Bulkowski’s Black Spinning Top

Written and copyright © 2008-2009 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.

In my book, Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts, pictured on the right, I explore the entire range of candlestick patterns from abandoned babies to windows (not exactly A to Z, but you get the idea), in both bull and bear markets, using almost 5 million candle lines in the tests.

The book takes an in-depth look at 103 candlestick patterns and reports on behavior and rank (3 types: reversal rate, frequency, and overall performance), identification guidelines, performance statistics (tables of general statistics, height, and volume), trading tactics (tables of statistics on reversal rates and performance indicators), and wraps each chapter with a sample trade. I share a sliver of that information below. If you like what you read here, then you will love the book. Help support this website and buy a copy by clicking on the above link.

A black spinning top is a small candle with tall shadows. Candle theory says that it acts as with indecision. Testing reveals that it is a reversal 51% of the time. Thus, theory and reality agree. If you can call it good news, the black spinning top ranks 1 for frequency. That means it appears as often as weeds in a vacant lot. Performance ranks 73rd, or near the other end of the scale. The bottom line on this candle is it does not amount to much of anything.

Important Results

Theoretical performance: Indecision Tested performance: Reversal 51% of the time Frequency rank: 1 Overall performance rank: 73 Best percentage meeting price target: 83% (bull market, up breakout) Best average move in 10 days: -3.36% (bear market, down breakout) Best 10-day performance rank: 58 (bull market, up breakout) All ranks are out of 103 candlestick patterns with the top performer ranking 1. "Best" means the highest rated of the four combinations of bull/bear market, up/down breakouts.

Black Spinning Top

Discussion

As I mentioned in the introduction, the black spinning top works in theory as it does in reality: indecision. Price breaks out in any direction almost equally. With a frequency rank of 1, the candle is prolific, so you will see it often in a historical price series. The best move 10 days after a breakout occurs when price drops 3.36% in a bear market. However, the best performance rank is 58 after an upward breakout in a bull market. The difference between the downward move in a bear market and the best performing rank coming after an upward breakout in a bull market, is one of degree. The first is just the best average move that the black spinning top achieved. The rank is a comparison with other candle patterns.

Identification Guidelines

Three Trading Tidbits

If you want a few bones from my Encyclopedia of candlestick charts book, here are three to chew on. The pages refer to the book where the tips appear.

1. Black spinning top candles that appear within a third of the yearly low perform best -- page 696.
2. Black spinning top candles with shadows taller than the median outperform those shorter than the median -- page 697-698.
3. Volume gives performance clues -- page 698.

Example

The chart shows black and white spinning tops on the daily scale. The candle at A is a black spinning top because the body is black, small, and the candle has shadows taller than the body. This one occurs in a downward price trend, but the breakout is upward. Thus, it acts as a reversal. And a breakout occurs when price closes either above the top or below the bottom of the candlestick.

Candle B is a white spinning top that appears in an upward price trend. Notice the small white body and tall upper and lower shadows. Price breaks out upward from this spinning top two days later, meaning the spinner acted as a continuation of the up trend.

Candles C, D, and E are also black spinning tops. Candles C and E act as continuations of the downward price trend whereas candle D is a reversal. Price enters and exits the candle from the top.

-- Thomas Bulkowski