Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 02/28/2024
  Indus: 38,949 -23.39 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,706 -90.67 -0.6%  
  Utils: 841 -0.99 -0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 15,948 -87.56 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,070 -8.42 -0.2%  
YTD
 +3.3%  
-1.2%  
-4.6%  
 +6.2%  
 +6.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024
As of 02/28/2024
  Indus: 38,949 -23.39 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,706 -90.67 -0.6%  
  Utils: 841 -0.99 -0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 15,948 -87.56 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,070 -8.42 -0.2%  
YTD
 +3.3%  
-1.2%  
-4.6%  
 +6.2%  
 +6.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024

July 2021 Headlines

Archives


Thursday 7/29/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.7% or 102 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 439 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 267 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 172 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 60.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 222/389 or 57.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Let's go through this chart by the letters, starting at A.

This is what I call a multi-peak pattern. Price forms several peaks while price moves sideways. This one isn't ideal because it has one or two peaks above the others.

Bottoms BC combine to form an Adam & Eve double bottom. Adam (B) has a narrow bottom while Eve (C) is much wider. This confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the highest peak between the two bottoms. It leads to a nice rise, to A.

D begins the flagpole of a flag pattern except the flag portion (circled) is too long. Flags should be less than 3 weeks long and this one looks to push the limits of that. The thinking with the flag is that price will resume climbing above the flag in an amount similar to the height of the flagpole, but it's measured from the bottom of the flag. Sound complicated? See the measure rule at the link for an explanation. Hint: it rarely works (46% of the time) as expected.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, AJRD, ATSG, AKAM, AA, ALL, DOX, AEO, AXP, AFG, AIG, APOG, AAPL, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, AXS, BLL, BIG, BIO, BA, BKNG, BLDR, CAL, CLS, CIEN, CINF, CLF, CNO, CL, CLR, CR, CROX, CCRN, DHR, WIRE, EQT, EXPD, FDX, FE, FISV, FLEX, FWRD, GME, IT, GS, GOOGL, EVRG, GFF, GES, HBI, HIG, HNI, HD, HON, HOV, JBHT, IDXX, INFN, NSP, ITGR, IPG, IVC, JAZZ, JNJ, KFRC, LLY, L, MHO, MANH, MRTN, MA, MRK, MSFT, MLHR, MCO, NWL, NKE, NVDA, OUT, OMI, PDCO, PRFT, PFE, PPG, PG, DGX, RMBS, RGS, SAIC, TPR, TPX, TDC, TEVA, TJX, TOL, TRV, UPS, VFC, VMC, WRB, WAT, WSO, WU, ZBRA, ITA, ITB, DDM, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWQ, PPA, PBE, ILF, MXI, XLI. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,636.87    
 Weekly S2  13,925.70  288.83   
 Monthly S1  14,199.73  274.03   
 Weekly S1  14,344.14  144.41   
 Monthly Pivot  14,522.89  178.75   
 Daily S2  14,582.45  59.55   
 Weekly Pivot  14,595.10  12.65   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  14,645.63  50.53   
 Daily S1  14,672.51  26.88   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,704.17  31.66   
 Open  14,715.66  11.49   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,722.25  6.59   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  14,735.70  13.44   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,740.34  4.64   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  14,762.58  22.24   
 High  14,798.88  36.30   
 Daily R1  14,825.76  26.88   
 Daily R2  14,888.95  63.18   
 Weekly R1  15,013.54  124.59   
 Monthly R1  15,085.75  72.21   
 Weekly R2  15,264.50  178.75   
 Monthly R2  15,408.91  144.41   

Wednesday 7/28/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

A thunder storm is approaching so I'll make this brief.

The indicator is still bullish but the thin blue indicator line near chart bottom is heading lower. That was pulled down today by the market's drop. Still, it shows underlying market weakness, I think. Perhaps it's better to describe the market condition as nervous.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 58% on 09/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 466 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 27% on 09/23/2020.

Both lines show a modest recovery from a week ago, continuing an uptrend from the lows mid month. I think the recovery will continue into August, but we have to pierce earnings season, which is happening now.

