As of 04/22/2024
Indus: 38,240 +253.58 +0.7%
Trans: 15,224 +140.68 +0.9%
Utils: 883 +7.72 +0.9%
Nasdaq: 15,451 +169.30 +1.1%
S&P 500: 5,011 +43.37 +0.9%
|
YTD
+1.5%
-4.2%
+0.2%
+2.9%
+5.0%
|
 39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 |
As of 04/22/2024
Indus: 38,240 +253.58 +0.7%
Trans: 15,224 +140.68 +0.9%
Utils: 883 +7.72 +0.9%
Nasdaq: 15,451 +169.30 +1.1%
S&P 500: 5,011 +43.37 +0.9%
|
YTD
+1.5%
-4.2%
+0.2%
+2.9%
+5.0%
| |
|
39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 | ||
Open-Close Reversal, Uptrend
|
| Characteristic | Discussion |
| 1 bar | The pattern is composed of one bar but it references the close of the first bar. |
| Uptrend | Look for the pattern in a short-term up trend. |
| Open | The open must be within 25% of the intraday high. |
| Close | The close must be within 25% of the intraday low, but also be above the prior day's close. |
| Trading Tactic | Explanation |
| Reversal | The pattern is supposed to act as a reversal of the up trend, and it does, but only 50% of the time in a bull market. The breakout direction is random, in other words. |
| Buy | Once price closes above the top of the pattern or below the bottom of it, buy/short at the open the next day, respectively. |
| Measure rule | The open-close reversal fulfills the measure rule 84% of the time (bull market, up breakout). That is, measure the height of pattern and add it to the high price to get an upward target or subtract it from the intraday low to get a downward price target. |
For the following statistics, I used 1,149 stocks, starting from January 1990 to March 2013, but few stocks covered the entire range. All stocks had a minimum price of $5. There were two bear markets in the 2000s (as determined by the S&P 500 index), from 3/24/2000 to 10/10/2002 and 10/12/2007 to 3/6/2009. Everything outside of those dates represents a bull market.
For each open-close reversal, I found when the trend started and when it ended. To find the trend peak or valley, I found the lowest valley and highest peak within plus or minus 10 days (21 days total) each, before the open-close reversal and the same peak/valley test after the open-close reversal. The closest valley or peak before the open-close reversal is where the trend began. The closest peak or valley after the open-close reversal is where the trend ended. I compared the peak or valley to the average of the high and low price of the open-close reversal pattern (2nd day).
The 10-bar peak or valley number tends to find major turning points on the daily charts.
I measured performance from the day after the breakout (opening price) to the nearest trend peak or trend valley.
To determine the inbound price trend (I was looking for an up trend), I used linear regression on the average of the high-low prices in the five days before pattern. That caught the short-term trend.
| Market/Breakout direction | 5% Failure | Average Rise/Drop |
| Bull market, up breakout | 45% | 7% |
| Bull market, down breakout | 50% | -6% |
| Bear market, up breakout | 37% | 7% |
| Bear market, down breakout | 33% | -11% |
Table 1 lists the failure rates, sorted by market condition along with the average rise or drop.
A failure occurs when the stock fails to move in the direction of the breakout more than 5%.
The failure rates may appear high, but that's typical for short-term patterns like the open-close reversal. The highest failures occur in a bull market.
| Market/Breakout direction | Success |
| Bull market, up breakout | 84% |
| Bull market, down breakout | 76% |
| Bear market, up breakout | 81% |
| Bear market, down breakout | 80% |
Table 2 shows how often the measure rule works. Use the measure rule to estimate of how far price is likely to rise or drop.
To do this, measure from the high to the low in pattern to get the height. Add the height to the high or subtract it from the low to get the target. Price does best in a bull market after an upward breakout. It reaches the target 84% of the time, on average.
| Market/Breakout direction | Bull/Up | Bull/Down | Bear/Up | Bear/down |
| Net profit/loss | $118.67 | $(76.87) | $(91.36) | $67.85 |
| Wins | 59% | 43% | 45% | 53% |
| Winning trades | 1,092 | 1,440 | 135 | 342 |
| Average gain of winners | $712.74 | $750.46 | $705.35 | $768.85 |
| Losses | 41% | 57% | 55% | 47% |
| Losing trades | 750 | 1,882 | 167 | 305 |
| Average loss | ($746.29) | ($709.90) | ($735.40) | ($718.19) |
| Average hold time (calendar days) | 31 | 28 | 17 | 15 |
Table 3 shows the performance based on 6,167 trades using $10 commissions per trade ($20 round trip), starting with $10,000 per trade. No other adjustments were made for interest, fees, slippage and so on.
Here's the setup.
For example, in a bull market, the net gain was $118.67 for all trades. The method won 59% of the time and there were 1,092 winning trades. The average gain of winning trades was $712.74.
Forty-one percent, or 750 trades were losers. They lost an average of $746.29.
The average hold time was 31 calendar days.
Notice how the gains and losses were pegged near 7%, which is how the test was setup.
The figure shows the open-close reversal uptrend at A
Price rises leading to the open-close reversal. Price opens at the high for the day and closes near the intraday low, with the day's close remaining above the prior day's close.
The next day, price breaks out downward when it closes below the bottom of A.
The stock is shorted at the open of bar B.
A stop placed 7% above the entry price closes out the trade for a loss at C. The target price, not shown, would have been 7% below the entry price.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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