is in place.

That could change, of course, if the index were to make a large drop. If the FED were to raise interest rates, it might spur such selling.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

## Tuesday 9/15/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -0.4% or -62.13 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 877 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 0.7% on 445 occasions.
Average loss was -0.6% on 432 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/163 or 58.9% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/51 or 52.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

\$ \$ \$

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

This is one of the best intraday symmetrical triangles that I've seen. I show the pattern here, outlined in red.

Notice how the pattern bounces from side to side and it continues this over three days.

Unfortunately, the triangle does not give us a clue as to the breakout direction. What I can say with assurance is that the breakout will come soon, perhaps as soon as Tuesday (I'm writing this on Monday evening).

I claim that because the narrowing of the triangle suggests a move soon, just not the direction it will take.

\$ \$ \$

I flushed my water heater this morning. I do that once a year to clear the cottage cheese-looking stuff that gathers in the bottom of the tank. If you haven't flushed yours, consider doing it. It's easy enough to do. For electric heaters, be sure to turn off the power at the circuit breaker. When you're done, getting the air out of the lines is a real gas.

\$ \$ \$

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 © 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric Value Diff Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? Monthly S2 14,198.01 Monthly S1 15,284.48 1,086.48 Weekly S2 15,827.13 542.64 Weekly S1 16,099.04 271.92 Daily S2 16,264.24 165.20 Daily S1 16,317.60 53.36 Low 16,330.87 13.27 Close 16,370.96 40.09 61.8% Down from Intraday High 16,376.71 5.75 Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close. Weekly Pivot 16,381.85 5.14 Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. Daily Pivot 16,384.23 2.38 Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot. 50% Down from Intraday High 16,390.87 6.63 Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. 38.2% Down from Intraday High 16,405.02 14.16 Daily R1 16,437.59 32.57 High 16,450.86 13.27 Open 16,450.86 0.00 Yes! The Open is close to the High. Monthly Pivot 16,456.81 5.95 Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Open. Daily R2 16,504.22 47.41 Weekly R1 16,653.76 149.54 Weekly R2 16,936.57 282.80 Monthly R1 17,543.28 606.72 Monthly R2 18,715.61 1,172.32

## My Prediction

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily chart.

A symmetrical triangle appears highlighted in red, at A. What direction will the breakout take?

Answer: Based on the chart pattern indicator, the breakout will be downward. That's because the indicator turned bearish on Friday.

If the index were to break out upward from the symmetrical triangle, then it would bump up against overhead resistance shown here as a blue line. That line is just the start of resistance. Resistance continues upward from there.

## A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Up 390.3 points.
Wednesday: Down 239.11 points.
Thursday: Up 76.83 points.
Friday: Up 102.69 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

### For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 330.71 points or 2.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 138.42 points or 3.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 39.83 points or 2.1%.

### Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
10.5% down from the high of 18,351.36 on 05/19/2015.
6.9% up from the low of 15,370.33 on 08/24/2015.
Nasdaq
7.8% down from the high of 5,231.94 on 07/20/2015.
12.4% up from the low of 4,292.14 on 08/24/2015.
S&P 500
8.1% down from the high of 2,134.72 on 05/20/2015.
5.0% up from the low of 1,867.01 on 08/24/2015.

## Economic Reports

The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.

 Report Time A-FRating Description Retail sales 8:30 T A- Reports total retail sales (not services). Are people spending? Industrial production 9:15 T B- Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers. Capacity utilization 9:15 T B- Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation. Business inventories 10:00 T C- Reports manufacturing, wholesale, retail inventories. Consumer price index 8:30 W B+ Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services. Crude inventories 10:30 W ? My guess: Measures oil inventory. Initial jobless claims 8:30 Th C+ Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits. Housing starts 8:30 Th B- Number of homes beginning construction. Building permits 8:30 Th B- Measures building permits for new construction. FOMC Rate decision 2:00 Th? ? The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes. Leading indicators 10:00 F D- Summary of already known reports.

## Options Expiration

The following is courtesy of the Options Industry Council.

