Subscribe to RSS feeds Bulkowski Blog via RSS

Thomas N. Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with almost 30 years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. His four books, including the best selling Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, have been translated into six languages. He may be reached at

Support this site! Clicking on his books below takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING, they pay for the referral.

Bulkowski’s Thrusting

Elliott
Wave
Funda-
mentals
Indicators Market
Review
Pattern
Rank
Psychology Quiz Research Software Test
Portfolios
Trading
Class
Trading
Setups
Tutorial Watch
List
ThePatternSite.com logo Candles Chart
Patterns
Event
Patterns
Scoring
Patterns
Volume
Patterns
ThePatternSite.com logo
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P 500 (^GSPC):
 
As of 07/29/2010
10,467.16 -30.72 -0.3%
4,415.02 -5.30 -0.1%
387.34 -5.78 -1.5%
2,251.69 -12.87 -0.6%
1,101.53 -4.60 -0.4%
 
YTD
0.4%
7.7%
-2.7%
-0.8%
-1.2%
 
Tom’s Targets
10,100 by 08/15/2010
4,200 by 08/15/2010
375 by 08/15/2010
2,100 by 08/15/2010
1,050 by 08/15/2010
Mkt Overview: 07/26/2010

CPI: on 07/07/2010

Written and copyright © 2008-2010 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.

In my book, Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts, pictured on the right, I explore the entire range of candlestick patterns from abandoned babies to windows (not exactly A to Z, but you get the idea), in both bull and bear markets, using almost 5 million candle lines in the tests.

The book takes an in-depth look at 103 candlestick patterns and reports on behavior and rank (3 types: reversal rate, frequency, and overall performance), identification guidelines, performance statistics (tables of general statistics, height, and volume), trading tactics (tables of statistics on reversal rates and performance indicators), and wraps each chapter with a sample trade. I share a sliver of that information below. If you like what you read here, then you will love the book. Help support this website and buy a copy by clicking on the above link.

The thrusting candle name is an unusual one, but one that makes sense. The thrusting candle begins with a downward price trend and a black candle appears. The next day a white candle opens below the prior low, but closes near the mid point of the prior body. The thrusting part is the white candle gapping open lower but soaring into the body of the black candle. It is not a complete piercing because the candle stops below the mid point of the black body.

The thrusting candle is supposed to act as a continuation of the downward price trend, but testing shows that it acts as a bullish reversal more often. Still, I consider the performance as near random since it is difficult to predict the breakout direction with any accuracy. The thrusting candle appears mid list in the frequency rankings (56th), so you should be able to find them in your neighborhood grocery store. The overall trend performance rank is quite good. In fact, the thrusting candle pattern works best in a bear market, but suffers in a bull market.

Important Results

Theoretical performance: Bearish continuation
Tested performance: Bullish reversal 57% of the time
Frequency rank: 56
Overall performance rank: 15
Best percentage meeting price target: 65% (bull market, up breakout)
Best average move in 10 days: -5.92% (bear market, down breakout)
Best 10-day performance rank: 20 (bear market, down breakout)

All ranks are out of 103 candlestick patterns with the top performer ranking 1. "Best" means the highest rated of the four combinations of bull/bear market, up/down breakouts.

The ideal thrusting candlestick
Thrusting

Discussion

The thrusting candle is supposed to act as a bearish continuation candle, but actually performs as a bullish reversal 57% of the time. That is what I call "near random." The overall performance rank is 15th out of 103 candles, which is very high up the list.

The best average move 10 days after the breakout is a drop of 5.92% in a bear market. That ranks 20th. I consider moves of 6% or more to be good, so this is close enough for government work, as they say.

Identification Guidelines

CharacteristicDiscussion
Number of candle linesTwo.
Price trend leading to the patternDownward.
ConfigurationLook for a black candle in a downward price trend followed by a white candle that opens below the prior low but closes near but below the midpoint of the black candle’s body.

Three Trading Tidbits

If you want a few bones from my Encyclopedia of candlestick charts book, here are three to chew on. The pages refer to the book where the tips appear.

  1. Thrusting candles that appear within a third of the yearly low perform best -- page 806.
  2. Select tall candles for the best performance -- page 807.
  3. Avoid trading the thrusting candle as part of a reversal of the primary downtrend -- page 808.

Example

The thrusting candlestick on the daily scale

The chart shows a thrusting candlestick pattern circled in red on the daily scale. Price trends downward leading to the candle pattern, but only for a few days unless you consider the longer view. Then a black candle shows followed by a white one. The white one opens below the closing black marubozu and closes near but below the midpoint of the black candle’s body.

This thrusting candle acts as a reversal of the downward price trend because price closes above the top of it. That upward price trend lasts all of a day before another reversal happens. The new reversal takes price lower, forming a sort of triple bottom before a longer-term reversal takes hold and price rises.

A head-and-shoulders bottom (bottoms 1, 2, and 3) is a better choice for this chart pattern

See Also

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

Copyright © 2008-2010 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. If you’re smoking in here, you better be on fire!