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Written and copyright © 2010 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Monday 3/15/10. Market Monday: The Week Ahead
A Brief Look Back
The following are economic reports that moved the markets last week. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.
Monday: Down 13.68 points.
Tuesday: Up 11.86 points.
Wednesday: Up 2.95 points. Wholesale inventories dropped more than expected.
Thursday: Up 44.51 points. Initial jobless claims were a smidgen higher, trade balance dropped.
Friday: Up 12.85 points. Retail sales were much higher than expected and business inventories held steady
For the week...
The Dow industrials were up 58.49 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 41.31 points or 1.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 11.29 points or 1.0%.
Economic Reports
The following information is derived from yahoo!finance and sometimes Bloomberg.com with times local to the east coast.
| Report | Time | A-F
Rating | Description |
| Capacity utilization | 9:15 M | B- | Gauges economic activity, hints of inflation. |
| Industrial production | 9:15 M | B- | Production of utilities, mines, and manufacturers. |
| Building permits | 8:30 T | B- | Measures building permits for new construction. |
| Housing starts | 8:30 T | B- | Number of homes beginning construction. |
| International trade | 8:30 T | C+ | Import/export prices, trade balance. US economy vs others. |
| FOMC Rate decision | 2:15 T | ? | The Federal Reserves reports on interest rate changes. |
| Producer price index | 8:30 W | B- | Measures wholesale goods cost. An indication of future inflation. |
| Crude inventories | 10:30 W | ? | My guess: Measures oil inventory. |
| Consumer price index | 8:30 Th | B+ | Inflation report. Measures cost of goods and services. |
| Initial jobless claims | 8:30 Th | C+ | Counts people filing for state unemployment benefits. |
| Leading indicators | 10:00 Th | D- | Summary of already known reports. |
Options Expiration
The following is courtesy of yahoo!finance and they stole it from The Options Industry Council.
| Option | Date |
| VIX, RVX expire | Wednesday |
| A.M. settled index options cease trading. | Thursday |
| Expiring equity, P.M. settled index options and treasury/interest rate options classes cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options cease trading at 12:00 P.M. EST. | Friday |
| Equity, index, cash-settled currency and treasury/interest rate options expire | Saturday |
Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions ahead of that, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).
CPI: Chart Pattern Indicator
As of 03/12/2010, the CPI had:
3 bearish patterns,
32 bullish patterns,
323 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 91.4%, which is
bullish (>= 65%).
The chart pattern indicator is bullish
with 2 of 3 full triangles showing ( ). Additional triangles are a measure
of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.
Other
Earnings season is over.
The following industries, of 52 that I follow, were the best (1) and worst (52) performing.
| This Week | Last Week |
| 1. Shoe | 1. Coal |
| 2. Coal | 2. Shoe |
| 3. Internet | 3. Toiletries/Cosmetics |
| 4. Furn/Home Furnishings | 4. Furn/Home Furnishings |
| 5. Toiletries/Cosmetics | 5. Internet |
| |
| 48. Electric Utility (East) | 48. Trucking/Transp. Leasing |
| 49. Homebuilding | 49. Electric Utility (East) |
| 50. Cement and Aggregates | 50. Cement and Aggregates |
| 51. Alternate Energy | 51. Alternate Energy |
| 52. Short ETFs | 52. Short ETFs |
My Prediction
The only index that shows anything of real interest this week is the transports. I picture it on the weekly scale.
The horizontal red line I drew from the most recent date backward in time to see where it lines up with prior peaks and valleys. It gives you an
indication of where overhead resistance is hiding. Two shoulders of a head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern I show at
A and B. Those valleys mark overhead resistance as well as other valleys going back further in time (some not so close by).
I drew a blue trendline connecting more recent peaks. The junction of these two lines could spell a turn in the transports. After 5 straight weeks of consecutively higher peaks,
you would think the index would want a rest.
What you might see forming in the coming weeks is a head-and-shoulders top. That's what I show as my guess to the right of the green line.
Since this is on the weekly scale, my prediction is not for this week but for several months into the future. This week or next, I expect the transports to make another high, but
to turn soon.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
Friday 3/12/10. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.