After that, we'll be heading into September and that's usually a weak time. In sum, it's a time for caution. I still expect the markets to drop in September and October, but might show strength before then, in August.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 119 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, AEIS, APD, ATSG, AA, ALKS, ALL, AYX, DOX, AIG, AMN, APOG, AAPL, ADSK, AXS, BIO, BKH, BRKS, CACI, CAL, CLS, CNC, ED, CSOD, CREE, CROX, CCRN, DUK, EQT, EXC, FFIV, FAST, FDX, FIS, FISV, FWRD, GME, GE, GPN, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, HE, HAYN, HD, HON, HOV, IDA, INCY, INOV, NSP, ITGR, IPI, JCOM, JBLU, KLIC, LHX, LH, RAMP, LMT, MANH, MDT, MU, MSFT, MLHR, CNR, NJR, NVDA, OTEX, OUT, PANW, POR, PINC, PEG, PHM, DGX, SAIC, SRE, SHW, SO, SWX, STMP, TDOC, TDC, TOL, UPS, VFC, VMI, VEEV, VRSN, WDAY, ITA, FXI, IGV, SLV, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EPP, EWT, DBA, PBE, PJP, IXN, MXI, XLP, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 7/27/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.2% or 82.76 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1343 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 729 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 614 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 228/404 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Boeing: BA.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 91 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AXDX, APD, AEO, AMGN, BZH, EPAY, BLDR, BG, CHS, CIEN, CINF, CLR, CR, DOV, DUK, EXP, EPAM, EXPD, FLEX, FCX, GS, EVRG, HON, INOV, IBP, IIIN, KLIC, LEG, MLM, MDCA, MS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NEU, JWN, OGE, OTEX, PKE, PTEN, PPL, PINC, SLGN, LUV, SUM, TDC, VMI, VEEV, VMC, WDAY, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEO, IEZ, FXI, IYH, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWH, EWI, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWT, DBA, PXJ, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLP, GLD, XRT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,733.98    
 Weekly S2  33,306.90  572.92   
 Monthly S1  33,939.14  632.25   
 Weekly S1  34,225.60  286.46   
 Monthly Pivot  34,517.24  291.64   
 Weekly Pivot  34,660.46  143.23   
 Daily S2  34,881.44  220.98   
 Low  34,950.19  68.75   
 Daily S1  35,012.88  62.68   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  35,026.66  13.79   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  35,050.28  23.62   
 Open  35,055.86  5.58   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,073.90  18.04   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  35,081.63  7.72   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  35,144.31  62.68   
 High  35,150.37  6.06   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  35,213.05  62.68   
 Daily R2  35,281.80  68.75   
 Weekly R1  35,579.17  297.37   
 Monthly R1  35,722.40  143.23   
 Weekly R2  36,014.04  291.63   
 Monthly R2  36,300.50  286.46   

Monday 7/26/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

An unconfirmed head-and-shoulders bottom appears at LS (left shoulder), head, and RS (right shoulder). The pattern would confirm as a valid chart pattern when the industrials close above the right armpit (above red line A). That's the highest peak between the head and right shoulder.

It's close but I don't think that's happened yet.

Until we get confirmation, all we have is squiggles on the price chart. However, based on the bullish pattern, we can conclude that price is going to rise in the coming days/weeks.

In fact, you see a strong uptrend has formed over the last week from the right shoulder low. It might stall or encounter resistance at line A, so we'll have to watch it closely.


