As of 03/27/2024
  Indus: 39,760 +477.75 +1.2%  
  Trans: 16,029 +177.70 +1.1%  
  Utils: 875 +23.30 +2.7%  
  Nasdaq: 16,400 +83.82 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,248 +44.91 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.5%  
 +0.8%  
-0.8%  
 +9.2%  
 +10.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024
As of 03/27/2024
  Indus: 39,760 +477.75 +1.2%  
  Trans: 16,029 +177.70 +1.1%  
  Utils: 875 +23.30 +2.7%  
  Nasdaq: 16,400 +83.82 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,248 +44.91 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.5%  
 +0.8%  
-0.8%  
 +9.2%  
 +10.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024

Bulkowski's Yellow Roadway Trading Quiz

Released 12/16/2020.

YELL: Quiz

Below is a slider quiz to test your trading ability. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

 

1 / 6
chart pattern
What chart patterns can you find? Look for the following: ascending triangle, symmetrical triangle, triple top, rectangle top, and a right-angled and ascending broadening pattern, with three patterns appearing on top of each other.
Answers are on the next slide.
2 / 6
chart pattern

The light green formation in October 2003 is an ascending triangle. The tops 1, 2, and 3 are a triple top, unconfirmed. The blue lines show the outline of a rectangle top.

Concerning the symmetrical triangle in August/Sept 2005, it broke out downward and then reversed direction to shoot out the top of the triangle, busting it. That suggests a powerful up move, or does it?

Question 1: Do you buy, short, or avoid trading this stock?
Question 2: If trading this one, what is the target price?
Question 3: If trading this one, what is the stop price?
My answers appear on the next slide.
3 / 6
chart pattern

Answer 1 (buy?): Buy. Busted patterns tend to do very well, so if you see one, consider trading it.

Answer 2 (target?): Here's an alternative way to find the target instead of using the measure rule.

This is a zoom of the symmetrical triangle. Begin from the highest high in the pattern and draw the red line parallel to the bottom of the sym triangle (shown as a duplicate line in green for clarity). The price where the red line reaches the DATE of breakout becomes the target. I show the intersection with a circle. The price of the circle is the target price and it's slightly below 46. Since we have no overhead resistance, that makes trading this stock easier.

Answer 3 (stop?): Where should you place a stop? A stop placed below the minor low I show as point A I think would work. Volatility is $1.89, so a stop no closer than 41.42 would help keep you from being stopped out on normal price fluctuation. That's 1.89 minus the current low of 43.31.

More on the next slide.
4 / 6
chart pattern

Here's my notebook entry for the trade.

"Date: 9/8/04. Filled at: 44.279. Stop: 40.70 or 8% Just below triangle bottom. Placed 9/8/04. Upside target: 56.14. Future S&P direction (guess): up.

Buy reason: Busted symmetrical triangle with upward breakout (initially broke out downward but only by a little). Reported better than expected strength in its markets, so earnings will do well. The stock is up on a down day. Score: +4 with 56.14 target. The trucking stocks are the best performers over last 6 months and this stock is doing very well. I expect the good news to continue."

I placed the stop closer, at 40.70 which I show as the red line. That means I could tolerate an 8% decline before being stopped out. The upside target is 56.14. I found that by using the scoring system I discussed in my book Trading Classic Chart Patterns. The chart pattern had a +4 score, suggesting it was likely to reach the median rise of 56.14.

More on the next slide.
5 / 6
chart pattern

As you can see, price has climbed to the 56.14 target and peaked at 56.81, slightly exceeding the target. Here's my notebook entry and it concerns stop placement. I show them on the date and price where they were applied as red circles.

"9/30/01: Stop raised to 43.75 after the close. 11/17/04: Stop raised to 46.93. 11/19/04: Stop raised to 47.93. 12/2/04: Stop raised to 49.43. 12/6/04: Stop raised to 50.83. 12/21/04: Stop raised to 51.77. 12/23/04: Stop raised to 52.77. 12/29/04: Stop raised to 53.77."

Notice how the dots cluster as I get more nervous about the stock. Here's the final notebook entry.

Date: 1/5/2005. Filled at: 53.776. Sell reason: Hit stop.

The stop forced a sale, but was this the proper selling point? What would you have done?

More on the next slide.
6 / 6
chart pattern

Price backtracked a bit before surging to new highs, reaching 64.47. Then the stock tumbled back down to a low of 38.81 as the price of gas took off. I made just over 21% on the trade.

The end.

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