As of 07/09/2020   Indus: 25,706 -361.19 -1.4%     Trans: 9,140 -182.00 -2.0%     Utils: 774 -8.92 -1.1%     Nasdaq: 10,548 +55.25 +0.5%     S&P 500: 3,152 -17.89 -0.6%	YTD -9.9%   -16.2%   -11.9%    +17.6%   -2.4%	Targets    Overview: 06/30/2020     24,000 or 27,800 by 07/15/2020   8,400 or 10,000 by 07/15/2020   825 or 700 by 07/15/2020   10,800 or 10,000 by 08/01/2020   2,900 or 3,300 by 07/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): on 7/8/20

As of 07/09/2020   Indus: 25,706 -361.19 -1.4%     Trans: 9,140 -182.00 -2.0%     Utils: 774 -8.92 -1.1%     Nasdaq: 10,548 +55.25 +0.5%     S&P 500: 3,152 -17.89 -0.6%	YTD -9.9%   -16.2%   -11.9%    +17.6%   -2.4%
Targets    Overview: 06/30/2020     24,000 or 27,800 by 07/15/2020   8,400 or 10,000 by 07/15/2020   825 or 700 by 07/15/2020   10,800 or 10,000 by 08/01/2020   2,900 or 3,300 by 07/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): on 7/8/20

Friday 7/10/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 23 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 585 stocks searched, or 3.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/02/2020 and 07/09/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 470 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $25.09

1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.36 or 10.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -33.77%

Volume: 755,000 shares. 3 month avg: 464,565 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/06/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 471 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $33.97

1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.16 or 8.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -35.78%

Volume: 3,806,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,541,537 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 05/29/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 32%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 254 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $97.69

1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $92.28 or 5.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -12.67%

Volume: 819,000 shares. 3 month avg: 444,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/17/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 538 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $7.86

1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.88 or 38.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -54.57%

Volume: 66,263,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,821,077 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/09/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 25 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $40.96

1 Month avg volatility: $2.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.34 or 11.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 42.62%

Volume: 726,700 shares. 3 month avg: 984,457 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/28/2020 to 07/09/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 135 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $49.41

1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.19 or 4.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.02%

Volume: 1,180,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,769,580 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/08/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 224 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $6.97

1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.18 or 17.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -7.25%

Volume: 787,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,285,742 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/09/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 12/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Computers and Peripherals

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 180 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $46.70

1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.96 or 5.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -2.63%

Volume: 25,667,000 shares. 3 month avg: 19,682,477 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/09/2020 to 07/08/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 92 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $35.60

1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.82 or 5.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 3.97%

Volume: 2,870,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,423,360 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 07/01/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.

Average rise: 25%.

Break-even failure rate: 2%.

Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 84 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $190.02

1 Month avg volatility: $7.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $212.22 or 11.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 12.53%

Volume: 448,100 shares. 3 month avg: 637,325 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 368 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $69.44

1 Month avg volatility: $2.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.15 or 9.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -23.41%

Volume: 332,600 shares. 3 month avg: 553,088 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/08/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: E-Commerce

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 297 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $4.15

1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.40 or 18.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -11.70%

Volume: 593,500 shares. 3 month avg: 656,929 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 05/04/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 116 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $421.76

1 Month avg volatility: $14.25. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $457.05 or 8.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 12.57%

Volume: 255,300 shares. 3 month avg: 162,437 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 06/02/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 296 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $40.19

1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.42 or 6.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -17.30%

Volume: 3,781,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,155,280 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/22/2020 to 06/29/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 389 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $39.94

1 Month avg volatility: $1.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.59 or 9.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -23.30%

Volume: 1,246,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, descending continuation pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/06/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/27/2020.

Breakout is downward 66% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 15%.

Pullbacks occur 55% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 30% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 555 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $9.14

1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.67 or 16.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -59.16%

Volume: 1,756,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,269,442 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/06/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 91 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $247.96

1 Month avg volatility: $5.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $234.96 or 5.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 13.55%

Volume: 2,993,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,416,295 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 210 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $65.90

1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.29 or 5.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -4.71%

Volume: 1,708,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,593,774 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 05/28/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 313 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $339.96

1 Month avg volatility: $9.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $320.88 or 5.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -12.69%

Volume: 1,823,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,022,062 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 06/29/2020 to 07/06/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 23%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 544 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $1.65

1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.29 or 21.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -56.35%

Volume: 165,400 shares. 3 month avg: 97,160 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/28/2020 to 07/09/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/13/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/13/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 209 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $24.26

1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.00 or 9.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -1.02%

Volume: 290,600 shares. 3 month avg: 452,812 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/07/2020

Breakout is upward 53% of the time.

Average rise: 27%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Industry: E-Commerce

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 205 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $43.13

1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.79 or 5.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -2.13%

Volume: 563,200 shares. 3 month avg: 520,157 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 357 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $51.33

1 Month avg volatility: $1.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.45 or 7.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -21.26%

Volume: 377,000 shares. 3 month avg: 158,554 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/07/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 513 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $3.20

1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.13 or 29.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -47.97%

Volume: 1,054,300 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/09/2020 to 07/09/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 12/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Thursday 7/9/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The head-and-shoulders bottom that appeared a week ago I show here as LS-Head-RS. The index made a nice run up after that pattern completed.

Another one formed on Monday, but it was a potential head-and-shoulders top. I show that as LHR on the chart.

I write 'potential' because the pattern never confirmed as valid (price never closed below the neckline).

Instead, a double bottom appeared at AB. This confirmed when the index closed above the top of the chart pattern. I show that at C, but it may be hard to see. It suggest price will continue moving up by, oh, 150 points.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 7/8/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator turned green, which is bullish, about a week ago and it's still bullish today.

However, look at the signal line, that thin blue thing near the bottom of the chart. It has turned down, hasn't it?

Combined with the index hitting overhead resistance setup by the early June peak, it could be the index will drop from here. So the chart is bullish but hinting of a downturn.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Usually this chart doesn't tell us anything we don't already know. Why? Because the two red and blue indicator lines hug price movement. When the index burps, so do the two lines.

The above text says the more sensitive red line has shown improvement from a week ago.

Now look at A, the brown or orange lines. They show bearish divergence. In other words, the index has a higher peak and the indicators show lower peaks. That's not good.

This chart, combined with the prior one suggests the index is going down. Maybe not hard and fast, but there's weakness underlying the market. That's my take, anyway.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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