Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 07/23/2024
  Indus: 40,358 -57.35 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,656 -244.42 -1.5%  
  Utils: 952 -5.51 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 17,997 -10.22 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,556 -8.67 -0.2%  
YTD
 +7.1%  
-1.5%  
 +8.0%  
 +19.9%  
 +16.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/12/2024  
  Up arrow41,500 or 40,000 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow16,500 or 15,600 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow1,000 or 910 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow19,200 or 17,800 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow5,750 or 5,500 by 08/01/2024
As of 07/23/2024
  Indus: 40,358 -57.35 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,656 -244.42 -1.5%  
  Utils: 952 -5.51 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 17,997 -10.22 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,556 -8.67 -0.2%  
YTD
 +7.1%  
-1.5%  
 +8.0%  
 +19.9%  
 +16.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/12/2024  
  Up arrow41,500 or 40,000 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow16,500 or 15,600 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow1,000 or 910 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow19,200 or 17,800 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow5,750 or 5,500 by 08/01/2024

May 2021 Headlines

Archives


Monday 5/31/2021. Feeding ThePatternSite.

Today is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

  2. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page. For a limited time and while supplies last, I'll throw in a free book to those with addresses in the US who donate $100 or more. See the donate page for details.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

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Friday 5/28/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 198 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, AMD, AES, AKAM, ALB, AEE, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, APOG, AMAT, ASH, AVA, BCPC, BLL, BSET, BAX, BKH, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BRC, BRKS, BBW, BG, CDNS, CPB, CE, CHKP, CHD, CLNE, CLF, CGNX, CL, CMCO, ED, CONN, CLR, COST, CREE, CRH, CCK, DECK, DVN, DFS, ^DJU, ^DJT, D, DRQ, DUK, EIX, EXC, FB, FICO, FLEX, FLS, FTNT, FWRD, FDP, GME, IT, GE, GNW, GILD, GL, GOOGL, GPRO, GES, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HL, HSII, HP, HNI, HOV, IEX, IDXX, NSP, INTC, IBKR, ISRG, NVTA, JAZZ, KELYA, KLAC, LRCX, LANC, LAWS, LNC, MTSI, MANH, MRO, MAS, MTRN, MDT, MU, NTGR, NEU, NEE, NXGN, NVDA, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, PKE, PDCO, PYPL, PFE, PNW, POR, PPL, PRU, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, CRM, SMG, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SWX, SR, SCS, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TDC, TER, TEVA, TXT, TJX, TOL, SLCA, UPS, UNM, WEX, WDAY, XLNX, ITA, IYM, IYE, ITB, IHE, IDU, QTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IAT, SOXX, EWA, EWC, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EPP, EWS, PPA, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, SSO, XLY, XLE, XLI, XLB, XAR, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 34 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 575 stocks searched, or 5.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 15 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 36 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
MMMTriangle, symmetrical      05/10/202105/26/2021Diversified Co.
ADTNRising wedge      05/07/202105/27/2021Telecom. Equipment
AFLTriangle, ascending      05/11/202105/26/2021Insurance (Diversified)
ALBTriangle, symmetrical      04/20/202105/21/2021Chemical (Diversified)
AMNTriangle, symmetrical      05/07/202105/27/2021Human Resources
AMATPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
AIZRectangle top      04/30/202105/27/2021Insurance (Diversified)
BIORectangle bottom      05/11/202105/27/2021Medical Supplies
BKNGPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021Internet
BRKSPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BBWFlag, high and tight      03/29/202105/27/2021Retail (Special Lines)
CBTTriangle, ascending      05/07/202105/26/2021Chemical (Diversified)
CXTriangle, descending      05/10/202105/27/2021Cement and Aggregates
CAGTriangle, symmetrical      03/30/202105/27/2021Food Processing
CREEPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021Semiconductor
DECKRectangle top      02/02/202105/27/2021Shoe
XRAYTriangle, symmetrical      05/06/202105/25/2021Medical Supplies
DDSFlag      05/19/202105/26/2021Retail Store
FBPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021E-Commerce
GMEFlag, high and tight      04/13/202105/27/2021Retail (Special Lines)
GISFalling wedge      05/06/202105/27/2021Food Processing
GPROPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021Electronics
GESDiamond top      04/22/202105/26/2021Apparel
THGDiamond top      05/05/202105/27/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HNIRising wedge      04/27/202105/27/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
IDXXTriangle, symmetrical      02/18/202105/27/2021Drug
INOVRoof, inverted      04/29/202105/26/2021Healthcare Information
IPARUgly double bottom      05/11/202105/24/2021Toiletries/Cosmetics
KLACPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LRCXPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LTriangle, symmetrical      05/10/202105/27/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
MTSIPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021Semiconductor
MGEEBroadening top, right-angled and descending      04/20/202105/24/2021Electric Utility (Central)
MLITriangle, symmetrical      05/12/202105/27/2021Metal Fabricating
NBRTriangle, symmetrical      05/10/202105/27/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NFGDiamond bottom      05/19/202105/27/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
NXGNRectangle bottom      03/25/202105/26/2021Healthcare Information
NVDAPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021Semiconductor
PYPLPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021Financial Services
PPGTriangle, ascending      04/30/202105/27/2021Chemical (Diversified)
PGTriangle, ascending      05/10/202105/26/2021Household Products
SRERoof      04/28/202105/27/2021Electric Utility (West)
TERPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TXTTriangle, symmetrical      05/10/202105/26/2021Diversified Co.
TRVTriangle, symmetrical      05/10/202105/27/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
UPSTriangle, descending      05/10/202105/26/2021Air Transport
XLNXPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
QTECPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021Electronics
MGKPipe bottom      05/10/202105/17/2021None

 

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Thursday 5/27/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.6% or 80.83 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 505 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 315 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 190 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 62.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 217/380 or 57.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The two red lines slope upward and hug price. A week ago, the index dropped below the bottom red line before recovering and forming a channel. I think both lines look a bit weird. They show a trend higher which follows an invisible ramp upward, but they don't resemble a channel in the traditional sense of the word.

At the top right of the chart I drew a blue line. It forms a ceiling which price is reluctant (so far) to pierce. So the index is bound on the top and on the bottom. One of the directions, or perhaps both, will have to give before we see a breakout. It's hard to tell what the final direction will be, but the above probabilities suggest an upward breakout.

