Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 12/13/2019
  Indus: 28,135 +3.33 +0.0%  
  Trans: 10,776 -13.65 -0.1%  
  Utils: 857 +7.17 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 8,735 +17.56 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 3,169 +0.23 +0.0%  
YTD
 +20.6%  
 +17.5%  
 +20.2%  
 +31.6%  
 +26.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/13/2019  
  Up arrow28,600 or 27,400 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,500 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow880 or 830 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow9,000 or 8,400 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow3,250 or 3,075 by 01/01/2020
As of 12/13/2019
  Indus: 28,135 +3.33 +0.0%  
  Trans: 10,776 -13.65 -0.1%  
  Utils: 857 +7.17 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 8,735 +17.56 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 3,169 +0.23 +0.0%  
YTD
 +20.6%  
 +17.5%  
 +20.2%  
 +31.6%  
 +26.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/13/2019  
  Up arrow28,600 or 27,400 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,500 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow880 or 830 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow9,000 or 8,400 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow3,250 or 3,075 by 01/01/2020

 

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Monday 12/16/19. Market Monday: Bullish Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I show a picture of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At B, the index formed a diamond top chart pattern, a very loose looking diamond. This one breaks out upward but that's not what's exciting

If you believe that the pattern acts as a mid-trend pattern (which many patterns do, occasionally), then there's money to be made.

I'm talking about pattern B appearing midway on the move from A to C (not shown). The AB move added to B would get you C.

Whether that will happen is anyone's guess.

 

 

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 105.46 points.
Tuesday: Down 27.88 points.
Wednesday: Up 29.58 points.
Thursday: Up 220.75 points.
Friday: Up 3.33 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 120.32 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 78.05 points or 0.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 22.89 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.5% down from the high of 28,290.73 on 12/13/2019.
     24.3% up from the low of 22,638.41 on 01/03/2019.
Nasdaq
     0.4% down from the high of 8,768.87 on 12/13/2019.
     35.3% up from the low of 6,457.13 on 01/03/2019.
S&P 500
     0.4% down from the high of 3,182.68 on 12/13/2019.
     29.7% up from the low of 2,443.96 on 01/03/2019.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 12/13/2019, the CPI had:

11 bearish patterns,
22 bullish patterns,
182 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 66.7%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  27,889  28,012  28,151  28,275  28,414 
Weekly  27,587  27,861  28,076  28,350  28,565 
Monthly  26,951  27,543  27,917  28,509  28,883 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,143  3,156  3,169  3,182  3,196 
Weekly  3,103  3,136  3,159  3,192  3,216 
Monthly  3,028  3,099  3,141  3,211  3,253 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,662  8,699  8,734  8,770  8,805 
Weekly  8,533  8,634  8,702  8,802  8,870 
Monthly  8,300  8,517  8,643  8,861  8,986 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 47.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 4 months up 24.4%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 3 weeks up 26.7%   The trend may continue. 
 4 months up 30.8%   The trend may continue. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 49.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 4 months up 20.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

 Found Chart Pattern Name
18Triangle, symmetrical
7Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
7Diamond top
6Head-and-shoulders bottom
6Rectangle top
6Double Top, Eve and Eve
6Double Bottom, Eve and Adam
5Double Top, Adam and Adam
5Triangle, descending
5Head-and-shoulders top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Computers and Peripherals
2. Semiconductor2. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
3. Computers and Peripherals3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Homebuilding4. Homebuilding
5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing5. Semiconductor

