As of 02/28/2024
  Indus: 38,949 -23.39 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,706 -90.67 -0.6%  
  Utils: 841 -0.99 -0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 15,948 -87.56 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,070 -8.42 -0.2%  
YTD
 +3.3%  
-1.2%  
-4.6%  
 +6.2%  
 +6.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024
As of 02/28/2024
  Indus: 38,949 -23.39 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,706 -90.67 -0.6%  
  Utils: 841 -0.99 -0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 15,948 -87.56 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,070 -8.42 -0.2%  
YTD
 +3.3%  
-1.2%  
-4.6%  
 +6.2%  
 +6.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024

Bulkowski's November 2023 Forecast Update

Released 10/31/2023.

Below is the updated forecast for 2023 as of the close on October 31, 2023. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


1 / 4
chart pattern indicator

This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.

The CPI turned green today with a reading of 68.4 out of 100. That's just above the 65 trigger for a buy. Keep in mind that the indicator can change for up to a week, so this green buy signal might disappear if the markets make a big move down.

The next chart looks at the Dow industrials.
2 / 4
Dow industrials chart

This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

The Dow has not performed up to expectations, which I show as the red line. Predicted close for the year is 39,629 with the current close at 33,053. That's about a 20% gap which will make a nice run up if it's true. And that means it's unlikely.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 4
Nasdaq chart

This is the Nasdaq on the daily chart.

The Nasdaq is close to being on target so far. Current close is 12,851 with a target of 13,684. It has a hill to climb but not nearly as much as the Dow.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 4
S and P chart

Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The index exceeded the closing target mid year at 4,607 with a predicted close of 4,584 and current close of 4,194. The index has to climb about 10% in two months. Easy peasy.

The end.

See Also

 
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