Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 06/14/2024
  Indus: 38,589 -57.94 -0.1%  
  Trans: 14,807 -161.34 -1.1%  
  Utils: 917 -0.41 0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 17,689 +21.32 +0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,432 -2.14 0.0%  
YTD
 +2.4%  
-6.9%  
 +4.0%  
 +17.8%  
 +13.9%  
  Targets    Overview: 06/13/2024  
  Up arrow39,900 or 37,650 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow15,800 or 14,300 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 890 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow17,800 or 16,750 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,250 by 07/01/2024
As of 06/14/2024
  Indus: 38,589 -57.94 -0.1%  
  Trans: 14,807 -161.34 -1.1%  
  Utils: 917 -0.41 0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 17,689 +21.32 +0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,432 -2.14 0.0%  
YTD
 +2.4%  
-6.9%  
 +4.0%  
 +17.8%  
 +13.9%  
  Targets    Overview: 06/13/2024  
  Up arrow39,900 or 37,650 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow15,800 or 14,300 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 890 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow17,800 or 16,750 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,250 by 07/01/2024

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Picture of 'Training Miles' book. Picture of 'Invest for two-comma wealth' book.

Older Headlines

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Monday 6/17/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dowutilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale, but there's not a lot going on.

Earlier in the year we see a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern, marked as LS (left shoulder), head, and RS (right shoulder). It confirms as a valid chart pattern when price closes above the green neckline in March.

After that, price takes its time before it starts a strong uptrend in April, peaking in May.

Now, the index is resting on support, which I show as a horizontal red line. I don't know if this support will hold or not (meaning if the index will bounce higher or just plunge through). I don't have a lot of confidence that it'll bounce. I expect a drop.

If it does plunge through, then look for it to find support at the violet circle, at B.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 69.05 points.
Tuesday: Down 120.62 points.
Wednesday: Down 35.21 points.
Thursday: Down 65.11 points.
Friday: Down 57.94 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 209.83 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 555.75 points or 3.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 84.61 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.7% down from the high of 40,077.40 on 05/20/2024.
     3.9% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     0.3% down from the high of 17,741.80 on 06/13/2024.
     22.2% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.3% down from the high of 5,447.25 on 06/12/2024.
     16.0% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  38,207  38,398  38,497  38,688  38,786 
Weekly  37,857  38,223  38,672  39,038  39,486 
Monthly  36,813  37,701  38,889  39,777  40,966 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,394  5,413  5,423  5,441  5,451 
Weekly  5,282  5,357  5,402  5,477  5,522 
Monthly  5,101  5,266  5,357  5,522  5,612 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  17,555  17,622  17,658  17,725  17,760 
Weekly  16,812  17,250  17,496  17,935  18,180 
Monthly  15,793  16,741  17,241  18,189  18,690 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 180 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADBE, AES, ATSG, ALRM, AA, AEE, AEP, ANIK, AR, ATR, AVNT, AVA, BSET, BIG, CPB, COR, CENX, CDAY, CHD, CIEN, CI, CTAS, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CMCO, ED, COST, CTS, DSGR, D, DRQ, DUK, BOOM, EIX, EPAM, EQT, EVH, EXPI, EZPW, FAST, FCX, FDP, IT, GNW, GILD, GFS, GL, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, GES, THG, HAYN, HELE, HP, HNI, HOLX, HWM, HURC, IDA, ITW, INFN, IPAR, IPI, ISRG, JBLU, K, KMT, LZB, LANC, LEG, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MCHX, MTRN, MGEE, MS, NFLX, NTGR, NWL, NEE, NWPX, ORCL, PATK, PETS, PFE, POR, PPL, PEG, PSTG, RJF, RLI, ROL, RES, R, SAIA, SBH, SEIC, NOW, SLGN, SWN, SR, SXI, TPR, TGT, RIG, TZOO, UHAL, VRTX, WU, WWW, ITA, IAI, FTEC, FXI, BOTZ, QQQ, IEV, IGV, MXI, IXN, IYF, EWO, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWU, QLD, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, GLD, XLB, XRT, XAR, XLK, UNG, VAW, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Shoe
3. Apparel3. Apparel
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Telecom. Equipment5. Retail (Special Lines)
6. Semiconductor6. Telecom. Equipment
7. Retail Store7. Retail Store
8. Drug8. Metals and Mining (Div.)
9. Industrial Services9. Computers and Peripherals
10. Long ETFs10. Industrial Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Diversified Co.50. Information Services
51. Medical Supplies51. Medical Services
52. Electric Utility (West)52. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
53. Chemical (Diversified)53. Insurance (Diversified)
54. Trucking/Transp. Leasing54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Information Services55. Computer Software and Svcs
56. Air Transport56. Air Transport
57. Human Resources57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
58. Short ETFs58. Human Resources
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Toiletries/Cosmetics
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and the novel (fiction), Training "Miles" (#Ad)

