As of 05/23/2024
  Indus: 39,065 -605.78 -1.5%  
  Trans: 15,009 -185.73 -1.2%  
  Utils: 924 -20.84 -2.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,736 -65.51 -0.4%  
  S&P 500: 5,268 -39.17 -0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.6%  
 +4.8%  
 +11.5%  
 +10.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024
As of 05/23/2024
  Indus: 39,065 -605.78 -1.5%  
  Trans: 15,009 -185.73 -1.2%  
  Utils: 924 -20.84 -2.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,736 -65.51 -0.4%  
  S&P 500: 5,268 -39.17 -0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.6%  
 +4.8%  
 +11.5%  
 +10.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024

Bulkowski's August 2023 Forecast Update

Released 8/1/2023.

Below is the updated forecast for 2023 as of the close on August 1, 2023. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


1 / 4
chart pattern indicator

This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.

The indicator slipped to neutral as the white (gray) vertical bar on the far right of the chart shows. It suggests weakness and I expect a retrace is upon us.

For the year, though, the market has been trending higher.

The next chart looks at the Dow industrials.
2 / 4
Dow industrials chart

This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I drew a blue line to show the trend of the industrials when compared to the red line forecast. The slope of both look similar so this year might be one that the forecast mirrors the actual result, at least for the Dow industrials.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 4
Nasdaq chart

This is the Nasdaq on the daily chart.

The chart shows the index outperforming the forecast by a wide margin. It's well above the predicted end-of-year high.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 4
S and P chart

Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

This chart is similar to the prior one except the year's end in the forecast is similar to today's value in the index.

The end.

See Also

 
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