As of 11/20/2019
  Indus: 27,821 -112.93 -0.4%  
  Trans: 10,695 -152.59 -1.4%  
  Utils: 855 +6.70 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 8,527 -43.93 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,108 -11.72 -0.4%  
YTD
 +19.3%  
 +16.6%  
 +19.9%  
 +28.5%  
 +24.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/14/2019  
  Up arrow28,200 or 27,100 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow11,400 or 10,600 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow8,700 or 8,200 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow3,200 or 3,025 by 12/01/2019
As of 11/20/2019
  Indus: 27,821 -112.93 -0.4%  
  Trans: 10,695 -152.59 -1.4%  
  Utils: 855 +6.70 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 8,527 -43.93 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,108 -11.72 -0.4%  
YTD
 +19.3%  
 +16.6%  
 +19.9%  
 +28.5%  
 +24.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/14/2019  
  Up arrow28,200 or 27,100 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow11,400 or 10,600 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow8,700 or 8,200 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow3,200 or 3,025 by 12/01/2019

Bulkowski's Time Performance

 

Updated on 7/25/19.

This article compares the performance of chart patterns over the decades. Do chart patterns perform worse or better now than in decades past? Let's find out.

 

Time Performance: Up Breakouts

The following table shows the average and median rises from the breakout to the ultimate high. There are 56 patterns shown.

 

Up Breakouts: Bull Market Performance Over Decades
 Average Rise2010sMedian Rise
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s  Rank  1990s  2000s  2010s 
AB=CD, bearish42%44%43%1922%25%22%
AB=CD, bullish38%43%36%3720%24%19%
Bat, bearish42%50%38%3022%31%24%
Bat, bullish43%55%42%2226%24%26%
Big W44%52%46%1130%31%28%
Broadening bottom41%45%45%1420%21%25%
Broadening top40%47%34%4323%26%15%
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending39%50%34%4325%25%19%
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending34%53%36%3723%28%18%
Broadening wedge, ascending44%43%41%2330%29%18%
Broadening wedge, descending41%44%38%3026%30%24%
Bump-and-run reversal bottom44%67%65%127%47%47%
Butterfly, bearish44%50%43%1929%29%23%
Butterfly, bullish49%*44%31%5127%26%18%
Crab, bearish41%45%45%1424%28%28%
Crab, bullish42%*35%*48%*924%*30%*41%*
Cup with handle49%54%55%632%36%37%
Diamond bottom45%39%40%2634%25%19%
Diamond top24%37%29%5219%26%12%
Double bottom, Adam & Adam45%62%35%4026%29%17%
Double bottom, Adam & Eve44%49%33%4726%32%14%
Double bottom, Eve & Adam39%49%36%3725%32%21%
Double bottom, Eve & Eve43%58%37%3522%35%18%
Diving board91%56%58%445%37%38%
Flags**14%12%6%569%7%4%
Flags, high and tight43%37%34%4322%27%17%
Gartley, bear39%49%49%724%31%26%
Gartley, bull46%58%41%2322%33%24%
Head-and-shoulders bottom45%46%44%1730%31%23%
Head-and-shoulders bottom, complex41%45%62%229%28%35%
Horn bottom55%70%49%728%39%29%
Island bottoms26%30%37%3511%19%11%
Island, long29%35%34%4313%23%16%
Measured move down41%52%40%2623%28%18%
Measured move up36%50%38%3019%28%16%
Pennants**10%7%4%578%5%3%
Pipe bottom53%60%46%1128%35%27%
Rectangle bottoms48%52%40%2627%28%18%
Rectangle Tops55%59%38%3031%32%18%
Roof30%46%32%4915%24%14%
Roof, inverted29%29%44%1721%13%14%
Rounding bottom55%66%56%536%41%39%
Rounding top53%78%60%333%41%43%
Scallop, ascending38%54%41%2325%36%27%
Scallop, ascending and inverted43%55%38%3028%33%23%
Scallop, descending37%39%45%1421%27%24%
Scallop, descending and inverted38%53%46%1129%30%24%
Three rising valleys45%50%47%1030%32%28%
Triangle, ascending47%47%35%4024%20%15%
Triangle, descending51%37%27%5531%19%12%
Triangle, symmetrical41%38%29%5224%21%12%
Triple bottoms43%45%43%1928%25%22%
V-bottoms44%41%33%4726%21%17%
V-bottoms, extended40%44%35%4024%26%21%
Wedge, falling34%47%32%4919%20%12%
Wedge, rising31%41%39%2918%25%21%
Wolfe wave, bullish28%30%28%5412%12%12%
* Measure uses 30 samples or fewer, so results may be inaccurate.
** Measures from the opening price the day after the breakout to the very short-term tend end (approximately the closest minor high or low).