Top

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 725.81 points.
Tuesday: Up 549.95 points.
Wednesday: Up 286.01 points.
Thursday: Up 25.35 points.
Friday: Up 238.2 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 373.7 points or 1.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 409.75 points or 2.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 84.63 points or 2.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 35,095.33 on 07/23/2021.
     17.4% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 14,846.06 on 07/23/2021.
     19.7% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 4,415.18 on 07/23/2021.
     20.5% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,764  34,913  35,004  35,153  35,244 
Weekly  33,279  34,170  34,633  35,524  35,986 
Monthly  32,706  33,884  34,490  35,667  36,273 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,369  4,390  4,403  4,424  4,437 
Weekly  4,171  4,292  4,353  4,474  4,535 
Monthly  4,092  4,252  4,333  4,494  4,575 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,647  14,742  14,794  14,889  14,941 
Weekly  13,951  14,394  14,620  15,063  15,289 
Monthly  13,662  14,249  14,548  15,135  15,434 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 112 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, AES, AKAM, AMZN, AEO, AMWD, BLL, BERY, BMRN, BBW, CACI, CDNS, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CCK, CTS, DECK, DDS, DOV, BOOM, EMN, EPAM, EL, EXPD, EZPW, FB, FDS, FICO, FLEX, IT, GOOGL, EVRG, HD, HON, DHI, JBHT, NSP, NVTA, KBH, LEG, LEN, LOW, MA, MTRX, MSFT, MS, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, NXGN, PKE, PTEN, PPG, PINC, PHM, RGA, RHI, RCKY, RES, ^GSPC, SHW, SKX, TJX, VFC, VRSN, V, VMC, XLNX, ZBRA, IYC, ITB, IHI, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, FDN, ICF, IYH, IGV, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWD, EWL, QLD, DBA, IEV, IXN, SSO, XLV, XHB, SPY, XLK, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail (Special Lines)1. Retail (Special Lines)
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Homebuilding
3. Shoe3. Advertising
4. Computers and Peripherals4. Petroleum (Producing)
5. Retail Store5. Financial Services
6. Advertising6. Shoe
7. Financial Services7. Computers and Peripherals
8. Human Resources8. Retail Store
9. Information Services9. Human Resources
10. Securities Brokerage10. Information Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Metal Fabricating50. Household Products
51. Metals and Mining (Div.)51. Investment Co. (Foreign)
52. Chemical (Basic)52. Metals and Mining (Div.)
53. Household Products53. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
54. Investment Co. (Foreign)54. Chemical (Basic)
55. Semiconductor55. Healthcare Information
56. Electronics56. Electronics
57. Healthcare Information57. Telecom. Equipment
58. Telecom. Equipment58. Short ETFs
59. Chemical (Specialty)59. Chemical (Specialty)
60. Short ETFs59. Chemical (Specialty)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 7/23/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 107 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AYI, ADBE, AES, AFL, AKAM, ALRM, AMZN, AEO, ANIK, ARCB, ATO, AVY, AVNT, AVA, BLL, EPAY, CACI, CLS, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CLNE, CNO, CR, CROX, CCRN, CMI, EXP, EBAY, EMR, EL, EXPD, FEYE, FE, FLS, FDP, GIS, GPRO, HTLD, HSII, HON, IDXX, ITW, IPG, NVTA, KFRC, MAS, MDCA, MSFT, MLI, NBR, NCR, NTGR, NXGN, OMC, OMI, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PNW, PLXS, PINC, PGR, PRU, DGX, RES, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, NOW, SWN, TPX, TKR, TRV, UPS, WLK, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, FXL, IGV, EWO, EWK, ECH, EWM, EWS, EWP, EWD, QLD, DBA, QQQ, IXN, XLP, XLK, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 576 stocks searched, or 3.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 13 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADTNBroadening wedge, descending      06/08/202107/21/2021Telecom. Equipment
AELDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/08/202107/19/2021Insurance (Life)
BAXTriangle, descending      06/15/202107/16/2021Medical Supplies
CINFRectangle bottom      06/18/202107/22/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CLXBroadening top      06/29/202107/22/2021Household Products
GLWBroadening top, right-angled and descending      06/25/202107/22/2021Telecom. Equipment
FORMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/08/202107/19/2021Semiconductor
GDTriple bottom      06/18/202107/19/2021Aerospace/Defense
NSPTriangle, ascending      05/28/202107/22/2021Human Resources
KBHTriple bottom      07/08/202107/19/2021Homebuilding
KBroadening bottom      06/22/202107/20/2021Food Processing
LHXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/29/202107/19/2021Aerospace/Defense
LXUDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/08/202107/19/2021Building Materials
MASBroadening bottom      06/18/202107/21/2021Building Materials
NWLTriangle, symmetrical      06/01/202107/22/2021Household Products
OTEXScallop, ascending and inverted      05/19/202107/19/2021E-Commerce
PATKHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/22/202107/19/2021Retail Building Supply
VMCTriangle, symmetrical      06/18/202107/22/2021Cement and Aggregates
WEXTriangle, symmetrical      06/29/202107/16/2021Information Services

 

Top


Thursday 7/22/21. Cryptocurrency DOGE-USD

The index climbed by 0.9% or 133.07 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 307 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 197 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 110 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 64.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 221/388 or 57.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the crypto DOGE-USD.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the cryptocurrency DOGE-USD.