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/13/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 37 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 6.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 12 bearish ones with any remaining (11) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ABTTriangle, symmetrical      11/18/201912/11/2019Medical Supplies
ADSTriangle, symmetrical      10/31/201912/11/2019Information Services
AONPennant      12/06/201912/12/2019Insurance (Diversified)
BIGHorn bottom      11/18/201912/02/2019Retail Store
CALMRectangle top      11/14/201912/12/2019Food Processing
CINFBroadening wedge, descending      11/05/201912/12/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CLFBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      10/31/201912/10/2019Metals and Mining (Div.)
CNADiamond bottom      11/22/201912/12/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CMCORising wedge      09/13/201912/10/2019Machinery
CONNDead-cat bounce      12/10/201912/10/2019Retail (Special Lines)
DFSRoof, inverted      11/07/201912/11/2019Financial Services
^DJIDiamond top      11/15/201912/11/2019None
EXCTriangle, descending      10/30/201912/12/2019Electric Utility (East)
FFGHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/03/201912/06/2019Insurance (Life)
FISBroadening top, right-angled and descending      11/20/201912/11/2019Computer Software and Svcs
GMEDead-cat bounce      12/11/201912/11/2019Retail (Special Lines)
HLITTriangle, ascending      11/13/201912/12/2019Telecom. Equipment
HSICTriangle, symmetrical      11/20/201912/12/2019Medical Supplies
IPGBroadening top      11/13/201912/11/2019Advertising
KBHRoof, inverted      11/19/201912/10/2019Homebuilding
LHHead-and-shoulders top      11/18/201912/06/2019Medical Services
LANCTriangle, descending      11/19/201912/11/2019Food Processing
^IXICDiamond top      11/19/201912/10/2019None
NWYDead-cat bounce      12/06/201912/06/2019Apparel
NWLHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/26/201912/11/2019Household Products
NXGNDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/29/201912/12/2019Healthcare Information
ORIRoof, inverted      11/06/201912/12/2019Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RGADiamond top      11/18/201912/12/2019Insurance (Life)
^GSPCDiamond top      11/15/201912/11/2019None
SCHWTriangle, symmetrical      11/21/201912/11/2019Securities Brokerage
SHWTriangle, descending      11/15/201912/11/2019Chemical (Basic)
SMRTRectangle bottom      05/29/201912/12/2019Apparel
TLRDTriple top      11/07/201912/09/2019Retail (Special Lines)
TPRRectangle top      09/11/201912/12/2019Apparel
VRSNTriangle, symmetrical      10/08/201912/12/2019Internet
WSOBroadening top      11/01/201912/06/2019Retail Building Supply
WSMDiamond top      10/16/201912/12/2019Retail (Special Lines)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 12/05/2019 and 12/12/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 332 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $85.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.34 or 4.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 18.86%
Volume: 4,155,200 shares. 3 month avg: 6,008,617 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/18/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Alliance Data Systems Corp (ADS)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 554 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $108.94
1 Month avg volatility: $2.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $100.96 or 7.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -27.41%
Volume: 1,046,500 shares. 3 month avg: 546,969 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/31/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Aon Corp (AON)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 270 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $205.88
1 Month avg volatility: $2.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $198.99 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 41.63%
Volume: 772,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,174,512 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 12/06/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Big Lots Inc. (BIG)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $28.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.21 or 14.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.46%
Volume: 2,280,600 shares. 3 month avg: 984,457 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 11/18/2019 to 12/02/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 290 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $43.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.53 or 4.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.22%
Volume: 227,700 shares. 3 month avg: 322,132 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/14/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 358 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $106.18
1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $102.58 or 3.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 37.15%
Volume: 548,000 shares. 3 month avg: 534,966 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 11/05/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 495 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $8.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.65 or 9.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 15.21%
Volume: 15,105,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 10/31/2019 to 12/10/2019
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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CNA Financial Corp (CNA)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 477 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $44.35
1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.78 or 3.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.45%
Volume: 219,400 shares. 3 month avg: 204,923 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 11/22/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 69% of the time.
Average rise: 36%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

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Columbus McKinnon (CMCO)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 391 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $39.32
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.44 or 5.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 30.46%
Volume: 272,800 shares. 3 month avg: 120,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 09/13/2019 to 12/10/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 24%.
Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

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Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 559 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $13.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.44 or 17.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -30.14%
Volume: 2,137,800 shares. 3 month avg: 567,568 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 12/10/2019 to 12/10/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Discover Financial Services (DFS)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 219 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $86.38
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $88.86 or 2.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 46.46%
Volume: 1,320,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,443,809 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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DJ 30 Industrials (^DJI)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
12/12/19 close: $28,132.05
1 Month avg volatility: $162.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28,548.98 or 1.5% above the close.
Change YTD: 20.60%
Volume: 277,742,400 shares. 3 month avg: 248,255,040 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 524 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $44.10
1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.72 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -2.22%
Volume: 6,858,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,244,875 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 10/30/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 476 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $59.30
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.72 or 6.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.67%
Volume: 39,500 shares. 3 month avg: 24,305 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/03/2019 to 12/06/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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Fidelity National Information Svcs (FIS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 191 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $136.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $130.68 or 4.4% below the close.
Change YTD: 33.33%
Volume: 2,497,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,473,917 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 11/20/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is upward 51% of the time.
Average rise: 28%.
Break-even failure rate: 19%.
Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

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GameStop Corp (GME)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 383 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $5.58
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.33 or 13.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -55.78%
Volume: 6,386,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,063,175 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 12/11/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Harmonic Inc (HLIT)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 15 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $8.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.73 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 73.73%
Volume: 776,800 shares. 3 month avg: 585,235 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/13/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 456 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $68.82
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.33 or 3.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.35%
Volume: 714,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,211,905 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/20/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 323 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $23.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.72 or 2.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 11.78%
Volume: 2,797,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,516,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/13/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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KB Home Corp. (KBH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 47 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $34.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.34 or 7.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 81.68%
Volume: 992,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,684,634 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 11/19/2019 to 12/10/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Labratory Corp of America (LH)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 381 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $169.16
1 Month avg volatility: $2.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $175.46 or 3.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 33.87%
Volume: 475,800 shares. 3 month avg: 674,168 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 11/18/2019 to 12/06/2019
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 22%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