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Time Performance: Down Breakouts

The following table shows the average and median declines from the breakout to the ultimate low. There are 53 patterns shown.

Down Breakouts: Bull Market Performance Over Decades
 Average Rise2010sMedian Rise
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s  Rank  1990s  2000s  2010s 
AB=CD, bearish14%13%12%3811%9%8%
AB=CD, bullish15%13%14%2711%8%10%
Bat, bearish16%12%12%3814%11%7%
Bat, bullish18%13%17%814%7%14%
Big M19%15%16%917%13%13%
Broadening bottom17%13%16%915%10%10%
Broadening top16%13%13%3413%9%8%
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending16%13%14%2711%9%9%
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending16%13%16%914%10%11%
Broadening wedge, ascending17%11%13%3413%8%8%
Broadening wedge, descending17%12%14%2713%8%10%
Bump-and-run reversal top19%18%19%117%15%15%
Butterfly, bearish14%12%16%99%9%9%
Butterfly, bullish18%16%*16%916%12%12%
Crab, bearish17%22%*15%1916%16%*9%
Crab, bullish16%13%*16%913%9%*12%
Cup with handle, inverted17%16%19%114%15%13%
Diamond bottom23%14%15%1922%12%11%
Diamond top20%15%14%2718%12%10%
Double top, Adam & Adam16%13%12%3813%10%8%
Double top, Adam & Eve17%13%11%4514%10%8%
Double top, Eve & Adam15%12%12%3813%9%9%
Double top, Eve & Eve16%13%10%4913%11%7%
Flags*11%8%6%529%7%5%
Gartley, bear16%17%15%1914%13%12%
Gartley, bull17%13%15%1915%9%12%
Head-and-shoulders tops20%14%15%1917%11%10%
Head-and-shoulders tops, complex20%13%16%918%9%11%
Horn tops19%18%19%116%14%15%
Island, long17%13%13%3414%11%9%
Island tops14%15%12%3810%11%8%
Measured move down13%12%11%459%8%8%
Measured move up13%13%11%4510%9%8%
Pennants**9%6%5%536%4%3%
Pipe top20%18%18%417%14%14%
Rectangle bottoms15%14%18%412%10%12%
Rectangle Tops16%10%12%3815%7%7%
Roof18%9%14%2717%6%12%
Roof, inverted17%12%13%3413%10%10%
Rounding top21%16%18%420%13%15%
Scallop, ascending15%13%16%912%11%12%
Scallop, descending18%13%16%916%10%11%
Scallop, descending and inverted18%12%14%2715%9%11%
Three falling peaks17%13%15%1915%9%11%
Triangle, ascending17%11%11%4515%6%6%
Triangle, descending16%14%16%914%9%10%
Triangle, symmetrical14%12%12%3811%8%7%
Triple tops17%13%14%2714%9%10%
V-tops16%14%15%1912%10%11%
V-top, extended20%18%18%417%14%14%
Wedge, falling16%11%15%1910%8%11%
Wedge, rising13%8%7%519%4%4%
Wolfe wave, bearish12%11%10%498%7%6%

* Measure uses 30 samples or fewer, so results may be inaccurate.

** Measures from the opening price the day after the breakout to the very short-term tend end (approximately the closest minor high or low).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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See Also

 

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My novels:      New                  Bumper's Story Head's Law

Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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