Notice the scale: It's below a dollar and that makes it hard to chart on my software using the log scale. This is the linear scale.

At C, that's a potential double top, suggesting the currency would drop. However, the currency didn't close below the horizontal blue line (D) to confirm the pattern, so the double top was just squiggles on the chart.

At B, however, a bump-and-run reversal top appeared which predicted a decline for those astute enough to notice the pattern and had the courage to exit their positions.

Indeed, the currency plunged through the red trendline and kept going down, quite dramatically by the end of the month, too.

What remains on the chart is what I call a price mountain. It's not as clean as the ones shown in the link but I think it's valid nonetheless. The pattern suggests it could be years before it moves above peak A again. But that's true of stocks, not cryptocurrencies. So all hope is not lost.

More recently, a symmetrical triangle (E) had an upward breakout but the follow-through wasn't strong enough to reach the price target (the pattern's height added to the breakout price).

Since then, the currency has faded, following a nice straight trend toward zero.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 96 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADTN, AFL, ATSG, ALK, AA, AMZN, ANTM, AWI, ATO, ADSK, AVA, BKNG, CACI, CPB, CE, CLS, CHKP, CTXS, CMCO, CMTL, CR, CCK, CSGS, DFS, ^DJU, BOOM, EOG, FLEX, FMC, FWRD, GS, HAYN, IDA, ITGR, IPG, KALU, KMB, LHX, LZB, L, LXU, MS, NOV, NWL, NEE, NKE, NI, PKE, PNW, PFG, PG, PRU, PEG, KWR, RJF, RGA, REV, RCKY, SCHW, SR, TMO, TJX, RIG, TZOO, UNM, IYM, IDU, IAT, EWA, EWK, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWP, EWD, EWU, DBA, ROBO, IEV, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLP, XLF, XLB, XRT, XLU, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,546.50    
 Monthly S1  14,089.23  542.72   
 Weekly S2  14,225.96  136.73   
 Weekly S1  14,428.95  203.00   
 Monthly Pivot  14,446.45  17.50   
 Daily S2  14,453.42  6.97   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Low  14,498.65  45.23   
 Open  14,508.75  10.10   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  14,542.69  33.94   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,550.03  7.34   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,565.89  15.87   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,581.76  15.87   
 Daily Pivot  14,587.91  6.15   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  14,616.32  28.40   
 Close  14,631.95  15.63   
 High  14,633.14  1.19   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  14,677.18  44.04   
 Daily R2  14,722.40  45.23   
 Weekly R1  14,819.31  96.91   
 Monthly R1  14,989.18  169.86   
 Weekly R2  15,006.68  17.50   
 Monthly R2  15,346.40  339.73   

Wednesday 7/21/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator this past 7-days erased the bearish/bullish signal pair and left the July red bar in place as a bearish forecast. Then today's (Tuesday) action flipped the indicator to bullish.

The signal appears as the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart. A check of the numbers shows that only 12 bullish patterns caused the signal with 86 waiting to weigh in.

And that means the signal can disappear easily enough (which can happen for up to a week). So this chart is bullish but the signal I consider weak.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 17%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 58% on 09/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 466 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 27% on 09/23/2020.

As the chart shows, the red line took a steep dive compared to a week ago.