Now that I think about it, the index is at the bottom trendline so it should bounce upward and push through the top blue line toward the top of the red channel.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 147 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, ADTN, AMD, APD, AKAM, AA, AMGN, APA, AMAT, ARCB, AWI, ARW, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AXS, BLL, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BKNG, BMY, BRKS, BBW, CDNS, CALM, CRL, CIEN, CGNX, CL, CMCO, CREE, CCK, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DVN, D, DRQ, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EPAM, RE, XOM, FB, FICO, FDP, GME, GE, GNW, GPRO, EVRG, GFF, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HQY, HOV, IDA, ITW, NSP, INTC, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, K, KELYA, KBAL, KLAC, LB, LRCX, LAWS, MTSI, MA, MU, MLHR, MCO, CNR, JWN, NVDA, OGE, OMCL, OMI, OXM, PKG, PAYX, PYPL, PETS, PFE, POR, QCOM, RMBS, REV, RLI, ROK, RCKY, RES, SCHW, SMTC, NOW, STMP, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TER, WEX, WDAY, XLNX, ITA, IYE, IEO, IHE, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, SOXX, EWH, EIS, EWY, EWD, PBE, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, ILF, SSO, XLE, USO, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,441.67    
 Weekly S2  12,931.25  489.58   
 Monthly S1  13,089.84  158.58   
 Weekly S1  13,334.63  244.79   
 Weekly Pivot  13,475.60  140.98   
 Monthly Pivot  13,650.70  175.10   
 Daily S2  13,652.01  1.31   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Low  13,679.59  27.58   
 Open  13,693.94  14.35   
 Daily S1  13,695.01  1.07   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,706.55  11.54   
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,714.88  8.33   
 Daily Pivot  13,722.58  7.71   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,723.20  0.62   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  13,738.00  14.80   
 High  13,750.16  12.16   
 Daily R1  13,765.58  15.42   
 Daily R2  13,793.15  27.58   
 Weekly R1  13,878.98  85.82   
 Weekly R2  14,019.95  140.98   
 Monthly R1  14,298.87  278.91   
 Monthly R2  14,859.73  560.87   

Wednesday 5/26/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The signal flop that I reported on a week ago and suggested that the signals might disappear, have, in fact, gone bye-bye. That leaves a bearish signal on the far right of the chart. That's the vertical red bar which signaled in early May.

A small double bottom (circled in orange/yellow/brown/whatever) appears near the end of its power to send prices higher. In other words, the index has almost reached its target of the height of the double bottom added to the peak between the two bottoms. What remains is for the index to drop. And that agrees with the bearish reading from the CPI.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 14% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 15%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 64% on 06/11/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 468 stocks in my database are down an average of 11% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 10%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 28% on 06/26/2020.

This is the first time I can recall where the direction of the red and blue lines have diverged. The red line shows improvement from a week ago but not the blue line.

That's a lot like asking directions from two people. One points west and the other points east. Can they both be right?

The blue line turned down near the start of May. The red line turned lower before that, probably by about a week. Both lines were higher then than they are now, so both are heading lower. Although, short-term, the red line inched up, it's still lower than before May. So the chart is really bearish.

The prior chart is bearish, too. So that isn't good news for the markets.

$ $ $

How far will a stock rise? Find out in this new article.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 226 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AMD, AES, AFL, AKAM, ADS, AYX, AIG, ABC, AMGN, AMN, APA, AMAT, ARW, ADP, AVY, AXS, BLL, BSET, BERY, BA, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BMY, BRKS, COG, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CE, CX, CNC, CF, CRL, CHKP, CHD, CIEN, CLNE, CGNX, CMCO, CMTL, ED, CR, CREE, CRH, CCK, CW, DECK, XRAY, DVN, D, DUK, EMN, EIX, EPAM, RE, EXC, FB, FIVN, FCX, FDP, FRD, GME, IT, GD, GIS, GNW, GS, GPRO, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HTLD, HNI, HON, HOV, IDA, INTC, IVC, NVTA, JCOM, JKHY, JAZZ, KBAL, KLAC, LB, LRCX, LAMR, LAWS, LLY, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MTSI, MA, MU, MS, MOS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, NFG, CNR, NCR, NTAP, NJR, NWPX, NUS, NVDA, OGE, OMCL, OXM, PKG, PKE, PAYX, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PNW, POR, PRU, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, RLI, RHI, ROK, ROG, RES, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SMTC, NOW, SR, STMP, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TER, TEVA, TSCO, VRSN, VRTX, WSO, WLK, WEX, WSM, WWW, WDAY, XEL, XLNX, IYM, IAI, IYE, DDM, QTEC, BOTZ, SOXX, IYF, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EPP, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, QLD, PPA, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, SSO, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLU, USO, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/25/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.5% or 186.14 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 943 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 510 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 433 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 225/396 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Alcon stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 94 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, AJRD, AKAM, AEO, AEP, ARCB, ARW, BZH, BBBY, BERY, BAH, BLDR, CALM, CENX, CLF, ED, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CTS, CMI, CW, DVN, D, DRQ, DUK, EVH, GPS, GD, GIS, GPN, EVRG, THG, HSC, HE, HQY, HELE, INFN, NSP, IIIN, INTU, IVC, NVTA, JAZZ, KALU, K, KMT, LAWS, LOW, LXU, MDCA, MS, NCR, NUS, OMI, PKE, PCG, PICO, PEG, QCOM, RCKY, TEVA, TKR, TJX, TSCO, UPS, VFC, VRSN, VRTX, XEL, IYE, FXI, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWS, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, PJP, ILF, XLE, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,702.02    
 Weekly S2  33,152.74  450.72   
 Monthly S1  33,548.00  395.26   
 Weekly S1  33,773.36  225.36   
 Weekly Pivot  34,094.42  321.06   
 Daily S2  34,154.81  60.39   
 Low  34,253.87  99.06   
 Open  34,253.87  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  34,274.40  20.53   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  34,319.78  45.38   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,337.39  17.61   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,363.19  25.80   
 Daily Pivot  34,373.45  10.26   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,388.99  15.54   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  34,393.98  4.99   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  34,472.51  78.53   
 Daily R1  34,493.04  20.52   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  34,592.09  99.06   
 Weekly R1  34,715.04  122.95   
 Weekly R2  35,036.10  321.06   
 Monthly R1  35,165.76  129.66   
 Monthly R2  35,937.54  771.78   

Monday 5/24/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

At the left of the chart is a broadening top pattern (B). You can't see the uptrend leading to the pattern, but it's there.

The broadening top broke out upward which it does 60% of the time in a bull market. That upward breakout started a trend which built a channel.

I show that channel by the two parallel red lines. But there's trouble brewing.

I circled the area of concern in green. Why is this area important? Because the index has pushed below the bottom of the channel.

In fact, I finished research recently which says that when a stock closes below a trendline, it's a sell signal. It works better than waiting for two closes (and a lower close and lower low) below the trendline.

Here, the index has closed below the trendline so it's a sell signal.

