As of 01/16/2026
Indus: 49,359 -83.11 -0.2%
Trans: 18,245 -139.45 -0.8%
Utils: 1,099 -4.15 -0.4%
Nasdaq: 23,515 -14.63 -0.1%
S&P 500: 6,940 -4.46 -0.1%
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YTD
+2.7%
+5.1%
+2.9%
+1.2%
+1.4%
|
 50,500 or 48,000 by 02/01/202619,400 or 17,750 by 02/01/20261,140 or 1,075 by 02/01/202624,750 or 22,700 by 02/01/20267,250 or 6,700 by 02/01/2026 |
As of 01/16/2026
Indus: 49,359 -83.11 -0.2%
Trans: 18,245 -139.45 -0.8%
Utils: 1,099 -4.15 -0.4%
Nasdaq: 23,515 -14.63 -0.1%
S&P 500: 6,940 -4.46 -0.1%
|
YTD
+2.7%
+5.1%
+2.9%
+1.2%
+1.4%
| |
|
50,500 or 48,000 by 02/01/202619,400 or 17,750 by 02/01/20261,140 or 1,075 by 02/01/202624,750 or 22,700 by 02/01/20267,250 or 6,700 by 02/01/2026 | ||
Updated: 1/5/2026.
This is a forecast for the Dow transports on the daily scale for 2026.
Point A shows the forecast yearly low, B is when the index peaks and turns lower to C before climbing to end the year with a 16% forecast gain.
Below is the forecast for the years since 2014, presented in slider format (think slide show). Use the arrows on the left and right side of the chart to advance to the next slide (or go back one slide). The circles at the bottom of the chart allow you to move from slide to slide easily. Click on the circle to be taken to the associated slide.
The charts show the Dow Transports in black price bars and the forecast in red using the daily scale. The year is listed on the chart in the upper left.
The forecast is the red line and it's based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
The 2014 chart of a decade ago is smoother than the forecast one in 2024.
The forecast tracked the transports closely until May when they diverged.
In other market indices, the year 2016 showed the forecast and actual closes were near to one another. Indeed, the forecast tracked the actual transports until November. At year end, they were a dozen percentage points apart.
Despite being separated most of the year, the two converged to close just three percentage points apart.
The two lines were only two percentage points different at year end.
The forecast tracked closely the actual for most of the year (from May onward).
The COVID-19 pandemic took the markets down in a swift but short bear market in February to March, as the chart shows. By year's end, the index was above the start by 15%.
This is a chart of the Dow transports on the daily scale for 2025.
The forecast did well except for the large swing ending in April and the divergence in December.
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