Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 07/09/2020
  Indus: 25,706 -361.19 -1.4%  
  Trans: 9,140 -182.00 -2.0%  
  Utils: 774 -8.92 -1.1%  
  Nasdaq: 10,548 +55.25 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,152 -17.89 -0.6%  
YTD
-9.9%  
-16.2%  
-11.9%  
 +17.6%  
-2.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 06/30/2020  
  Down arrow24,000 or 27,800 by 07/15/2020
  Down arrow8,400 or 10,000 by 07/15/2020
  Up arrow825 or 700 by 07/15/2020
  Up arrow10,800 or 10,000 by 08/01/2020
  Down arrow2,900 or 3,300 by 07/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 7/8/20
As of 07/09/2020
  Indus: 25,706 -361.19 -1.4%  
  Trans: 9,140 -182.00 -2.0%  
  Utils: 774 -8.92 -1.1%  
  Nasdaq: 10,548 +55.25 +0.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,152 -17.89 -0.6%  
YTD
-9.9%  
-16.2%  
-11.9%  
 +17.6%  
-2.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 06/30/2020  
  Down arrow24,000 or 27,800 by 07/15/2020
  Down arrow8,400 or 10,000 by 07/15/2020
  Up arrow825 or 700 by 07/15/2020
  Up arrow10,800 or 10,000 by 08/01/2020
  Down arrow2,900 or 3,300 by 07/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 7/8/20

 

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Friday 7/10/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 23 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 585 stocks searched, or 3.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ACIWTriangle, symmetrical      06/15/202007/06/2020IT Services
AFLFalling wedge      05/29/202007/09/2020Insurance (Diversified)
ATOTriangle, symmetrical      04/17/202007/09/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
BBBYDead-cat bounce      07/09/202007/09/2020Retail (Special Lines)
BIGFlag, high and tight      04/28/202007/09/2020Retail Store
CPBTriangle, ascending      06/08/202007/09/2020Food Processing
CENXRoof, inverted      06/16/202007/09/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
CSCOTriangle, symmetrical      06/09/202007/08/2020Computers and Peripherals
CAGPennant      07/01/202007/09/2020Food Processing
DECKTriangle, descending      06/05/202007/09/2020Shoe
EXPTriangle, symmetrical      06/05/202007/08/2020Cement and Aggregates
EIGIFlag, high and tight      05/04/202007/09/2020E-Commerce
FICODiamond top      06/02/202007/09/2020IT Services
FEPipe bottom      06/22/202006/29/2020Electric Utility (East)
FLIRScallop, descending      06/05/202007/06/2020Aerospace/Defense
GESTriangle, symmetrical      06/10/202007/06/2020Apparel
HDTriangle, symmetrical      06/10/202007/09/2020Retail Building Supply
KDiamond top      05/28/202007/09/2020Food Processing
LMTFlag      06/29/202007/06/2020Aerospace/Defense
MCHXTriangle, symmetrical      04/28/202007/09/2020Advertising
NTGRBroadening bottom      06/16/202007/07/2020Telecom. Equipment
OTEXTriangle, symmetrical      06/10/202007/09/2020E-Commerce
SIGITriangle, symmetrical      06/15/202007/07/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SLCATriangle, descending      06/09/202007/09/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/02/2020 and 07/09/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
ACI Worldwide (ACIW)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 470 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $25.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.36 or 10.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -33.77%
Volume: 755,000 shares. 3 month avg: 464,565 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/06/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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AFLAC Inc (AFL)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 471 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $33.97
1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.16 or 8.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -35.78%
Volume: 3,806,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,541,537 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 05/29/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 68% of the time.
Average rise: 32%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Atmos Energy Corp (ATO)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 254 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $97.69
1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $92.28 or 5.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.67%
Volume: 819,000 shares. 3 month avg: 444,800 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/17/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 538 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $7.86
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.88 or 38.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -54.57%
Volume: 66,263,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,821,077 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/09/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Big Lots Inc. (BIG)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 25 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $40.96
1 Month avg volatility: $2.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.34 or 11.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 42.62%
Volume: 726,700 shares. 3 month avg: 984,457 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/28/2020 to 07/09/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Campbell Soup Co (CPB)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 135 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $49.41
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.19 or 4.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -0.02%
Volume: 1,180,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,769,580 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/08/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 70% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

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Century Aluminum Co. (CENX)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 224 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $6.97
1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.18 or 17.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -7.25%
Volume: 787,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,285,742 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/09/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 12/10/2020.
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

