As of 05/24/2024
  Indus: 39,070 +4.33 +0.0%  
  Trans: 15,083 +74.08 +0.5%  
  Utils: 926 +1.92 +0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,921 +184.76 +1.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,305 +36.88 +0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.1%  
 +5.0%  
 +12.7%  
 +11.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024
As of 05/24/2024
  Indus: 39,070 +4.33 +0.0%  
  Trans: 15,083 +74.08 +0.5%  
  Utils: 926 +1.92 +0.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,921 +184.76 +1.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,305 +36.88 +0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.1%  
 +5.0%  
 +12.7%  
 +11.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024

Bulkowski's July 2023 Forecast

Released 7/3/2023.

Below is the updated forecast for 2023 as of the close on July 3, 2023. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


1 / 4
chart pattern indicator

This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.

The CPI shows green, which is bullish. The signal happened long enough ago that it won't change (meaning the signal can change for up to a week). The market has responded nicely to the bullish signal by rising.

The next chart looks at the Dow industrials.
2 / 4
Dow industrials chart

This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

The black candles are the Dow. The red line is the forecast, and I drew blue lines to show the slope of the Dow's trend.

Notice how the top and bottom blue lines have a similar slope. In other words, if the forecast were lowered to where the Dow is today, we might see it close the year near 37,800 (if it follows the forecast).

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 4
Nasdaq chart

This is the Nasdaq on the daily chart.

I drew a horizontal blue line to emphasize that the Nasdaq is above the forecast close for the year. In other words, the index is doing better than expected.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 4
S and P chart

Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

This is similar to the prior chart. The S&P index has a bit to go to reach the predicted close.

If the forecast is correct, then look for the index to go horizontal to slightly up to reach the predicted close.

The end.

See Also

 
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