Go to Table.The following message is computer generated, is experimental, and not a comment by Mr. Bulkowski.
There were 59 chart patterns found this week (except for horns and pipes which appear on the weekly scale, so I give them more time) out of 675 stocks searched, or 8.7%. Based only on the percentage of chart patterns found, and excluding pipe bottoms (treated separately), the market is
trending since few consolidation patterns (chart patterns) appear.
Strongly trending markets (straight-line runs with little overlap from price bar to price bar) dampen the appearance of chart patterns, but individual stocks will consolidate from time to time, allowing chart patterns to form.
I found 12 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is very bullish! High numbers of pipe bottoms often signal or confirm a bullish market move (in fact, I see a lot of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally).
Excluding ETFs (some of which short the market, so a bullish pattern there is actually bearish), there were 41 bullish chart patterns this week and 10 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided.
Based on the comparison of bullish to bearish patterns only, this suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.
If a high and tight flag appears in the list, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole (a near double in price) and not the complete chart pattern (that is, it does not include the flag).
The following table shows the security symbol and type of chart pattern, including the start and end date of the chart pattern. Use the dates to help locate the pattern on your chart.
The information can serve as a starting point in your hunt for a promising trade using chart patterns.
The following tips may help. - Look for patterns with unusual breakout directions, such as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. The unusual breakout direction can suggest a strong run.
- Busted patterns, where price breaks out in one direction, turns around and then breaks out in the opposite direction can lead to powerful moves.
- Throwbacks and pullbacks occur about half the time, so be prepared for a retrace after the breakout.
- Look for underlying support and overhead resistance to help gauge how far price will move after the breakout.
More... Good luck. -- Thomas Bulkowski
| Symbol | Chart Pattern | Start | End | Industry | | AEE | Triangle, symmetrical | 02/11/2010 | 03/11/2010 | Electric Utility (Central) |
| AEP | Rising wedge | 02/22/2010 | 03/09/2010 | Electric Utility (Central) |
| AIG | Pipe bottom | 02/22/2010 | 03/01/2010 | Insurance (Prop/Casualty) |
| AMAT | Triangle, symmetrical | 01/21/2010 | 03/09/2010 | Semiconductor Cap Equip. |
| BBBY | Rectangle top | 02/18/2010 | 03/10/2010 | Retail (Special Lines) |
| CENX | Pipe bottom | 02/22/2010 | 03/01/2010 | Metals and Mining (Div.) |
| CQB | Pipe bottom | 02/22/2010 | 03/01/2010 | Food Processing |
| CTV | Pipe bottom | 02/22/2010 | 03/01/2010 | Telecom. Equipment |
| CLR | Triangle, ascending | 02/02/2010 | 03/11/2010 | Petroleum (Producing) |
| GLW | Pipe bottom | 02/22/2010 | 03/01/2010 | Telecom. Equipment |
| CR | Triangle, ascending | 01/14/2010 | 03/11/2010 | Diversified Co. |
| CY | Triangle, symmetrical | 02/19/2010 | 03/09/2010 | Semiconductor |
| DELL | Triangle, symmetrical | 12/09/2009 | 03/04/2010 | Computers and Peripherals |
| DO | Triangle, symmetrical | 02/09/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Oilfield Svcs/Equipment |
| DOW | Rising wedge | 02/01/2010 | 03/09/2010 | Chemical (Basic) |
| DUK | Triangle, symmetrical | 02/09/2010 | 03/09/2010 | Electric Utility (East) |
| ENER | Pipe bottom | 02/22/2010 | 03/01/2010 | Alternate Energy |
| ESV | Broadening bottom | 12/01/2009 | 03/04/2010 | Oilfield Svcs/Equipment |
