Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 03/21/2023
  Indus: 32,561 +316.02 +1.0%  
  Trans: 13,994 +229.26 +1.7%  
  Utils: 909 -22.36 -2.4%  
  Nasdaq: 11,860 +184.57 +1.6%  
  S&P 500: 4,003 +51.30 +1.3%  
YTD
-1.8%  
 +4.5%  
-6.0%  
 +13.3%  
 +4.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/14/2023  
  Down arrow30,900 or 33,100 by 04/01/2023
  Up arrow15,350 or 13,400 by 04/01/2023
  Up arrow940 or 860 by 04/01/2023
  Up arrow12,450 or 11,000 by 04/15/2023
  Up arrow4,100 or 3,800 by 04/01/2023
As of 03/21/2023
  Indus: 32,561 +316.02 +1.0%  
  Trans: 13,994 +229.26 +1.7%  
  Utils: 909 -22.36 -2.4%  
  Nasdaq: 11,860 +184.57 +1.6%  
  S&P 500: 4,003 +51.30 +1.3%  
YTD
-1.8%  
 +4.5%  
-6.0%  
 +13.3%  
 +4.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/14/2023  
  Down arrow30,900 or 33,100 by 04/01/2023
  Up arrow15,350 or 13,400 by 04/01/2023
  Up arrow940 or 860 by 04/01/2023
  Up arrow12,450 or 11,000 by 04/15/2023
  Up arrow4,100 or 3,800 by 04/01/2023

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Wednesday 3/22/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has signaled a bullish move has begun. The vertical green bar on the far right of the chart attests to that. It comes after a long downtrend that began in February. That move bottomed in March.

Because the indicator can change its mind for up to a week, it's too soon to declare the uptrend has staying power, but it looks promising.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 45% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 45%.
The fewest was 32% on 02/02/2023.
And the most was 81% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 520 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 23%.
The peak was 17% on 02/02/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

The red line is unchanged from a week ago but the blue line is slightly stronger. Like the prior chart, this chart shows that weakness began at the late January or early February peak.

What does all of this mean? The prior chart is bullish but it could be a premature signal. This chart is neutral, really. So it's difficult to say we'll recover from here, but that's my guess.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AYI, AMD, AJRD, ATSG, DOX, ABC, ACGL, ATO, AVA, BSET, BBY, BIO, BKH, CLS, CDAY, CVX, CLX, CMTL, CSGP, CRH, CROX, DHR, DVN, FANG, DTE, EIX, EFX, EXC, EXPI, XOM, FFIV, FDS, FICO, FE, FISV, FMC, FORM, FCX, HLIT, HOV, IDA, IDXX, INCY, ISRG, NVTA, KEYS, KLAC, LRCX, RAMP, MANH, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MGEE, MLKN, NTAP, NJR, NEE, NKE, NI, OMCL, OXM, PANW, PKE, PEN, PNW, POR, PPL, PEG, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, SMG, NOW, SKYW, SMAR, SWN, SR, SPSC, TPR, TRGP, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TWLO, VLO, VMI, VECO, WDAY, XEL, IYM, IYE, IDU, FDN, BOTZ, QQQ, IHF, SOXX, SLV, IEO, IHI, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, PEJ, PXJ, IEV, XLY, XLU, UNG, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/21/23. Slider Trading Quiz! Xcel Energy

