Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 03/27/2024
  Indus: 39,760 +477.75 +1.2%  
  Trans: 16,029 +177.70 +1.1%  
  Utils: 875 +23.30 +2.7%  
  Nasdaq: 16,400 +83.82 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,248 +44.91 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.5%  
 +0.8%  
-0.8%  
 +9.2%  
 +10.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024
As of 03/27/2024
  Indus: 39,760 +477.75 +1.2%  
  Trans: 16,029 +177.70 +1.1%  
  Utils: 875 +23.30 +2.7%  
  Nasdaq: 16,400 +83.82 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,248 +44.91 +0.9%  
YTD
 +5.5%  
 +0.8%  
-0.8%  
 +9.2%  
 +10.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/13/2024  
  Up arrow40,000 or 38,500 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,300 or 15,350 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 830 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow16,600 or 15,200 by 04/01/2024
  Up arrow5,350 or 5,100 by 04/01/2024

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Thursday 3/28/24. Ethereum Review

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.5% or 83.82 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 589 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 397 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 192 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 67.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 274/484 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 76/162 or 46.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Ethereum.

$ $ $

The chart shows Ethereum on the daily scale.

After making a strong push higher from the low at A to the peak at B, the cryptocurrency retraced to C. That's what I've expected to see happen in the major indices (Dow industrials, Nasdaq, and so on), but those are stubborn and haven't complied.

The currency has climbed from C to approach what I believe will be a peak at D. The D peak will likely remain below the top at B, so watch for that. After peaking, I expect it to drop, as the green line shows.

$ $ $

I added a trading lesson to cup with handle patterns. I found price retraces 47% of the time after a breakout, dropping substantially. That's something traders should know. The link will take you there for your viewing pleasure. Smiley

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 183 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AES, AKAM, ALK, ALGT, AXP, AR, ARCB, ASH, AGO, BAX, BIG, BMRN, BA, BOOT, BRC, CBT, CPB, CLS, CX, CNC, CNP, CNX, CL, ED, CONN, COP, GLW, COTY, CRH, CCK, XRAY, DVN, ^DJU, ^DJI, DRQ, DTE, ELV, WIRE, EQT, EVRG, EVH, XOM, FFIV, FICO, FARO, FDX, FE, FIVN, FLEX, GPN, GFS, THG, HLIT, HELE, HNI, HON, HOV, HUN, IDA, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, ITGR, KALU, KELYA, KSS, LH, LEG, LDOS, LEN, LNC, MGY, MRO, MTRN, MRK, MLKN, MUR, NFG, NEE, NKE, NI, NVDA, OGE, ORI, OMC, OTEX, PANW, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PNW, PXD, PLXS, POR, PPL, PSTG, RRC, RLI, RCKY, ROP, R, SLB, SRE, SMTC, SLGN, SMAR, LUV, SWX, SWN, SR, SPSC, SUM, TPR, TGT, TTD, TMO, TJX, TZOO, UHAL, UIS, VMI, VECO, VRTX, VC, WRB, WSO, WEX, WPM, WOLF, IYK, IYE, IEZ, DDM, QTEC, ICF, IHF, SOXX, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWK, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWS, EWP, EWL, THD, EWU, PPA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, XLE, XLK, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

Top

© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,042.80    
 Weekly S2  15,709.75  666.95   
 Monthly S1  15,721.16  11.41   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  16,054.63  333.47   
 Monthly Pivot  16,130.01  75.38   
 Daily S2  16,217.52  87.51   
 Low  16,279.17  61.65   
 Weekly Pivot  16,296.75  17.58   
 Daily S1  16,308.52  11.77   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,337.48  28.96   
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,355.50  18.01   
 Daily Pivot  16,370.17  14.67   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,373.51  3.34   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  16,399.52  26.01   
 Open  16,424.76  25.24   
 High  16,431.82  7.06   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  16,461.17  29.35   
 Daily R2  16,522.82  61.65   
 Weekly R1  16,641.63  118.81   
 Monthly R1  16,808.37  166.74   
 Weekly R2  16,883.75  75.38   
 Monthly R2  17,217.22  333.47   

Wednesday 3/27/24. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This is a broken record, but I'm still waiting for the indices to make a big retrace. They are overdue.

