Bulkowski's Watch List

Written by Thomas N. Bulkowski and copyright © 2008-2011 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.

READ THIS: The following are NOT stocks I own or recommend people buy. This is just a shopping list of stocks I'm interested in buying.

Consider these stocks as just the first cut in a long process of elimination. They have not been filtered for anything other than I find them interesting, so you should do additional research before trading them. I am not recommending that you buy any of these stocks. No stocks that I currently own appear in the list unless I bought it after I posted it. See the privacy statement and disclaimer for more information.

I have a computer program that builds this list by finding the most recent chart pattern in the file. That may or may not be the one I am interested in, so keep that in mind. This list is updated whenever time allows. Stocks may appear or disappear without this list being updated.

Watch List Removal Philosophy

First, there are two reasons for a security listed in the Additions section to not appear in the list. The first is that I bought it. Stocks I own, as I mentioned above, will not appear in this list. I don't want to be accused to touting stuff I own.

Second, is that I conducted more research or something happened in the markets which caused me to remove the security from my shopping list. It fell out of favor for whatever reason. I don't disclose the reason for removal (I used to), because maintaining the list is just too much trouble.

Watch List

The following are NOT stocks I own or recommend people buy. This is just a shopping list of stocks I'm interested in buying. Read the above introduction for more information.

If no securities appear in the list, then I don't see anything worth buying. Click on the symbol for a more detailed discussion of the security. This list is automatically generated, so the patterns found here are the most recent ones located in the stock, but are not necessarily the ones I am looking at. Read the list of additions for a more accurate picture.

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 52

Stock RS rank: 517 out of 661

Latest close as of 06/09/2011: $28.21

1 Month average volatility: $0.47. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $27.17 or 3.7% below the close.

Change year to date: -5.97%

Volume: 640,200 shares

3 month average volume: 276,032 shares

Based on up closes since the 2009 bear market ended, the day with fewest up closes is Friday, and the most up closes is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/01/2010 to 12/22/2010

Performance rank: 16 out of 23.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.

Watch List Additions

6/9/11: After taking a big hit during quarterly earnings announcement, Black Hills Corp (BKH) has plummeted so far that it yields 5%. That is tasty and the yield will continue to grow as the stock drops. When it bottoms, I may buy providing the research on the stock says it can recover. The bottom could be at 26 with a recovery to 35 as a matter of waiting.

5/1/11: I spent this weekend looking for stocks to buy since I have too much cash. I found a bunch and narrowed it down to just 4: Allstate (ALL), Avery Dennison (AVY), Convergys (CVG), and RTI International Metals (RTI). Allstate will be a buy once it throws back to the short, flat base that began in Dec 2010. RTI would be a buy if it pierces overhead resistance at 32. Avery Dennison: looks like the markets disliked the quarterly report, so I would wait for another breakout above the ascending triangle started on Dec 2010. I'm not sure what to make of Convergys. Weekly scale says it could rise to 17 to 19 easily enough...or drop to 13. Top end looks to be 24 but that would be a 2 year target. That's almost a double.

3/2/11: I added Automatic Data Processing (ADP). I saw that the human resource industry has good relative strength and went shopping and found this one. It shows a ascending triangle in a price pattern that doesn't look volatile.

2/27/11: I added three stocks this weekend, namely, Encore Wire (WIRE), Integrated Device Technology (IDTI), and FormFactor (FORM). On the weekly scale, WIRE shows a long ascending triangle that starts at in early 2008 and has an irregular but somewhat flat top. Price is struggling to push above it. Further research will determine whether this is a candidate to rise up to a 35 target from 23.50 now.

FORM shows a loose move up and down since November. It's pricey now, but a breakout from that congestion region could see the stock climb to 16 from 10.

IDTI has already busted out of a congestion zone at 7 but this could rise to a cloudbank pattern at 15 (from mid 2006 to mid 2007), for a double. Both IDTI and FORM are semiconductor plays. I expect the technology area to do well this year and some stocks have already performed well in that industry. I'm hoping that market participants will spread the love.

1/20/11: I added Nvidia (NVDA) on the prospect of a high and tight flag that looks promising. The rise is going to be a bit choppy and may not hit 50% because the price slope leading to the HTF is too steep.

1/16-17/11: I went shopping for stocks today and found mediocre ones. Encore Wire (WIRE), Flir Systems (FLIR), Price International (PDE), Titanium Metals (TIE). None of them are really exciting, certainly not on a fundamental basis but the technical basis is compelling. On the weekly scale, most are at or near overhead resistance, waiting for earnings that will come in a few weeks. And Mom says eat your vegetables.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Copyright © 2008-2011 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Q: What is the difference between men and government bonds? A: Bonds mature.