As of 03/21/2023   Indus: 32,561 +316.02 +1.0%     Trans: 13,994 +229.26 +1.7%     Utils: 909 -22.36 -2.4%     Nasdaq: 11,860 +184.57 +1.6%     S&P 500: 4,003 +51.30 +1.3%	YTD -1.8%    +4.5%   -6.0%    +13.3%    +4.3%	Targets    Overview: 02/14/2023     30,900 or 33,100 by 04/01/2023   15,350 or 13,400 by 04/01/2023   940 or 860 by 04/01/2023   12,450 or 11,000 by 04/15/2023   4,100 or 3,800 by 04/01/2023
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 3/20/23

As of 03/21/2023   Indus: 32,561 +316.02 +1.0%     Trans: 13,994 +229.26 +1.7%     Utils: 909 -22.36 -2.4%     Nasdaq: 11,860 +184.57 +1.6%     S&P 500: 4,003 +51.30 +1.3%	YTD -1.8%    +4.5%   -6.0%    +13.3%    +4.3%
Targets    Overview: 02/14/2023     30,900 or 33,100 by 04/01/2023   15,350 or 13,400 by 04/01/2023   940 or 860 by 04/01/2023   12,450 or 11,000 by 04/15/2023   4,100 or 3,800 by 04/01/2023
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 3/20/23

Wednesday 3/22/23. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has signaled a bullish move has begun. The vertical green bar on the far right of the chart attests to that. It comes after a long downtrend that began in February. That move bottomed in March.

Because the indicator can change its mind for up to a week, it's too soon to declare the uptrend has staying power, but it looks promising.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The red line is unchanged from a week ago but the blue line is slightly stronger. Like the prior chart, this chart shows that weakness began at the late January or early February peak.

What does all of this mean? The prior chart is bullish but it could be a premature signal. This chart is neutral, really. So it's difficult to say we'll recover from here, but that's my guess.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AYI, AMD, AJRD, ATSG, DOX, ABC, ACGL, ATO, AVA, BSET, BBY, BIO, BKH, CLS, CDAY, CVX, CLX, CMTL, CSGP, CRH, CROX, DHR, DVN, FANG, DTE, EIX, EFX, EXC, EXPI, XOM, FFIV, FDS, FICO, FE, FISV, FMC, FORM, FCX, HLIT, HOV, IDA, IDXX, INCY, ISRG, NVTA, KEYS, KLAC, LRCX, RAMP, MANH, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MGEE, MLKN, NTAP, NJR, NEE, NKE, NI, OMCL, OXM, PANW, PKE, PEN, PNW, POR, PPL, PEG, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, SMG, NOW, SKYW, SMAR, SWN, SR, SPSC, TPR, TRGP, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TWLO, VLO, VMI, VECO, WDAY, XEL, IYM, IYE, IDU, FDN, BOTZ, QQQ, IHF, SOXX, SLV, IEO, IHI, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, PEJ, PXJ, IEV, XLY, XLU, UNG, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 3/21/23. Slider Trading Quiz! Xcel Energy

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Xcel Energy: XEL stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 101 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ATSG, AA, ALL, ABC, APOG, ATR, AIZ, BMI, BBBY, BERY, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CALM, CX, CENX, CF, CHKP, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CXW, CW, DFS, ^DJI, DRQ, EXP, EXC, FDP, IT, HAYN, HL, HSII, HP, HNI, HOV, IDA, NSP, IBP, PODD, IBKR, IPI, IRM, KBAL, KSS, LH, LLY, M, MGY, MAN, MTRN, MTRX, MLKN, MOS, PKG, PEN, PSTG, RGS, RLI, RES, SLGN, SXI, SSYS, SRDX, TPR, RIG, TWLO, SLCA, UNM, WERN, IYM, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IHF, IGE, EIS, EWJ, EWS, TUR, PBE, PXJ, IXN, XLP, XLE, XLB, UNG, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 3/20/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I don't show enough of the chart but it looks to me like the index could drop as far as B (where the uptrend began) to A (a minor high). That AB region could support price.

CD is a double top, confirmed when the index closes below the blue line, which is the lowest low between the two peaks.

Notice at D, a thick top, resists the pullback E, from going higher.

The drop from D to E to where it is now, is a pattern called a measured move down. That pattern suggests price will rise up to the retrace (the corrective phase of the MMD) which ends at E. That's about 32,900.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 100 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AMD, A, APD, AA, ATR, ANET, AVY, BMI, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BKNG, BMY, BR, BRKR, BLDR, CALM, CX, CNC, CNP, CENX, CDAY, CIEN, CLF, DSGR, DRQ, EXP, EL, EZPW, FDX, FDP, FRD, HAYN, HSII, HP, HSY, HOLX, HOV, HUBG, IBP, ITGR, IPI, IRM, JNJ, LH, LDOS, LNC, LMT, LOW, M, MGY, MAS, MTRN, MTRX, MRCY, MSFT, MOS, NFLX, JWN, NVDA, ORI, PCTY, PKI, DGX, RRC, RGS, RLI, ROL, ROP, RES, SMTC, SXI, TECH, TPX, RIG, TG, TWLO, SLCA, WERN, WSM, WOLF, IYM, IEZ, IYH, THD, PXJ, GLD, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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