As of 11/20/2019
  Indus: 27,821 -112.93 -0.4%  
  Trans: 10,695 -152.59 -1.4%  
  Utils: 855 +6.70 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 8,527 -43.93 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,108 -11.72 -0.4%  
YTD
 +19.3%  
 +16.6%  
 +19.9%  
 +28.5%  
 +24.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/14/2019  
  Up arrow28,200 or 27,100 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow11,400 or 10,600 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow8,700 or 8,200 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow3,200 or 3,025 by 12/01/2019
As of 11/20/2019
  Indus: 27,821 -112.93 -0.4%  
  Trans: 10,695 -152.59 -1.4%  
  Utils: 855 +6.70 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 8,527 -43.93 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 3,108 -11.72 -0.4%  
YTD
 +19.3%  
 +16.6%  
 +19.9%  
 +28.5%  
 +24.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/14/2019  
  Up arrow28,200 or 27,100 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow11,400 or 10,600 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow8,700 or 8,200 by 12/01/2019
  Up arrow3,200 or 3,025 by 12/01/2019

Bulkowski's Evening Doji Star

 

My book, Encyclopedia of Candlestick ChartsEncyclopedia of Candlestick Charts book., pictured on the left, takes an in-depth look at candlesticks, including performance statistics.

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-- Tom Bulkowski

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The evening doji star is one of the better performing candlestick patterns. It has a high reversal rate, ranking 12th, and the performance over time is respectable, too, but not outstanding. A check of the numbers shows that downward breakouts are weakest, and upward ones are strongest with the bear market/up breakout configuration doing the best of the bunch. The trouble with this pattern is its rarity, ranking 81st out of 103 candles where 1 is voted most popular. Few samples are probably why this candlestick does so well.

Let's take a closer look at this candle pattern.

Important Results
Discussion
Identification Guidelines
Three Trading Tidbits
Example
See Also

Evening Doji Star: Important Results

Theoretical performance: Bearish reversal
Tested performance: Bearish reversal 71% of the time
Frequency rank: 81
Overall performance rank: 30
Best percentage meeting price target: 57% (bear market, up breakout)
Best average move in 10 days: 6.20% (bear market, up breakout)
Best 10-day performance rank: 15 (bull market, up breakout)

All ranks are out of 103 candlestick patterns with the top performer ranking 1. "Best" means the highest rated of the four combinations of bull/bear market, up/down breakouts.

The above numbers are based on hundreds of perfect trades. See the glossary for definitions.

The ideal evening doji star candlestick
Evening Doji Star

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Evening Doji Star: Discussion

Candle theory says that the evening doji star pattern should act as a bearish reversal of the upward price trend, and testing reveals that it does 71% of the time. That gives the candle a rank of 12th, which is quite high. However, with a frequency rank of 81st, you might not find this candle. The overall performance rank is 30th, so it could be a better performer over time, but actually does quite well -- thank you very much.

The best average move 10 days after the breakout is a rise of 6.2%, but just 28 patterns account for the percentage. Thus, the results are likely to change. The best performance rank over 10 days comes after an upward breakout in a bull market. The rank is 15th, which is quite high, and 199 samples are used, so the rank is realistic, too.

Evening Doji Star Identification Guidelines

CharacteristicDiscussion
Number of candle linesThree.
Price trend leading to the patternUpward.
ConfigurationLook for a tall white candle in an upward price trend followed by a doji whose body gaps above the two surrounding days. Ignore the shadows. The last day is a tall black candle that closes at or below the mid point of the first day.

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Evening Doji Star: Three Trading Tidbits

If you want a few bones from my Encyclopedia of candlestick charts book, here are three to chew on. The pages refer to the book where the tips appear.

  1. Evening doji star candles with upward breakouts perform well -- page 329.
  2. Select tall candles for the best performance -- page 320-330.
  3. Evening doji stars within a third of the yearly low tend to act as reversals most often -- page 332.

Evening Doji Star: Example

The evening doji star candlestick on the daily scale

The evening doji star appears circled in red on the daily scale. Price moves up to a tall white candle. The next day, a doji forms whose body floats above the bodies of the surrounding two candles. The next day, a black candle takes price below the mid point of the body of the first candle in the pattern, completing the evening doji star.

This evening doji star acts as a bearish reversal of the upward price trend because price rises into the pattern and breaks out downward. A downward breakout occurs when price closes below the bottom of the candlestick pattern.

Since price in the last candle is already near the low, a downward breakout is expected -- not guaranteed, just expected. A check of the numbers shows that it breaks out downward 71% of the time.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top of page More

See Also

 

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Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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