So this week, we have one stealth-bullish chart and one bearish chart. With earnings starting and summer being weak for stocks anyway, especially leading into September and October, I'm inclined to wait for this splash of Delta variant to scare the markets in the coming weeks. That will clear the slate for what happens next. A nice recovery in November or December.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 84 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMD, AKAM, AA, AMZN, AEP, AXP, AMGN, ARCB, BIG, BIIB, BKH, BKNG, COG, CACI, CPB, CLX, CMTL, CONN, CR, CW, DOV, EBAY, EXC, FICO, FEYE, GME, GIS, GNW, GILD, GS, GOOGL, HSIC, HSY, IEX, ITGR, IPG, KMB, LHX, LEG, RAMP, LXU, MANH, MAN, MDCA, MDT, OMC, ASGN, PANW, PKE, PRFT, PFE, PPG, PFG, PG, KWR, SKX, SWX, TDOC, TPX, RIG, VC, WMT, XEL, XLNX, ITA, SLV, EWZ, EWJ, TUR, PPA, DBA, IEV, XLP, GLD, UNG, USO, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 7/20/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Big Lots (BLI)

The index dropped by -2.1% or -725.81 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 69 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 40 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 29 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 58.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 227/403 or 56.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Big Lots: BLI stock..

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 343 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ACN, AYI, AEIS, AMD, AES, APD, ATSG, ALK, ALB, AA, ADS, ALL, AYX, AMZN, AEP, AXP, AMGN, APH, ANIK, APA, APOG, AWI, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, BMI, BSET, BECN, BERY, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BBW, CBT, COG, CACI, CE, CLS, CX, CNC, CENX, CF, CVX, CIEN, CLF, CLX, CNO, CTSH, CMCO, CMTL, CAG, CONN, COP, CLR, CSOD, GLW, COST, CR, CREE, CRH, CCRN, CCK, CTS, CMI, CW, DVN, DDS, DFS, ^DJT, ^DJI, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EL, RE, XOM, EZPW, FFIV, FB, FEYE, FISV, FLEX, FMC, FCX, FDP, FRD, GPS, GD, GNW, GL, GS, GGG, GFF, GES, THG, HLIT, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HL, HSII, HP, HSIC, DHI, HOV, HUBG, HURC, ITW, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, TILE, IPG, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KMB, KSS, LZB, LH, LAMR, LEG, LLY, LNC, M, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MDCA, MU, MS, MOS, MLI, MUR, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NCR, NTGR, NTAP, NXGN, NKE, JWN, OXY, OGE, ORI, OLN, OMC, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PKG, PANW, PAYX, PCG, PICO, PLXS, PPL, PINC, PFG, PRU, PHM, KWR, QCOM, RL, RJF, RGS, RGA, REV, RNG, RHI, RCKY, ROST, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SMTC, LUV, SWN, SCS, SUM, SNPS, TPR, TPX, TEVA, TJX, RIG, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VFC, VLO, VMI, VMC, WSO, WERN, WLK, WEX, WMB, WWW, XEL, XLNX, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, ITB, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, EWU, QLD, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, QQQ, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLF, XHB, XLI, XLB, XAR, XLK, UNG, USO, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,289.91    
 Monthly S1  33,125.98  836.06   
 Daily S2  33,290.71  164.73   
 Daily S1  33,626.38  335.67   
 Low  33,741.76  115.39   
 Close  33,962.04  220.28   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,042.29  80.25   
 Weekly S1  34,043.24  0.95   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  34,077.43  34.19   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Monthly Pivot  34,107.99  30.57   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly S2  34,124.43  16.44   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,135.12  10.69   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S2.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,227.95  92.83   
 Daily R1  34,413.09  185.14   
 Weekly R1  34,485.43  72.33   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 High  34,528.48  43.05   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Open  34,528.48  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the High.
 Weekly Pivot  34,566.63  38.14   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  34,864.15  297.52   
 Monthly R1  34,944.05  79.91   
 Weekly R2  35,008.81  64.76   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  35,926.07  917.26   

Monday 7/19/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This is the Dow transports on the daily scale.

There's not a lot I can say about this picture. The index is dropping, following a channel down. I show that in red lines.

However, if we look at the amount of retrace of the AB move, it's about 38% (maybe 40% now). So we could expect a turn. If it doesn't turn up, then expect a turn at 50% and then at 62% and then...