Maybe the index will rebound and re-enter the channel. Maybe a new channel will form at a less-steep slope. Or maybe the transports will tumble after a long uptrend. It's overdue for a retrace. We'll have to see what happens.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 54.34 points.
Tuesday: Down 267.13 points.
Wednesday: Down 164.62 points.
Thursday: Up 188.11 points.
Friday: Up 123.69 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 174.29 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 41.01 points or 0.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 17.99 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.5% down from the high of 35,091.56 on 05/10/2021.
     14.6% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     5.2% down from the high of 14,211.57 on 04/29/2021.
     8.7% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     1.9% down from the high of 4,238.04 on 05/07/2021.
     13.5% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,955  34,081  34,248  34,375  34,542 
Weekly  33,091  33,649  34,032  34,591  34,974 
Monthly  32,640  33,424  34,258  35,042  35,875 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,128  4,142  4,165  4,179  4,202 
Weekly  4,008  4,082  4,135  4,209  4,263 
Monthly  3,969  4,062  4,150  4,244  4,331 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,364  13,417  13,517  13,571  13,670 
Weekly  12,842  13,157  13,387  13,701  13,931 
Monthly  12,353  12,912  13,562  14,121  14,771 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 125 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AKAM, AMZN, AEO, ARCB, ACGL, AXS, BLL, BECN, BZH, BRC, BLDR, CBT, CDNS, CENX, CLF, CMTL, CROX, CSGS, CTS, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DRQ, FAST, FFG, FE, FORM, FCX, FRD, HSC, HQY, HL, DHI, HURC, ILMN, INFN, NSP, IBP, IIIN, IBKR, INTU, IVC, NVTA, JAZZ, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, KBH, KMT, KMB, KSS, LAMR, LANC, LAWS, LEG, LEN, RAMP, LOW, LXU, MTSI, MANH, MDC, MDCA, MS, MUR, CNR, NI, NOC, NVDA, OTEX, OMI, PCG, PLXS, PGR, RL, RCKY, CRM, SWX, SR, TFX, TPX, TDC, TXT, VFC, VRTX, XEL, IYE, ITB, FXI, ICF, EEM, EWG, EIS, EWM, EZA, EWP, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, PBE, PJP, PHO, IEV, XLY, XLE, XAR, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail (Special Lines)1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment3. Apparel
4. Securities Brokerage4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Petroleum (Integrated)5. Petroleum (Integrated)
6. Apparel6. Securities Brokerage
7. Homebuilding7. Furn/Home Furnishings
8. Advertising8. Homebuilding
9. Cement and Aggregates9. Cement and Aggregates
10. Furn/Home Furnishings10. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Computer Software and Svcs50. Medical Supplies
51. Telecom. Equipment51. Precision Instrument
52. Electric Utility (Central)52. Electric Utility (West)
53. Electric Utility (West)53. Chemical (Specialty)
54. Electric Utility (East)54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Healthcare Information55. E-Commerce
56. E-Commerce56. Electric Utility (East)
57. Chemical (Specialty)57. Healthcare Information
58. Household Products58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/21/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AEIS, AKAM, ALK, AA, ADS, AMZN, AEO, AEP, ABC, ARCB, ADM, AIZ, AVNT, BZH, BIG, BIO, BMRN, BKNG, BOOT, BRKS, BLDR, BG, CDNS, CAL, CENX, CF, CHKP, CLF, ED, COP, CREE, CROX, CCRN, CTS, DECK, DVN, ^DJT, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EBAY, EOG, EPAM, XOM, FICO, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FTNT, FWRD, GPS, GOOGL, GES, HSC, HE, HQY, HTLD, HP, HOLX, JBHT, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, INTU, IVC, JBLU, KALU, KMT, KLAC, KSS, LRCX, LAWS, LNC, LOW, LXU, MTSI, MRTN, MTRX, MS, MOS, MUR, NOV, OXY, OMI, PKG, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, PICO, PLXS, PFG, PG, QCOM, RL, RCKY, RES, SLB, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SXI, SNPS, TPR, TFX, TER, TXN, TMO, TKR, TJX, RIG, SLCA, VLO, VMI, VMC, WU, WLK, WSM, WWW, XEL, IYM, IYE, IEZ, FDN, FXI, IYH, SOXX, EWG, EIS, EWL, PXJ, PJP, XLE, XRT, UNG, USO, SMH, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 26 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 576 stocks searched, or 4.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (13) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDPipe bottom      05/03/202105/10/2021Electronics
ADBEDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      05/11/202105/19/2021Computer Software and Svcs
ALBTriangle, symmetrical      04/20/202105/20/2021Chemical (Diversified)
ADSDiamond top      04/30/202105/20/2021Information Services
BBBYTriangle, descending      04/15/202105/20/2021Retail (Special Lines)
BKNGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/13/202105/19/2021Internet
BLDRPipe top      05/03/202105/10/2021Retail Building Supply
CNPBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      04/15/202105/20/2021Electric Utility (Central)
CENXPipe top      05/03/202105/10/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
CMIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/10/202105/17/2021Machinery
DECKRectangle top      02/02/202105/20/2021Shoe
DVNCup with handle      03/05/202105/20/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
FFIVHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/04/202105/19/2021Internet
HSCCup with handle      02/24/202105/20/2021Diversified Co.
HQYPipe bottom      05/03/202105/10/2021Healthcare Information
INTUPipe bottom      05/03/202105/10/2021Computer Software and Svcs
KLACDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202105/19/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LAWSCup with handle      03/12/202105/20/2021Metal Fabricating
LOWPipe top      05/03/202105/10/2021Retail Building Supply
MANRectangle top      04/28/202105/18/2021Human Resources
NFLXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/11/202105/19/2021Internet
PYPLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/11/202105/19/2021Financial Services
PEGHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/05/202105/19/2021Electric Utility (East)
RLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/10/202105/18/2021Apparel
TGTBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      04/06/202105/20/2021Retail Store
TERDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202105/19/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TJXHead-and-shoulders top      05/03/202105/14/2021Retail Store
WDAYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/13/202105/19/2021Computer Software and Svcs
QTECDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      05/11/202105/19/2021Electronics

 

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Thursday 5/20/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by 0.0% or -3.9 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 681 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 387 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 294 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 216/379 or 57.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The composite formed a double bottom at A. It confirmed when the index closed above the peak between the two bottoms. After that, it formed a double top at BC.

When the index closed below the blue line, it confirmed the double top as a valid chart pattern. The double top saw price gap down during the open. It confirmed the double top. If you hadn't shorted the index before it gapped open, you'd have a lost money as the index recovered.

The height of the pattern from C to the blue line is used as part of the measure rule. Subtract that height from the price of the blue line and you'd get a target. It looks like the index reached the target or came awfully close.

The blue line also highlights overhead resistance. The index is struggling to push above and remain above the blue line. Maybe we'll see it continue rising in the coming days.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 258 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ACN, ACIW, AYI, AEIS, AMD, ATSG, ALK, ALL, AYX, AMZN, AMED, AEE, AEO, AEL, AMWD, AMN, APOG, ARCB, AWI, ASH, ADP, AVY, AXS, BLL, BAX, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BIG, BKH, BA, BOOT, BAH, BLDR, BG, CENX, CTXS, CLNE, CGNX, CL, GLW, CR, CROX, CTS, DHR, DVN, DFS, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EMR, EFX, FICO, FAST, FIS, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FORM, FWRD, GPS, GD, GPN, GS, GGG, HBI, THG, HSC, HQY, HTLD, HELE, HD, HON, DHI, HUBG, IEX, ITW, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IBKR, INTU, IVC, KALU, KBH, KMT, LZB, LAMR, LAWS, LEG, LLY, LMT, LOW, MHO, MTSI, MANH, MAN, MAS, MA, MTRX, MDC, MS, MLI, MUR, NFG, NWL, NEU, NKE, NI, NWPX, ORI, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OUT, OMI, PKE, PATK, PAYX, PETS, PFE, PCG, PLXS, POR, PPG, PEG, RGS, RGA, REV, RLI, RHI, ROK, RCKY, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, SMG, SHW, SKX, SO, SWX, SCS, SUM, TPR, TPX, TJX, TSCO, TG, TREX, SLCA, VMI, VRTX, V, VC, VMC, WSO, WLK, WWW, XLNX, ITA, IYK, IYC, IYE, ITB, DDM, QTEC, ICF, IYZ, IGV, IYF, EWA, EWQ, EIS, EWL, PPA, PBE, PHO, IXN, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLE, GLD, XHB, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,295.59    
 Weekly S2  12,644.68  349.09   
 Monthly S1  12,797.66  152.98   
 Weekly S1  12,972.21  174.55   
 Daily S2  12,993.15  20.94   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  13,072.23  79.08   
 Open  13,078.19  5.96   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  13,146.44  68.25   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,161.00  14.56   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,188.42  27.42   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,215.84  27.42   
 Daily Pivot  13,225.53  9.69   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  13,299.74  74.21   
 High  13,304.61  4.87   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  13,330.07  25.46   
 Daily R1  13,378.82  48.75   
 Daily R2  13,457.91  79.08   
 Monthly Pivot  13,504.62  46.71   
 Weekly R1  13,657.60  152.98   
 Monthly R1  14,006.69  349.09   
 Weekly R2  14,015.46  8.77   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  14,713.65  698.19   

Wednesday 5/19/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has been volatile this past week. It turned bearish then bullish and now it's bearish again. That most recent signal can change for up to a week, so don't put much weight on it.

