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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy
Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition book.
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Visual Guide to Chart Patterns book.
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Busted
Patterns
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Patterns
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Patterns
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 04/21/2017
20,548 -30.95 -0.2%
9,134 7.68 0.1%
706 4.81 0.7%
5,911 -6.26 -0.1%
2,349 -7.15 -0.3%
YTD
4.0%
1.0%
7.0%
9.8%
4.9%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 04/17/2017
20,100 or 21,150 by 05/01/2017
8,500 or 9,500 by 05/01/2017
725 or 685 by 05/01/2017
5,950 or 5,650 by 05/01/2017
2,275 or 2,425 by 05/01/2017
Mutt Winners: None YTD

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Monday 4/24/17. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

The chart shows a picture of the Dow utility index on the daily scale.

An ascending triangle, highlighted here in red, suggests a bullish turn for the index.

Why?

By the very nature of the triangle. They typically break out upward, so I'm looking for a rise in the stocks of utility companies. Just recognize that the breakout can be downward, too.

A close outside of the trendlines determines the breakout direction.

The height of the triangle at the start, added to an upward breakout price or subtracted from a downward breakout price, gives a target.

Tests performed for my book, Chart Patterns: After the BuyChart Patterns: After the Buy, pictured on the left, says that the pattern breaks out upward 64% of the time and downward 36% of the time. Price meets or exceeds the price target for upward breakouts 70% of the time and 55% for downward breakouts.

 

 

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 183.67 points.
Tuesday: Down 113.64 points.
Wednesday: Down 118.79 points.
Thursday: Up 174.22 points.
Friday: Down 30.95 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 94.51 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 105.37 points or 1.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 19.7399 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.9% down from the high of 21,169.11 on 03/01/2017.
     4.4% up from the low of 19,677.94 on 01/19/2017.
Nasdaq
     0.4% down from the high of 5,936.39 on 04/05/2017.
     9.5% up from the low of 5,397.99 on 01/03/2017.
S&P 500
     2.2% down from the high of 2,400.98 on 03/01/2017.
     4.6% up from the low of 2,245.13 on 01/03/2017.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/21/2017, the CPI had:

6 bearish patterns,
15 bullish patterns,
307 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 71.4%, which is bullish (>= 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  20,455  20,502  20,551  20,598  20,648 
Weekly  20,259  20,403  20,524  20,668  20,789 
Monthly  20,035  20,291  20,636  20,892  21,237 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,338  2,343  2,350  2,355  2,361 
Weekly  2,319  2,334  2,348  2,363  2,376 
Monthly  2,289  2,319  2,352  2,382  2,416 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  5,890  5,900  5,910  5,920  5,930 
Weekly  5,777  5,844  5,885  5,952  5,993 
Monthly  5,705  5,808  5,872  5,975  6,039 
  • Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
  • S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
  • If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
  • In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
  • A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
  • The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
  • Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
  • Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
  • Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 42.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months down 11.2%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 42.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months down 11.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 45.2%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month down 26.3%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
21Triangle, symmetrical
12Head-and-shoulders top
11Triangle, descending
9Rectangle top
9Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
6Triple bottom
5Triangle, ascending
5Pipe top
5Head-and-shoulders bottom
5Pipe bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

 

 

 

 

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Human Resources2. Securities Brokerage
3. Electronics3. Human Resources
4. Semiconductor4. Semiconductor
5. Homebuilding5. Insurance (Life)
50. Petroleum (Integrated)50. Shoe
51. Toiletries/Cosmetics51. Retail Store
52. Natural Gas (Diversified)52. Natural Gas (Diversified)
53. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment53. Toiletries/Cosmetics
54. Furn/Home Furnishings54. Petroleum (Producing)
55. Petroleum (Producing)55. Furn/Home Furnishings
56. Apparel56. Short ETFs
57. Short ETFs57. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 4/21/17. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 611 stocks searched, or 3.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
AEISChannel      04/29/201604/20/2017Semiconductor
CLRPipe top      04/03/201704/10/2017Petroleum (Producing)
CYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/06/201704/17/2017Semiconductor
GDTriangle, ascending      03/27/201704/20/2017Aerospace/Defense
GESTriangle, symmetrical      03/16/201704/19/2017Apparel
HSYRectangle top      02/09/201704/20/2017Food Processing
TILETriangle, symmetrical      02/27/201704/20/2017Furn/Home Furnishings
KSSTriangle, symmetrical      03/17/201704/19/2017Retail Store
LZBDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/04/201704/17/2017Furn/Home Furnishings
MASTriangle, descending      03/07/201704/18/2017Building Materials
NBRPipe top      04/03/201704/10/2017Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NEUTriangle, ascending      03/17/201704/20/2017Chemical (Specialty)
PTENPipe top      04/03/201704/10/2017Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
RESPipe top      04/03/201704/10/2017Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SNPSRectangle top      02/22/201704/20/2017Computer Software and Svcs
TKRRectangle top      01/11/201704/20/2017Metal Fabricating
EWLRectangle top      03/21/201704/20/2017Investment Co. (Foreign)
PPATriangle, ascending      03/23/201704/19/2017Aerospace/Defense
PEJRectangle top      12/07/201604/20/2017Long ETFs
XLPBroadening top      03/01/201704/18/2017Household Products

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/13/2017 and 04/20/2017. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 18 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $68.93
1 Month avg volatility: $1.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.22 or 6.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 25.90%
Volume: 406,300 shares. 3 month avg: 423,958 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Channel from 04/29/2016 to 04/20/2017

