As of 05/23/2024
  Indus: 39,065 -605.78 -1.5%  
  Trans: 15,009 -185.73 -1.2%  
  Utils: 924 -20.84 -2.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,736 -65.51 -0.4%  
  S&P 500: 5,268 -39.17 -0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.6%  
 +4.8%  
 +11.5%  
 +10.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024
As of 05/23/2024
  Indus: 39,065 -605.78 -1.5%  
  Trans: 15,009 -185.73 -1.2%  
  Utils: 924 -20.84 -2.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,736 -65.51 -0.4%  
  S&P 500: 5,268 -39.17 -0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.6%  
 +4.8%  
 +11.5%  
 +10.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024

Bulkowski on Good Same-Store Sales

For more information on this pattern, read Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second EditionEncyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition book., pictured on the right, pages 921 to 933.

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-- Tom Bulkowski

$ $ $

Periodically, retailers announce same-store sales (sometimes called existing store sales or comparable store sales) numbers. Usually, these are the sale results for stores open at least a year. After the announcement of better than expected same-store sales, the stock jumps up, but price soon falters and drops. Discovered by Thomas Bulkowski in the fall of 2003.

Good same store sales
Good Same Store Sales

 

Good Same-Store Sales: Important Bull Market Results

Overall performance rank for up breakouts (1 is best): 4 out of 6
Break even failure rate for up breakouts: 20%
Average rise: 23%
Throwback rate: 59%
Percentage meeting price target for up breakouts: 82%

The above numbers are based on hundreds of perfect trades. See the glossary for definitions.

Good Same-Store Sales: Identification Guidelines

CharacteristicDiscussion
Price trendUsually found in a price uptrend (continuation patterns) but reversals perform better.
AnnouncementThe company announces monthly or quarterly same-store sales numbers.
Wide swingLook for announcements in which price makes a large intraday swing, 2 or 3 times the average daily intraday price swing over the last month.
Upward breakoutA breakout occurs when price closes above the highest high posted on the announcement day.
VolumeAbove the 30-day average, usually.
MarketWorks best in a bull market.

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Good Same-Store Sales: Trading Tips

Trading TacticExplanation Same-store sales measure rule
The Measure Rule
Measure ruleReference The Measure Rule figure to the right. On the announcement day, subtract the intraday low (point A) from the high (B) and multiply it by the above “percentage meeting price target.” Add the result to the intraday high (B) to get a price target (C).
ConfirmationWait for price to confirm the pattern because traders may push price down instead. An upward breakout (confirmation) happens when price closes above the high posted on the announcement day.
BuyBuy when the pattern confirms, but be prepared to sell quickly.
Yearly lowPatterns with breakouts within a third of the yearly low have the best performance.
TopPrice may top out quickly. Forty-four percent in a bull market top out in less than 2 weeks, so be prepared to sell if price falters. Twenty-nine percent show continued upward strength through 70 days.
ShortIf price begins weakening, rounds over and starts down, consider shorting the stock. Watch for a throwback in which the stock returns to the breakout price and then rebounds upward.

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Good Same-Store Sales: Example

Same-store sales event pattern example

The above figure shows an example of a good same-store sales event pattern. Price trends downward into the event pattern and then price forms a tall white candle on the announcement day. Price moves up in a straight-line run, peaking at A before dribbling lower over the coming days.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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See Also

 

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