Bulkowski's 2026 Forecast Update

This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.

The indices took a dive on the last trading day of the year (2025). That left the CPI bearish at 2.1 on a scale from 0 to 100. It suggests weakness going forward (short term, a week or two). Signals can change for up to a week, but it looks like the bearish reading will stick around.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

The index tracked the forecast quite closely, ending the year just two percentage points apart (7% gain versus 9%).

This is a forecast for the Dow utilities on the daily scale for 2026.

The vertical green lines show significant turning points. The forecast has the index climbing in January, but I see weakness for the first week or two, so one of us is wrong. The ending gain of 11% does not include dividends. Dividends would boost the return by a few percentage points.

This is a chart of the Dow transports on the daily scale for 2025.

The forecast did well except for the large swing ending in April and the divergence in December.

This is a forecast for the Dow transports on the daily scale for 2026.

Point A shows the forecast yearly low, B is when the index peaks and turns lower to C before climbing to end the year with a 16% forecast gain.

This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale for 2025.

This chart shows what happened to the Dow in 2025. The ending year forecast was off and the up/down waves in the middle were missing, too.

This is the 2026 forecast for the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

If the forecast is correct, look for weakness this month (January), to A, followed by a rise to mid March. We flatten out until late July before the index climbs to year end. Last year the gain was forecast at 4%. This year it's 15%. So look for a strong showing in the indices.

Here's the Nasdaq forecast.

The year ended 20% higher versus a forecast of 9% higher. The actual move tracked the forecast for about 6 weeks at the start but it didn't predict the Trump tariff drop to the April low.

Here's the Nasdaq forecast.

The year's low was at A, B to C shows the index easing lower with a takeoff to year's end after C. At D, the index is forecast to drop.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale along with the 2025 forecast.

Here's how the index and forecast played out in 2025.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

If the forecast is correct, expect weakness in January followed by a flat to down section from April to June. After that, the index trends higher to year end.

This is the 10-year forecast.

I show the forecast in the indices I follow in the square inset on the left. The chart is for the Nasdaq. Year 2028 will suffer starting about August and 2032 looks to be a bad year. Notice that this chart shows 3 up waves with 2 retraces, which Elliott waver fans will recognize as a motive wave.