As of 06/13/2025
Indus: 42,198 -769.83 -1.8%
Trans: 14,686 -224.99 -1.5%
Utils: 1,037 -6.25 -0.6%
Nasdaq: 19,407 -255.65 -1.3%
S&P 500: 5,977 -68.29 -1.1%
|
YTD
-0.8%
-7.6%
+5.5%
+0.5%
+1.6%
|
 44,000 or 41,200 by 07/01/202516,000 or 14,500 by 07/01/20251,080 or 1,010 by 07/01/202520,500 or 19,000 by 07/01/20256,150 or 5,850 by 07/01/2025 |
As of 06/13/2025
Indus: 42,198 -769.83 -1.8%
Trans: 14,686 -224.99 -1.5%
Utils: 1,037 -6.25 -0.6%
Nasdaq: 19,407 -255.65 -1.3%
S&P 500: 5,977 -68.29 -1.1%
|
YTD
-0.8%
-7.6%
+5.5%
+0.5%
+1.6%
| |
|
44,000 or 41,200 by 07/01/202516,000 or 14,500 by 07/01/20251,080 or 1,010 by 07/01/202520,500 or 19,000 by 07/01/20256,150 or 5,850 by 07/01/2025 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2025 as of the close on May 30, 2025. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
CPI values above 65 are bullish (green line), below 35 are bearish (red line), and between those two are neutral. The readings shown on the chart for the last several days are neutral.
The CPI line shows weakness based on its downward trend from the peak in mid to late April.
The horizontal red and green lines are approximate.
This is the Dow on the daily chart. The forecast is in red. If the forecast is correct, then look for strength into mid July before a drop into mid to late August. After that, look for a recovery to year end.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq shows a profile similar to the prior chart. In this chart, you see weakness in late September (as well as August).
This chart shows weakness in August, a smaller amount in September, and a rise to end the year 6% higher (if the forecast is correct).
Of the three indices discussed here, the S&P is the only one to show a year-to-date (YTD) gain (of 1%).
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