| XOM | Triangle, symmetrical | 02/02/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Petroleum (Integrated) |
| FSLR | Head-and-shoulders bottom | 02/10/2010 | 03/09/2010 | Alternate Energy |
| FRD | Rectangle bottom | 01/13/2010 | 03/11/2010 | Building Materials |
| FTO | Pipe bottom | 02/22/2010 | 03/01/2010 | Petroleum (Integrated) |
| GE | Rectangle top | 11/09/2009 | 03/04/2010 | Diversified Co. |
| GES | Triangle, ascending | 02/02/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Apparel |
| HRS | Triangle, symmetrical | 01/28/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Telecom. Equipment |
| HOC | Pipe bottom | 02/22/2010 | 03/01/2010 | Petroleum (Integrated) |
| IEX | Rising wedge | 02/04/2010 | 03/09/2010 | Machinery |
| IRF | Rising wedge | 01/21/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Semiconductor |
| K | Rectangle bottom | 02/05/2010 | 03/11/2010 | Food Processing |
| LSI | Triangle, symmetrical | 01/27/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Semiconductor |
| MRO | Triangle, symmetrical | 02/02/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Petroleum (Integrated) |
| MOT | Pipe bottom | 02/22/2010 | 03/01/2010 | Telecom. Equipment |
| MYGN | Head-and-shoulders bottom | 01/26/2010 | 03/08/2010 | Biotechnology |
| NOV | Triangle, symmetrical | 02/05/2010 | 03/11/2010 | Oilfield Svcs/Equipment |
| PMTI | Rectangle bottom | 11/03/2009 | 03/11/2010 | Medical Supplies |
| POL | Rising wedge | 01/29/2010 | 03/09/2010 | Chemical (Specialty) |
| PLFE | Rectangle top | 02/19/2010 | 03/09/2010 | Insurance (Life) |
| PDE | Pipe bottom | 02/22/2010 | 03/01/2010 | Petroleum (Producing) |
| PGN | Head-and-shoulders bottom | 01/25/2010 | 03/10/2010 | Electric Utility (East) |
| SHAW | Rising wedge | 01/07/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Metal Fabricating |
| SHW | Triangle, ascending | 01/26/2010 | 03/11/2010 | Chemical (Basic) |
| SWN | Double Bottom, Adam and Eve | 02/05/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Natural Gas (Diversified) |
| SE | Rising wedge | 02/09/2010 | 03/11/2010 | Oilfield Svcs/Equipment |
| SCS | Pipe bottom | 02/22/2010 | 03/01/2010 | Furn/Home Furnishings |
| SMRT | Rectangle bottom | 01/28/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Apparel |
| SPWRA | Pipe bottom | 02/22/2010 | 03/01/2010 | Alternate Energy |
| TE | Rising wedge | 02/22/2010 | 03/11/2010 | Electric Utility (East) |
| TKR | Broadening top | 11/23/2009 | 03/11/2010 | Metal Fabricating |
| VLO | Broadening top | 01/07/2010 | 03/09/2010 | Petroleum (Integrated) |
| VSEA | Rising wedge | 01/29/2010 | 03/09/2010 | Semiconductor Cap Equip. |
| YHOO | Rising wedge | 02/03/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Internet |
| YGE | Head-and-shoulders bottom | 02/10/2010 | 03/08/2010 | Alternate Energy |
| IYE | Triangle, ascending | 02/02/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Petroleum (Integrated) |
| IGW | Rising wedge | 02/17/2010 | 03/11/2010 | Semiconductor |
| IGE | Rising wedge | 02/02/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Petroleum (Integrated) |
| PXE | Rising wedge | 02/02/2010 | 03/11/2010 | Petroleum (Integrated) |
| IXC | Triangle, ascending | 02/02/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Investment Co. (Foreign) |
| XLE | Rising wedge | 02/02/2010 | 03/04/2010 | Petroleum (Integrated) |
| XLU | Triangle, ascending | 02/02/2010 | 03/11/2010 | Electric Utility (Central) |
Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/03/2010 and 03/11/2010. Here are the chart patterns that appeared within the last week, many are unconfirmed (still in development and may not be valid). If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.
