Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 12/01/2023
  Indus: 36,246 +294.61 +0.8%  
  Trans: 15,464 +445.25 +3.0%  
  Utils: 876 +9.25 +1.1%  
  Nasdaq: 14,305 +78.81 +0.6%  
  S&P 500: 4,595 +26.83 +0.6%  
YTD
 +9.3%  
 +15.5%  
-9.4%  
 +36.7%  
 +19.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/29/2023  
  Down arrow34,500 or 36,400 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow14,500 or 15,800 by 12/15/2023
  Up arrow900 or 825 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow13,700 or 14,450 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow4,450 or 4,650 by 12/15/2023
As of 12/01/2023
  Indus: 36,246 +294.61 +0.8%  
  Trans: 15,464 +445.25 +3.0%  
  Utils: 876 +9.25 +1.1%  
  Nasdaq: 14,305 +78.81 +0.6%  
  S&P 500: 4,595 +26.83 +0.6%  
YTD
 +9.3%  
 +15.5%  
-9.4%  
 +36.7%  
 +19.7%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/29/2023  
  Down arrow34,500 or 36,400 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow14,500 or 15,800 by 12/15/2023
  Up arrow900 or 825 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow13,700 or 14,450 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow4,450 or 4,650 by 12/15/2023

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Monday 12/4/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale, but there's not much to talk about.

At A, we have overhead resistance that I'm still waiting for it to activate. I expect it to turn the index down, but it hasn't so far.

How far could we drop? I look for a retrace to B, the top of the gap. It might drop lower, but it's a good target.

So what will happen in the coming week? That's hard to say. The Dow industrials are shooting higher. They have zipped above resistance. The Nasdaq looks like this chart. It's mired in resistance, but it could break through and soar like the Dow.

It might look like the Industrials a week from now, or it might retrace. We'll have to wait and see. To be objective, it will probably move higher.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 56.68 points.
Tuesday: Up 83.51 points.
Wednesday: Up 13.44 points.
Thursday: Up 520.47 points.
Friday: Up 294.61 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 855.35 points or 2.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 54.18 points or 0.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 35.29 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 36,264.85 on 12/01/2023.
     15.3% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     1.0% down from the high of 14,446.55 on 07/19/2023.
     39.4% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     0.3% down from the high of 4,607.07 on 07/27/2023.
     21.1% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  35,791  36,018  36,142  36,369  36,492 
Weekly  34,946  35,596  35,930  36,580  36,915 
Monthly  31,008  33,627  34,946  37,565  38,884 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,538  4,566  4,583  4,611  4,628 
Weekly  4,515  4,555  4,577  4,617  4,639 
Monthly  3,937  4,266  4,433  4,761  4,928 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,074  14,189  14,251  14,366  14,428 
Weekly  13,989  14,147  14,285  14,443  14,581 
Monthly  11,954  13,129  13,776  14,952  15,599 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 196 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ABM, ADTN, AES, A, APD, ALRM, ALB, ALGT, DOX, AEE, AEO, AEL, AMAT, ASH, AVNT, BALL, BSET, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BFH, BRKR, BLDR, CDNS, CAL, COR, CDAY, CRL, CINF, CGNX, CTSH, CMCO, CSGP, CSGS, CMI, DDS, ^DJT, EMN, ELV, EVH, EXPI, EZPW, FAST, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FLEX, FTNT, FWRD, FCX, FDP, FRD, GPS, GNW, GPN, GS, THG, HAYN, HTLD, HELE, HP, HON, DHI, IDA, IDXX, INFN, IBP, TILE, NVTA, JAZZ, JBLU, JNJ, K, KELYA, KMT, KMB, KLIC, LZB, LRCX, LEN, LXU, M, MGY, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MKTX, MTRN, MRCY, MLKN, MLI, ^IXIC, NJR, NWL, NWPX, NOVT, NUS, OXY, ORI, OLN, ASGN, ON, ORCL, OXM, PKE, PCTY, PEN, PETS, PFE, PLXS, PGR, QTWO, QCOM, R, SAND, SMTC, SHOP, SWX, SR, SSYS, SRDX, TECH, TFX, TPX, TER, TTD, TMO, TG, TREX, TWLO, SLCA, VFC, VEEV, VRSN, VRTX, VMC, WAT, WLK, WEX, WMB, WOLF, WWW, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IYC, IYE, FTEC, FDN, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IEV, IGV, MXI, IXN, IEO, EWO, EWQ, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWS, EWY, THD, EWU, PEJ, ROBO, XLY, XLE, XHB, USO, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail (Special Lines)1. Retail (Special Lines)
2. Shoe2. Computer Software and Svcs
3. Apparel3. Shoe
4. Building Materials4. Homebuilding
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. IT Services
6. Homebuilding6. Building Materials
7. Computer Software and Svcs7. Insurance (Life)
8. Insurance (Life)8. Furn/Home Furnishings
9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing9. Internet
10. IT Services10. E-Commerce
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Metal Fabricating50. Electric Utility (East)
51. Electric Utility (East)51. Healthcare Information
52. Advertising52. Electric Utility (Central)
53. Household Products53. Household Products
54. Chemical (Diversified)54. Metal Fabricating
55. Healthcare Information55. Chemical (Diversified)
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Medical Supplies57. Medical Supplies
58. Toiletries/Cosmetics58. Short ETFs
59. Food Processing59. Food Processing
60. Short ETFs60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/1/23. 2023 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

