As of 04/18/2024   Indus: 37,775 +22.07 +0.1%     Trans: 14,947 -39.62 -0.3%     Utils: 860 +6.95 +0.8%     Nasdaq: 15,602 -81.87 -0.5%     S&P 500: 5,011 -11.09 -0.2%	YTD  +0.2%   -6.0%   -2.4%    +3.9%    +5.1%	Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024     39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/2024   16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024   885 or 850 by 05/01/2024   16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024   5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 4/1/24

As of 04/18/2024   Indus: 37,775 +22.07 +0.1%     Trans: 14,947 -39.62 -0.3%     Utils: 860 +6.95 +0.8%     Nasdaq: 15,602 -81.87 -0.5%     S&P 500: 5,011 -11.09 -0.2%	YTD  +0.2%   -6.0%   -2.4%    +3.9%    +5.1%
Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024     39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/2024   16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024   885 or 850 by 05/01/2024   16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024   5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 4/1/24

Bulkowski on How Long Bull Markets Last

This article discusses where the current bull market ranks with other bull markets in both duration and price movement. Last updated: 3/13/2015.

Market Longevity: Methodology

How long does a typical bull market in the Dow industrials last? How far does price rise? To answer those questions, I told my computer to find every bull and bear market since late 1928 (when my data began).

I define a bull market as one in which price rises at least 20% as measured from low to high. A bear market is a drop of at least 20% from high to low.

I threw out all bull or bear markets shorter than three months. Why? To avoid flash crashes or similar behavior. There were some bounces that lasted a day or two but moved the market more than 20%.

Market Longevity: Results

At the link is a spreadsheet that shows the results, not including dividends.

The current bull market began on March 6, 2009 and is longer than 91% of all bull markets as of 3/13/2015. That suggests the market is old, but it does not mean a bear market is imminent.

The above table shows the highlights from the spreadsheet.

The current bull market is 6 years long. That is longer than the average length (3 years) and it also beats the median length of 2.5 years.

The current bull market has climbed 177% during that time. This compares to an average bull market rise of 106% (a double) and a median rise of 74%.

The numbers suggest that for every step backward a stock takes (during a bear market), it takes three steps forward (an average drop of 35% versus an average rise of 106%, not including dividends.

That's good news for people that buy and hold.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

See Also

• Boosting retirement income.
• Bear Markets: How often do stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds drop 30% or more?
• Shows a 10-year forecast for the Dow.
• Market & stock trends. Buy in a downtrend, sell on the uptrend.
• Holidays. Does the market rise or fall before and after holidays? Answer: Fall.
• Best buy days. Which day of the week is the best one to buy or sell?
• Best buy months. Can buying at the end of the worst performing month and selling at the best performing be profitable?
• Seasonality. What are the best months to buy and sell stocks?

 

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