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Friday 6/14/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 133 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, AXDX, ADBE, AES, ATSG, AMZN, AEE, AMGN, ANIK, AR, ANET, ASH, AVA, BALL, BSET, BIG, BMY, BG, CDAY, CVX, CIEN, CNA, CL, ED, COST, CROX, CCK, DHR, DDS, DSGR, D, EIX, EPAM, EQT, EVH, EXPI, XOM, EZPW, FISV, FCX, FDP, IT, GIS, GNW, GILD, GL, GPRO, GFF, GES, HE, HP, HSIC, IDA, ITW, INFN, NSP, INTC, IPI, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, K, KMB, LEG, RAMP, LXU, MRO, MLM, MAS, MTDR, MRK, MRCY, MSFT, MS, MUR, NBR, NFG, NFLX, NTGR, NTAP, NJR, NEE, NVDA, OXY, OTEX, ORCL, OMI, PANW, PFE, QTWO, RRC, RJF, RGS, RES, SAIA, NOW, SMAR, SCCO, SWN, SPSC, SSYS, TGT, VLO, WERN, WU, WWW, FDN, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, IGV, SLV, IHI, TUR, PPA, PEJ, XLU, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and Training "Miles" (#Ad) New

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AXPHead-and-shoulders top      04/24/202406/03/2024Financial Services
AFGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/31/202406/07/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ARCBDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/29/202406/06/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
ADMDiamond top      05/17/202406/11/2024Food Processing
ANETDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/23/202406/03/2024E-Commerce
AVNTBroadening bottom      05/29/202406/13/2024Chemical (Specialty)
AZTAHead-and-shoulders bottom      04/18/202405/24/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BRCDouble Top, Eve and Eve      05/23/202405/31/2024Chemical (Diversified)
BFHDiamond top      05/03/202406/06/2024Information Services
CENXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      05/21/202405/31/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
CHKPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/14/202405/31/2024E-Commerce
CAGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      04/05/202404/25/2024Food Processing
CXWDead-cat bounce      06/11/202406/11/2024Industrial Services
CCKDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/30/202405/21/2024Packaging and Container
DDouble Top, Eve and Eve      05/21/202406/03/2024Electric Utility (East)
EXPFalling wedge      05/21/202406/11/2024Cement and Aggregates
EFXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      05/31/202406/11/2024Information Services
FAROBroadening bottom      04/23/202405/09/2024Precision Instrument
FDXRectangle bottom      05/29/202406/13/2024Air Transport
FORMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/04/202406/10/2024Semiconductor
FWRDFlag, high and tight      05/21/202406/11/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
GDHead-and-shoulders top      05/21/202406/06/2024Aerospace/Defense
GEDouble Top, Eve and Eve      05/07/202405/24/2024Diversified Co.
HAYNTriangle, symmetrical      05/15/202406/10/2024Building Materials
HNIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/15/202406/03/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
HDDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      05/29/202406/07/2024Retail Building Supply
TILEPipe top      05/28/202406/03/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
IPGHead-and-shoulders top      04/24/202406/03/2024Advertising
LEGPipe bottom      05/20/202405/28/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
MCHXTriangle, ascending      03/15/202406/05/2024Advertising
MLIHead-and-shoulders complex top      04/24/202406/03/2024Metal Fabricating
NEEPipe top      05/28/202406/03/2024Electric Utility (East)
OMCTriple top      03/28/202405/15/2024Advertising
ORCLPipe bottom      05/28/202406/03/2024Computer Software and Svcs
OUTFalling wedge      05/01/202406/11/2024Advertising
OXMHorn bottom      04/01/202404/15/2024Apparel
PDCODiamond bottom      04/23/202405/16/2024Medical Supplies
PETSBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      05/28/202406/13/2024Medical Services
PFEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      05/22/202406/04/2024Drug
PRUDouble Top, Eve and Eve      05/17/202406/03/2024Insurance (Life)
RLITriple top      05/07/202405/17/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SMTCDead-cat bounce      06/07/202406/07/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SWXHead-and-shoulders top      05/10/202406/03/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
TTDBroadening top      05/20/202406/13/2024Advertising
TKRDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/30/202405/15/2024Metal Fabricating
TDGTriple top      05/28/202406/06/2024Aerospace/Defense
UNMDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/02/202406/03/2024Insurance (Diversified)
WERNBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      05/21/202406/12/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
WMBRising wedge      05/24/202406/13/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)

