As of 10/07/2024
Indus: 41,954 -398.51 -0.9%
Trans: 15,783 -31.37 -0.2%
Utils: 1,027 -24.05 -2.3%
Nasdaq: 17,924 -213.95 -1.2%
S&P 500: 5,696 -55.13 -1.0%
|
YTD
+11.3%
-0.7%
+16.5%
+19.4%
+19.4%
|
43,500 or 41,600 by 10/15/2024
16,800 or 15,700 by 10/15/2024
1,125 or 1,025 by 10/15/2024
19,000 or 17,600 by 10/15/2024
5,900 or 5,600 by 10/15/2024
|
As of 10/07/2024
Indus: 41,954 -398.51 -0.9%
Trans: 15,783 -31.37 -0.2%
Utils: 1,027 -24.05 -2.3%
Nasdaq: 17,924 -213.95 -1.2%
S&P 500: 5,696 -55.13 -1.0%
|
YTD
+11.3%
-0.7%
+16.5%
+19.4%
+19.4%
| |
43,500 or 41,600 by 10/15/2024
16,800 or 15,700 by 10/15/2024
1,125 or 1,025 by 10/15/2024
19,000 or 17,600 by 10/15/2024
5,900 or 5,600 by 10/15/2024
| ||
This article discusses trendiness. What is trendiness? It describes how often price trends after the breakout from a chart pattern.
This type of information is most useful for swing traders because they want to catch the move after the breakout when price begins to trend. The below rankings will help swing traders select chart patterns that typically lead to strong trends.
I measured the move from the close the day before a chart pattern breakout to the first minor high or minor low. These are typically short moves before a throwback or pullback occurs.
The top performing chart patterns with upward breakouts are (click on the link for more information):
For downward breakouts, the best decliners are (click on the link for more information):
Several years ago, I received an email asking about an idea called trendiness. That is, which chart patterns result in price trending after the breakout?
I did some research to answer that question and this article shares those results.
I used my database of chart patterns and scanned it for confirmed patterns that dated as far back as April 1989 and as recent as October 2011 (I conducted the study on June 27, 2012). I found 37,594 patterns.
For each pattern, I found the nearest minor high or minor low after the breakout. To do that, I found the first minor high that was above any higher peak within five days (five days before to five days after, for a total of 11 days). The same applied to minor lows -- the lowest low within five days (11 days total).
Then, I measured the price change from the closing price the day before the breakout (to catch any breakout day gaps) to the high at the minor high or the low at the minor low.
I averaged the results for each pattern type and show those below.
The following table shows the results for upward breakouts only. Low sample counts are shown highlighted in red. Distrust the associated performance.
Rank | Gain | Samples | Pattern |
---|---|---|---|
Best | 30.57% | 520 | Flag, high and tight |
2 | 15.77% | 373 | Flag |
3 | 13.96% | 267 | Diamond bottom |
4 | 12.80% | 450 | Pennant |
5 | 12.50% | 375 | Rectangle bottom |
6 | 12.42% | 464 | Rounding bottom |
7 | 12.21% | 759 | Double Bottom, Eve and Eve |
8 | 11.84% | 522 | Three Rising Valleys |
9 | 11.76% | 772 | Double Bottom, Adam and Adam |
10 | 11.71% | 764 | Triangle, descending |
11 | 11.70% | 740 | Double Bottom, Adam and Eve |
12 | 11.66% | 532 | Falling wedge |
13 | 11.45% | 1,605 | Head-and-shoulders bottom |
14 | 11.44% | 968 | Triple bottom |
15 | 11.39% | 844 | Scallop, ascending and inverted |
16 | 11.37% | 183 | Diamond top |
17 | 11.28% | 478 | Double Bottom, Eve and Adam |
18 | 10.97% | 209 | Broadening top, right-angled and ascending |
19 | 10.95% | 1,138 | Scallop, ascending |
Rank | Gain | Samples | Pattern |
20 | 10.94% | 405 | Rounding top |
21 | 10.94% | 532 | Bump-and-run reversal, bottom |
22 | 10.64% | 509 | Broadening wedge, descending |
23 | 10.58% | 1,811 | Triangle, symmetrical |
24 | 10.20% | 642 | Rectangle top |
25 | 10.17% | 375 | Scallop, descending |
26 | 9.88% | 501 | Cup with handle |
27 | 9.42% | 487 | Head-and-shoulders complex bottom |
28 | 9.41% | 218 | Big W |
29 | 9.40% | 507 | Broadening top |
30 | 9.16% | 273 | Broadening bottom |
31 | 9.11% | 566 | Ugly double bottom |
32 | 8.95% | 1,057 | Triangle, ascending |
33 | 8.93% | 128 | Broadening wedge, ascending |
34 | 8.73% | 265 | Broadening top, right-angled and descending |
35 | 8.56% | 33 | Roof |
36 | 8.33% | 101 | Roof, inverted |
Worst | 7.89% | 403 | Rising wedge |
Rank | Gain | Samples | Pattern |
The following table shows the results for downward breakouts only. Low sample counts are shown highlighted in red. Distrust the associated performance.
Rank | Loss | Samples | Pattern |
---|---|---|---|
1 | -21.58% | 109 | Diamond bottom |
2 | -15.91% | 433 | Inverted cup with handle |
3 | -15.71% | 92 | Big W |
4 | -15.53% | 728 | Scallop, descending |
5 | -15.13% | 360 | Rounding top |
6 | -14.78% | 312 | Flag |
7 | -14.30% | 151 | Broadening wedge, descending |
8 | -13.87% | 529 | Three Falling Peaks |
9 | -13.04% | 786 | Double Top, Eve and Eve |
10 | -12.75% | 262 | Falling wedge |
11 | -12.69% | 198 | Broadening bottom |
12 | -12.52% | 545 | Double Top, Adam and Adam |
13 | -12.42% | 776 | Bump-and-run reversal, top |
14 | -12.31% | 317 | Diamond top |
15 | -12.27% | 505 | Double Top, Adam and Eve |
16 | -12.23% | 298 | Pennant |
17 | -11.72% | 450 | Head-and-shoulders complex top |
18 | -11.71% | 501 | Double Top, Eve and Adam |
Rank | Loss | Samples | Pattern |
19 | -11.70% | 740 | Scallop, descending and inverted |
20 | -11.66% | 1,034 | Triple top |
21 | -11.13% | 1,677 | Head-and-shoulders top |
22 | -11.13% | 100 | Roof, inverted |
23 | -10.88% | 338 | Rectangle bottom |
24 | -10.73% | 856 | Triangle, descending |
25 | -10.51% | 282 | Scallop, ascending |
26 | -10.24% | 348 | Broadening top, right-angled and ascending |
27 | -10.05% | 430 | Broadening top |
28 | -9.94% | 1,287 | Triangle, symmetrical |
29 | -9.49% | 331 | Rectangle top |
30 | -9.34% | 592 | Triangle, ascending |
31 | -9.30% | 51 | Cup with handle |
32 | -9.20% | 170 | Roof |
33 | -9.12% | 746 | Rising wedge |
34 | -8.40% | 193 | Broadening top, right-angled and descending |
35 | -7.70% | 271 | Broadening wedge, ascending |
Rank | Loss | Samples | Pattern |
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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