Definitions RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate. All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
Ameren (AEE)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $25.76
1 Month average volatility: $0.40. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $24.55 or 4.7% below the close.
Change year to date: -7.84%
Volume: 1,269,100 shares
3 month average volume: 1,702,469 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/11/2010 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
American Electric Power AEP (AEP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 363 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $34.22
1 Month average volatility: $0.45. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $35.24 or 3.0% above the close.
Change year to date: -1.64%
Volume: 2,909,400 shares
3 month average volume: 3,546,555 shares
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/09/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
American International Group (AIG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 588 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $35.11
1 Month average volatility: $2.20. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $30.62 or 12.8% below the close.
Change year to date: 17.11%
Volume: 46,531,600 shares
3 month average volume: 13,534,546 shares
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/01/2010
Performance rank: 2 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 596 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $12.41
1 Month average volatility: $0.32. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $11.63 or 6.3% below the close.
Change year to date: -10.98%
Volume: 30,593,200 shares
3 month average volume: 23,848,525 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/21/2010 to 03/09/2010
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 341 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $41.34
1 Month average volatility: $0.76. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $39.06 or 5.5% below the close.
Change year to date: 7.07%
Volume: 3,751,600 shares
3 month average volume: 2,875,163 shares
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/18/2010 to 03/10/2010
Performance rank: 12 out of 23. Breakout is upward 68% of the time. Average rise: 39%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 64% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 80% of the time.
Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 64 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $14.72
1 Month average volatility: $0.71. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $12.93 or 12.2% below the close.
Change year to date: -9.08%
Volume: 4,848,400 shares
3 month average volume: 5,673,851 shares
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/01/2010
Performance rank: 2 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.
Chiquita Brands International (CQB)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 545 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $15.73
1 Month average volatility: $0.59. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $14.32 or 8.9% below the close.
Change year to date: -12.80%
Volume: 774,400 shares
3 month average volume: 936,706 shares
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/01/2010
Performance rank: 2 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.
Commscope Inc. (CTV)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 485 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $29.00
1 Month average volatility: $0.77. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $26.76 or 7.7% below the close.
Change year to date: 9.31%
Volume: 1,168,700 shares
3 month average volume: 1,356,252 shares
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/01/2010
Performance rank: 2 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.
Continental Resources Inc. (CLR)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 429 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $41.50
1 Month average volatility: $1.05. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $39.04 or 5.9% below the close.
Change year to date: -3.24%
Volume: 341,000 shares
3 month average volume: 593,768 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/02/2010 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 17 out of 23. Breakout is upward 70% of the time. Average rise: 35%. Break-even failure rate: 13%. Throwbacks occur 57% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 75% of the time.
Corning Inc. (GLW)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 258 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $18.35
1 Month average volatility: $0.44. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $17.28 or 5.8% below the close.
Change year to date: -4.97%
Volume: 12,497,600 shares
3 month average volume: 15,671,512 shares
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/01/2010
Performance rank: 2 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.
Crane Co (CR)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 67 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $33.65
1 Month average volatility: $0.75. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $31.73 or 5.7% below the close.
Change year to date: 9.90%
Volume: 113,500 shares
3 month average volume: 299,032 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 01/14/2010 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 17 out of 23. Breakout is upward 70% of the time. Average rise: 35%. Break-even failure rate: 13%. Throwbacks occur 57% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 75% of the time.
Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
Industry: Semiconductor
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 201 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $12.37
1 Month average volatility: $0.38. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $11.41 or 7.8% below the close.
Change year to date: 17.14%
Volume: 1,935,400 shares
3 month average volume: 3,364,565 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/19/2010 to 03/09/2010
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Dell Inc. (DELL)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
Industry RS rank: 9 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 597 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $14.21
1 Month average volatility: $0.30. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $13.43 or 5.5% below the close.
Change year to date: -1.04%
Volume: 17,678,500 shares
3 month average volume: 27,413,112 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/09/2009 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Diamond Offshore (DO)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 532 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $89.58
1 Month average volatility: $1.93. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $84.64 or 5.5% below the close.
Change year to date: -8.98%
Volume: 1,057,200 shares
3 month average volume: 1,871,309 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/09/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Dow Chemical (DOW)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 134 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $29.40
1 Month average volatility: $0.73. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $30.87 or 5.0% above the close.
Change year to date: 6.41%
Volume: 7,604,400 shares
3 month average volume: 10,551,168 shares
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/01/2010 to 03/09/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
Duke Energy Corp (DUK)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 430 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $16.48
1 Month average volatility: $0.22. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $15.95 or 3.2% below the close.
Change year to date: -4.24%
Volume: 5,768,200 shares
3 month average volume: 7,707,848 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/09/2010 to 03/09/2010
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (ENER)
Industry: Alternate Energy
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 653 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $8.36
1 Month average volatility: $0.37. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $7.18 or 14.1% below the close.
Change year to date: -20.91%
Volume: 2,401,200 shares
3 month average volume: 2,679,265 shares
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/01/2010
Performance rank: 2 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.
