As of 04/23/2024
Indus: 38,504 +263.71 +0.7%
Trans: 15,436 +212.01 +1.4%
Utils: 886 +2.63 +0.3%
Nasdaq: 15,697 +245.33 +1.6%
S&P 500: 5,071 +59.95 +1.2%
|
YTD
+2.2%
-2.9%
+0.5%
+4.6%
+6.3%
|
 39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 |
As of 04/23/2024
Indus: 38,504 +263.71 +0.7%
Trans: 15,436 +212.01 +1.4%
Utils: 886 +2.63 +0.3%
Nasdaq: 15,697 +245.33 +1.6%
S&P 500: 5,071 +59.95 +1.2%
|
YTD
+2.2%
-2.9%
+0.5%
+4.6%
+6.3%
| |
|
39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 | ||
Hook Reversal, Uptrend
|
| Characteristic | Discussion |
| 2 bars | The pattern is composed of two bars. |
| Uptrend | Look for the pattern in a short-term uptrend. |
| Inside day | The pattern forms an inside day. That means the first day in the pattern, the stock makes a higher high and lower low than the second day. The second day is inside the trading range of the prior bar |
| Open | The last bar of the pattern has an open within 25% of the intraday high. |
| Close | The last bar's close must be within 25% of the intraday low. |
| Open <> Close | The last bar's high and low cannot be the same. |
| Trading Tactic | Explanation |
| Reversal | The pattern is supposed to act as a reversal of the uptrend. However, testing shows that 52% actually continue higher. |
| Trade | Trade in the breakout direction. A breakout occurs when price closes either above the top or below the bottom of the pattern. |
| Measure rule | The hook reversal fulfills the measure rule 63% of the time (bull market, down breakout). That is, measure the height of the pattern and subtract it from the low price to get a downward target. For upward targets, add the height to the price of the top of the pattern. |
For the following statistics, I used 1,201 stocks, starting from January 1990 to March 2013, but few stocks covered the entire range. All stocks had a minimum price of $5. There were two bear markets in the 2000s (as determined by the S&P 500 index), from 3/24/2000 to 10/10/2002 and 10/12/2007 to 3/6/2009. Everything outside of those dates represents a bull market.
For each uptrend hook reversal, I found when the trend started and when it ended. To find the trend peak or valley, I found the lowest valley and highest peak within plus or minus 10 days (21 days total) each, before the hook reversal and the same peak/valley test after the hook reversal. The closest valley or peak before the hook reversal is where the trend began. The closest peak or valley after the hook reversal is where the trend ended. I compared the peak or valley to the average of the highest high and lowest low price of the hook reversal pattern.
The 10-bar peak or valley number tends to find major turning points on the daily charts.
I measured performance from the opening price the day after price closed either above the top or below the bottom of the pattern to the nearest trend peak or trend valley.
To determine the inbound price trend (I was looking for an up trend), I used linear regression on the average of the high-low prices in the five days before the pattern. That caught the short-term trend.
| Market/Breakout direction | 5% Failure | Average Rise/Drop |
| Bull market, up breakout | 44% | 7% |
| Bull market, down breakout | 49% | -6% |
| Bear market, up breakout | 39% | 8% |
| Bear market, down breakout | 31% | -11% |
Table 1 lists the failure rates, sorted by market condition along with the average rise or drop. Although the hook reversal is supposed to act as a reversal of the upward trend, I did not make that assumption. Instead, a trade occurred at the open the day after price closed above the top or below the bottom of the hook reversal.
A failure occurs when the stock fails to move more than 5% in the breakout direction.
The failure rates may appear high, but that's typical for short-term patterns like the hook reversal. The highest failures occur in a bull market.
| Market/Breakout direction | Success |
| Bull market, up breakout | 69% |
| Bull market, down breakout | 63% |
| Bear market, up breakout | 62% |
| Bear market, down breakout | 67% |
Table 2 shows how often the measure rule works. Use the measure rule to estimate of how far price is likely to move.
To do this, measure from the highest high to the lowest low in the pattern to get the height. Subtract the height from the lowest low or add it to the highest high to get the down/up target.
The best performance of the measure rule occurs in a bull market, with 69% of patterns reaching their target. Notice that the breakouts in line with the market trend (bull market, up breakout or bear market, down breakout) reach their targets more often than the counter-trend trades.
| Market/Breakout direction | Bull/Up | Bull/Down | Bear/Up | Bear/down |
| Net profit/loss | $75.95 | $(77.94) | $(80.24) | $69.50 |
| Wins | 57% | 43% | 46% | 53% |
| Winning trades | 4,291 | 4,688 | 756 | 1,542 |
| Average gain of winners | $705.89 | $742.84 | $717.92 | $772.91 |
| Losses | 43% | 57% | 54% | 47% |
| Losing trades | 3,300 | 6,137 | 897 | 1,379 |
| Average loss | ($743.17) | ($704.92) | ($752.93) | ($717.06) |
| Average hold time (calendar days) | 28 | 26 | 17 | 14 |
Table 3 shows the performance based on 23,120 trades using $10 commissions per trade ($20 round trip), starting with $10,000 per trade. No other adjustments were made for interest, fees, slippage and so on.
The results are sorted by bull or bear market, up and down breakouts. The trades used the same setup as listed in Hook Reversal, Uptrend, Performance Statistics.
Here's the setup.
For example, in a bull market, the net gain was $75.95 for all trades. The method won 57% of the time and there were 4,291 winning trades. The average gain of winning trades was $705.89.
Forty-three percent, or 3,300 trades were losers. They lost an average of $743.17.
The average hold time was 28 calendar days.
Notice how the gains and losses were pegged near 7%, which is how the test was setup.
The figure shows a hook reversal pattern in 3M (MMM) on the daily scale, shown in the inset.
Price rises leading to the hook reversal. Then an inside day appears (which is the hook reversal). On the second day of that pattern, price opens near the high and closes near the low for the day.
If this were a reversal of the uptrend, you would see a downward breakout. In a bull market that doesn't happen 52% of the time, such as the example shown here.
The breakout is at A when price closes above the red line (the top of the hook reversal). Buy at the open the next day, B. Hold until price either gains 7% or loses 7%.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
Below are other short patterns...
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