The CPI shows a neutral rating. Using the right scale, I'm looking for a retrace back to 288 (about the level of early January).

I'm not saying the retrace has begun. I've been waiting for it for a few months now and it hasn't happened. Plus, I don't know if it'll really drop that far.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 22% on 03/21/2024.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 514 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 12% on 03/21/2024.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

Both lines show no change from a week ago.

The overall trend, however, is upward from the November low.

Unless something changes, I expect the uptrend to continue. Just keep in mind that a retrace can begin at any time.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 166 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AES, ALGT, AEL, AXP, AR, AON, AMAT, ARCB, ADM, ASH, BMI, BIG, BIO, BKH, BA, CLS, CX, COR, CVX, CNX, CMTL, CAG, CONN, XRAY, FANG, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EQT, EVH, XOM, FICO, FARO, FDX, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FTNT, FCX, GNW, GFS, GL, GPRO, HLIT, HELE, HP, HD, HOV, ILMN, INCY, INFN, ITGR, TILE, JBLU, KLAC, KSS, LRCX, LAMR, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, LPLA, LXU, MTSI, MANH, MKTX, MGEE, MUR, NBR, NFG, NOV, NFLX, NTGR, NJR, NEE, NOVT, NVDA, OXY, OMCL, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PXD, PFG, PEG, PSTG, QTWO, RRC, RTX, ROP, RGLD, RES, SLB, STR, SMAR, SCCO, LUV, SSYS, SUM, TGT, TDOC, TER, TXN, TTD, RIG, TZOO, TREX, TWLO, UIS, UPS, VECO, WRB, WOLF, ZBRA, IYM, IYE, IEZ, IDU, FTEC, FXI, QQQ, IYH, IYZ, IXC, MXI, IXN, IEO, EWA, EWK, ECH, EWG, EZA, QLD, SSO, ROBO, XLE, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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Tuesday 3/26/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.4% or -162.26 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 951 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 481 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 470 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 284/515 or 55.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/113 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring ascending broadening wedges.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, A, ALL, DOX, AEP, AME, AMN, APH, ATR, ARW, ATO, ADP, BMI, BAX, BIIB, BKH, BKNG, BFH, BR, BBW, CPB, CX, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CHD, CNX, CL, COTY, XRAY, FANG, DFS, DSGR, DRQ, EBAY, ECL, EIX, EL, EVRG, EXPI, XOM, FARO, FDX, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FTV, FNV, IT, GMS, GPRO, HE, HQY, HP, HWM, HUM, JBHT, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, IPG, JBLU, KALU, KFRC, LHX, LANC, MHO, MRCY, MGEE, MCO, MS, MUR, NJR, NEU, NKE, NVDA, OMC, OMI, PKG, PKE, PTEN, PEN, PXD, PSTG, RL, RRC, RJF, RGS, RHI, ROST, CRM, SBH, SEE, SKYW, SCCO, SWN, SXI, TGT, TFX, TTD, TKR, TJX, TZOO, TREX, VRSN, WAT, WERN, ZBRA, IYC, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWH, THD, PPA, DBA, XLF. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

Top

© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,629.95    
 Weekly S2  38,192.90  562.95   
 Monthly S1  38,471.80  278.90   
 Weekly S1  38,753.27  281.47   
 Monthly Pivot  39,180.42  427.15   
 Daily S2  39,212.47  32.05   
 Daily S1  39,263.05  50.58   
 Low  39,296.03  32.98   
 Close  39,313.64  17.61   
 Weekly Pivot  39,321.16  7.52   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  39,346.61  25.45   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  39,347.27  0.66   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  39,363.10  15.83   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  39,378.93  15.83   
 Daily R1  39,397.20  18.27   
 Open  39,410.54  13.34   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  39,430.17  19.63   
 Daily R2  39,480.75  50.58   
 Weekly R1  39,881.53  400.78   
 Monthly R1  40,022.27  140.73   
 Weekly R2  40,449.42  427.16   
 Monthly R2  40,730.89  281.47   

 

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