Eventually, it'll turn up, just don't depend on Fibonacci telling you when.


Top

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 126.02 points.
Tuesday: Down 107.39 points.
Wednesday: Up 44.44 points.
Thursday: Up 53.79 points.
Friday: Down 299.17 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 182.31 points or 0.5%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 274.68 points or 1.9%.
The S&P 500 index was down 42.39 points or 1.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.2% down from the high of 35,091.56 on 05/10/2021.
     16.2% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     2.5% down from the high of 14,803.68 on 07/13/2021.
     16.4% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     1.5% down from the high of 4,393.68 on 07/14/2021.
     18.1% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,366  34,527  34,809  34,969  35,251 
Weekly  34,366  34,527  34,809  34,969  35,251 
Monthly  32,532  33,610  34,350  35,428  36,168 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,289  4,308  4,342  4,361  4,394 
Weekly  4,277  4,302  4,348  4,373  4,419 
Monthly  4,066  4,196  4,295  4,426  4,524 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,278  14,353  14,488  14,562  14,698 
Weekly  14,158  14,292  14,548  14,683  14,938 
Monthly  13,478  13,953  14,378  14,853  15,278 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 229 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AXDX, ACN, AEIS, AMD, AJRD, AES, APD, ATSG, ALRM, ALB, ADS, AEO, AXP, AIG, AMWD, AMN, APOG, ADM, AWI, ASH, ATO, AVY, AVNT, AVA, BSET, BECN, BIG, BIO, BMRN, BKH, BA, BOOT, EPAY, BRC, CACI, CPB, CE, CNC, CENX, CVX, CLF, CLX, CNA, COP, GLW, COST, CREE, CRH, CCRN, CW, XRAY, DFS, ^DJU, ^DJT, ^DJI, DTE, EXP, EMN, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EL, FDS, FICO, FAST, FDX, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FORM, FWRD, IT, GE, GNW, GILD, GS, GOOGL, EVRG, GFF, HSC, HQY, HSII, HSY, HNI, HON, HOV, HUBG, HURC, IDA, ITW, INCY, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, IPG, ISRG, IVC, KALU, KBH, KMT, KMB, LZB, LH, LAMR, LANC, LAWS, LNC, LOW, LXU, MHO, MLM, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MDCA, MGEE, MLHR, MS, MYGN, NFG, CNR, NCR, NTAP, NJR, NI, OGE, OLN, OMC, OXM, PKE, PAYX, PCG, PICO, PLXS, PINC, PRU, PHM, QCOM, RL, RMBS, RJF, RGS, RGA, REV, ROST, SAIA, SEE, SRE, LUV, SCS, SUM, TPX, TDC, TER, TKR, RIG, TZOO, TG, UPS, UNM, VFC, VMC, WSO, WERN, WLK, WMB, WWW, XLNX, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, ITB, IDU, DDM, FXI, BOTZ, IAT, IYZ, IYF, EWO, EWC, ECH, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWU, PPA, DBA, PJP, ROBO, MXI, XLP, XLF, XHB, XLI, XLB, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail (Special Lines)1. Retail (Special Lines)
2. Homebuilding2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Advertising3. Homebuilding
4. Petroleum (Producing)4. Shoe
5. Financial Services5. Advertising
6. Shoe6. Petroleum (Integrated)
7. Computers and Peripherals7. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
8. Retail Store8. Retail Store
9. Human Resources9. Apparel
10. Information Services10. Computers and Peripherals
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Household Products50. Chemical (Diversified)
51. Investment Co. (Foreign)51. Metals and Mining (Div.)
52. Metals and Mining (Div.)52. Electronics
53. Semiconductor Cap Equip.53. Investment Co. (Foreign)
54. Chemical (Basic)54. Healthcare Information
55. Healthcare Information55. Chemical (Basic)
56. Electronics56. Telecom. Equipment
57. Telecom. Equipment57. Household Products
58. Short ETFs58. Chemical (Specialty)
59. Chemical (Specialty)59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 7/16/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 126 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AEIS, AMD, AES, ALRM, ALKS, ALL, AEO, AFG, ANIK, AIZ, ADP, AXS, BIIB, BOOT, CACI, CDNS, CAL, CPB, CE, CNC, CNP, CRL, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CMTL, CAG, CLR, CREE, CRH, CROX, CTS, CW, DHR, DVN, EMR, EOG, EPAM, FB, FEYE, FISV, FLEX, FORM, GE, GIS, GNW, GOOGL, GPRO, GES, HLIT, HE, HQY, HON, DHI, HOV, IDXX, IIIN, INTC, KBAL, KMB, KLIC, LOW, MTSI, MLM, MDCA, MU, MYGN, NFG, NTAP, NEU, OUT, OXM, PCG, PGR, PHM, QCOM, RL, RGA, RLI, SAIC, SMG, SHW, SR, TPX, TSCO, RIG, VFC, VMC, WRB, WWW, XLNX, IHI, IHE, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IGV, SOXX, EWA, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EIS, EWI, EWY, EWP, EWU, PPA, PJP, XLP, XLV, UNG, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AGOTriangle, ascending      06/03/202107/15/2021Insurance (Life)
BMYTriangle, ascending      05/24/202107/14/2021Drug
EXPTriangle, symmetrical      06/18/202107/15/2021Cement and Aggregates
FETriangle, symmetrical      06/23/202107/12/2021Electric Utility (East)
GILDTriangle, symmetrical      05/21/202107/15/2021Biotechnology
ILMNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      06/28/202107/13/2021Biotechnology
NSPTriangle, ascending      05/28/202107/14/2021Human Resources
MLMTriangle, symmetrical      06/18/202107/15/2021Cement and Aggregates
NFGTriangle, descending      06/11/202107/14/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
PFETriangle, symmetrical      05/05/202107/15/2021Drug
DGXScallop, descending      05/10/202107/12/2021Medical Services
RLITriangle, ascending      06/15/202107/15/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RHITriangle, descending      06/16/202107/15/2021Human Resources
SEICTriangle, descending      05/19/202107/15/2021IT Services
TXTTriangle, descending      06/28/202107/15/2021Diversified Co.
TKRRectangle bottom      06/17/202107/15/2021Metal Fabricating
RIGPipe top      06/28/202107/06/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
WUScallop, descending      06/09/202107/14/2021Financial Services