 

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Thursday 6/13/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.5% or 264.89 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 127 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 75 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 52 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 59.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 277/494 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 77/163 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At A, a long rectangle top appears. The word on the street says that inflation is slowing. That pushed higher the Nasdaq on the open (Today, Wednesday).

However, I expect the index to drift back lower to the A region. That's based on a measured move up chart pattern.

When the pattern completes, the stock will return to A (the corrective phase) 57% of the time, according to my research and reported in my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd Edition (#ad).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 243 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABM, ADBE, ADTN, AES, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AMZN, AMED, AEE, AEP, AME, APH, ANIK, AR, AON, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ASH, AGO, AVA, AZTA, BSET, BECN, BBY, BIO, BKH, BA, BRC, BFH, BCO, BMY, CDNS, CX, CVX, CI, CTAS, CSCO, CLNE, CLX, CNO, ED, CAG, COP, COST, CRH, CROX, CCK, CSGS, ^DJU, ^DJT, D, DRQ, DUK, EMN, ECL, ELV, EQT, EVH, EXC, XOM, EZPW, FARO, FDX, FIS, FMC, FTNT, FDP, IT, GIS, GNW, GILD, GS, GGG, HBI, HE, HQY, HP, HSIC, HOLX, HD, DHI, HUN, IDA, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, TILE, ISRG, KBH, K, KMB, KLAC, LRCX, LANC, LEN, LNC, MTSI, M, MAN, MRO, MA, MTDR, MRK, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MCO, MOS, ^IXIC, NFG, NJR, NEE, NKE, NI, NUS, OXY, OMC, ON, ORCL, OXM, PYPL, PFE, PCG, PFG, PG, PEG, QTWO, QCOM, RRC, RJF, RGA, RCKY, R, ^GSPC, SAIA, SBH, SAIC, NOW, SLGN, SMAR, SO, SWX, SWN, SR, SXI, SSYS, TDC, TOL, TZOO, UIS, UPS, UNM, VLO, VMI, VECO, VEEV, V, WRB, WERN, WU, WOLF, WDAY, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IDU, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, ICF, IYZ, IGV, MXI, IXN, ILF, SOXX, IGE, IEO, IYF, EWC, ECH, EWY, EWT, QLD, IBB, PBE, PJP, SSO, XLP, XLE, XRT, SPY, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, VHT, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth and Training "Miles" (#Ad) New

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,803.45    
 Weekly S2  16,574.23  770.79   
 Monthly S1  16,705.94  131.71   
 Monthly Pivot  16,970.84  264.89   
 Weekly S1  17,091.34  120.50   
 Weekly Pivot  17,163.53  72.20   
 Daily S2  17,373.41  209.87   
 Low  17,490.64  117.23   
 Daily S1  17,490.92  0.28   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  17,502.15  11.23   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  17,580.31  78.16   
 50% Down from Intraday High  17,608.02  27.70   
 Daily Pivot  17,608.16  0.14   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  17,608.44  0.28   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  17,635.71  27.28   
 Weekly R1  17,680.64  44.92   
 High  17,725.39  44.75   
 Daily R1  17,725.67  0.28   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R2  17,752.83  27.16   
 Daily R2  17,842.91  90.07   
 Monthly R1  17,873.33  30.43   
 Monthly R2  18,138.23  264.89   

 

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