 Option Date VIX expires Wednesday A.M. settled index options cease trading. Thursday Expiring equity and P.M. settled index options cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST. Friday Equity, index, and cash-settled currency options expire Friday

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

## Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

 Index S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily 16,181 16,307 16,371 16,497 16,561 Weekly 15,848 16,140 16,403 16,695 16,957 Monthly 14,219 15,326 16,478 17,585 18,736 S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily 1,932 1,946 1,954 1,968 1,976 Weekly 1,898 1,929 1,959 1,991 2,020 Monthly 1,739 1,850 1,978 2,089 2,216 Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily 4,743 4,783 4,803 4,842 4,862 Weekly 4,694 4,758 4,811 4,875 4,927 Monthly 3,922 4,372 4,742 5,192 5,563
• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

## Consecutive Price Trends

 Index ConsecutiveCloses So Far % Comments Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 43.0% Expect a random direction. 2 months down 11.0% Expect a reversal soon. S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.1% Expect a random direction. 2 months down 11.3% Expect a reversal soon. Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 43.4% Expect a random direction. 1 month up 47.9% Expect a random direction.

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

This indicator warns of an index moving into or out of a bear market. It's based on a 12-month simple moving average of monthly closing prices, so it only changes monthly. See 12-Month Moving Average for more details.
Dow Industrials: bearish.
Nasdaq Composite: bearish.
S&P 500 Index: bearish.
Dow Transports: bearish.
Dow Utilities: bearish.

## Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name 15 Pipe top 14 Pipe bottom 14 Triangle, symmetrical 10 Double Top, Adam and Adam 7 Head-and-shoulders top 5 Broadening bottom 5 Head-and-shoulders complex top 4 Triple top 3 Head-and-shoulders bottom 3 Triangle, descending

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

 This Week Last Week 1. Shoe 1. Shoe 2. Internet 2. Short ETFs 3. Furn/Home Furnishings 3. Furn/Home Furnishings 4. Cement and Aggregates 4. Cement and Aggregates 5. Short ETFs 5. Internet 50. Semiconductor Cap Equip. 50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing 51. Chemical (Basic) 51. Semiconductor Cap Equip. 52. Toiletries/Cosmetics 52. Petroleum (Integrated) 53. Semiconductor 53. Semiconductor 54. Petroleum (Producing) 54. Petroleum (Producing)

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

## Friday 9/11/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 11 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 580 stocks searched, or 1.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 8 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 18 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 Symbol Chart Pattern BullishBearish Start End Industry AAPL Triangle, symmetrical 08/31/2015 09/10/2015 Computers and Peripherals BSET Pipe bottom 08/24/2015 08/31/2015 Furn/Home Furnishings CPB Pipe bottom 08/24/2015 08/31/2015 Food Processing CX Triangle, symmetrical 08/27/2015 09/10/2015 Cement and Aggregates CNO Head-and-shoulders bottom 08/07/2015 09/04/2015 Insurance (Diversified) ELNK Pipe bottom 08/24/2015 08/31/2015 Internet GSOL Triangle, symmetrical 08/10/2015 09/04/2015 Advertising HD Triangle, symmetrical 08/28/2015 09/10/2015 Retail Building Supply JBHT Pipe bottom 08/24/2015 08/31/2015 Trucking/Transp. Leasing IDXX Pipe bottom 08/24/2015 08/31/2015 Drug LZB Triangle, symmetrical 08/20/2015 09/09/2015 Furn/Home Furnishings NFX Broadening wedge, descending 06/24/2015 09/09/2015 Natural Gas (Diversified) RTN Pipe bottom 08/24/2015 08/31/2015 Aerospace/Defense ^GSPC Triangle, symmetrical 08/25/2015 09/10/2015 None SE Triangle, descending 08/27/2015 09/10/2015 Oilfield Svcs/Equipment TE Pipe bottom 08/24/2015 08/31/2015 Electric Utility (East) TG Triangle, symmetrical 08/27/2015 09/10/2015 Chemical (Specialty) TREX Triangle, symmetrical 08/25/2015 09/10/2015 Building Materials WERN Pipe bottom 08/24/2015 08/31/2015 Trucking/Transp. Leasing

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 09/03/2015 and 09/10/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.

Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 327 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$112.57
1 Month avg volatility: \$4.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$101.88 or 9.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.98%
Volume: 62,807,200 shares. 3 month avg: 57,735,412 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/31/2015 to 09/10/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Bassett Furniture Industries Inc (BSET)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 29 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$31.59
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$27.97 or 11.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 61.92%
Volume: 129,500 shares. 3 month avg: 126,418 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Campbell Soup Co (CPB)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$49.15
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$46.48 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.70%
Volume: 1,522,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,334,531 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Cemex SA de CV (CX)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 448 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$7.76
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$6.76 or 12.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.85%
Volume: 12,111,300 shares. 3 month avg: 13,160,245 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/27/2015 to 09/10/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

CNO Financial Group, Inc (CNO)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 96 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$17.86
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$16.62 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.72%
Volume: 1,281,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,594,292 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 08/07/2015 to 09/04/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 3 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$8.84
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$7.85 or 11.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 101.37%
Volume: 721,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,178,977 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Global Sources Ltd (GSOL)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 6 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$8.26
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$7.59 or 8.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 29.87%
Volume: 8,600 shares. 3 month avg: 120,528 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/10/2015 to 09/04/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Home Depot, Inc (HD)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 154 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$114.49
1 Month avg volatility: \$3.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$106.84 or 6.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.07%
Volume: 5,253,600 shares. 3 month avg: 5,370,972 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/28/2015 to 09/10/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Hunt, J.B. (JBHT)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 391 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$75.70
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$72.33 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.15%
Volume: 1,006,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,365,368 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

IDEXX Laboratories, Inc (IDXX)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 167 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$75.33
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$70.37 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.61%
Volume: 536,200 shares. 3 month avg: 789,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 116 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$26.88
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$25.09 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.15%
Volume: 221,500 shares. 3 month avg: 329,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/20/2015 to 09/09/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Newfield Exploration Company (NFX)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 65 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$34.47
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$30.34 or 12.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 27.10%
Volume: 4,979,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,739,402 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 06/24/2015 to 09/09/2015
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

Raytheon Co. (RTN)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 165 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$106.07
1 Month avg volatility: \$2.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$100.90 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.94%
Volume: 1,547,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,877,920 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

S and P 500 (^GSPC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
9/10/15 close: \$1,952.29
1 Month avg volatility: \$39.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$1,857.57 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -5.18%
Volume: 668,618,900 shares. 3 month avg: 678,636,980 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/25/2015 to 09/10/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Spectra Energy Corp (SE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 458 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$27.89
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): \$30.08 or 7.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.17%
Volume: 6,503,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,143,823 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 08/27/2015 to 09/10/2015
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Teco Energy Inc (TE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 10 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$26.61
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$25.41 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 29.87%
Volume: 12,199,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,432,112 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Tredegar Corp (TG)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 517 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$13.59
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$11.94 or 12.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -39.57%
Volume: 80,700 shares. 3 month avg: 110,840 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/27/2015 to 09/10/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Trex Company (TREX)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 505 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$37.46
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$33.99 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.02%
Volume: 358,900 shares. 3 month avg: 468,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/25/2015 to 09/10/2015
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/03/2015. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 11/02/2015 and a 38% chance by 02/01/2016.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Werner Enterprises, Inc (WERN)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 393 out of 572
9/10/15 close: \$27.74
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.83. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$25.54 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.95%
Volume: 1,245,900 shares. 3 month avg: 667,946 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 08/31/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

## Thursday 9/10/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -1.2% or -55.4 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 108 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 1.1% on 46 occasions.
Average loss was -1.5% on 62 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 57.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 92/155 or 59.4% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/65 or 49.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

\$ \$ \$

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Outlined in the figure in red (A) is a measured move down chart pattern. After the pattern completes, as it has here, you likely see a rebound to the corrective phase of the pattern.

That means a bounce back up to 4800 or so, at a minimum.

B shows a support line from Tuesday. Combined with a gap, these patterns suggest the composite will find support and bounce upward on Thursday. That's just a guess, so keep that in mind since anything can happen.

\$ \$ \$

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 © 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric Value Diff Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? Monthly S2 3,858.19 Monthly S1 4,307.36 449.17 Weekly S2 4,522.32 214.96 Weekly S1 4,639.42 117.11 Daily S2 4,672.56 33.14 Daily S1 4,714.55 41.98 Weekly Pivot 4,732.02 17.47 Monthly Pivot 4,741.31 9.29 Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot. Low 4,746.73 5.42 Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot. Close 4,756.53 9.80 Yes! The Close is close to the Low. Daily Pivot 4,788.71 32.18 61.8% Down from Intraday High 4,791.10 2.39 Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. 50% Down from Intraday High 4,804.81 13.71 38.2% Down from Intraday High 4,818.51 13.71 Daily R1 4,830.70 12.19 Weekly R1 4,849.12 18.43 Open 4,856.27 7.15 Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly R1. High 4,862.88 6.61 Yes! The High is close to the Open. Daily R2 4,904.86 41.98 Weekly R2 4,941.72 36.85 Monthly R1 5,190.48 248.76 Monthly R2 5,624.43 433.95

## Wednesday 9/9/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: Bullish

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The two red lines outline a symmetrical triangle but the indicator doesn't show the same indecision as the index.

