As of 05/23/2024
  Indus: 39,065 -605.78 -1.5%  
  Trans: 15,009 -185.73 -1.2%  
  Utils: 924 -20.84 -2.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,736 -65.51 -0.4%  
  S&P 500: 5,268 -39.17 -0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.6%  
 +4.8%  
 +11.5%  
 +10.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024
As of 05/23/2024
  Indus: 39,065 -605.78 -1.5%  
  Trans: 15,009 -185.73 -1.2%  
  Utils: 924 -20.84 -2.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,736 -65.51 -0.4%  
  S&P 500: 5,268 -39.17 -0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.6%  
 +4.8%  
 +11.5%  
 +10.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024

Bulkowski's Dow Industrials Forecast

Released 2/2/2024.

Current Forecast

Dow industrials chart

This is a chart of the Dow industrials forecast for 2024.

It shows the Dow closing 6% higher for the year (based on the close on 1/2/24, not last year's close). The Dow will be flat (not gaining ground) until October where it begins a year-end sprint.

If you want to buy the dip, then you'll have opportunities in February, August and October, with additional ones as we leave spring for summer (providing the forecast is correct).

Top of page

Historical Dow Forecast

Below is the forecast for the years since 2008, presented in slider format (think slide show). Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them. Use the arrows on the left and right side of the chart to advance to the next slide (or go back one slide). The circles at the bottom of the chart allow you to move from slide to slide easily. Click on the circle to be taken to the associated slide.

The forecast is the red line and it's based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


Picture of the Dow industrials 2008 forecast on the daily scale

This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale in 2008.

This was another year that the index and the prediction missed each other. The Dow dropped even as the prediction said it would rise. If you invert the prediction, it would have been closer to reality.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2009 forecast on the daily scale

This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale in 2009.

Although the prediction ended the year very close to the actual, it missed the large decline in March.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2010 forecast on the daily scale

This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale in 2010.

The prediction was off this year. The drop predicted to start in September and bottom in October never appeared.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2011 forecast on the daily scale

This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale in 2011.

The prediction did quite well in 2011. It may have peaked or hit a valley a few weeks out of synch, but it did predict a bumpy year.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2012 forecast on the daily scale

This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale in 2012.

In May, the prediction headed lower, but the Dow turned up in June.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2013 forecast on the daily scale

This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale in 2013 and how it was predicted to do. Both the prediction and the Dow start the year from the same value.

The method predicted that the year would be a good one for the Dow. It was.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2014 forecast on the daily scale

This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale in 2014.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2015 forecast on the daily scale

This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale in 2015 (black) and the predicted path (red) of the Dow.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2016 forecast on the daily scale

This is the forecast for the Dow in 2016 (red), using the daily scale, accompanied by the actual Dow price action (black). Notice how close the predicted value was to the actual. Wow.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2017 forecast on the daily scale

The red line is the forecast for 2017 and the black bars are the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The actual close at year end versus the predicted close I show in the upper right of the chart.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2018 forecast on the daily scale

The red line is the forecast for 2018 and the black bars are the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

Earlier in 2008, probably around the August blog post, I received an email questioning the inclusion of 2007-2009 bear market data in the forecast. I thought the person made a good case, that the 2008 bear market wouldn't recur this year. So I removed the bear market data and posted the results.

Clearly that was a mistake. If you include the 2008 bear market data in the forecast, then the above chart is what you get.

Notice that if you invert the red line, it tracks quite closely the Dow industrials. The ending close isn't the same, but it's a very good prediction in my view.

Unfortunately, I've no idea ahead of time whether we'll need to invert the forecast or not.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2019 forecast on the daily scale

This is the forecast (red line) and actual performance for 2019.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2020 forecast on the daily scale

This is the forecast (red line) and actual performance for 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic took the markets down in a swift but short bear market in March, as the chart shows. The recovery was swift, though, as the markets looked to the future.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2021 forecast on the daily scale

This is the Dow Industrials in black and the prediction in red. The forecast missed the actual move by 5,500 points or 18%. The forecast looked dismal at the start of the year going forward even as the Dow moved higher. In September, the forecast began its recovery but it wasn't strong enough to catch up with the Dow.

This is the predicted path of the Dow industrials this year. The industrials are predicted to rise to mid February, drop to mid March, and recover to post the year's high in May.

After May, it's downhill to the September low. Following that, we get a bounce to end the year slightly above where we started.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2022 forecast on the daily scale

This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The 2022 forecast is in red, made in January 2022.

The forecast suggested the industrials would end the year lower and they did. The waveform of the red and black lines are similar in shape but the extent of the black OHLC chart has steeper hills and valleys compared to the red line. The index was forecast to close the year at 35,531 but it actually closed it at 33,147.

Picture of the Dow industrials 2023 forecast on the daily scale

This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale for 2023. It shows that the forecast (red line, made before the year started) was a smooth line trending higher whereas the index was more choppy.

The actual Dow close was close to the forecasted one.


See Also

 
Top of page
 

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notice for paid links: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases."

My Stock Market Books
My Novels

Copyright © 2005-2024 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.
Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.
Home Advertise Contact Donate Privacy/Disclaimer