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Written and copyright © 2010-2011 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
This article discusses partial rises and declines, throwbacks and pullbacks. Do throwbacks and pullbacks occur more often after partial rises and declines? The research discussed below
says no.
Partial Rises and Declines
The two images on the right and left are almost self explanatory, but if you need more information, click on the link to
partial rises or partial declines.
Traders see these patterns after broadening tops and bottoms, rectangles (tops and bottoms), and even in
some triangles. When they occur, they predict the breakout direction. Partial rises predict an immediate downward breakout and a partial decline means an upward breakout.
Throwbacks and Pullbacks
These next pair of images (right and left) are of throwbacks and pullbacks. Throwbacks occur after an upward breakout and pullbacks happen
after a downward breakout. Just when you think price is going against you, it turns around and resumes the original breakout direction.
If you are a nimble trader, you can place
an order to enter a trade at the breakout price and exit within a few days before the pullback or throwback occurs, capturing the initial move before the reversal occurs. In all
chart patterns, throwbacks and pullbacks occur 53% and 56% of the time, respectively, based on research using over 10,000 chart patterns.
Throws and Pulls More Often?
The reason I bring up all of this is from an email I received several months ago. I don't remember who sent it, but thanks for the idea. He asked the question, does a throwback
or pullback occur more often after a partial decline or partial rise? The short answer is no.
I scanned all rectangles and broadening tops and bottoms and found 1,831 examples of those patterns. The following table lists how often the anomalies occur in the samples.
| Partial rise | 28% |
| Partial decline | 24% |
| Throwback | 24% |
| Pullback | 32% |
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When I add throwbacks and pullbacks without partial rises and declines, I get the following.
| Throwback and no partial rise | 26% |
| Throwback and no partial decline | 21% |
| Pullback and no partial rise | 13% |
| Pullback and no partial decline | 21% |
The percentages drop, just as you would expect since the test excludes patterns with partial rises and declines.
Finally, I add partial rises and declines into the picture to get the following.
| Throwback and partial rise | 5% |
| Throwback and partial decline | 11% |
| Pullback and partial rise | 10% |
| Pullback and partial decline | 3% |
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The table says that there are substantially fewer partial rises and declines that lead to throwbacks and pullbacks. So that's the answer. It's less likely that a throwback or
pullback will occur after a partial rise or decline.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
Written and copyright © 2010-2011 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. It's bad luck to be superstitious.
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