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Lancaster Colony Corp (LANC)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 340 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $158.34
1 Month avg volatility: $2.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $163.90 or 3.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -10.47%
Volume: 71,000 shares. 3 month avg: 112,417 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 11/19/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
12/12/19 close: $8,717.32
1 Month avg volatility: $57.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8,861.52 or 1.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 31.38%
Volume: 0 shares. Could not calculate the 3 month avg volume.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/19/2019 to 12/10/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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New York and Company Inc (NWY)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 579 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $0.90
1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.17 or 30.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -68.37%
Volume: 81,400 shares. 3 month avg: 105,818 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 12/06/2019 to 12/06/2019
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Newell Brands Inc (NWL)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 48 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $19.44
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.38 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 4.57%
Volume: 2,748,100 shares. 3 month avg: 7,205,206 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 11/26/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 38%.
Break-even failure rate: 3%.
Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

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NextGen Healthcare Inc (NXGN)
Industry: Healthcare Information
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 519 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $16.81
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.30 or 14.8% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.96%
Volume: 920,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 11/29/2019 to 12/12/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 07/25/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/23/2020.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.
Break-even failure rate: 14%.
Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

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Old Republic International Corp (ORI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 408 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $22.68
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.45 or 3.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 10.26%
Volume: 2,391,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,253,378 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 11/06/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Reinsurance Group of America (RGA)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 258 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $165.29
1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $169.81 or 2.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 17.87%
Volume: 289,000 shares. 3 month avg: 326,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/18/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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S and P 500 (^GSPC)
Industry: None
Industry RS rank is unavailable.
12/12/19 close: $3,168.57
1 Month avg volatility: $17.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3,211.33 or 1.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 26.40%
Volume: 2,217,305,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,826,019,249 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Schwab, Charles Corporation (SCHW)
Industry: Securities Brokerage
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 108 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $51.07
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.57 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 22.97%
Volume: 16,823,600 shares. 3 month avg: 6,527,123 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/21/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Sherwin-Williams Co (SHW)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 107 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $576.81
1 Month avg volatility: $7.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $595.91 or 3.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 46.60%
Volume: 420,300 shares. 3 month avg: 564,294 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 12/11/2019
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 432 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $0.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $0.81 or 13.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -33.66%
Volume: 70,800 shares. 3 month avg: 428,055 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 05/29/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is downward 55% of the time.
Average decline: 14%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 557 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $4.31
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.41 or 25.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -68.40%
Volume: 10,678,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,195,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/09/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 09/12/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 03/12/2020.
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

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Tapestry Inc (TPR)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 500 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $26.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.47 or 7.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.96%
Volume: 4,047,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/11/2019 to 12/12/2019
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/15/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/13/2020.
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Verisign (VRSN)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 497 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $189.97
1 Month avg volatility: $3.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $181.89 or 4.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 28.11%
Volume: 442,300 shares. 3 month avg: 871,351 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/08/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Watsco, Inc (WSO)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 254 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $180.75
1 Month avg volatility: $2.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $186.21 or 3.0% above the close.
Change YTD: 29.91%
Volume: 164,300 shares. 3 month avg: 222,320 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/01/2019 to 12/06/2019
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 120 out of 579
12/12/19 close: $70.11
1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.45 or 6.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 38.97%
Volume: 998,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,925,938 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/16/2019 to 12/12/2019
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Thursday 12/12/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.4% or 37.87 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 604 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 381 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 223 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 179/321 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

From the left, the chart shows a head-and-shoulders bottom at LS, Head, and RS. It confirms on Friday when the index gapped open higher.

More recently, valleys AB look like a double bottom or a big W with the sides stretched out wide (CD) as if welcoming traders with open arms.

Notice how D hasn't made it up to C yet, suggesting there's room for growth.

If you draw a trendline from the peak on the far left of the chart, touching C, it might touch D as well (D is below the line a smidgen). So there's overhead resistance, which suggests tomorrow's close won't be much above today's.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2019 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  8,253.18    
 Weekly S2  8,349.99  96.81   
 Monthly S1  8,453.62  103.63   
 Weekly S1  8,502.02  48.40   
 Monthly Pivot  8,579.76  77.74   
 Weekly Pivot  8,587.43  7.67   
 Daily S2  8,608.83  21.40   
 Low  8,622.35  13.52   
 Open  8,631.12  8.77   
 Daily S1  8,631.44  0.32   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,636.15  4.71   
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,640.42  4.26   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,644.68  4.26   
 Daily Pivot  8,644.96  0.28   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  8,654.05  9.09   
 High  8,658.48  4.43   
 Daily R1  8,667.57  9.09   
 Daily R2  8,681.09  13.52   
 Weekly R1  8,739.46  58.37   
 Monthly R1  8,780.20  40.74   
 Weekly R2  8,824.87  44.67   
 Monthly R2  8,906.34  81.47   

 

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