As of 05/26/2020
  Indus: 24,995 +529.95 +2.2%  
  Trans: 8,896 +425.52 +5.0%  
  Utils: 769 +5.10 +0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 9,340 +15.63 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 2,992 +36.32 +1.2%  
YTD
-12.4%  
-18.4%  
-12.5%  
 +4.1%  
-7.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2020  
  Up arrow27,000 or 24,000 by 06/15/2020
  Up arrow9,800 or 8,200 by 06/15/2020
  Down arrow700 or 800 by 06/01/2020
  Up arrow9,800 or 9,000 by 06/15/2020
  Up arrow3,100 or 2,650 by 06/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 5/15/20
As of 05/26/2020
  Indus: 24,995 +529.95 +2.2%  
  Trans: 8,896 +425.52 +5.0%  
  Utils: 769 +5.10 +0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 9,340 +15.63 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 2,992 +36.32 +1.2%  
YTD
-12.4%  
-18.4%  
-12.5%  
 +4.1%  
-7.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2020  
  Up arrow27,000 or 24,000 by 06/15/2020
  Up arrow9,800 or 8,200 by 06/15/2020
  Down arrow700 or 800 by 06/01/2020
  Up arrow9,800 or 9,000 by 06/15/2020
  Up arrow3,100 or 2,650 by 06/01/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 5/15/20

Bulkowski's Predict Breakout Direction

 

My book, Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second EditionGetting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition book., pictured on the left, discusses partial rises and declines starting on page 207.

If you click on the above link and then buy the book (or anything) while at Amazon.com, the referral will help support this site. Thanks.

-- Tom Bulkowski

$ $ $

This article discusses how to predict the breakout direction from some chart patterns.

Picture of Apple computer (AAPL) on the daily scale.

With some chart patterns, determining the breakout direction is easier than with other chart patterns. Let's take a look at broadening tops.

The chart of Apple Computer (AAPL) shows a broadening top chart pattern. There are a number of identification guidelines that help with identification. They are:

  1. Price should trend up leading to the start of the pattern (if it trends downward, it's a broadening bottom).
  2. The shape of the pattern should resemble a megaphone with the smaller end toward the left, wider to the right.
  3. Price follows two diverging trendlines, one along the peaks and another along the valleys.
  4. Price should touch each trendline at least twice.
  5. Look for partial rises and declines.

The chart shows a partial decline. Once the broadening top has passed the identification guidelines (meaning only begin looking for a partial rise or decline after point 2 in this case, since bottoms 4, 5, and 6 were made earlier) then watch for price to drop from the top trendline but not make it down to the lower trendline. In broadening tops, these partial decline correctly predict an immediate upward breakout 72% of the time.

In this example, the breakout was not immediate as the partial decline predicted, even though it correctly signaled an upward breakout. It took another move down before price recovered and broke out upward.

You can review the links for more information on these pre-breakout features. You will find partial rises and declines helpful in all varieties of broadening patterns as well as rectangles and even triangles.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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See Also

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com. If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.

My novels:  Bumper's Story Head's Law

Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Second Edition Trading Basics Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading Swing and Day Trading Visual Guide to Chart Patterns Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd Edition Trading Classic Chart Patterns

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