Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 09/09/2024
  Indus: 40,830 +484.18 +1.2%  
  Trans: 15,635 +208.10 +1.3%  
  Utils: 1,040 +11.07 +1.1%  
  Nasdaq: 16,885 +193.77 +1.2%  
  S&P 500: 5,471 +62.63 +1.2%  
YTD
 +8.3%  
-1.7%  
 +17.9%  
 +12.5%  
 +14.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 08/14/2024  
  Up arrow42,000 or 39,500 by 09/15/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,300 by 09/15/2024
  Up arrow1,100 or 1,000 by 09/15/2024
  Up arrow18,400 or 16,650 by 09/15/2024
  Up arrow5,750 or 5,375 by 09/15/2024
As of 09/09/2024
  Indus: 40,830 +484.18 +1.2%  
  Trans: 15,635 +208.10 +1.3%  
  Utils: 1,040 +11.07 +1.1%  
  Nasdaq: 16,885 +193.77 +1.2%  
  S&P 500: 5,471 +62.63 +1.2%  
YTD
 +8.3%  
-1.7%  
 +17.9%  
 +12.5%  
 +14.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 08/14/2024  
  Up arrow42,000 or 39,500 by 09/15/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,300 by 09/15/2024
  Up arrow1,100 or 1,000 by 09/15/2024
  Up arrow18,400 or 16,650 by 09/15/2024
  Up arrow5,750 or 5,375 by 09/15/2024

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Picture of Foresight book. Picture of 'Invest for two-comma wealth' book.

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Tuesday 9/10/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 1.2% or 484.18 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 326 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 180 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 146 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 55.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 294/536 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/116 or 46.6% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Yahoo (YHOO, Part 1) stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADBE, AEIS, AES, A, AKAM, AA, AMED, AEE, AEO, AXP, AFG, AGO, ATO, ADP, AZTA, BCPC, BZH, BIO, BKH, BA, CAL, CHD, CLX, CMTL, COST, COTY, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, DECK, ^DJT, ^DJI, DTE, EXP, EMR, EFX, EQT, FAST, FISV, FORM, FTNT, FNV, GAP, GILD, GFF, GES, HTLD, HL, HNI, HOV, HWM, HUM, JBHT, HURC, INTU, ISRG, KMT, KFRC, LZB, LRCX, M, MANH, MLM, MTRN, MU, MSFT, MOS, NFLX, NEU, JWN, NOVT, NUS, NTNX, ORI, OR, OUT, OMI, PATK, PCTY, PETS, PFE, PLXS, PG, KWR, QCOM, RJF, ROK, SBH, SLB, SMG, SLGN, STR, SCCO, SWN, TRGP, TDOC, TPX, TXN, TKR, UHAL, UNH, VECO, V, VC, VMC, WAT, WERN, WEX, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IYK, DDM, BOTZ, IYH, MXI, EWA, EWO, EWC, ECH, EIS, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWL, PPA, DBA, PBE, ROBO, XLF, XLI, XLB, XAR, USO, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,218.75    
 Monthly S1  39,024.17  1,805.42   
 Weekly S2  39,679.86  655.68   
 Weekly S1  40,254.72  574.87   
 Daily S2  40,300.45  45.73   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Monthly Pivot  40,304.69  4.24   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  40,518.06  213.37   
 Open  40,555.11  37.05   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  40,565.02  9.91   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  40,702.25  137.23   
 50% Down from Intraday High  40,759.15  56.89   
 Daily Pivot  40,782.63  23.48   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  40,816.05  33.42   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  40,829.59  13.54   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  40,872.20  42.61   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 High  41,000.24  128.04   
 Daily R1  41,047.20  46.96   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  41,264.81  217.61   
 Weekly R1  41,447.06  182.25   
 Weekly R2  42,064.54  617.47   
 Monthly R1  42,110.11  45.57   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  43,390.63  1,280.52   

Monday 9/9/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I've highlighted twin peak patterns (double tops). The first is at A. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when it closes below the red line.

