As of 12/01/2023   Indus: 36,246 +294.61 +0.8%     Trans: 15,464 +445.25 +3.0%     Utils: 876 +9.25 +1.1%     Nasdaq: 14,305 +78.81 +0.6%     S&P 500: 4,595 +26.83 +0.6%	YTD  +9.3%    +15.5%   -9.4%    +36.7%    +19.7%	Targets    Overview: 11/29/2023     34,500 or 36,400 by 12/15/2023   14,500 or 15,800 by 12/15/2023   900 or 825 by 12/15/2023   13,700 or 14,450 by 12/15/2023   4,450 or 4,650 by 12/15/2023
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/17/23

As of 12/01/2023   Indus: 36,246 +294.61 +0.8%     Trans: 15,464 +445.25 +3.0%     Utils: 876 +9.25 +1.1%     Nasdaq: 14,305 +78.81 +0.6%     S&P 500: 4,595 +26.83 +0.6%	YTD  +9.3%    +15.5%   -9.4%    +36.7%    +19.7%
Targets    Overview: 11/29/2023     34,500 or 36,400 by 12/15/2023   14,500 or 15,800 by 12/15/2023   900 or 825 by 12/15/2023   13,700 or 14,450 by 12/15/2023   4,450 or 4,650 by 12/15/2023
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/17/23

Monday 12/4/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale, but there's not much to talk about.

At A, we have overhead resistance that I'm still waiting for it to activate. I expect it to turn the index down, but it hasn't so far.

How far could we drop? I look for a retrace to B, the top of the gap. It might drop lower, but it's a good target.

So what will happen in the coming week? That's hard to say. The Dow industrials are shooting higher. They have zipped above resistance. The Nasdaq looks like this chart. It's mired in resistance, but it could break through and soar like the Dow.

It might look like the Industrials a week from now, or it might retrace. We'll have to wait and see. To be objective, it will probably move higher.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 196 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ABM, ADTN, AES, A, APD, ALRM, ALB, ALGT, DOX, AEE, AEO, AEL, AMAT, ASH, AVNT, BALL, BSET, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BFH, BRKR, BLDR, CDNS, CAL, COR, CDAY, CRL, CINF, CGNX, CTSH, CMCO, CSGP, CSGS, CMI, DDS, ^DJT, EMN, ELV, EVH, EXPI, EZPW, FAST, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FLEX, FTNT, FWRD, FCX, FDP, FRD, GPS, GNW, GPN, GS, THG, HAYN, HTLD, HELE, HP, HON, DHI, IDA, IDXX, INFN, IBP, TILE, NVTA, JAZZ, JBLU, JNJ, K, KELYA, KMT, KMB, KLIC, LZB, LRCX, LEN, LXU, M, MGY, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MKTX, MTRN, MRCY, MLKN, MLI, ^IXIC, NJR, NWL, NWPX, NOVT, NUS, OXY, ORI, OLN, ASGN, ON, ORCL, OXM, PKE, PCTY, PEN, PETS, PFE, PLXS, PGR, QTWO, QCOM, R, SAND, SMTC, SHOP, SWX, SR, SSYS, SRDX, TECH, TFX, TPX, TER, TTD, TMO, TG, TREX, TWLO, SLCA, VFC, VEEV, VRSN, VRTX, VMC, WAT, WLK, WEX, WMB, WOLF, WWW, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IYC, IYE, FTEC, FDN, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IEV, IGV, MXI, IXN, IEO, EWO, EWQ, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWS, EWY, THD, EWU, PEJ, ROBO, XLY, XLE, XHB, USO, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 12/1/23. 2023 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

The November forecast sent you to the October one. Oops. Here's the corrected link: November 2023 forecast

$ $ $

I'll be releasing another version of Patternz (8.0.0.4) soon to correct a few bugs.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ALRM, AMZN, APH, ACGL, ASH, AIZ, BALL, BIG, BA, BKNG, BMY, BBW, CDNS, CAL, CHD, CNX, CL, CMTL, CONN, CXW, CSGS, CTS, CW, XRAY, DDS, DFS, ^DJI, DTE, EPAM, EG, EXC, EXPD, FICO, FARO, FAST, FDX, FIS, FLEX, FTNT, GME, GNW, GMS, GOOGL, GFF, HBI, HAYN, HP, INFN, IBP, JKHY, KBH, K, KEYS, KMB, KSS, LZB, M, MANH, MKTX, MRTN, MLM, MTRN, MTRX, MGEE, MCO, NFLX, NTNX, OXY, OMI, PDCO, PEN, PETS, PLXS, PG, QTWO, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, RGS, RLI, ROK, RES, CRM, SMG, SIGI, SHW, STR, SWX, SWN, SXI, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TER, TKR, TZOO, TG, TWLO, VC, WMT, WU, WPM, WMB, WWD, DDM, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IXC, EWK, EWH, EWW, THD, TUR, DBA, PBE, PJP, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 11/30/23. Bitcoin (BTC-USD). Rising Wedge

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily chart.

A cup with handle appears as a rounded turn in red on the chart. Yes, it's not a smooth turn and the handle is wimpy. But the move after completion shows a good rise.

Now we have a bearish chart pattern (where the cup was bullish). It's called a rising wedge. I show that at A. Rising wedges breakout downward 60% of the time, so that's the way to bet.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 198 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACIW, AMD, AKAM, ALRM, ALGT, AYX, AMZN, AEE, AEO, AXP, APH, ANIK, AR, AAPL, ACGL, AVNT, AXS, BCPC, BALL, BSET, BKNG, BAH, CDNS, CAL, CE, CLS, CNC, CNP, CVX, CTAS, CNA, CTSH, ED, CXW, COST, CR, CROX, CCK, CSGS, CTS, CMI, DFS, ^DJU, DTE, DUK, EBAY, EIX, ELV, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EG, EVRG, EXC, EXPI, FFIV, FARO, FIVN, GME, GPN, GL, GOOGL, GES, HLIT, HAYN, HP, HD, HON, HWM, HURC, IBP, INTC, INTU, IRM, JBLU, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, KLIC, LAMR, LDOS, LNC, LMT, L, MTSI, M, MGY, MANH, MCHX, MKTX, MAS, MTRN, META, MGEE, MS, MYGN, NFLX, NTGR, NTAP, NKE, NI, JWN, NWPX, NTNX, OXY, OGE, OTEX, PATK, PDCO, PCTY, PRFT, PXD, PLXS, PPG, PFG, PG, PRU, QCOM, RRC, RGA, ROL, ROST, CRM, SBH, SAND, SAIC, SMG, SRE, SCI, SLGN, SKX, SMAR, SO, LUV, SWX, SWN, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TFX, TMO, TJX, TSCO, TDG, TREX, UGI, VRSN, WMT, WU, WOLF, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, IYK, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, IXC, SOXX, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWT, PPA, ROBO, XLP, XLU, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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