ENSCO International (ESV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 232 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $45.51
1 Month average volatility: $1.16. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $42.64 or 6.3% below the close.
Change year to date: 13.95%
Volume: 2,187,500 shares
3 month average volume: 4,973,528 shares
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 12/01/2009 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 17 out of 23. Breakout is upward 53% of the time. Average rise: 27%. Break-even failure rate: 10%. Throwbacks occur 41% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 59% of the time.
Exxon Mobile Corp. (XOM)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 555 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $67.22
1 Month average volatility: $0.83. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $65.32 or 2.8% below the close.
Change year to date: -1.42%
Volume: 19,365,300 shares
3 month average volume: 29,823,906 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/02/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
First Solar Inc. (FSLR)
Industry: Alternate Energy
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 620 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $113.69
1 Month average volatility: $4.01. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $101.93 or 10.4% below the close.
Change year to date: -16.03%
Volume: 3,096,200 shares
3 month average volume: 2,713,855 shares
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 02/10/2010 to 03/09/2010
Performance rank: 7 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 38%. Break-even failure rate: 3%. Throwbacks occur 45% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 74% of the time.
Friedman Industries Inc (FRD)
Industry: Building Materials
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 537 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $5.63
1 Month average volatility: $0.11. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $5.85 or 4.0% above the close.
Change year to date: -3.43%
Volume: 3,500 shares
3 month average volume: 15,662 shares Based on the average volume, this security may be thinly traded (less than 100,000 shares)!
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 01/13/2010 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 12 out of 21. Breakout is downward 55% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 16%. Pullbacks occur 69% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 50% of the time.
Frontier Oil Corporation (FTO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 351 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $14.28
1 Month average volatility: $0.41. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $13.28 or 7.0% below the close.
Change year to date: 18.60%
Volume: 2,529,700 shares
3 month average volume: 2,057,032 shares
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/01/2010
Performance rank: 2 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.
General Electric Co (GE)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 360 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $16.48
1 Month average volatility: $0.28. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $15.76 or 4.4% below the close.
Change year to date: 8.92%
Volume: 64,857,500 shares
3 month average volume: 71,971,298 shares
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/09/2009 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 12 out of 23. Breakout is upward 68% of the time. Average rise: 39%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 64% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 80% of the time.
Guess Inc. (GES)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 152 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $45.38
1 Month average volatility: $0.98. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $42.39 or 6.6% below the close.
Change year to date: 7.28%
Volume: 1,265,800 shares
3 month average volume: 922,058 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/02/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 17 out of 23. Breakout is upward 70% of the time. Average rise: 35%. Break-even failure rate: 13%. Throwbacks occur 57% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 75% of the time.
Harris Corp (HRS)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 120 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $46.75
1 Month average volatility: $0.95. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $44.16 or 5.6% below the close.
Change year to date: -1.68%
Volume: 573,300 shares
3 month average volume: 833,528 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/28/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Holly Corporation (HOC)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $29.17
1 Month average volatility: $1.00. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $26.92 or 7.7% below the close.
Change year to date: 13.81%
Volume: 1,739,300 shares
3 month average volume: 783,771 shares
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/01/2010
Performance rank: 2 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.