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Continental Resources Inc. (CLR)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 568 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $43.24
1 Month avg volatility: $1.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.76 or 8.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.10%
Volume: 2,208,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,599,872 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/03/2017 to 04/10/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 2 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 59 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $14.09
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.02 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.16%
Volume: 5,777,300 shares. 3 month avg: 7,173,420 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/06/2017 to 04/17/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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General Dynamics Corp (GD)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 97 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $188.13
1 Month avg volatility: $2.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $182.64 or 2.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 8.96%
Volume: 984,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,329,700 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/27/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Guess Inc. (GES)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $11.53
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.64 or 7.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -4.71%
Volume: 1,497,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,696,962 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/16/2017 to 04/19/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Hershey Company, The (HSY)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 234 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $108.80
1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $105.78 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.19%
Volume: 940,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,027,734 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/09/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Interface, Inc. (TILE)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 215 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $19.00
1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.90 or 5.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.43%
Volume: 414,100 shares. 3 month avg: 509,522 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/27/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Kohls Corporation (KSS)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 520 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $40.76
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.30 or 8.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.46%
Volume: 4,854,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,406,482 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/17/2017 to 04/19/2017
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 01/05/2017. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 07/06/2017.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 260 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $28.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.48 or 6.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.18%
Volume: 288,600 shares. 3 month avg: 367,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/04/2017 to 04/17/2017
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Masco Corp. (MAS)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 418 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $33.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.34 or 4.2% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.31%
Volume: 4,587,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,269,766 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 03/07/2017 to 04/18/2017
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 544 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $11.77
1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.06 or 11.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -28.23%
Volume: 7,768,300 shares. 3 month avg: 6,490,949 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/03/2017 to 04/10/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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NewMarket Corp. (NEU)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 275 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $453.88
1 Month avg volatility: $6.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $437.12 or 3.7% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.09%
Volume: 17,500 shares. 3 month avg: 35,357 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/17/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $22.45
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.31 or 8.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.60%
Volume: 3,190,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,041,734 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/03/2017 to 04/10/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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RPC Inc (RES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 513 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $17.87
1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.07 or 6.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -9.79%
Volume: 1,923,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,169,772 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/03/2017 to 04/10/2017
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Synopsys Inc (SNPS)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 39 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 115 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $72.56
1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $70.67 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 23.28%
Volume: 1,084,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,382,228 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 02/22/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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Timken Co., The (TKR)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 71 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $44.45
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.54 or 6.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 11.96%
Volume: 776,600 shares. 3 month avg: 866,049 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 01/11/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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MSCI Switzerland Index (EWL)
Industry: Investment Co. (Foreign)
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 336 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $32.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.78 or 1.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 9.16%
Volume: 620,100 shares. 3 month avg: 647,689 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 03/21/2017 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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PowerShares Aerospace and Defense (PPA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 198 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $43.89
1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.68 or 2.8% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.15%
Volume: 71,700 shares. 3 month avg: 107,688 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 03/23/2017 to 04/19/2017
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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PowerShares Dynamic Leisure (PEJ)
Industry: Long ETFs
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 250 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $41.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.02 or 2.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 2.65%
Volume: 22,600 shares. 3 month avg: 33,269 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/07/2016 to 04/20/2017
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 39%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

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SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector (XLP)
Industry: Household Products
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 56
Stock RS rank: 374 out of 603
4/20/17 close: $55.16
1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.90 or 1.3% above the close.
Change YTD: 6.67%
Volume: 9,736,600 shares. 3 month avg: 10,586,554 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 03/01/2017 to 04/18/2017
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Thursday 4/20/17. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.2% or 13.56 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 647 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 374 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 273 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 124/218 or 56.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/82 or 51.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart looks complicated, so lets go through it step by step.

The magenta pattern (LHS) is a head-and-shoulders top. The height of the pattern from the head to the neckline directly below, if subtracted from the magenta neckline, gives a price target. The index hit and exceeded the target the next day, at A.

Another head-and-shoulders bottom appears at LS-Head-RS for left shoulder, head, right shoulder. The green line is the traditional neckline. However, it slopes upward, meaning you'll get into the trade late. So I use a close above the red neckline to signal a breakout (the second A on the chart). In this case, the neckline breakout didn't affect entry due to the gap.

Price gapped higher at today's (Wednesday's) open but then collapsed to B. This retrace is a typical pullback. It suggests we'll move higher on Thursday. There's still a chance the index will rise far enough to meet the head-and-shoulders target.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2017 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,689.27    
 Weekly S2  5,755.98  66.71   
 Monthly S1  5,776.15  20.17   
 Weekly S1  5,809.50  33.35   
 Daily S2  5,833.01  23.51   
 Daily S1  5,848.02  15.01   
 Monthly Pivot  5,856.27  8.25   
 Low  5,856.34  0.07   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  5,858.68  2.34   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Close  5,863.03  4.35   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  5,870.99  7.96   
 Daily Pivot  5,871.35  0.36   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  5,874.43  3.08   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  5,875.51  1.08   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  5,880.03  4.52   
 Daily R1  5,886.36  6.33   
 High  5,894.68  8.32   
 Daily R2  5,909.69  15.01   
 Weekly R1  5,912.20  2.51   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  5,943.15  30.95   
 Weekly R2  5,961.38  18.23   
 Monthly R2  6,023.27  61.89   

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