As of 12/13/2019   Indus: 28,135 +3.33 +0.0%     Trans: 10,776 -13.65 -0.1%     Utils: 857 +7.17 +0.8%     Nasdaq: 8,735 +17.56 +0.2%     S&P 500: 3,169 +0.23 +0.0%	YTD  +20.6%    +17.5%    +20.2%    +31.6%    +26.4%	Targets    Overview: 12/13/2019     28,600 or 27,400 by 01/01/2020   11,300 or 10,500 by 01/01/2020   880 or 830 by 01/01/2020   9,000 or 8,400 by 01/01/2020   3,250 or 3,075 by 01/01/2020
Chart pattern indicator: on 12/4/19

As of 12/13/2019   Indus: 28,135 +3.33 +0.0%     Trans: 10,776 -13.65 -0.1%     Utils: 857 +7.17 +0.8%     Nasdaq: 8,735 +17.56 +0.2%     S&P 500: 3,169 +0.23 +0.0%	YTD  +20.6%    +17.5%    +20.2%    +31.6%    +26.4%
Targets    Overview: 12/13/2019     28,600 or 27,400 by 01/01/2020   11,300 or 10,500 by 01/01/2020   880 or 830 by 01/01/2020   9,000 or 8,400 by 01/01/2020   3,250 or 3,075 by 01/01/2020
Chart pattern indicator: on 12/4/19

Monday 12/16/19. Market Monday: Bullish Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show a picture of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At B, the index formed a diamond top chart pattern, a very loose looking diamond. This one breaks out upward but that's not what's exciting

If you believe that the pattern acts as a mid-trend pattern (which many patterns do, occasionally), then there's money to be made.

I'm talking about pattern B appearing midway on the move from A to C (not shown). The AB move added to B would get you C.

Whether that will happen is anyone's guess.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 12/13/2019, the CPI had:

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 12/13/19. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 37 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 6.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 12 bearish ones with any remaining (11) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 12/05/2019 and 12/12/2019. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 332 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $85.97

1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.34 or 4.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 18.86%

Volume: 4,155,200 shares. 3 month avg: 6,008,617 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/18/2019 to 12/11/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Information Services

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 554 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $108.94

1 Month avg volatility: $2.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $100.96 or 7.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -27.41%

Volume: 1,046,500 shares. 3 month avg: 546,969 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/31/2019 to 12/11/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 270 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $205.88

1 Month avg volatility: $2.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $198.99 or 3.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 41.63%

Volume: 772,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,174,512 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 12/06/2019 to 12/12/2019

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.

Average rise: 25%.

Break-even failure rate: 2%.

Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 442 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $28.21

1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.21 or 14.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -2.46%

Volume: 2,280,600 shares. 3 month avg: 984,457 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 11/18/2019 to 12/02/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 290 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $43.66

1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.53 or 4.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 3.22%

Volume: 227,700 shares. 3 month avg: 322,132 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 11/14/2019 to 12/12/2019

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 358 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $106.18

1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $102.58 or 3.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 37.15%

Volume: 548,000 shares. 3 month avg: 534,966 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 11/05/2019 to 12/12/2019

Breakout is upward 79% of the time.

Average rise: 33%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 495 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $8.86

1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.65 or 9.0% above the close.

Change YTD: 15.21%

Volume: 15,105,400 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 10/31/2019 to 12/10/2019

Breakout is downward 66% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 20%.

Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 477 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $44.35

1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.78 or 3.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 0.45%

Volume: 219,400 shares. 3 month avg: 204,923 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 11/22/2019 to 12/12/2019

Breakout is upward 69% of the time.

Average rise: 36%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 391 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $39.32

1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.44 or 5.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 30.46%

Volume: 272,800 shares. 3 month avg: 120,960 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 09/13/2019 to 12/10/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 24%.

Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 559 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $13.18

1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.44 or 17.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -30.14%

Volume: 2,137,800 shares. 3 month avg: 567,568 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 12/10/2019 to 12/10/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 219 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $86.38

1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $88.86 or 2.9% above the close.

Change YTD: 46.46%

Volume: 1,320,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,443,809 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/11/2019

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: None

Industry RS rank is unavailable.

12/12/19 close: $28,132.05

1 Month avg volatility: $162.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28,548.98 or 1.5% above the close.

Change YTD: 20.60%

Volume: 277,742,400 shares. 3 month avg: 248,255,040 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 12/11/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 524 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $44.10

1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.72 or 3.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -2.22%

Volume: 6,858,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,244,875 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 10/30/2019 to 12/12/2019

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Life)

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 476 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $59.30

1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.72 or 6.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -9.67%

Volume: 39,500 shares. 3 month avg: 24,305 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 10/03/2019 to 12/06/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 191 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $136.73

1 Month avg volatility: $1.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $130.68 or 4.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 33.33%

Volume: 2,497,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,473,917 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 11/20/2019 to 12/11/2019

Breakout is upward 51% of the time.