Idex Corp (IEX)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 314 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $33.00
1 Month average volatility: $0.61. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $34.21 or 3.7% above the close.
Change year to date: 5.94%
Volume: 322,000 shares
3 month average volume: 320,546 shares
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/04/2010 to 03/09/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
International Rectifier Corp (IRF)
Industry: Semiconductor
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 423 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $21.99
1 Month average volatility: $0.53. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $23.32 or 6.0% above the close.
Change year to date: -0.59%
Volume: 678,500 shares
3 month average volume: 500,382 shares
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/21/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
Kellogg Co (K)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 378 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $52.69
1 Month average volatility: $0.57. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $54.12 or 2.7% above the close.
Change year to date: -0.96%
Volume: 2,333,900 shares
3 month average volume: 2,196,949 shares
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 02/05/2010 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 12 out of 21. Breakout is downward 55% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 16%. Pullbacks occur 69% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 50% of the time.
LSI Logic (LSI)
Industry: Semiconductor
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 488 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $5.53
1 Month average volatility: $0.16. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $5.11 or 7.7% below the close.
Change year to date: -7.99%
Volume: 10,048,700 shares
3 month average volume: 9,430,754 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/27/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Marathon Oil (MRO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 514 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $31.67
1 Month average volatility: $0.55. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $30.28 or 4.4% below the close.
Change year to date: 1.44%
Volume: 7,585,100 shares
3 month average volume: 6,261,074 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/02/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Motorola Inc (MOT)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 592 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $7.03
1 Month average volatility: $0.19. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $6.62 or 5.8% below the close.
Change year to date: -9.41%
Volume: 19,396,200 shares
3 month average volume: 39,308,243 shares
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/01/2010
Performance rank: 2 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.
Myriad Genetics Inc (MYGN)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 640 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $23.64
1 Month average volatility: $0.67. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $21.31 or 9.8% below the close.
Change year to date: -9.39%
Volume: 1,508,600 shares
3 month average volume: 1,636,157 shares
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 01/26/2010 to 03/08/2010
Performance rank: 7 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 38%. Break-even failure rate: 3%. Throwbacks occur 45% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 74% of the time.
National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 277 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $43.89
1 Month average volatility: $1.02. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $41.22 or 6.1% below the close.
Change year to date: -0.45%
Volume: 2,794,400 shares
3 month average volume: 5,091,994 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/05/2010 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 16 out of 23. Breakout is upward 54% of the time. Average rise: 31%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 37% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Palomar Medical Technologies Inc (PMTI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 644 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $10.24
1 Month average volatility: $0.34. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $10.97 or 7.1% above the close.
Change year to date: 1.59%
Volume: 86,700 shares
3 month average volume: 139,418 shares
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 11/03/2009 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 12 out of 21. Breakout is downward 55% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 16%. Pullbacks occur 69% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 50% of the time.
Polyone Corp (POL)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 28 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $8.88
1 Month average volatility: $0.29. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $9.47 or 6.6% above the close.
Change year to date: 18.88%
Volume: 399,400 shares
3 month average volume: 628,866 shares
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/29/2010 to 03/09/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
Presidential Life Corp (PLFE)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 349 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $9.97
1 Month average volatility: $0.26. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $9.38 or 6.0% below the close.
Change year to date: 8.96%
Volume: 132,400 shares
3 month average volume: 69,509 shares Based on the average volume, this security may be thinly traded (less than 100,000 shares)!
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/19/2010 to 03/09/2010
Performance rank: 12 out of 23. Breakout is upward 68% of the time. Average rise: 39%. Break-even failure rate: 9%. Throwbacks occur 64% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 80% of the time.
Pride International Inc. (PDE)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 407 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $30.62
1 Month average volatility: $0.89. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $28.36 or 7.4% below the close.
Change year to date: -4.04%
Volume: 2,531,400 shares
3 month average volume: 2,200,158 shares
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/01/2010
Performance rank: 2 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.
Progress Energy (PGN)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 522 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $38.87
1 Month average volatility: $0.46. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $37.54 or 3.4% below the close.
Change year to date: -5.22%
Volume: 1,421,300 shares
3 month average volume: 2,075,295 shares
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 01/25/2010 to 03/10/2010
Performance rank: 7 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 38%. Break-even failure rate: 3%. Throwbacks occur 45% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 74% of the time.
