As of 04/18/2024
Indus: 37,775 +22.07 +0.1%
Trans: 14,947 -39.62 -0.3%
Utils: 860 +6.95 +0.8%
Nasdaq: 15,602 -81.87 -0.5%
S&P 500: 5,011 -11.09 -0.2%
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YTD
+0.2%
-6.0%
-2.4%
+3.9%
+5.1%
|
 39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 |
As of 04/18/2024
Indus: 37,775 +22.07 +0.1%
Trans: 14,947 -39.62 -0.3%
Utils: 860 +6.95 +0.8%
Nasdaq: 15,602 -81.87 -0.5%
S&P 500: 5,011 -11.09 -0.2%
|
YTD
+0.2%
-6.0%
-2.4%
+3.9%
+5.1%
| |
|
39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 | ||
Released 2/26/2021.
Below is the updated forecast for 2021 as of the close on Friday February 26. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.
The big drop in the Dow (down 469) today (Friday, 2/26/21) pulled down the CPI. Whether that signal will remain bearish is anyone's guess. It can change (disappear) for up to a week. My guess is that the Dow will continue lower before it rebounds. The next charts show what the forecast says will happen.
This is the Dow Industrials in black and the prediction in red. The forecast showed the Dow dropping right out of the gate, to A even as the Dow soared to B.
The drop in the Dow came at C and it recovered, generally following the forecast toward D.
Looking forward, if the forecast is correct, the Dow will retrace up to D before plunging to E in mid March.
Here's a chart of the Nasdaq.
The forecast shows the Nasdaq peaking sooner (A) than it actually did (B) but it got the height correct. From B, the Nasdaq followed the forecast lower to C, where it is now.
If the forecast is correct, look for the Nasdaq to continue lower to D in early to mid March.
Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.
The forecast performed better on this chart. The forecast climbed to B and so did the S&P, but the index dropped to A first.
The forecast shows the index dropping to C, retracing to D before resuming the drop to E and bottoming there.
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