As of 10/15/2020
  Indus: 28,494 -19.80 -0.1%  
  Trans: 11,989 +101.34 +0.9%  
  Utils: 875 +0.03 +0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 11,714 -54.86 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,483 -5.33 -0.2%  
YTD
-0.2%  
 +10.0%  
-0.4%  
 +30.6%  
 +7.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/29/2020  
  Up arrow29,300 or 27,400 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,000 or 11,000 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow915 or 840 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,300 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow3,700 or 3,400 by 11/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/25/20
As of 10/15/2020
  Indus: 28,494 -19.80 -0.1%  
  Trans: 11,989 +101.34 +0.9%  
  Utils: 875 +0.03 +0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 11,714 -54.86 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,483 -5.33 -0.2%  
YTD
-0.2%  
 +10.0%  
-0.4%  
 +30.6%  
 +7.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/29/2020  
  Up arrow29,300 or 27,400 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,000 or 11,000 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow915 or 840 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,300 by 11/01/2020
  Up arrow3,700 or 3,400 by 11/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/25/20

Bulkowski's Height and Width Study

 

Statistics updated and new patterns added: 9/10/2020.

In numerous studies I have conducted, one factor towers above all others when trying to gauge the best performance of a chart pattern: Height. Tall chart patterns perform better than short ones. What is meant by tall and what is meant by short?

Compute the chart pattern's height from the highest peak to the lowest valley. Divide the result by the breakout price and then compare it to the median height shown in the following table. If your number is greater than the median then you have a tall pattern. If your number is less than the median then your chart pattern is short.

A similar situation applies to width. Unfortunately, width is a poor indicator of performance because some wide chart patterns perform better and some don't. Measure the length of the chart pattern from its start to its end (in calendar days and not price bars) and compare it to the median width listed in the following table. Wide chart patterns have widths greater than the median. Narrow chart patterns have widths less than the median.

Where does a chart pattern start and end? Use the first peak or valley and the last peak or valley in the chart pattern as the start and end points. A head-and-shoulders top, for example, begins with the highest peak in the left shoulder and ends with the highest peak in the right shoulder.

The "Works Best" column in the following table tells whether tall or short works best for height and narrow or wide works best for width.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Height and Width Study: Bull Markets Only