After confirmation, the index makes a swift drop. In fact, all three double tops decline after confirmation, and the drop is steep.

Pattern B is tall. After dropping so far to confirm the pattern, there's not much left of a desire to push the index much lower. Maybe it's more accurate that the bulls gather and stop the decline.

At C, I highlight the most recent twin peak. It's height is small compared to the others (a bit smaller than A). Maybe that suggests we won't have much of a drop.

Indeed, based on support at the circle, I think the index will reverse at the green line. In other words, concerns about the economy won't hold the index down much longer.

$ $ $

I added new stock, ETF, and cryptocurrency tests to the outside days article.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 626.15 points.
Wednesday: Up 38.04 points.
Thursday: Down 219.22 points.
Friday: Down 410.34 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 1217.67 points or 2.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 1022.79 points or 5.8%.
The S&P 500 index was down 239.98 points or 4.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.0% down from the high of 41,585.21 on 08/30/2024.
     8.7% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     10.6% down from the high of 18,671.07 on 07/11/2024.
     15.3% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     4.6% down from the high of 5,669.67 on 07/16/2024.
     15.5% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  39,839  40,092  40,551  40,804  41,263 
Weekly  39,518  39,932  40,711  41,124  41,903 
Monthly  37,057  38,701  40,143  41,787  43,229 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,325  5,367  5,445  5,486  5,564 
Weekly  5,257  5,333  5,478  5,554  5,700 
Monthly  4,861  5,135  5,393  5,667  5,925 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  16,344  16,517  16,842  17,015  17,340 
Weekly  16,065  16,378  16,982  17,295  17,898 
Monthly  14,497  15,594  16,806  17,903  19,115 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 220 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, ACIW, AEIS, AES, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, ALB, AA, AEO, AEP, AIG, AMWD, AME, APH, AAPL, ADM, ANET, AWI, AVA, BCPC, BERY, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BAH, BCO, BR, BRKR, BG, CACI, CDNS, CAL, CPB, CE, CX, CHD, CLF, CNA, CGNX, CAG, GLW, COTY, CCRN, CCK, CTS, XRAY, DFS, ^DJI, DTE, EXP, EIX, EOG, EL, EXC, EXPD, XOM, FDS, FICO, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, GAP, GNW, GPN, GL, GOOGL, GES, HE, HTLD, HL, HSIC, HSY, HOV, HUN, HURC, ILMN, IIIN, INTC, IPI, INTU, JKHY, KELYA, KMT, KLAC, LHX, LRCX, RAMP, LMT, LOW, MANH, MLM, MA, MTRN, META, MSFT, MLKN, MS, MOS, ^IXIC, NTGR, NEE, NWPX, NOVT, NTNX, NVDA, ORI, OTEX, ORCL, OR, PANW, PKE, PATK, PCTY, PRFT, PETS, PLXS, POR, PINC, QTWO, KWR, RJF, RTX, RGA, ROK, ROST, CRM, SBH, SLB, SCHW, SMG, SMTC, SCI, NOW, SHOP, STR, LUV, SWX, SWN, SNPS, TRGP, TDOC, TPX, TTD, TRV, TWLO, UHAL, UGI, VECO, VC, VMC, WAT, WERN, WPM, WMB, WWW, WDAY, ITA, IYM, IYK, IYC, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IYH, IGV, IXC, MXI, ILF, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWJ, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWL, EWT, THD, IBB, DBA, PBE, PHO, XLY, XLV, XLB, XAR, USO, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Electric Utility (East)1. Electric Utility (East)
2. Electric Utility (West)2. Homebuilding
3. Homebuilding3. Electric Utility (Central)
4. Electric Utility (Central)4. Computers and Peripherals
5. Natural Gas (Diversified)5. Electric Utility (West)
6. Retail (Special Lines)6. Natural Gas (Diversified)
7. Insurance (Diversified)7. Advertising
8. Household Products8. Metals and Mining (Div.)
9. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)9. Retail (Special Lines)
10. Medical Services10. Industrial Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Specialty)50. Petroleum (Producing)
51. Building Materials51. Building Materials
52. Apparel52. Chemical (Specialty)
53. Petroleum (Producing)53. Computer Software and Svcs
54. Cement and Aggregates54. Apparel
55. Semiconductor55. Cement and Aggregates
56. Human Resources56. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
57. Semiconductor Cap Equip.57. Human Resources
58. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment58. Short ETFs