Shaw Group, Inc. (SHAW)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 323 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $35.04
1 Month average volatility: $0.86. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $36.76 or 4.9% above the close.
Change year to date: 21.88%
Volume: 487,300 shares
3 month average volume: 1,270,286 shares
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/07/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
Sherwin-Williams Co (SHW)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 370 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $65.25
1 Month average volatility: $0.91. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $62.07 or 4.9% below the close.
Change year to date: 5.84%
Volume: 1,245,500 shares
3 month average volume: 1,275,940 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 01/26/2010 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 17 out of 23. Breakout is upward 70% of the time. Average rise: 35%. Break-even failure rate: 13%. Throwbacks occur 57% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 75% of the time.
Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 331 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $44.38
1 Month average volatility: $1.33. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $41.51 or 6.5% below the close.
Change year to date: -7.93%
Volume: 4,163,600 shares
3 month average volume: 4,704,622 shares
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 02/05/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 8 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 37%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 59% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 66% of the time.
Spectra Energy Corp (SE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 220 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $22.32
1 Month average volatility: $0.35. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $23.07 or 3.4% above the close.
Change year to date: 8.82%
Volume: 2,080,500 shares
3 month average volume: 3,575,711 shares
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/09/2010 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
Steelcase (SCS)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 386 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $7.17
1 Month average volatility: $0.16. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $6.73 or 6.1% below the close.
Change year to date: 12.74%
Volume: 384,700 shares
3 month average volume: 455,532 shares
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/01/2010
Performance rank: 2 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.
Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 641 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $9.19
1 Month average volatility: $0.35. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $10.01 or 8.9% above the close.
Change year to date: -13.79%
Volume: 142,900 shares
3 month average volume: 242,843 shares
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 01/28/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 12 out of 21. Breakout is downward 55% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 16%. Pullbacks occur 69% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 50% of the time.
SunPower Corporation (SPWRA)
Industry: Alternate Energy
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 633 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $21.23
1 Month average volatility: $0.63. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $19.52 or 8.0% below the close.
Change year to date: -10.35%
Volume: 1,469,000 shares
3 month average volume: 2,222,778 shares
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/01/2010
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/17/2009. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/18/2010. Performance rank: 2 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 45%. Break-even failure rate: 5%. Throwbacks occur 44% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 83% of the time.
Teco Energy Inc (TE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 225 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $15.88
1 Month average volatility: $0.27. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $16.44 or 3.5% above the close.
Change year to date: -2.10%
Volume: 1,288,200 shares
3 month average volume: 2,136,602 shares
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/22/2010 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
Timken Co., The (TKR)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 140 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $27.86
1 Month average volatility: $0.65. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $29.23 or 4.9% above the close.
Change year to date: 17.50%
Volume: 552,400 shares
3 month average volume: 837,598 shares
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/23/2009 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 18 out of 21. Breakout is downward 50% of the time. Average decline: 15%. Break-even failure rate: 18%. Pullbacks occur 48% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 37% of the time.
Valero Energy (VLO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 358 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $20.41
1 Month average volatility: $0.46. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $21.82 or 6.9% above the close.
Change year to date: 21.85%
Volume: 12,332,700 shares
3 month average volume: 10,657,652 shares
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/07/2010 to 03/09/2010
Performance rank: 18 out of 21. Breakout is downward 50% of the time. Average decline: 15%. Break-even failure rate: 18%. Pullbacks occur 48% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 37% of the time.
Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associate (VSEA)
Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 568 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $30.34
1 Month average volatility: $0.77. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $32.55 or 7.3% above the close.
Change year to date: -15.44%
Volume: 1,253,100 shares
3 month average volume: 691,840 shares
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 01/29/2010 to 03/09/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)
Industry: Internet
Industry RS rank: 4 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 335 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $16.53
1 Month average volatility: $0.35. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $17.35 or 5.0% above the close.
Change year to date: -1.49%
Volume: 21,472,900 shares
3 month average volume: 20,812,066 shares
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/03/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd (YGE)
Industry: Alternate Energy
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 562 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $12.42
1 Month average volatility: $0.57. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $10.92 or 12.1% below the close.
Change year to date: -21.44%
Volume: 3,570,700 shares
3 month average volume: 5,448,125 shares
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 02/10/2010 to 03/08/2010
Performance rank: 7 out of 23. Breakout is upward 100% of the time. Average rise: 38%. Break-even failure rate: 3%. Throwbacks occur 45% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 74% of the time.
