As of 05/10/2024
Indus: 39,513 +125.08 +0.3%
Trans: 15,597 +84.96 +0.5%
Utils: 942 -0.84 -0.1%
Nasdaq: 16,341 -5.39 0.0%
S&P 500: 5,223 +8.60 +0.2%
|
YTD
+4.8%
-1.9%
+6.9%
+8.9%
+9.5%
|
 39,950 or 38,500 by 06/01/202415,820 or 14,600 by 05/15/2024960 or 900 by 06/01/202416,700 or 15,200 by 05/15/20245,250 or 4,850 by 05/15/2024 |
As of 05/10/2024
Indus: 39,513 +125.08 +0.3%
Trans: 15,597 +84.96 +0.5%
Utils: 942 -0.84 -0.1%
Nasdaq: 16,341 -5.39 0.0%
S&P 500: 5,223 +8.60 +0.2%
|
YTD
+4.8%
-1.9%
+6.9%
+8.9%
+9.5%
| |
|
39,950 or 38,500 by 06/01/202415,820 or 14,600 by 05/15/2024960 or 900 by 06/01/202416,700 or 15,200 by 05/15/20245,250 or 4,850 by 05/15/2024 | ||
Released 1/31/2024.
Below is the updated forecast for February 2024 as of the close on January 31, 2024. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
As the chart shows, the CPI turned bearish because the market made a big drop on FED news today (Wednesday) (that they wouldn't be in a hurry to lower interest rates). I expect this weakness to be a short-term drop, maybe only a day or two.
This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.
As the chart shows, the index isn't following the prediction. Sigh. I was hoping to buy the dip (in tech stocks, not industrials).
If the prediction is correct, within the next trading day or two, we should see a move higher for the next month.
This is the Nasdaq on the daily chart.
The Nasdaq's drop doesn't quite bring the index down to the forecast. After March, look for a downturn in the indices going into mid May.
Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.
The forecast shows a bumpy ride for the rest of the year, but expect the indices to close the year higher than where they started - not by a lot, mind you (like 10% to 15%).
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