As of 12/13/2019
  Indus: 28,135 +3.33 +0.0%  
  Trans: 10,776 -13.65 -0.1%  
  Utils: 857 +7.17 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 8,735 +17.56 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 3,169 +0.23 +0.0%  
YTD
 +20.6%  
 +17.5%  
 +20.2%  
 +31.6%  
 +26.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/13/2019  
  Up arrow28,600 or 27,400 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,500 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow880 or 830 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow9,000 or 8,400 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow3,250 or 3,075 by 01/01/2020
As of 12/13/2019
  Indus: 28,135 +3.33 +0.0%  
  Trans: 10,776 -13.65 -0.1%  
  Utils: 857 +7.17 +0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 8,735 +17.56 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 3,169 +0.23 +0.0%  
YTD
 +20.6%  
 +17.5%  
 +20.2%  
 +31.6%  
 +26.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/13/2019  
  Up arrow28,600 or 27,400 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow11,300 or 10,500 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow880 or 830 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow9,000 or 8,400 by 01/01/2020
  Up arrow3,250 or 3,075 by 01/01/2020

Bulkowski's Rising Wedge

 

Statistics updated 6/3/2019.

For more information on this pattern, read Encyclopedia of Chart PatternsEncyclopedia of Chart Patterns book., pictured on the right.

If you click on the above link and then buy the book (or anything) while at Amazon.com, the referral will help support this site. Thanks.

-- Tom Bulkowski

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Rising wedges, especially for downward breakouts, are some of the worst performing chart patterns. Downward breakouts have unacceptably high failure rates and small post breakout declines. Also, throwbacks and pullbacks occur 72% of the time.

Rising wedge chart pattern
Rising Wedge Chart Pattern

 

Rising Wedge: Important Bull Market Results

Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): 29 out of 56/51 out of 53
Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 19%; 51%
Average rise/decline: 38%; 9%
Throwback/pullback rate: 72%, 72%
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 63%, 32%

The above numbers are based on hundreds of perfect trades. See the glossary for definitions.

Rising Wedge: Identification Guidelines

CharacteristicDiscussion
Price trendCan be any direction leading to the pattern.
ShapeA narrowing and rising triangle shape.
TrendlinesPrice bounces between two up-sloping and converging trendlines.
TouchesPrice should touch (at a minor high or minor low) each trendline at least five times to outline a good pattern. That's 3 touches of one trendline and 2 of the opposite.
Duration3 weeks is the minimum duration, otherwise it's a pennant.
Volume trendTrends downward 79% of the time until the breakout.
BreakoutCan be in any direction but is downward 60% of the time.
ConfirmationThe pattern confirms as a valid one when price closes outside one of the trendlines.

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Rising Wedge: Trading Tips

Trading TacticExplanation Rising wedge measure rule
The Measure Rule
Measure ruleFor downward breakouts, the lowest valley in the pattern (A) is the price target. Alternatively, compute the height from the highest peak (B) to the lowest valley (A) and then multiply it by the above 'percentage meeting price target.' Add it to (upward breakouts) or subtract it from (downward breakouts) the breakout price (the point at which price crosses the trendline, shown in the Measure Rule figure to the right as a blue line for this downward breakout) to get a price target (C).
BreakoutThe average distance to an upward breakout is 66% of the way to the triangle apex (where the trendlines join).
ConfirmationWait for a close outside one of the trendlines before taking a position.
Throwbacks and pullbacksThrowbacks and pullbacks hurt performance.
WeaknessUpward breakouts may show weakness two weeks after the breakout.
WidthWide patterns perform better than narrow ones (upward breakouts only).

Rising Wedge: Example

Rising wedge chart pattern example

The above figure shows an example of a rising wedge chart pattern. Each trendline has at least three distinct minor high or minor low touches, sandwiched between two converging trendlines. The upward breakout from this rising wedge is unusual because of its rarity. A throwback follows the breakout in this example.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Rising Wedge: Other Examples

See Also

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.

My novels:      New                  Bumper's Story Head's Law

Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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