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Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 180 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $46.70
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.96 or 5.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.63%
Volume: 25,667,000 shares. 3 month avg: 19,682,477 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/09/2020 to 07/08/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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ConAgra Brands Inc (CAG)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 92 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $35.60
1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.82 or 5.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 3.97%
Volume: 2,870,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,423,360 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 07/01/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 84 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $190.02
1 Month avg volatility: $7.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $212.22 or 11.7% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.53%
Volume: 448,100 shares. 3 month avg: 637,325 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 368 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $69.44
1 Month avg volatility: $2.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.15 or 9.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.41%
Volume: 332,600 shares. 3 month avg: 553,088 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/08/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 297 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $4.15
1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.40 or 18.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.70%
Volume: 593,500 shares. 3 month avg: 656,929 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 05/04/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Fair Isaac Corp (FICO)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 116 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $421.76
1 Month avg volatility: $14.25. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $457.05 or 8.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 12.57%
Volume: 255,300 shares. 3 month avg: 162,437 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 06/02/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 296 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $40.19
1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.42 or 6.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -17.30%
Volume: 3,781,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,155,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/22/2020 to 06/29/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Flir Systems Inc (FLIR)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 389 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $39.94
1 Month avg volatility: $1.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.59 or 9.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -23.30%
Volume: 1,246,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Scallop, descending continuation pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/06/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/27/2020.
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 17%.
Break-even failure rate: 15%.
Pullbacks occur 55% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 30% of the time.

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Guess Inc. (GES)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 555 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $9.14
1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.67 or 16.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -59.16%
Volume: 1,756,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,269,442 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/06/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Home Depot, Inc (HD)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 91 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $247.96
1 Month avg volatility: $5.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $234.96 or 5.2% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.55%
Volume: 2,993,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,416,295 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Kellogg Co (K)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 210 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $65.90
1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.29 or 5.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.71%
Volume: 1,708,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,593,774 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 05/28/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is downward 69% of the time.
Average decline: 21%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

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Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 313 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $339.96
1 Month avg volatility: $9.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $320.88 or 5.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.69%
Volume: 1,823,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,022,062 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 06/29/2020 to 07/06/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 23%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

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Marchex, Inc (MCHX)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 544 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $1.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.29 or 21.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -56.35%
Volume: 165,400 shares. 3 month avg: 97,160 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/28/2020 to 07/09/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/13/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/13/2020.
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Netgear Inc. (NTGR)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 209 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $24.26
1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.00 or 9.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -1.02%
Volume: 290,600 shares. 3 month avg: 452,812 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/07/2020
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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Open Text Corp (OTEX)
Industry: E-Commerce
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 205 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $43.13
1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.79 or 5.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -2.13%
Volume: 563,200 shares. 3 month avg: 520,157 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/09/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 357 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $51.33
1 Month avg volatility: $1.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.45 or 7.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -21.26%
Volume: 377,000 shares. 3 month avg: 158,554 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/07/2020
Breakout is upward 54% of the time.
Average rise: 31%.
Break-even failure rate: 9%.
Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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U.S Silica Holdings Inc (SLCA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 513 out of 580
7/9/20 close: $3.20
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.13 or 29.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -47.97%
Volume: 1,054,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/09/2020 to 07/09/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 12/10/2020.
Breakout is downward 64% of the time.
Average decline: 16%.
Break-even failure rate: 16%.
Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

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Thursday 7/9/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.4% or 148.61 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 107 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 60 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 47 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 191/342 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 56/113 or 49.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The head-and-shoulders bottom that appeared a week ago I show here as LS-Head-RS. The index made a nice run up after that pattern completed.

Another one formed on Monday, but it was a potential head-and-shoulders top. I show that as LHR on the chart.

I write 'potential' because the pattern never confirmed as valid (price never closed below the neckline).

Instead, a double bottom appeared at AB. This confirmed when the index closed above the top of the chart pattern. I show that at C, but it may be hard to see. It suggest price will continue moving up by, oh, 150 points.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,056.90    
 Weekly S2  9,508.74  451.84   
 Monthly S1  9,774.70  265.96   
 Weekly S1  10,000.62  225.92   
 Monthly Pivot  10,042.53  41.91   
 Weekly Pivot  10,155.49  112.96   
 Daily S2  10,302.36  146.87   
 Low  10,350.96  48.60   
 Daily S1  10,397.43  46.47   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  10,405.84  8.41   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  10,409.35  3.51   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  10,422.79  13.45   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  10,439.75  16.95   
 Daily Pivot  10,446.03  6.28   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  10,492.50  46.47   
 High  10,494.63  2.13   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  10,541.10  46.47   
 Daily R2  10,589.70  48.60   
 Weekly R1  10,647.37  57.67   
 Monthly R1  10,760.33  112.96   
 Weekly R2  10,802.24  41.91   
 Monthly R2  11,028.16  225.92   

Wednesday 7/8/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator turned green, which is bullish, about a week ago and it's still bullish today.

However, look at the signal line, that thin blue thing near the bottom of the chart. It has turned down, hasn't it?

Combined with the index hitting overhead resistance setup by the early June peak, it could be the index will drop from here. So the chart is bullish but hinting of a downturn.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 60% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 62%.
The fewest was 20% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 96% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 479 stocks in my database are down an average of 27% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 27%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 47% on 03/23/2020.

Usually this chart doesn't tell us anything we don't already know. Why? Because the two red and blue indicator lines hug price movement. When the index burps, so do the two lines.

The above text says the more sensitive red line has shown improvement from a week ago.

Now look at A, the brown or orange lines. They show bearish divergence. In other words, the index has a higher peak and the indicators show lower peaks. That's not good.

This chart, combined with the prior one suggests the index is going down. Maybe not hard and fast, but there's weakness underlying the market. That's my take, anyway.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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