The November forecast sent you to the October one. Oops. Here's the corrected link: November 2023 forecast

$ $ $

I'll be releasing another version of Patternz (8.0.0.4) soon to correct a few bugs.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ALRM, AMZN, APH, ACGL, ASH, AIZ, BALL, BIG, BA, BKNG, BMY, BBW, CDNS, CAL, CHD, CNX, CL, CMTL, CONN, CXW, CSGS, CTS, CW, XRAY, DDS, DFS, ^DJI, DTE, EPAM, EG, EXC, EXPD, FICO, FARO, FAST, FDX, FIS, FLEX, FTNT, GME, GNW, GMS, GOOGL, GFF, HBI, HAYN, HP, INFN, IBP, JKHY, KBH, K, KEYS, KMB, KSS, LZB, M, MANH, MKTX, MRTN, MLM, MTRN, MTRX, MGEE, MCO, NFLX, NTNX, OXY, OMI, PDCO, PEN, PETS, PLXS, PG, QTWO, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, RGS, RLI, ROK, RES, CRM, SMG, SIGI, SHW, STR, SWX, SWN, SXI, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TER, TKR, TZOO, TG, TWLO, VC, WMT, WU, WPM, WMB, WWD, DDM, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IXC, EWK, EWH, EWW, THD, TUR, DBA, PBE, PJP, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Thursday 11/30/23. Bitcoin (BTC-USD). Rising Wedge

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.2% or -23.27 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 548 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 287 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 261 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 52.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 266/474 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 74/155 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily chart.

A cup with handle appears as a rounded turn in red on the chart. Yes, it's not a smooth turn and the handle is wimpy. But the move after completion shows a good rise.

Now we have a bearish chart pattern (where the cup was bullish). It's called a rising wedge. I show that at A. Rising wedges breakout downward 60% of the time, so that's the way to bet.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 198 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACIW, AMD, AKAM, ALRM, ALGT, AYX, AMZN, AEE, AEO, AXP, APH, ANIK, AR, AAPL, ACGL, AVNT, AXS, BCPC, BALL, BSET, BKNG, BAH, CDNS, CAL, CE, CLS, CNC, CNP, CVX, CTAS, CNA, CTSH, ED, CXW, COST, CR, CROX, CCK, CSGS, CTS, CMI, DFS, ^DJU, DTE, DUK, EBAY, EIX, ELV, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EG, EVRG, EXC, EXPI, FFIV, FARO, FIVN, GME, GPN, GL, GOOGL, GES, HLIT, HAYN, HP, HD, HON, HWM, HURC, IBP, INTC, INTU, IRM, JBLU, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, KLIC, LAMR, LDOS, LNC, LMT, L, MTSI, M, MGY, MANH, MCHX, MKTX, MAS, MTRN, META, MGEE, MS, MYGN, NFLX, NTGR, NTAP, NKE, NI, JWN, NWPX, NTNX, OXY, OGE, OTEX, PATK, PDCO, PCTY, PRFT, PXD, PLXS, PPG, PFG, PG, PRU, QCOM, RRC, RGA, ROL, ROST, CRM, SBH, SAND, SAIC, SMG, SRE, SCI, SLGN, SKX, SMAR, SO, LUV, SWX, SWN, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TFX, TMO, TJX, TSCO, TDG, TREX, UGI, VRSN, WMT, WU, WOLF, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, IYK, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, IXC, SOXX, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWT, PPA, ROBO, XLP, XLU, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,904.90    
 Monthly S1  13,081.70  1,176.79   
 Monthly Pivot  13,720.65  638.96   
 Weekly S2  14,025.36  304.70   
 Daily S2  14,134.54  109.18   
 Weekly S1  14,141.92  7.39   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  14,196.51  54.59   
 Low  14,247.89  51.38   
 Weekly Pivot  14,250.77  2.88   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Close  14,258.49  7.72   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  14,309.87  51.38   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,314.87  5.00   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,335.55  20.69   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,356.24  20.69   
 Open  14,367.11  10.87   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  14,367.33  0.22   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  14,371.84  4.51   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  14,423.22  51.38   
 Weekly R2  14,476.18  52.96   
 Daily R2  14,485.20  9.02   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  14,897.45  412.25   
 Monthly R2  15,536.40  638.96   

 

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book

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