If the index continues to fall (like a steep sell-off), both the red signal on the far right and the prior green one might disappear, leaving the first May red bar in place.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 15% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 14%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 67% on 05/19/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 468 stocks in my database are down an average of 10% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 10%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 31% on 05/19/2020.

Only the red line shows a deteriorating situation compared to a week ago. It's the more sensitive of the two indicator lines.

Back in early May, the red line diverged from the index (red line went down while the index climbed). They are now convergent...and heading lower.

So this chart is bearish joining the prior one. That tells me the index is going lower over the next week, but I've been wrong before. Keep that in mind.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 163 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACIW, AEIS, AES, ALK, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AEO, AEL, AMWD, APH, AON, AMAT, ARCB, AWI, ARW, ASH, ADP, AVY, AVA, BLL, BAX, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BIG, BOOT, BRC, BLDR, CENX, CMCO, GLW, CROX, CCRN, XRAY, DVN, DFS, D, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EXPD, FB, FLS, GPS, IT, GD, GS, GOOGL, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HL, HUBG, INFN, IIIN, INTC, INTU, IVC, JBLU, JNJ, LRCX, LAMR, LAWS, LLY, LMT, LOW, MAN, MU, MS, MLI, MUR, CNR, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NKE, NI, NVDA, ORI, OLN, ASGN, OMI, PATK, PAYX, PRFT, PETS, PFE, PCG, PICO, PPG, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, REV, RHI, RCKY, RES, SAIC, SWX, SR, SUM, TPR, TGT, TEVA, TXT, TKR, TJX, TZOO, TG, UGI, UPS, VMI, VRTX, V, VMC, WMT, WAT, WLK, WWW, WDAY, IYE, IDU, DDM, FXI, SOXX, IYF, EWO, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWW, EWP, EWD, EWL, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLE, GLD, XLB, SPY, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/18/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.2% or -54.34 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1217 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 614 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 603 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 225/395 or 57.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Alcon: ACL.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 87 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, APD, AKAM, ALKS, AMWD, AMGN, ACGL, AGO, BAX, BERY, BMY, CNC, CSCO, CMCO, CCRN, CTS, DVN, DDS, EQT, EVH, FB, FDS, FISV, FIVN, GME, GILD, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HL, HELE, HOLX, JBLU, JNJ, KELYA, LAWS, LLY, LXU, MRK, MS, MUR, PRFT, PICO, PNW, PLXS, PPL, PINC, PEG, RNG, ROK, SWX, SR, SXI, TGT, TMO, TSCO, IYE, IHI, IEO, IEZ, IHE, IDU, IYZ, SLV, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWG, EWW, THD, TUR, PJP, IXC, XLP, XLE, GLD, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,776.01    
 Weekly S2  32,788.52  12.50   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S2.
 Monthly S1  33,551.90  763.38   
 Weekly S1  33,558.15  6.25   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Daily S2  34,088.90  530.75   
 Low  34,176.65  87.75   
 Daily S1  34,208.35  31.70   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,255.80  47.45   
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,280.25  24.45   
 Daily Pivot  34,296.09  15.85   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,304.70  8.60   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot  34,321.73  17.04   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  34,324.86  3.13   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Close  34,327.79  2.93   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  34,375.29  47.50   
 High  34,383.84  8.55   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  34,415.54  31.70   
 Daily R2  34,503.29  87.75   
 Weekly R1  35,094.49  591.21   
 Monthly R1  35,097.62  3.13   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  35,861.20  763.57   
 Monthly R2  35,867.45  6.25   Yes! The Monthly R2 is close to the Weekly R2.

Monday 5/17/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

The pattern in blue is a common one. Do you know its name? It's a descending scallop. Those breakout downward 78% of the time, according to near research from my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition.

That's what happened here when the pattern closed below the bottom of it in late February.

Shown highlighted in red is a flag. It's large but compared to the move up from A to B, the slide to C looks proportional. Even though flags are often short patterns, hanging on a flagpole, this one is probably fine. Flags in a bull market breakout upward 60% of the time (the statistics was taken from the same book).

