As of 04/17/2024
Indus: 37,753 -45.66 -0.1%
Trans: 14,987 -259.68 -1.7%
Utils: 853 +17.82 +2.1%
Nasdaq: 15,683 -181.88 -1.1%
S&P 500: 5,022 -29.20 -0.6%
|
YTD
+0.2%
-5.7%
-3.2%
+4.5%
+5.3%
|
 39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 |
As of 04/17/2024
Indus: 37,753 -45.66 -0.1%
Trans: 14,987 -259.68 -1.7%
Utils: 853 +17.82 +2.1%
Nasdaq: 15,683 -181.88 -1.1%
S&P 500: 5,022 -29.20 -0.6%
|
YTD
+0.2%
-5.7%
-3.2%
+4.5%
+5.3%
| |
|
39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 | ||
I show the chart of Hudson Highland Group (HHGP) on the daily scale. This is a trade I made, actually, six trades by my count (two occurred on the same day and one was a partial fill that I completed with a market order). I show the buy as a B on the chart and the sale as an S.
Here is a portion of my notebook entry for the first trade with my explanation in brackets.
Today's date: 02/15/2008Order details: Buy at limit 7.06 (and filled at 7.06). That's the 38% Fibonacci retrace of move from the 2/7/08 low. Day order. [The right shoulder of the head-and-shoulders bottom is February 7. The low on that day was 6.15 and the high on 2/14 (the day before I bought) was 7.72. A 38% Fibonacci retrace of this climb is: 7.72 - ((7.72 - 6.15) x 38%) = 7.12. I am scratching my head wondering why it does not equal the 7.06 entry price. No matter...].Date bought: 2/15/08Stop: 6.05 -16.6%. Stop used: 6.05, below the minor low on 2/7/08. [The stop was a volatility based stop and it was huge: 14.3% away (which differs from the notebook entry because my computer uses the current close and not the actual entry price, since I fill out the notebook before I buy). With low priced stocks, they are volatile and you have to give them room to breathe or you'll be stopped out.]Upside target: 9.11 according to scoring system (-1 score). [The scoring system said that the chance of reaching the median rise of 29.04% for a head-and-shoulders bottom was not good (-1 score). The average rise of head-and-shoulders bottoms with scores less than 0 is 24%. Those above 0 climb an average of 48%. See my book, Trading Classic Chart Patterns, pictured on the right, for more details.]
SAR: 8 then 12-13. [SAR is support and resistance].Next earnings: about 3 months.Weekly scale (industry, too): 8 stocks have hit bottom and begun to turn, 4 have not. They are continuing down. Weinstein stages show nearly all are in stage 4. One is in stage 1, and one in stage 2. On the monthly scale, it shows that several stocks are resting on long term trendlines. [Weinstein stages refer to the book, Stan Weinstein's secrets for profiting in bull and bear markets where he splits the price chart into four stages. Stage 4 means the stock is dropping. 1 means the stock has pulled out of the dive; 2 means it is time to buy because the stock is moving up, and stage 3 means the stock has peaked and is now moving sideways, ready to drop in stage 4].Indicators: Nothing exciting. Price is near top of the Bollinger band.Buy reason: head-and-shoulders bottom in a nice solid block of congestion with an upward breakout. But market is weak, probably causing a throwback. I think the industry has bottomed and even though the market is continuing down, I think this could hold its own. If I'm wrong, it's just 1/4 position.
The following are more notebook entries. They describe how I raised my stop as price climbed. If you want to learn how to trail your stop, print out the Hudson Highland Group chart and the following entries, and then analyze both.
Here is the notebook entry for the sale.
Date placed: 5/21/08Date sold: 05/22/2008Sell reason: My stop hit, just as I expected even though price closed higher. I tightened the stop because of the big 5+% decline yesterday for unexplained reasons (the market was also down big). Looks like I sold at the low for the day. I wanted to protect my profits.
As you can see in the chart, price continued higher for a few weeks, so I lost out on some money. Then price dropped and it closed today at 11.52. I made from 55.5% on the first trade to 14.6% on the last one.
Shown is what happened to the stock after I sold.
Price continued to swim against a falling market for about two more weeks before being dragged down with the market current.
In the figure, the sold line does not point to the price at which the transaction occurred, rather to the day when it occurred.
In the 2008 bear market that followed, the stock bottomed out in March 2009 below $1. The June peak was the high for the stock, so selling was the right decision.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to
Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notice for paid links: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases."
|
My Stock Market Books
|
My Novels
|
Paul Revere Virus: This revolutionary virus does not horse around. It warns you of impending hard disk attack: once if by LAN and twice if by C:\.
on 
