Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 12/07/2022
  Indus: 33,598 +1.58 +0.0%  
  Trans: 13,768 -130.21 -0.9%  
  Utils: 973 -6.18 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 10,959 -56.34 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,934 -7.34 -0.2%  
YTD
-7.5%  
-16.4%  
-0.8%  
-30.0%  
-17.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/01/2022  
  Up arrow35,500 or 32,800 by 12/15/2022
  Down arrow13,400 or 14,500 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow12,000 or 10,600 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow4,250 or 3,850 by 12/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 12/5/22
As of 12/07/2022
  Indus: 33,598 +1.58 +0.0%  
  Trans: 13,768 -130.21 -0.9%  
  Utils: 973 -6.18 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 10,959 -56.34 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,934 -7.34 -0.2%  
YTD
-7.5%  
-16.4%  
-0.8%  
-30.0%  
-17.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/01/2022  
  Up arrow35,500 or 32,800 by 12/15/2022
  Down arrow13,400 or 14,500 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow12,000 or 10,600 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow4,250 or 3,850 by 12/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 12/5/22

Recent Headlines

Archives

Older Headlines


Thursday 12/8/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.5% or -56.34 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 365 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 179 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 186 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 51.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 248/438 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 69/141 or 48.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index is resting on a blue line of support, which I show in the chart. As strong as that support appears, this is the intraday scale, so it's not as robust as one might think (when compared to the daily or weekly scales).

Outlined in red is a symmetrical triangle. According to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition (#ad), a symmetrical triangle breaks out upward 60% of the time. That's on the daily scale and that's for a bull market. One can argue that it's an intraday scale in a bear market.

Regardless, the index is going to breakout of the triangle either upward or downward. I doubt if it'll shoot out the apex in a straight line but who knows?

The market might be in a holding pattern, waiting to see what the FED does next week about interest rates. My guess is they'll vote another 3/4% hike, the market will drop on the news, and post a nice recovery the next day. If that scenario plays out, I'll likely be in there buying securities. The recovery over the next few years is going to be tasty.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 100 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ADBE, ADTN, ATSG, ALK, DOX, AEP, AEL, APA, ASH, AZTA, BERY, BKNG, BRC, BBW, BLDR, BG, CPB, CF, CIEN, ED, CONN, CCRN, CSGS, DDS, DSGR, DRQ, EPAM, EQT, EZPW, FLS, GPS, HBI, HP, HD, HUBG, IDA, INTC, IVC, KBH, KSS, LZB, LH, LANC, RAMP, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MTRN, MGEE, MLKN, MOS, MUR, NOV, NTGR, JWN, OMCL, OTEX, OUT, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PG, RJF, RGS, RCKY, ROG, SEE, SWN, SR, SXI, SSYS, TDOC, TXN, TOL, RIG, VRSN, V, IYE, ITB, IGE, EWZ, EIS, EWS, EWT, QLD, IXC, IXN, ILF. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,638.91    
 Monthly S1  10,298.73  659.82   
 Weekly S2  10,547.50  248.77   
 Weekly S1  10,753.02  205.53   
 Daily S2  10,840.47  87.45   
 Daily S1  10,899.51  59.04   
 Low  10,910.62  11.11   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  10,922.75  12.13   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Close  10,958.55  35.80   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,959.97  1.42   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  10,963.95  3.98   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  10,969.66  5.71   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,975.21  5.55   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,990.46  15.24   
 Daily R1  11,028.70  38.24   
 High  11,039.81  11.11   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  11,098.85  59.04   
 Weekly Pivot  11,149.90  51.05   
 Weekly R1  11,355.42  205.53   
 Monthly R1  11,582.57  227.15   
 Weekly R2  11,752.30  169.73   
 Monthly R2  12,206.59  454.29   

Wednesday 12/7/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

A bearish signal appeared yesterday but it was probably because today's (Tuesday's) drop pulled down yesterday's results. That can happen up to a week (meaning signals can appear or disappear).

It looks like the bearish divergence with the index has taken hold and we'll see the indices drop, perhaps lasting until the FED meeting next week.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 53% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 51%.
The fewest was 24% on 01/04/2022.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 450 stocks in my database are down an average of 25% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 24%.
The peak was 13% on 01/04/2022.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both lines are worse this week compared to a week ago. They bounced off overhead resistance and now appear headed lower.

Both charts are bearish, too, so I'm looking for the indices to retrace some of their gains. We could see a third bottom form, but I don't see us getting that low. If it does form a 3rd bottom, expect it to take about 1.5 months to get there.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ADBE, ATSG, AKAM, DOX, AMGN, APA, AMAT, ATR, AWI, ASH, ADSK, AZTA, BMI, BERY, BIG, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BFH, CF, CIEN, CLNE, CLX, ED, CR, CSGS, DVN, DRQ, EPAM, EQT, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FRD, GPS, GE, GES, HBI, HAYN, HP, HD, HUBG, IBP, IBKR, IPG, IVC, NVTA, JNJ, K, KMT, KFRC, KLAC, KSS, LZB, LH, LEN, RAMP, LMT, MHO, MANH, MRO, MAS, MRK, MOS, MLI, NOV, NTGR, JWN, NOC, ASGN, OTEX, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PHM, RES, SLB, SEE, SMTC, SO, SWX, SR, SSYS, TECH, TXN, TKR, RIG, TREX, SLCA, UPS, VFC, V, WSO, WMB, WWW, IYE, IEZ, FXI, IAT, IGE, IHI, EWO, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWY, EWP, TUR, PXJ, IXC, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 12/6/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -1.4% or -482.78 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 205 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 86 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 119 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 58.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 254/456 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 49/104 or 47.1% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Teradyne: TER 2 stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 99 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, AMD, AKAM, AA, AEP, AEL, ABC, ANIK, APA, BCPC, BECN, BERY, BRC, CX, CENX, CF, CLNE, CMTL, ED, COP, CW, XRAY, DVN, DRQ, BOOM, XOM, FDS, FISV, FORM, GES, HAYN, HP, HD, HUBG, INTC, IPG, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, LH, RAMP, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MOS, MLI, NBR, NFG, NOV, JWN, OUT, PTEN, PYPL, DGX, ROG, RES, SLB, SAIC, SEIC, SWN, SCS, TEVA, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VEEV, VMC, WSO, WMB, WWW, IYE, IEZ, IHE, FXI, IAT, IGE, EWO, EIS, EWI, EPP, EWS, EWP, TUR, PBE, PXJ, PJP, XLE, UNG, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  30,554.76    
 Monthly S1  32,250.93  1,696.17   
 Weekly S2  33,030.39  779.46   
 Monthly Pivot  33,423.22  392.83   
 Weekly S1  33,488.74  65.52   
 Daily S2  33,554.29  65.55   
 Daily S1  33,750.70  196.40   
 Low  33,846.81  96.11   
 Close  33,947.10  100.29   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,033.58  86.48   
 Weekly Pivot  34,042.13  8.55   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  34,043.21  1.09   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,091.27  48.05   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,148.96  57.69   
 Daily R1  34,239.62  90.66   
 Open  34,335.73  96.11   
 High  34,335.73  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  34,500.48  164.75   
 Daily R2  34,532.13  31.65   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  35,053.87  521.73   
 Monthly R1  35,119.39  65.52   
 Monthly R2  36,291.68  1,172.29   

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notices: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases." Paid links).

My novels:  Bedroom to Boardroom book Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of chart patterns book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book Trading classic chart patterns book

Copyright © 2005-2022 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.
Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.
Home Advertise Contact Donate Links Privacy/Disclaimer