As of 02/28/2024
  Indus: 38,949 -23.39 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,706 -90.67 -0.6%  
  Utils: 841 -0.99 -0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 15,948 -87.56 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,070 -8.42 -0.2%  
YTD
 +3.3%  
-1.2%  
-4.6%  
 +6.2%  
 +6.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024
As of 02/28/2024
  Indus: 38,949 -23.39 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,706 -90.67 -0.6%  
  Utils: 841 -0.99 -0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 15,948 -87.56 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,070 -8.42 -0.2%  
YTD
 +3.3%  
-1.2%  
-4.6%  
 +6.2%  
 +6.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024

Bulkowski's December 2023 Forecast Update

Released 11/30/2023.

Below is the updated forecast for 2023 as of the close on November 30, 2023. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


1 / 4
chart pattern indicator

This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.

Today (Thursday 11/30/23) the index made a big move higher (Dow industrials up 520 points, S&P up 17), lifting the general market. Not all stocks participated. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped a bit (down 32 points).

The CPI is solidly bullish.

From what we can see on the thin blue line from November, it looks like bearish divergence with the CPI trending downward even as the S&P moves higher.

The next chart looks at the Dow industrials.
2 / 4
Dow industrials chart

This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

As the chart shows, the Dow is well below the forecast. It has a lot to climb if it's to make the forecast 39,629 close.

Will it make it? If it has another rise like it had from the November low, then yes, it will.

I have my doubts. I'm still expecting weakness in the first half of December in tech stocks.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 4
Nasdaq chart

This is the Nasdaq on the daily chart.

This chart shows the opposite of the prior one. The Nasdaq has outperformed the forecast. I think there's a decent chance that the index will retrace and close near the forecast of 13,684.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 4
S and P chart

Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

This chart is like the 3 little bears. The first index didn't eat enough. The second one ate too much, and this one ate the right amount.

The index at A is almost exactly on target to close at 4,584. Not a bad forecast, given that I made it in January. The ride was more bumpy than expected.

The end.

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