Average rise: 28%.

Break-even failure rate: 19%.

Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 383 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $5.58

1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.33 or 13.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -55.78%

Volume: 6,386,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,063,175 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 12/11/2019 to 12/11/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 15 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $8.20

1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.73 or 5.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 73.73%

Volume: 776,800 shares. 3 month avg: 585,235 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 11/13/2019 to 12/12/2019

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 456 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $68.82

1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.33 or 3.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -12.35%

Volume: 714,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,211,905 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/20/2019 to 12/12/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 323 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $23.06

1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.72 or 2.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 11.78%

Volume: 2,797,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,516,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/13/2019 to 12/11/2019

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 47 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $34.70

1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $37.34 or 7.6% above the close.

Change YTD: 81.68%

Volume: 992,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,684,634 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 11/19/2019 to 12/10/2019

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 381 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $169.16

1 Month avg volatility: $2.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $175.46 or 3.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 33.87%

Volume: 475,800 shares. 3 month avg: 674,168 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 11/18/2019 to 12/06/2019

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 340 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $158.34

1 Month avg volatility: $2.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $163.90 or 3.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -10.47%

Volume: 71,000 shares. 3 month avg: 112,417 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 11/19/2019 to 12/11/2019

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: None

Industry RS rank is unavailable.

12/12/19 close: $8,717.32

1 Month avg volatility: $57.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8,861.52 or 1.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 31.38%

Volume: 0 shares. Could not calculate the 3 month avg volume.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/19/2019 to 12/10/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 579 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $0.90

1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.17 or 30.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -68.37%

Volume: 81,400 shares. 3 month avg: 105,818 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 12/06/2019 to 12/06/2019

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Household Products

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 48 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $19.44

1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.38 or 5.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 4.57%

Volume: 2,748,100 shares. 3 month avg: 7,205,206 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 11/26/2019 to 12/11/2019

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 519 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $16.81

1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.30 or 14.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 10.96%

Volume: 920,900 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 11/29/2019 to 12/12/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 07/25/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 01/23/2020.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Break-even failure rate: 14%.

Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 408 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $22.68

1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.45 or 3.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 10.26%

Volume: 2,391,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,253,378 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 11/06/2019 to 12/12/2019

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Life)

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 258 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $165.29

1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $169.81 or 2.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 17.87%

Volume: 289,000 shares. 3 month avg: 326,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/18/2019 to 12/12/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: None

Industry RS rank is unavailable.

12/12/19 close: $3,168.57

1 Month avg volatility: $17.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3,211.33 or 1.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 26.40%

Volume: 2,217,305,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,826,019,249 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 12/11/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Securities Brokerage

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 108 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $51.07

1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.57 or 6.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 22.97%

Volume: 16,823,600 shares. 3 month avg: 6,527,123 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/21/2019 to 12/11/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 107 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $576.81

1 Month avg volatility: $7.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $595.91 or 3.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 46.60%

Volume: 420,300 shares. 3 month avg: 564,294 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 12/11/2019

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 432 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $0.71

1 Month avg volatility: $0.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $0.81 or 13.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -33.66%

Volume: 70,800 shares. 3 month avg: 428,055 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 05/29/2019 to 12/12/2019

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 557 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $4.31

1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.41 or 25.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -68.40%

Volume: 10,678,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,195,355 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 11/07/2019 to 12/09/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 09/12/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 03/12/2020.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 500 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $26.34

1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.47 or 7.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -21.96%

Volume: 4,047,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 09/11/2019 to 12/12/2019

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 08/15/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/13/2020.

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Industry: Internet

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 497 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $189.97

1 Month avg volatility: $3.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $181.89 or 4.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 28.11%

Volume: 442,300 shares. 3 month avg: 871,351 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/08/2019 to 12/12/2019

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 254 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $180.75

1 Month avg volatility: $2.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $186.21 or 3.0% above the close.

Change YTD: 29.91%

Volume: 164,300 shares. 3 month avg: 222,320 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/01/2019 to 12/06/2019

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 120 out of 579

12/12/19 close: $70.11

1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.45 or 6.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 38.97%

Volume: 998,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,925,938 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 10/16/2019 to 12/12/2019

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Thursday 12/12/19. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

From the left, the chart shows a head-and-shoulders bottom at LS, Head, and RS. It confirms on Friday when the index gapped open higher.

More recently, valleys AB look like a double bottom or a big W with the sides stretched out wide (CD) as if welcoming traders with open arms.

Notice how D hasn't made it up to C yet, suggesting there's room for growth.

If you draw a trendline from the peak on the far left of the chart, touching C, it might touch D as well (D is below the line a smidgen). So there's overhead resistance, which suggests tomorrow's close won't be much above today's.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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