There's no guarantee that this one will breakout upward, too, but that's the way to bet. I'd look to the left (off this chart) to see what the prior price action shows to determine support/resistance levels. That's important when trying to gauge how far price might move and to determine the breakout direction. I didn't do that in this case, so I'm using only the 60% breakout number to go on.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 34.94 points.
Tuesday: Down 473.66 points.
Wednesday: Down 681.5 points.
Thursday: Up 433.79 points.
Friday: Up 360.68 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 395.63 points or 1.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 352.26 points or 2.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 58.75 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.0% down from the high of 35,091.56 on 05/10/2021.
     15.2% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     5.5% down from the high of 14,211.57 on 04/29/2021.
     8.3% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     1.5% down from the high of 4,238.04 on 05/07/2021.
     14.0% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,892  34,137  34,296  34,541  34,699 
Weekly  32,807  33,594  34,343  35,131  35,879 
Monthly  32,794  33,588  34,340  35,134  35,886 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,109  4,141  4,162  4,195  4,216 
Weekly  3,976  4,075  4,156  4,255  4,335 
Monthly  3,975  4,074  4,156  4,256  4,337 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,160  13,295  13,378  13,513  13,596 
Weekly  12,688  13,059  13,373  13,744  14,059 
Monthly  12,339  12,884  13,548  14,094  14,757 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 113 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADTN, APD, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, AA, AEL, AMGN, APA, ACGL, AWI, AGO, AXS, BERY, BOOT, CNC, CNP, CVX, CHS, CINF, CLX, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CL, CSGS, CW, DDS, ^DJI, RE, EVH, EXC, XOM, FB, FIVN, FLS, FCX, IT, GILD, GL, THG, HSC, HE, HQY, HTLD, HL, HSIC, HNI, HUBG, INCY, IVC, NVTA, JNJ, LB, LHX, LANC, LAWS, LLY, LNC, L, M, MRO, MRTN, MRK, MS, MUR, NOV, JWN, NOC, NVDA, OXY, OGE, ORI, OXM, PANW, PKE, PLXS, PRU, DGX, ^GSPC, SEIC, SIGI, SKX, SXI, SRDX, TDC, TRV, TG, WMB, IYM, IAI, IYE, IEO, FXI, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWG, EWP, EWU, DBA, PJP, IXC, XLP, XLE, XLB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Apparel3. Apparel
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Petroleum (Integrated)
5. Petroleum (Integrated)5. Retail (Special Lines)
6. Securities Brokerage6. Securities Brokerage
7. Furn/Home Furnishings7. Furn/Home Furnishings
8. Homebuilding8. Advertising
9. Cement and Aggregates9. Homebuilding
10. Trucking/Transp. Leasing10. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Medical Supplies50. Electric Utility (West)
51. Precision Instrument51. Chemical (Specialty)
52. Electric Utility (West)52. Precision Instrument
53. Chemical (Specialty)53. Computer Software and Svcs
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. E-Commerce55. Electric Utility (East)
56. Electric Utility (East)56. Healthcare Information
57. Healthcare Information57. Household Products
58. Household Products58. E-Commerce
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/14/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AJRD, APD, ALKS, ALL, DOX, AMED, AEO, AFG, ABC, AMGN, AMAT, ADM, AWI, ARW, AIZ, AGO, AXS, BMI, BAX, BZH, BKH, BA, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BRC, BRKS, CACI, CNC, CNP, CHD, CNA, CAG, CSGS, DDS, ^DJT, D, DOV, BOOM, EIX, EPAM, RE, EVH, EXC, FB, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, GME, GIS, GL, THG, HLIT, HSC, HTLD, HSY, HNI, IDA, ILMN, NSP, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, IBKR, IPG, JBLU, K, KSS, LZB, LRCX, LAWS, MTRN, MRK, MGEE, MS, MOS, MUR, NOV, CNR, NTAP, NEU, NI, OXM, PATK, PLXS, PPL, PGR, PEG, RJF, RGS, SAIA, SLGN, LUV, SWX, SXI, TXN, TOL, TSCO, UGI, VEEV, IAI, IYE, IEO, IHE, FTEC, FXI, IYZ, SOXX, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWL, PHO, IXC, XLE, XHB, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 27 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 4.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 9 bearish ones with any remaining (13) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AEODouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/23/202105/10/2021Apparel
AGOPipe top      04/26/202105/03/2021Insurance (Life)
ATOTriple top      04/21/202105/10/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
BAXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      04/22/202105/07/2021Medical Supplies
CVXCup with handle      03/12/202105/13/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
CINFScallop, ascending      03/15/202105/10/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CAGTriangle, symmetrical      03/30/202105/13/2021Food Processing
DECKRectangle top      02/02/202105/13/2021Shoe
^DJUDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/03/202105/10/2021None
EVHPipe top      04/26/202105/03/2021Healthcare Information
XOMCup with handle      03/11/202105/13/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
FIVNPipe top      04/26/202105/03/2021Computer Software and Svcs
GPSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/03/202105/10/2021Apparel
GSScallop, ascending      03/18/202105/10/2021Securities Brokerage
GESBroadening top      04/22/202105/12/2021Apparel
HONDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/16/202105/10/2021Aerospace/Defense
JBLUTriangle, symmetrical      03/25/202105/10/2021Air Transport
KSSTriangle, symmetrical      03/15/202105/10/2021Retail Store
MTRNCup with handle      03/10/202105/12/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
MDCBroadening top      04/05/202105/12/2021Homebuilding
MSCup with handle      03/18/202105/13/2021Securities Brokerage
NXGNRectangle bottom      03/25/202105/10/2021Healthcare Information
OTEXHead-and-shoulders top      03/22/202105/10/2021E-Commerce
SIGIHead-and-shoulders top      04/15/202105/10/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
VCDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/29/202105/07/2021Electronics
VMCDiamond top      05/05/202105/13/2021Cement and Aggregates
WRBDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/26/202105/10/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

 

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Thursday 5/13/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -2.7% or -357.75 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 25 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.9% on 14 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.5% on 11 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 215/378 or 56.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Notice how the slope of trendline B is steeper than trendline A. That means momentum is increasing as price drops. Of course, those with a copy of my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition, will see in the text that the speed of downward moves is often at least twice as fast as upward moves. So the big, fast drops are no surprise.

The good news is that I believe this drop will end soon. People (traders) will settle down and realize the world isn't ending as we know it. Inflation will calm down and the pandemic will fade, perhaps turning into a chronic condition, requiring a booster shot annually.

Having said that, the bottom may be in September. Look at screen 2 through 4 here.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 215 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, ADS, DOX, AEE, AEO, AEL, AXP, AFG, AMWD, AMGN, APH, ASH, AGO, AVY, AVNT, AXS, BLL, BAX, BZH, BBBY, BERY, BIG, BKH, BA, BAH, BRC, BLDR, CALM, CNC, CNP, CIEN, CINF, CSCO, CLX, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CL, CAG, CLR, GLW, COST, CR, CW, DFS, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DOV, DTE, BOOM, EIX, EQT, EL, RE, EVH, EXC, XOM, FB, FE, FISV, FIVN, FLS, FWRD, GPS, IT, GD, GE, GIS, GNW, GL, GGG, EVRG, GFF, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HTLD, HELE, HNI, HD, IDA, IEX, ITW, NSP, IIIN, INTC, IBKR, TILE, JNJ, KBH, K, KELYA, KBAL, KMB, KSS, LB, LHX, LH, LAMR, LEG, LEN, LLY, LXU, MHO, MLM, MAS, MDC, MDT, MRK, MGEE, MCO, MS, MLI, MUR, NOV, CNR, NTAP, NJR, NI, JWN, NWPX, ORI, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, OMI, PKG, PATK, PAYX, PCG, PPL, PINC, PFG, PGR, PEG, RL, RLI, ROK, ROST, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SHW, SKX, LUV, SWX, SWN, TGT, TPX, TXT, TKR, TJX, TOL, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TREX, VFC, VMC, WMT, WMB, WWW, IAI, IYE, ITB, IHI, IEO, IDU, DDM, ICF, IHF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EWY, EWT, THD, IXC, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLU, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,788.70    
 Daily S2  12,821.54  32.84   
 Weekly S2  12,901.67  80.13   
 Monthly S1  12,910.19  8.52   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Daily S1  12,926.61  16.42   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Weekly S1  12,966.67  40.06   
 Low  13,002.54  35.87   
 Close  13,031.68  29.14   
 Daily Pivot  13,107.61  75.93   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,111.82  4.21   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,145.58  33.76   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,179.33  33.76   
 Daily R1  13,212.68  33.35   
 Open  13,215.49  2.81   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  13,288.61  73.12   
 Daily R2  13,393.68  105.07   
 Weekly Pivot  13,504.40  110.72   
 Monthly Pivot  13,560.88  56.48   
 Weekly R1  13,569.40  8.52   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Monthly R1  13,682.37  112.97   
 Weekly R2  14,107.13  424.76   
 Monthly R2  14,333.06  225.93   

Wednesday 5/12/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bearish two days ago, right in time to see the index tumble. This wasn't a case of the signal changing and back-dating itself (when a large drop today causes NR7s waiting for breakout to turn bearish, thereby creating a bearish signal days earlier). I watched the bearish signal appear yesterday before my very eyes.

Anyway, it's bearish today (Tuesday) but it might not be tomorrow or within the next 7 days. It can change up till then.