Bull Market Chart PatternMedian
Height (%)
Works
Best
Median
Width (days)
Works
Best
Big M, down breakout12.4Tall26Narrow
Big W, up breakout11.9Tall23Wide
Broadening Bottoms, down breakout13.2Tall39Wide
Broadening Bottoms, up breakout12.0Tall41Narrow
Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Ascending, down breakout11.4Tall48Wide
Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Ascending, up breakout10.6Tall50Wide
Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Descending, down breakout10.4Tall42Wide
Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Descending, up breakout9.7Tall50Wide
Broadening Tops, down breakout15.2Tall45Wide
Broadening Tops, up breakout10.6Tall45Wide
Broadening Wedges, Ascending, down breakout18.7Tall59Wide
Broadening Wedges, Ascending, up breakout14.8Tie55Narrow
Broadening Wedges, Descending, down breakout13.8Tall40Wide
Broadening Wedges, Descending, up breakout15.9Tall50Wide
Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottoms, up breakout27.2Tall100Tie
Bump-and-run Reversal Tops, down breakout32.0Tall112Wide
Cup-with-Handle, up breakout23.2Short174Narrow
Cup-with-Handle, Inverted, down breakout28.8Tall134Tie
Diamond Bottoms, down breakout12.1Tall37Tie
Diamond Bottoms, up breakout10.9Tall34Wide
Diamond Tops, down breakout9.9Tall36Wide
Diamond Tops, up breakout9.8Tall38Wide
Double Bottoms, Adam & Adam, up breakout9.4Tall16Wide
Double Bottoms, Adam & Eve, up breakout12.5Tall25Wide
Double Bottoms, Eve & Adam, up breakout11.5Tall23Wide
Double Bottoms, Eve & Eve, up breakout14.7Tall36Wide
Double Tops, Adam & Adam, down breakout7.1Tall15Wide
Bull Market Chart PatternMedian
Height (%)
Works
Best
Median
Width (days)
Works
Best
Double Tops, Adam & Eve, down breakout11.4Tall23Tie
Double Tops, Eve & Adam, down breakout9.6Tall22Wide
Double Tops, Eve & Eve, down breakout13.7Tall36Tie
Flags, down breakout4.4Tall10wide
Flags, up breakout 4.3Tall9Narrow
Flags, High and Tight, up breakout14.8Short60Wide
Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms, up breakout13.4Tall37Wide
Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms, Complex, up breakout 15.3Tall62Wide
Head-and-Shoulders Tops, down breakout12.5Tall36Wide
Head-and-Shoulders Tops, Complex, down breakout15.4Tall60Wide
Horn Bottoms, up breakout13.5TallN/AN/A
Horn Tops, down breakout14.0TallN/AN/A
Islands Reversals, down breakout5.6Tall6Wide
Islands Reversals, up breakout5.2Tall6Wide
Pennants, down breakout4.3Tall6Wide
Pennants, up breakout4.2Tall7Wide
Pipe Bottom, up breakout12.2TallN/AN/A
Pipe Tops, down breakout13.0TallN/AN/A
Rectangles Bottoms, down breakout 9.6Tall55Wide
Rectangles Bottoms, up breakout8.3Tall55Wide
Bull Market Chart PatternMedian
Height (%)
Works
Best
Median
Width (days)
Works
Best
Rectangles Tops, down breakout7.1Tall49Wide
Rectangles Tops, up breakout7.9Tall53Wide
Roof, down breakout8.7Tall47Wide
Roof, up breakout9.2Tall50Wide
Roof, inverted, down breakout9.1Tall43Narrow
Roof, inverted, up breakout8.7Tie45Wide
Rounding Bottoms, up breakout21.9Tall174Wide
Rounding Tops, down breakout36.2Tall149Wide
Rounding Tops, up breakout24.9Tall145Wide
Scallops, Ascending, down breakout 18.7Tall37wide
Scallops, Ascending, up breakout18.2Tall41Wide
Scallops, Ascending and Inverted, up breakout17.4Tall37Tie
Scallops, Descending, down breakout 18.4Tall30Tie
Scallops, Descending, up breakout17.8Short36Tie
Scallops, Inverted and Descending, down breakout21.1Tall29Narrow
Scallops, Inverted and Descending, up breakout15.5Tall36Wide
Three Falling Peaks, down breakout22.4Tall57tie
Three Rising Valleys, up breakout22.4Short87Wide
Triangles, Ascending, down breakout9.4Tall43Wide
Triangles, Ascending, up breakout9.5Tall44Tie
Triangles, Descending, down breakout 11.4Tall45Wide
Triangles, Descending, up breakout9.5Tall42Wide
Triangles, Symmetrical, down breakout11.4Tall35Wide
Triangles, Symmetrical, up breakout10.1Tall35Wide
Triple Bottoms, up breakout9.9Tall39Wide
Triple Tops, down breakout9.7Tall38Wide
V bottoms, up breakout34.0Tall28Wide
V bottoms, extended, up breakout32.6Tall44Wide
V tops, down breakout25.3Tall18Tie
V tops, extended, down breakout22.0Tall34Narrow
Wedges, Falling, down breakout16.1Tall45Wide
Wedges, Falling, up breakout15.0Tall38Wide
Wedges, Rising, down breakout20.1Tall40Wide
Wedges, Rising, up breakout11.9Tie42Wide
Bull Market Chart PatternMedian
Height (%)
Works
Best
Median
Width (days)
Works
Best

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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See Also

 

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My novels:  Bumper's Story Head's Law

Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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