The Dow climbed by 1.2% or 382.6 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 319 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 174 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 145 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 260/467 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/107 or 46.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Xcel Energy: XEL stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 101 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ATSG, AA, ALL, ABC, APOG, ATR, AIZ, BMI, BBBY, BERY, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CALM, CX, CENX, CF, CHKP, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CXW, CW, DFS, ^DJI, DRQ, EXP, EXC, FDP, IT, HAYN, HL, HSII, HP, HNI, HOV, IDA, NSP, IBP, PODD, IBKR, IPI, IRM, KBAL, KSS, LH, LLY, M, MGY, MAN, MTRN, MTRX, MLKN, MOS, PKG, PEN, PSTG, RGS, RLI, RES, SLGN, SXI, SSYS, SRDX, TPR, RIG, TWLO, SLCA, UNM, WERN, IYM, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IHF, IGE, EIS, EWJ, EWS, TUR, PBE, PXJ, IXN, XLP, XLE, XLB, UNG, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,766.97    
 Monthly S1  31,005.78  1,238.80   
 Weekly S2  31,116.89  111.12   
 Weekly S1  31,680.74  563.84   
 Daily S2  31,724.59  43.85   
 Low  31,872.33  147.74   
 Open  31,872.33  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  31,984.58  112.25   
 Weekly Pivot  31,993.66  9.08   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,028.09  34.42   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,076.20  48.11   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,124.31  48.11   
 Daily Pivot  32,132.33  8.01   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  32,244.58  112.25   
 High  32,280.07  35.49   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  32,392.32  112.25   
 Daily R2  32,540.07  147.74   
 Weekly R1  32,557.51  17.44   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly Pivot  32,668.62  111.12   
 Weekly R2  32,870.43  201.81   
 Monthly R1  33,907.43  1,036.99   
 Monthly R2  35,570.27  1,662.85   

Monday 3/20/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I don't show enough of the chart but it looks to me like the index could drop as far as B (where the uptrend began) to A (a minor high). That AB region could support price.

CD is a double top, confirmed when the index closes below the blue line, which is the lowest low between the two peaks.

Notice at D, a thick top, resists the pullback E, from going higher.

The drop from D to E to where it is now, is a pattern called a measured move down. That pattern suggests price will rise up to the retrace (the corrective phase of the MMD) which ends at E. That's about 32,900.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 90.5 points.
Tuesday: Up 336.26 points.
Wednesday: Down 280.83 points.
Thursday: Up 371.98 points.
Friday: Down 384.57 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 47.66 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 491.62 points or 4.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 55.05 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     7.2% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     1.4% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     5.2% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.
     13.3% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     6.6% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.
     3.2% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  31,447  31,655  31,936  32,143  32,425 
Weekly  30,989  31,426  31,866  32,302  32,743 
Monthly  29,639  30,751  32,541  33,652  35,443 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,868  3,892  3,926  3,950  3,983 
Weekly  3,741  3,829  3,897  3,984  4,052 
Monthly  3,611  3,764  3,962  4,115  4,313 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,445  11,538  11,655  11,748  11,866 
Weekly  10,672  11,151  11,462  11,941  12,252 
Monthly  10,473  11,052  11,562  12,140  12,650 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 100 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AMD, A, APD, AA, ATR, ANET, AVY, BMI, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BKNG, BMY, BR, BRKR, BLDR, CALM, CX, CNC, CNP, CENX, CDAY, CIEN, CLF, DSGR, DRQ, EXP, EL, EZPW, FDX, FDP, FRD, HAYN, HSII, HP, HSY, HOLX, HOV, HUBG, IBP, ITGR, IPI, IRM, JNJ, LH, LDOS, LNC, LMT, LOW, M, MGY, MAS, MTRN, MTRX, MRCY, MSFT, MOS, NFLX, JWN, NVDA, ORI, PCTY, PKI, DGX, RRC, RGS, RLI, ROL, ROP, RES, SMTC, SXI, TECH, TPX, RIG, TG, TWLO, SLCA, WERN, WSM, WOLF, IYM, IEZ, IYH, THD, PXJ, GLD, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Metals and Mining (Div.)
3. Metals and Mining (Div.)3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
4. Shoe4. Internet
5. Semiconductor5. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
6. Internet6. Shoe
7. Trucking/Transp. Leasing7. Apparel
8. Apparel8. Metal Fabricating
9. Retail Building Supply9. Machinery
10. Metal Fabricating10. Diversified Co.
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (West)50. Long ETFs
51. Insurance (Diversified)51. Chemical (Diversified)
52. Chemical (Diversified)52. Computer Software and Svcs
53. Medical Services53. Petroleum (Producing)
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Medical Services
55. Natural Gas (Distributor)55. Natural Gas (Distributor)
56. Electric Utility (East)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Healthcare Information57. Healthcare Information
58. Insurance (Life)58. Electric Utility (Central)
59. Petroleum (Producing)59. Electric Utility (East)
60. Natural Gas (Diversified)60. Natural Gas (Diversified)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book

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