There's also bearish divergence which I show with the brown/yellow lines, and one I've remarked on the last few weeks.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 14% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 13%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 73% on 05/13/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 10% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 9%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 34% on 05/13/2020.

The red indicator line also shows bearish divergence on this chart, but notice how the red line turned down days ago (A, the start of which is the magenta line). At B, the index peaked but the red line remained significantly lower.

The above numbers says that both lines are lower today than they were a week ago.

Both charts are bearish, so maybe this downturn has legs. I don't know if that's true or not, so we'll have to wait and see.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 169 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, AEIS, APD, ATSG, ALK, ALKS, DOX, AEE, AEP, AEL, AMGN, ANIK, AON, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, AIZ, AGO, AXS, BSET, BIO, BA, BMY, BBW, CNC, CHD, CIEN, CLX, CTSH, CL, CMTL, CAG, CONN, GLW, COST, CTS, CW, DDS, D, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EL, RE, EVH, XOM, FB, FOE, FIS, FEYE, FISV, FIVN, FLIR, GIS, GNW, GOOGL, GGG, EVRG, GFF, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HSII, HELE, HNI, IDA, INCY, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, IBKR, JCOM, JBLU, JNJ, K, KMT, KFRC, KMB, KLAC, LH, LAWS, LLY, MAN, MCHX, MTRN, MDCA, MDT, MRK, MU, MSFT, MS, MLI, MYGN, NOV, NTGR, NEE, NXGN, NUS, OLN, OTEX, OUT, PANW, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PPL, PINC, PGR, KWR, RLI, RCKY, SMG, LUV, SWX, SWN, SXI, SUM, TPX, TRV, TG, VFC, WMT, WWW, IYK, IYC, IYE, IHI, IEO, FXI, BOTZ, IGV, EWZ, EWT, IXC, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLP, XLE, XRT, SPY, XLK, USO, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/11/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Stop Placement in Abgenix

The index dropped by -0.1% or -34.94 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1354 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 706 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 648 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 225/394 or 57.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Abgenix: ABGX. This discusses stop placement.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 201 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ANF, AYI, AJRD, AKAM, AA, ALL, AMZN, AEO, AXP, AIG, APH, ANTM, APA, AMAT, ATR, AIZ, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, AXS, BCPC, BLL, BSET, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, COG, CAL, CPB, CRL, CVX, CINF, CNO, CMTL, CONN, GLW, COST, CR, CREE, CMI, CW, DDS, DFS, DRQ, EXP, EMR, EOG, EQT, EL, EXC, XOM, FOE, GME, GE, GNW, GGG, GFF, HSC, HAYN, HL, HSIC, HNI, JBHT, INCY, INOV, IIIN, INTC, IBKR, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, JNJ, KMT, KFRC, KSS, LZB, LH, LAWS, LLY, MANH, MCHX, MDCA, MLHR, MS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NOV, CNR, NCR, NFLX, NTGR, NXGN, NOC, NVDA, OUT, PKG, PKE, PATK, PTEN, PCG, PLXS, PPL, PINC, PFG, PGR, KWR, DGX, RMBS, REV, RLI, RCKY, RES, SAIA, SAIC, SEIC, SIGI, SRE, SHW, SLGN, SCCO, SWN, STMP, SSYS, SUM, TFX, TDC, TXN, TKR, RIG, TG, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VFC, VEEV, VRTX, VC, WSO, WERN, WMB, WSM, WWW, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DDM, FXI, IYZ, EWA, EWO, EWH, EIS, EZA, IBB, PPA, DBA, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLE, GLD, XRT, SPY, XAR, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,669.85    
 Weekly S2  33,394.25  724.40   
 Monthly S1  33,706.34  312.08   
 Weekly S1  34,068.54  362.20   
 Monthly Pivot  34,258.86  190.33   
 Weekly Pivot  34,439.96  181.10   
 Daily S2  34,508.66  68.70   
 Daily S1  34,625.74  117.08   
 Low  34,741.57  115.83   
 Close  34,742.82  1.25   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Open  34,785.27  42.45   
 Daily Pivot  34,858.65  73.38   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,875.27  16.62   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,916.57  41.30   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,957.86  41.30   
 Daily R1  34,975.73  17.87   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  35,091.56  115.83   
 Weekly R1  35,114.25  22.69   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  35,208.64  94.39   
 Monthly R1  35,295.35  86.71   
 Weekly R2  35,485.67  190.32   
 Monthly R2  35,847.88  362.20   

Monday 5/10/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the SP 500 on the daily scale.

An ascending broadening wedge appears highlighted in red on this chart. After the last bottom trendline touch, the index tried to reach the top trendline (A) but failed.

That attempt was called a partial rise. The index should have broken out downward (closed below the bottom red trendline) on the next approach to the bottom trendline. It dropped only to B, hence the failure.

The blue pattern, which looks black to me, is also an ascending broadening wedge. This one has only 4 touches instead of the required 5, so it's suspect (the red pattern has 6 touches).

If the blue pattern behaves like it's supposed to, look for it to breakout downward 52% of the time (which is about random, so don't count on it).

$ $ $

I received my second COVID-19 shot on Friday. Yippee! It's nice not to worry about whether I forgot to sanitize my hands or lingered too long in the company of others. If you haven't received your vaccination, it's safe. Over 140 million Americans received their shots. Isn't it about time you did, too?

