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Bulkowski’s Test Portfolios

Market

Dow industrials (^DJI):

Dow transports (^DJT):

Dow utilities (^DJU):

Nasdaq composite (^IXIC):

Russell 2000 (^RUT):

S&P 500 (^GSPC):

Wilshire 5000 (^DWC):

As of 10/03/2008

10,325.38 -157.47 -1.5%

4,134.55 -42.63 -1.0%

411.71 -3.81 -0.9%

1,947.39 -29.33 -1.5%

619.40 -18.27 -2.9%

1,099.23 -15.05 -1.4%

11,122.98 -171.15 -1.5%

YTD

-22.2%

-9.5%

-22.7%

-26.6%

-19.1%

-25.1%

-24.9%

Tom’s Targets

11,900 by 11/01/2008

5,400 by 11/01/2008

485 by 11/01/2008

2,400 by 11/01/2008

740 by 11/01/2008

1,300 by 11/01/2008

13,000 by 11/01/2008

Test Portfolios and CPI

Industry relative strength: -2.0%

Mutt Losers: -26.4%

Mutt Winners: -12.3%

Wilder RSI: -4.6%

CPI: bearish as of 9/22/2008

This page serves as the gateway to various test portfolios featuring stock transactions updated as needed. The portfolios are setup to test various indicators, methods, and techniques, but are not meant as investment vehicles that you should use. See each portfolio for more information.

Performance Summary

Year to date, as of 10/03/2008...

The industry relative strength portfolio (closed trades): -0.6%. Open+closed trades: -2.0%.

The Mutual fund (worst performing) portfolio (closed trades): No trades as yet. Open+closed trades: -26.4%.

The Mutual fund (best performing) portfolio (closed trades): -10.8%. Open+closed trades: -12.3%.

The Wilder RSI portfolio (closed trades): 63.1%. Open+closed trades: -4.6%.

Portfolios

Industry relative strength portfolio.

This portfolio uses a combination of industry relative strength and stock relative strength to time the trades. This method relies on upward momentum of an industry as a buy signal, but does not have a good exit strategy. My tests revealed that the longer you hold onto a stock, the better you tend to do. That is fine as long as the stock rises, but when the market turns down, you are still left holding onto the stock. Subsequent losses follow, so the draw downs can be huge. Thus, if you use this method to buy a stock, it is best that you use your own exit signal to sell a holding.

Mutual fund losers.

Mutual fund losers is a portfolio based on selecting the worst performing index funds and holding them until they recover. Performance tends to be slightly worse than basing results on the best performing mutual fund. For more information on the tests behind this idea, click here.

Mutual fund winners.

Mutual fund winners chooses the best performing mutual funds (both index and non index) and holds them. For more information on the tests behind this idea, click here.

Bulkowski’s Watch List.

This is not a model portfolio, but a collection of stocks that I am watching to trade. Just because a stock appears in my watch list is no reason to believe that I will buy it. See the link for more details.

Wilder RSI portfolio.

This portfolio is based on the relative strength index as defined by Welles Wilder. It tends to buy stocks too early and does not sell in a timely manner when they drop. Thus, this is a buy-and-hold type portfolio, where you close your eyes, hold your nose, and just trade when it tells you to, hoping to skip any bear market or weakness in the stock. Nevertheless, it does highlight stocks that are cheap, so if you like bottom fishing, here are some candidates. Just realize that you may be buying too early and have a better exit strategy in place, too.