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

This chart shows an interesting cluster of bullish days (the cluster of green in the last few days).

An upward breakout from the symmetrical triangle will continue the green bars. A downward breakout could turn the bars red.

One thing we can say is that the direction of the breakout from that symmetrical triangle is unknown.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

## Tuesday 9/8/15. Intraday Market Direction: Dow

The index dropped by -1.7% or -272.38 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 104 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 1.2% on 46 occasions.
Average loss was -1.4% on 58 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 55.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 96/163 or 58.9% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 27/50 or 54.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

\$ \$ \$

I show a picture of the Dow industrials on the 5-minute scale.

The index appears to be range bound, bouncing from the top to bottom red trendlines.

Notice the peak at A doesn't touch the top trendline. What does that mean, if anything?

My guess is it spell weakness. We could see the index drop below the bottom red line. Or not. Maybe there will be good news to send the index higher over the holiday weekend.

Speaking of holidays, research says that the index typically closes higher after this holiday.

\$ \$ \$

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 © 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric Value Diff Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? Monthly S2 14,005.51 Monthly S1 15,053.94 1,048.44 Weekly S2 15,586.05 532.10 Daily S2 15,821.77 235.72 Weekly S1 15,844.21 22.45 Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2. Daily S1 15,962.07 117.86 Low 16,026.61 64.54 Close 16,102.38 75.77 61.8% Down from Intraday High 16,158.46 56.08 Daily Pivot 16,166.92 8.46 Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High. 50% Down from Intraday High 16,199.18 32.27 Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot. Weekly Pivot 16,238.12 38.93 38.2% Down from Intraday High 16,239.91 1.80 Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot. Daily R1 16,307.22 67.31 High 16,371.76 64.54 Open 16,371.76 0.00 Yes! The Open is close to the High. Monthly Pivot 16,418.77 47.01 Weekly R1 16,496.28 77.52 Daily R2 16,512.07 15.78 Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1. Weekly R2 16,890.19 378.12 Monthly R1 17,467.20 577.02 Monthly R2 18,832.03 1,364.82

## Friday 9/4/15. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 8 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 580 stocks searched, or 1.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 0 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 Symbol Chart Pattern BullishBearish Start End Industry ANF Pipe bottom 08/17/2015 08/24/2015 Apparel EXC Broadening bottom 06/30/2015 09/01/2015 Electric Utility (East) FRD Roof 07/29/2015 09/03/2015 Building Materials GSOL Triangle, symmetrical 08/10/2015 09/03/2015 Advertising HE Broadening top, right-angled and descending 05/26/2015 09/03/2015 Electric Utility (West) HOV Triangle, symmetrical 07/31/2015 09/03/2015 Homebuilding JBHT Double Bottom, Adam and Adam 08/24/2015 09/01/2015 Trucking/Transp. Leasing IIIN Triangle, symmetrical 07/16/2015 09/03/2015 Building Materials MTSN Pipe bottom 08/17/2015 08/24/2015 Semiconductor Cap Equip. MW Diamond bottom 08/11/2015 09/03/2015 Retail (Special Lines) OIH Pipe bottom 08/17/2015 08/24/2015 Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 08/27/2015 and 09/03/2015. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.

Abercrombie and Fitch Co. (ANF)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 146 out of 572
9/3/15 close: \$20.40
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$18.17 or 10.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -28.77%
Volume: 2,140,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,942,152 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/17/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 273 out of 572
9/3/15 close: \$30.26
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$28.16 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.39%
Volume: 6,765,400 shares. 3 month avg: 8,536,314 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/30/2015 to 09/01/2015
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Friedman Industries Inc (FRD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 280 out of 572
9/3/15 close: \$6.00
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): \$6.36 or 6.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -14.41%
Volume: 1,700 shares. 3 month avg: 10,617 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Roof reversal pattern from 07/29/2015 to 09/03/2015
Breakout is downward 84% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 68% of the time.

