As of 08/11/2020
  Indus: 27,687 -104.53 -0.4%  
  Trans: 10,890 +24.59 +0.2%  
  Utils: 822 -19.04 -2.3%  
  Nasdaq: 10,783 -185.54 -1.7%  
  S&P 500: 3,334 -26.78 -0.8%  
YTD
-3.0%  
-0.1%  
-6.5%  
 +20.2%  
 +3.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/31/2020  
  Up arrow28,150 or 25,000 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow11,100 or 10,050 by 09/01/2020
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,200 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow3,500 or 3,250 by 09/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 6/29/20
As of 08/11/2020
  Indus: 27,687 -104.53 -0.4%  
  Trans: 10,890 +24.59 +0.2%  
  Utils: 822 -19.04 -2.3%  
  Nasdaq: 10,783 -185.54 -1.7%  
  S&P 500: 3,334 -26.78 -0.8%  
YTD
-3.0%  
-0.1%  
-6.5%  
 +20.2%  
 +3.2%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/31/2020  
  Up arrow28,150 or 25,000 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow11,100 or 10,050 by 09/01/2020
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,200 by 08/15/2020
  Up arrow3,500 or 3,250 by 09/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 6/29/20

Bulkowski's Market Longevity

 

This article discusses where the current bull market ranks with other bull markets in both duration and price movement. Last updated: 3/13/2015.

Market Longevity Methodology

How long does a typical bull market in the Dow industrials last? How far does price rise? To answer those questions, I told my computer to find every bull and bear market since late 1928 (when my data began).

I define a bull market as one in which price rises at least 20% as measured from low to high. A bear market is a drop of at least 20% from high to low.

I threw out all bull or bear markets shorter than three months. Why? To avoid flash crashes or similar behavior. There were some bounces that lasted a day or two but moved the market more than 20%.

Market Longevity Results

Bull/Bear Market Longevity
MetricResult
Bull Markets
Average length 3.0 years (1,091 days) 
Median length2.5 years (924 days)
Current* length6.0 years (2,097 days)
Average rise106%
Median rise74%
Current* rise177%
Bear Markets
Average length1 year (361 days)
Median length1.1 years (386 days)
Average decline35%
Median decline30%
* as of 3/13/2015

At the link is a spreadsheet that shows the results, not including dividends.

The current bull market began on March 6, 2009 and is longer than 91% of all bull markets as of 3/13/2015. That suggests the market is old, but it does not mean a bear market is imminent.

The above table shows the highlights from the spreadsheet.

The current bull market is 6 years long. That is longer than the average length (3 years) and it also beats the median length of 2.5 years.

The current bull market has climbed 177% during that time. This compares to an average bull market rise of 106% (a double) and a median rise of 74%.

The numbers suggest that for every step backward a stock takes (during a bear market), it takes three steps forward (an average drop of 35% versus an average rise of 106%, not including dividends.

That's good news for people that buy and hold.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top 

See Also

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.

My novels:  Bumper's Story Head's Law

Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition Trading Classic Chart Patterns

Copyright © 2005-2019 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.
Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.

Home Advertise Contact Donate Links Privacy/Disclaimer

Don't let people drive you crazy when you know it's in walking distance.Smiley