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 238.38 points.
Tuesday: Up 19.8 points.
Wednesday: Up 97.31 points.
Thursday: Up 318.19 points.
Friday: Up 229.23 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 902.91 points or 2.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 180.44 points or 1.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 51.43 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 34,811.39 on 05/07/2021.
     16.5% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     3.0% down from the high of 14,211.57 on 04/29/2021.
     11.2% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 4,238.04 on 05/07/2021.
     15.6% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,337  34,558  34,684  34,905  35,032 
Weekly  33,406  34,092  34,452  35,138  35,497 
Monthly  32,682  33,730  34,271  35,319  35,860 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,188  4,210  4,224  4,247  4,260 
Weekly  4,090  4,161  4,200  4,271  4,309 
Monthly  3,965  4,099  4,168  4,302  4,372 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,629  13,706  13,767  13,844  13,905 
Weekly  13,152  13,467  13,755  14,070  14,357 
Monthly  13,039  13,411  13,811  14,183  14,583 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 162 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AA, ADS, AEO, AEL, AIG, AMGN, ANIK, ANTM, AAPL, ACGL, ADP, AVNT, AXS, BCPC, BZH, BIG, BMRN, BRC, BG, COG, CALM, CF, CLX, CNO, CTSH, CMCO, CLR, CR, CRH, CW, DHR, DDS, DRQ, EQT, EXC, XOM, FOE, FLEX, FLIR, FWRD, GOOGL, GES, HBI, HSC, HAYN, HTLD, HL, HSIC, HNI, HOV, INCY, NSP, INTC, TILE, JNJ, KFRC, KLAC, LHX, LH, LRCX, LLY, LMT, MHO, MRO, MLM, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MRK, MSFT, MLHR, MS, NOV, CNR, NKE, NI, NVDA, OXY, PKE, PTEN, PETS, PICO, PGR, KWR, DGX, RGS, RNG, RLI, ROK, ROST, RES, SKX, SCCO, SWN, SXI, TPR, TPX, TDC, TER, TXN, TMO, RIG, TG, TREX, UGI, UPS, VFC, WERN, WMB, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IHE, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, SOXX, EWA, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, PXJ, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, XLE, GLD, XLV, XHB, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Apparel3. Retail (Special Lines)
4. Petroleum (Integrated)4. Apparel
5. Retail (Special Lines)5. Petroleum (Integrated)
6. Securities Brokerage6. Securities Brokerage
7. Furn/Home Furnishings7. Advertising
8. Advertising8. Homebuilding
9. Homebuilding9. Furn/Home Furnishings
10. Trucking/Transp. Leasing10. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (West)50. Chemical (Specialty)
51. Chemical (Specialty)51. Food Processing
52. Precision Instrument52. Electric Utility (West)
53. Computer Software and Svcs53. Precision Instrument
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Healthcare Information
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Electric Utility (Central)
56. Healthcare Information56. E-Commerce
57. Household Products57. Electric Utility (East)
58. E-Commerce58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/7/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 127 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, AEIS, ALK, AA, AEO, AEL, AFG, AIG, ANTM, ATR, ADP, AVNT, AVA, AXS, BLL, BAX, BBBY, BBY, BKNG, BOOT, COG, CALM, CPB, CLS, CENX, CHS, CNO, CTSH, CMTL, CSOD, CCRN, DDS, DRQ, BOOM, EZPW, FB, FOE, FIVN, FLIR, FLS, GIS, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HAYN, HL, HSIC, HOV, HUBG, IDXX, ILMN, IBKR, JNJ, KLIC, RAMP, MTSI, M, MCHX, MRTN, MDC, MDCA, MLHR, MS, MYGN, NFLX, NTGR, NJR, NXGN, NI, NWPX, NVDA, OTEX, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, PPL, KWR, DGX, RGS, RGA, RNG, RLI, RES, SEIC, LUV, SSYS, TPX, TOL, TZOO, TREX, UNM, VEEV, WMT, IEZ, FXL, ICF, IHF, SLV, EWK, EWZ, EWQ, EWH, EZA, TUR, PBE, PXJ, ILF, MXI, GLD, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 3.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 5 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ALKTriangle, symmetrical      03/25/202105/06/2021Air Transport
AEPTriangle, symmetrical      04/13/202105/06/2021Electric Utility (Central)
AELRectangle top      04/08/202105/04/2021Insurance (Life)
BIIBHead-and-shoulders bottom      04/13/202104/30/2021Biotechnology
BKNGBroadening top      04/06/202105/06/2021Internet
CLFHead-and-shoulders bottom      04/08/202104/30/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
COPHead-and-shoulders bottom      04/13/202104/30/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
DDSPipe bottom      04/19/202104/26/2021Retail Store
DRQPipe bottom      04/19/202104/26/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
EMNScallop, ascending      03/11/202105/06/2021Chemical (Diversified)
HAYNPipe bottom      04/19/202104/26/2021Building Materials
ITWScallop, ascending      03/29/202105/06/2021Metal Fabricating
KBHRoof, inverted      04/06/202105/06/2021Homebuilding
KBALDouble Top, Eve and Adam      03/18/202104/30/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
MLHRPipe bottom      04/19/202104/26/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
MYGNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/28/202105/04/2021Biotechnology
PKETriangle, symmetrical      03/29/202105/06/2021Chemical (Specialty)
PTENPipe bottom      04/19/202104/26/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PEGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/21/202105/03/2021Electric Utility (East)
RGSDead-cat bounce      05/06/202105/06/2021Toiletries/Cosmetics
RGATriangle, ascending      03/15/202105/06/2021Insurance (Life)
REVRectangle bottom      02/02/202105/06/2021Toiletries/Cosmetics
SAICScallop, ascending      04/20/202105/03/2021IT Services
SMGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/20/202105/04/2021Chemical (Basic)
WMTBroadening top      04/06/202105/03/2021Retail Store

 

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Thursday 5/6/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.4% or -51.08 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 443 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 224 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 219 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 214/377 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This looks like a bump-and-run reversal, bottom. According to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition, it ranks first out of 39 for performance.

The red portion is a descending scallop. The blue line is just a trendline sloping downward. The thinking is that when the composite closes above the blue line, it'll signal an upward breakout and the index will climb. As the chart shows, the index has been dropping for more than a week now, so this could continue lower.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 236 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, AES, AA, ADS, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AMED, AEO, AFG, AAPL, ARCB, ATO, AVNT, AVA, BCPC, BLL, BSET, BERY, BBY, BKNG, BOOT, EPAY, BRC, COG, CALM, CE, CX, CVX, CHS, CSCO, CLF, CGNX, CL, CONN, COP, COTY, CR, CREE, CRH, CMI, CW, DHR, DDS, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EMN, WIRE, EQT, EXC, XOM, EZPW, FFIV, FDS, FDX, FOE, FIS, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FCX, FDP, GPS, GIS, GPN, GL, GS, GPRO, GES, HAYN, HON, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, ILMN, NSP, INTC, TILE, IPG, IPI, JAZZ, KFRC, KMB, LAMR, LANC, LEG, LEN, LNC, MTSI, M, MAN, MCHX, MRTN, MLHR, MS, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NEE, NI, NWPX, NVDA, OLN, OTEX, OUT, PTEN, PCG, PICO, PNW, PRU, PEG, DGX, RJF, RGA, RCKY, ROST, RES, CRM, SLB, SMG, SEE, SMTC, SWN, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TDOC, TKR, TOL, RIG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, UNM, VMI, VEEV, VRSN, V, WLK, WEX, WDAY, XLNX, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, ITB, IHI, IEO, IEZ, IDU, DDM, FTEC, FDN, FXI, BOTZ, IAT, IYZ, IGV, IGE, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EWP, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, QQQ, IXC, IXN, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLB, XLK, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,224.72    
 Monthly S1  12,903.57  678.85   
 Daily S2  13,430.68  527.11   
 Daily S1  13,506.55  75.87   
 Low  13,553.93  47.38   
 Monthly Pivot  13,557.57  3.64   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Close  13,582.42  24.85   
 Weekly S1  13,612.18  29.76   
 Daily Pivot  13,629.80  17.62   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,629.99  0.19   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly S2  13,641.93  11.94   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,653.49  11.56   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S2.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,676.99  23.50   
 Daily R1  13,705.67  28.68   
 Open  13,731.13  25.46   
 High  13,753.05  21.92   
 Daily R2  13,828.92  75.87   
 Weekly R1  13,882.12  53.20   
 Weekly Pivot  13,911.87  29.76   
 Weekly R2  14,181.81  269.94   
 Monthly R1  14,236.42  54.61   
 Monthly R2  14,890.42  654.00   

Wednesday 5/5/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Much to my surprise, the CPI is still bullish, as if it ignored the 1.9% tumble in the Nasdaq. Of course, we're not looking at the Nasdaq on this chart. However, at A, you can see that even the S&P dropped today (Tuesday, 0.7%).

Anyway, I drew bearish divergence with the two red lines. One tilts upward and one downward. The divergence suggests a downward move is coming. Maybe it started today...