Global Sources Ltd (GSOL)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 6 out of 572
9/3/15 close: \$8.32
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$7.36 or 11.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 30.82%
Volume: 15,800 shares. 3 month avg: 121,538 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 08/10/2015 to 09/03/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 404 out of 572
9/3/15 close: \$27.25
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$25.88 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.61%
Volume: 259,300 shares. 3 month avg: 382,292 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 05/26/2015 to 09/03/2015
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 572
9/3/15 close: \$1.78
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$1.38 or 22.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -56.90%
Volume: 1,890,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,759,171 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/31/2015 to 09/03/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Hunt, J.B. (JBHT)
Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 319 out of 572
9/3/15 close: \$75.35
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$70.67 or 6.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -10.56%
Volume: 1,643,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,336,180 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 08/24/2015 to 09/01/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Insteel Industries Inc (IIIN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 446 out of 572
9/3/15 close: \$17.14
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$15.55 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -27.31%
Volume: 32,400 shares. 3 month avg: 56,782 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/16/2015 to 09/03/2015
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Mattson Technology Inc. (MTSN)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 552 out of 572
9/3/15 close: \$2.86
1 Month avg volatility: \$0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$2.52 or 11.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -15.88%
Volume: 204,400 shares. 3 month avg: 681,192 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/17/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Mens Warehouse (MW)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 55 out of 572
9/3/15 close: \$54.64
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$50.84 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.76%
Volume: 1,003,000 shares. 3 month avg: 800,174 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 08/11/2015 to 09/03/2015
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

Market Vectors Oil Services (OIH)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 53
Stock RS rank: 360 out of 572
9/3/15 close: \$30.54
1 Month avg volatility: \$1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): \$27.71 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.98%
Volume: 7,938,500 shares. 3 month avg: 7,270,680 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 08/17/2015 to 08/24/2015
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

## Thursday 9/3/15. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 2.5% or 113.87 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 29 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
Average gain was 1.4% on 17 occasions.
Average loss was -2.0% on 12 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 92/154 or 59.7% of the time.
The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 32/65 or 49.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

\$ \$ \$

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

As you may know, the indices have been volatile recently and yet this chart looks tame, as if traders overdosed on Xanax.

The reason for the calm chart is the price scale is compressed because of the tall range (from high to A).

A nice double bottom appears at 12. It's difficult to see, but on the 2-day chart, it's a nice pattern. It provided day traders the opportunity to make some bank, as they say.

\$ \$ \$

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

 © 2015 ThePatternSite.com    Metric Value Diff Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? Monthly S2 3,856.01 Weekly S2 4,081.66 225.65 Monthly S1 4,302.99 221.33 Weekly S1 4,415.82 112.83 Weekly Pivot 4,626.30 210.48 Daily S2 4,629.22 2.92 Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot. Low 4,659.41 30.19 Daily S1 4,689.60 30.19 61.8% Down from Intraday High 4,694.01 4.41 Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1. Open 4,704.42 10.41 50% Down from Intraday High 4,704.69 0.27 Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open. 38.2% Down from Intraday High 4,715.38 10.69 Daily Pivot 4,719.79 4.41 Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High. Monthly Pivot 4,739.13 19.34 Close 4,749.98 10.85 High 4,749.98 0.00 Yes! The High is close to the Close. Daily R1 4,780.17 30.19 Daily R2 4,810.36 30.19 Weekly R1 4,960.46 150.10 Weekly R2 5,170.94 210.48 Monthly R1 5,186.11 15.17 Monthly R2 5,622.25 436.13

## Wednesday 9/2/15. Chart Pattern Indicator: What's It Say?

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

You all know that the markets have been trending down. The indicator shows this, but it is not as pronounced as it is on the next chart.

This is another view of the CPI only it shows signal changes.

The red bars are bearish. The indicator has been bearish for about two weeks now with one green bar in between. It turned bearish about three days before the index started to tumble.

Since the indicator is near zero, it will bounce higher or it can stay pegged where it is. If the markets were to bounce higher, the indicator could jump up, too. To remain in the green, the index would have to stay bullish for a week. If it does not, the bullish signal could disappear.

The green bar in the middle of the red bars is a results of the one-day jump in the index.

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.

## Tuesday 9/1/15. Neighbor Cuts Cord

My neighbor was tilling in his yard and cut my phone and internet connection. No post today.

I'm told that I'll be billed for the repair, even though I wasn't at fault, and will have to collect from my neighbor.

Life is fun...

-- Thomas Bulkowski. Donate now to keep this website free.