59. Trucking/Transp. Leasing59. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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Friday 9/6/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I added new stock, ETF, and cryptocurrency tests to the inside days article.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 193 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AEIS, AFL, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALKS, AMED, AEE, AEO, AFG, AIG, AMGN, AMN, AR, ADM, ANET, AWI, ASH, AGO, ATO, AVA, BECN, BERY, BIG, BIO, BKH, BAH, BFH, BR, BG, CAL, CE, CNC, CF, CHD, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CCRN, CW, XRAY, DFS, ^DJI, DTE, EXP, EIX, EL, EG, EXC, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FAST, FMC, FTNT, FTV, FWRD, GIS, GNW, GPN, GL, GMS, GES, HE, HTLD, HL, HELE, HD, HOV, HUBG, HURC, INCY, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IPI, JKHY, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, LHX, LH, LEG, RAMP, LMT, L, LOW, LXU, MGY, MRO, MKTX, MLM, MA, MTRN, MRCY, MLKN, MS, MOS, NTGR, NEU, NEE, NWPX, NTNX, ORI, ASGN, ORCL, PATK, PRFT, PETS, POR, PINC, PRU, RJF, RTX, RGA, RNG, RES, ^GSPC, SLB, SCHW, SMG, SIGI, SRE, SLGN, STR, SWN, TDOC, TKR, TOL, TREX, UGI, UPS, UNH, VMI, VECO, V, VMC, WRB, WAT, WERN, WU, WEX, WSM, WWW, ITA, IYK, IYE, IDU, DDM, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IEV, IXC, MXI, IGE, ITB, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, IBB, PBE, PHO, GLD, XAR, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Foresight (#Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMDPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Semiconductor
ALKUgly double bottom      08/06/202408/22/2024Air Transport
AAPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Aerospace/Defense
AMATPipe top      08/12/202408/19/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BGHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/05/202408/20/2024Food Processing
CALPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Shoe
CLNEHead-and-shoulders top      08/13/202408/26/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
EDHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/09/202408/28/2024Electric Utility (East)
COPPipe bottom      07/29/202408/05/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
CRHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202408/30/2024Cement and Aggregates
CROXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      08/23/202408/29/2024Shoe
DVNDiamond top      08/09/202408/30/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
DOVDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202408/30/2024Machinery
EXPPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Cement and Aggregates
EMNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202408/30/2024Chemical (Diversified)
ELVPipe bottom      07/15/202407/22/2024Medical Services
FLSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/18/202407/30/2024Machinery
GGGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/26/202408/30/2024Machinery
HLPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
HOVPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Homebuilding
HUNPipe bottom      08/05/202408/12/2024Chemical (Specialty)
LRCXPipe top      08/12/202408/19/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LOWBroadening top      07/18/202408/26/2024Retail Building Supply
MROPipe bottom      07/29/202408/05/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
MLMPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Cement and Aggregates
MUPipe top      08/12/202408/19/2024Semiconductor
NVDAPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Semiconductor
SAIATriple bottom      08/05/202408/30/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SCHWTriangle, symmetrical      08/15/202409/05/2024Securities Brokerage
STRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/15/202408/26/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
SCCODouble Top, Eve and Adam      08/15/202408/26/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
SWNHead-and-shoulders top      08/19/202408/30/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
SPSCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/09/202408/29/2024E-Commerce
TDOCDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      08/14/202408/28/2024Healthcare Information
TREXPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Building Materials
UPSTriangle, symmetrical      08/16/202409/05/2024Air Transport
VMIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/15/202408/26/2024Metal Fabricating
VMCPipe top      08/19/202408/26/2024Cement and Aggregates
WATBroadening top      08/16/202409/04/2024Precision Instrument

 

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