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 13% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 9%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 73% on 05/13/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 469 stocks in my database are down an average of 9% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 8%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 34% on 05/13/2020.

The red line took a big dip today, dropping from 9% to 13% of the stocks I follow turning bearish. That's a big jump.

The blue line also ticked lower from a week ago, but not so you'd notice on the chart.

This chart shows a worsening situation. The prior chart shows bearish divergence. The 2021 forecast update shows the markets declining until mid to late September. Maybe we're seeing the beginning of the decline. I have my doubts, though. I expect a drop but suspect this is a fake out. It's hard to believe the forecast that things will get bad (3,700 points lower, on the Nasdaq) before markets bottom. The good news is the forecast is rarely correct.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AES, AA, ALKS, AYX, DOX, AMED, AEO, AFG, APH, APA, AAPL, AMAT, ARW, ATO, ADSK, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BZH, BERY, BA, BKNG, EPAY, COG, CDNS, CALM, CLS, CNP, CRL, CHKP, CSCO, CLF, CONN, CLGX, CR, CREE, CRH, CROX, DDS, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EMR, EQT, FFIV, FICO, FLEX, FLIR, FTNT, IT, GPN, GOOGL, GGG, GFF, THG, HAYN, HUBG, ILMN, INFN, NSP, IBKR, NVTA, KALU, KLAC, LRCX, LAWS, LEG, LLY, MTSI, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MU, MLHR, MOS, MYGN, NWL, NEE, NI, NWPX, NVDA, ASGN, OUT, PANW, PTEN, PETS, PCG, PINC, PEG, QCOM, DGX, RNG, RHI, RES, CRM, SEE, SMTC, SCS, SSYS, SNPS, TDOC, TER, TEVA, SLCA, VMI, VEEV, WLK, WDAY, XLNX, IHI, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IAT, IGV, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EEM, EWG, EWM, EWS, EWD, EWT, QLD, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IXN, ILF, XLF, XLK, USO, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/4/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.7% or 238.38 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 688 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 379 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 309 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 224/393 or 57.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Yellow Roadway: YELL (actual trade)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 110 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ACIW, ADTN, AEIS, AES, ATSG, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, APH, ADM, AVNT, BMI, BZH, BBY, BOOT, BRC, BRKS, CDNS, CE, CENX, CNO, CL, CMTL, CCK, DDS, BOOM, EQT, RE, EXC, FICO, FFG, FLIR, FLS, FWRD, FDP, FRD, GME, GS, HTLD, HOV, HUBG, ILMN, NSP, NVTA, JBLU, KLAC, LMT, L, MHO, MTSI, MDC, MU, NOV, NJR, NWL, NEE, NXGN, NI, NWPX, NVDA, OMCL, OMC, PANW, PKE, PFE, PICO, PG, DGX, RNG, RCKY, SEE, NOW, SCCO, SWN, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, UPS, UNM, VMI, VEEV, VMC, WMT, WERN, XLNX, IYK, IYC, DDM, FXI, ICF, IHF, SLV, EWA, EWG, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWD, EWT, QLD, PPA, PJP, QQQ, XLP. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,108.00    
 Monthly S1  33,110.62  1,002.61   
 Weekly S2  33,597.49  486.87   
 Monthly Pivot  33,683.68  86.20   
 Daily S2  33,763.56  79.88   
 Weekly S1  33,855.36  91.80   
 Low  33,904.89  49.53   
 Open  33,904.89  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  33,938.39  33.50   
 Weekly Pivot  34,002.15  63.75   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,025.67  23.52   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,062.98  37.31   
 Daily Pivot  34,079.73  16.75   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,100.28  20.55   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  34,113.23  12.95   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  34,221.06  107.83   
 Daily R1  34,254.56  33.50   
 Weekly R1  34,260.02  5.46   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  34,395.90  135.88   
 Weekly R2  34,406.81  10.91   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  34,686.30  279.49   
 Monthly R2  35,259.36  573.07   

Monday 5/3/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2021 forecast for May, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 30 April 2021 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+33.5%)
2. Financials (+23.9%)
6. Communication services (+17.1%)
5. Real estate (+16.5%)
3. Industrials (+15.7%)
4. Materials (+15.6%)
8. Consumer discretionary (+9.9%)
11. Information technology (+8.6%)
7. Health care (+7.1%)
9. Utilities (+5.4%)
10. Consumer staples (+2.5%)

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

(new) Real estate management and development (35.8%)
1. Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels (+35.4%)
6. Consumer finance (+33.8%)
4. Household durables (+33.2%)
(new) Interactive media and services (30.7%)
5. Banks (+30.0%)
(new) Construction and engineering (+29.7%)
7. Metals and mining (+28.2%)
2. Airlines (+26.3.%)
10. Construction materials (+24.4%)

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 61.92 points.
Tuesday: Up 3.36 points.
Wednesday: Down 164.55 points.
Thursday: Up 239.98 points.
Friday: Down 185.51 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 168.64 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 54.13 points or 0.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 1 points or 0.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.1% down from the high of 34,256.75 on 04/16/2021.
     13.5% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     1.8% down from the high of 14,211.57 on 04/29/2021.
     12.6% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.9% down from the high of 4,218.78 on 04/29/2021.
     14.2% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,679  33,777  33,883  33,981  34,087 
Weekly  33,518  33,696  33,923  34,101  34,327 
Monthly  32,029  32,952  33,604  34,527  35,180 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,161  4,171  4,185  4,195  4,208 
Weekly  4,148  4,164  4,192  4,208  4,236 
Monthly  3,804  3,993  4,106  4,294  4,407 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,853  13,908  13,996  14,051  14,139 
Weekly  13,769  13,866  14,039  14,136  14,309 
Monthly  12,351  13,157  13,684  14,490  15,017 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 92 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACIW, AEIS, AA, AEP, AON, APOG, ASH, ADSK, BCPC, BSET, BECN, BZH, BIO, BOOT, BRKS, CBT, CENX, CSCO, CLX, ED, XRAY, EXP, FDS, FICO, FISV, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, GPS, GIS, GPRO, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HOLX, DHI, IDXX, ILMN, INCY, INFN, INOV, IVC, KBH, KBAL, LB, LAMR, LMT, MDC, MDCA, MYGN, NTAP, NWL, NEE, NI, NVDA, OTEX, PATK, PYPL, PINC, PG, REV, CRM, SO, SCCO, SXI, SSYS, TPX, TRV, SLCA, UGI, VFC, VRTX, WEX, WMB, XLNX, IYK, IHI, FDN, EWM, EWY, XLP, XHB, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Retail (Special Lines)3. Apparel
4. Apparel4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. Petroleum (Integrated)5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
6. Securities Brokerage6. Securities Brokerage
7. Advertising7. Petroleum (Integrated)
8. Homebuilding8. Advertising
9. Furn/Home Furnishings9. Homebuilding
10. Semiconductor Cap Equip.10. Computers and Peripherals
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Specialty)50. Natural Gas (Diversified)
51. Food Processing51. Chemical (Specialty)
52. Electric Utility (West)52. Healthcare Information
53. Precision Instrument53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Healthcare Information54. Food Processing
55. Electric Utility (Central)55. Electric Utility (Central)
56. E-Commerce56. Electric Utility (East)
57. Electric Utility (East)57. E-Commerce
58. Household Products58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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