As of 09/15/2021
  Indus: 34,814 +236.82 +0.7%  
  Trans: 14,420 +134.87 +0.9%  
  Utils: 925 +0.27 +0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 15,162 +123.77 +0.8%  
  S&P 500: 4,481 +37.65 +0.8%  
YTD
 +13.7%  
 +15.3%  
 +7.0%  
 +17.6%  
 +19.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2021  
  Up arrow35,600 or 33,800 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow15,400 or 14,000 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow965 or 905 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow15,600 or 14,700 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow4,650 or 4,350 by 10/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/15/21
As of 09/15/2021
  Indus: 34,814 +236.82 +0.7%  
  Trans: 14,420 +134.87 +0.9%  
  Utils: 925 +0.27 +0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 15,162 +123.77 +0.8%  
  S&P 500: 4,481 +37.65 +0.8%  
YTD
 +13.7%  
 +15.3%  
 +7.0%  
 +17.6%  
 +19.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2021  
  Up arrow35,600 or 33,800 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow15,400 or 14,000 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow965 or 905 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow15,600 or 14,700 by 10/01/2021
  Up arrow4,650 or 4,350 by 10/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/15/21

Bulkowski's 2021 Forecast June Update

 

Released 5/29/2021.

Forecast Updated for June 2021

Below is the updated forecast for 2021 as of the close on Friday May 28. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.

 

1 / 5
chart pattern indicator

This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

A bullish signal has reappeared three days ago (vertical green bar, far right) and usually that means it'll remain. Signals can change for up to a week, so there's no guarantee that this one can hold its position if the market makes a big down move. My worry is that even though the CPI shows the thin blue line rising dramatically (since the May low), the index is only back up to the height of the prior peak.

That move doesn't look as robust as the CPI line suggests.

The next chart looks at the 2021 forecast for the Dow industrials.
2 / 5
Dow industrials chart

This is the Dow Industrials in black and the prediction in red. Notice that the index is doing better than the prediction (the index is above the red line even though the shape of the two lines is similar)...

The index peaked at nearly the same time as the red prediction. If the index follows the prediction, then look for the industrials to drop going into September.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 5
Nasdaq chart

Here's a chart of the Nasdaq.

The index peaked at A, several weeks ahead of the peak in the prediction (B). The index is at C now, ready to tumble to the September lows if it follows the predicted path.

Notice that the predicted peak (B) is lower than the one at the start of February. Compare that to the two highest peaks in the Nasdaq (February and A). Those two are at about the same level. Point A might be a touch higher, which would qualify it for a 2B pattern. A slightly higher second peak means a more robust decline...

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 5
S and P chart

Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.

Points A and B almost align. A small double bottom appears on the index (the two bottoms after A). Again, note the predicted decline to September, C. However, the index has done much better than predicted, so even if a decline occurs, it probably won't be as harsh as the prediction shows (that is, the index will remain above C).

One more: 10 year chart.
5 / 5
S and P chart

Here's the Dow industrials predicted move for the next 10 years.

The index bottoms at A this year, makes a higher bottom at B in 2022, and then doubles in price over the next decade. Expect the index to see turbulence at C and D before recovering to move higher at the end of the chart.

The end.

See Also

 
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