DJ US Energy sector (iShares) (IYE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 400 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $33.72
1 Month average volatility: $0.44. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $32.70 or 3.0% below the close.
Change year to date: 1.44%
Volume: 194,400 shares
3 month average volume: 241,622 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/02/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 17 out of 23. Breakout is upward 70% of the time. Average rise: 35%. Break-even failure rate: 13%. Throwbacks occur 57% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 75% of the time.
Goldman Sachs Semiconductor (IGW)
Industry: Semiconductor
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 439 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $48.24
1 Month average volatility: $0.90. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $50.21 or 4.1% above the close.
Change year to date: -2.01%
Volume: 221,400 shares
3 month average volume: 165,200 shares
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/17/2010 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
iShares SP Natural resources (oil) (IGE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 333 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $34.80
1 Month average volatility: $0.55. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $35.93 or 3.2% above the close.
Change year to date: 1.43%
Volume: 194,200 shares
3 month average volume: 390,595 shares
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/02/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
PowerShares Dynamic Energy (PXE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 286 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $17.42
1 Month average volatility: $0.21. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $17.83 or 2.4% above the close.
Change year to date: 5.07%
Volume: 3,700 shares
3 month average volume: 23,111 shares Based on the average volume, this security may be thinly traded (less than 100,000 shares)!
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/02/2010 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
S and P Global Energy Sector Index fund (IXC)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 440 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $35.59
1 Month average volatility: $0.52. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $34.33 or 3.5% below the close.
Change year to date: -0.25%
Volume: 86,000 shares
3 month average volume: 192,094 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/02/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 17 out of 23. Breakout is upward 70% of the time. Average rise: 35%. Break-even failure rate: 13%. Throwbacks occur 57% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 75% of the time.
SPDR Energy Select Sector (XLE)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 347 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $58.47
1 Month average volatility: $0.86. Volatility based stop (assuming a downward breakout): $60.30 or 3.1% above the close.
Change year to date: 2.56%
Volume: 13,036,600 shares
3 month average volume: 19,177,335 shares
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 02/02/2010 to 03/04/2010
Performance rank: 20 out of 21. Breakout is downward 69% of the time. Average decline: 14%. Break-even failure rate: 24%. Pullbacks occur 63% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 46% of the time.
SPDR Utilities Select Sector (XLU)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 51
Stock RS rank: 475 out of 667
Latest close as of 03/11/2010: $30.03
1 Month average volatility: $0.36. Volatility based stop (assuming an upward breakout): $29.08 or 3.2% below the close.
Change year to date: -3.19%
Volume: 3,665,100 shares
3 month average volume: 8,235,746 shares
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 02/02/2010 to 03/11/2010
Performance rank: 17 out of 23. Breakout is upward 70% of the time. Average rise: 35%. Break-even failure rate: 13%. Throwbacks occur 57% of the time. Price meets the measure rule target 75% of the time.
Thursday 3/11/10. Escape A Bear Market. Here's How
Pictured above is a line chart of monthly closing prices of the S&P 500 index along with a 12-month moving average of those closes (shown in
red).
Here are the trading rules.
- Buy into the market when the S&P 500 index rises above the 12-month simple moving average of closing prices.
- Sell when the index drops below the moving average.
Notice that during the start of the 2000 to 2002 bear market, the index drops below the moving average at A. This is a signal to sell and move into cash. In the 2007 to 2009 bear market,
the index also drops below the moving average (at B). In both cases, the index remains below the moving average until recovery begins at C and D.
If you were to use the 10-month moving average instead of the 12, price would pierce the average in the circle and also along the CB move at the first touch. Those would
have caused an unnecessary
transaction (buy then sell, or the reverse), so a 12-month SMA works better. The slightly longer SMA will get you back into the market slightly later at C and D than would the 10-month SMA.
If you were to test this, make sure you use the monthly closing price and not the highs or lows intra-month. You'll find that the moving average reduces draw down and risk
over buy-and-hold.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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