 

Top


Thursday 7/15/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.2% or -32.7 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 526 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 276 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 250 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 221/387 or 57.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

In light blue, at B, I show an awful looking symmetrical triangle. I say it's awful because of the way I drew the top trendline. The line doesn't touch enough points to make me comfortable. Symmetricals breakout upward 60% of the time when price reaches 74% of the way to the triangle's apex. This one appears to have broken both of those by breaking out downward after having traveled more than 74% of the way to the apex. Maybe getting too close to the apex without breaking out is a warning of an adverse breakout.

At A is a falling wedge. Those chart patterns breakout upward 68% of the time. An upward breakout would align with the above probabilities of Thursday's Nasdaq closing higher. So that's how I'd place my bets.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 102 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACIW, AMD, ALL, AEE, ANIK, ANTM, AAPL, AMAT, AIZ, ATO, BA, BOOT, BMY, CPB, CNC, CRL, CSCO, CL, CMTL, CLR, CREE, CROX, CTS, CW, DVN, BOOM, EMN, EMR, EOG, EL, FB, FTNT, GIS, HLIT, HOV, JBHT, IDXX, NSP, INTC, NVTA, KBAL, KMB, KLIC, LRCX, RAMP, LOW, MTSI, MTRX, MDC, MDCA, MOS, NBR, NTAP, NOC, OXY, OGE, OUT, OXM, PNW, RGS, RES, SMTC, SO, SSYS, SRDX, TPX, TMO, RIG, V, VMC, WU, XLNX, ITA, IHE, DDM, FXI, IYH, IGV, SOXX, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EWW, EPP, EWP, PPA, DBA, PBE, XLP, GLD, XLV, XAR, UNG, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,424.62    
 Monthly S1  14,034.78  610.17   
 Weekly S2  14,206.88  172.10   
 Monthly Pivot  14,395.06  188.17   
 Weekly S1  14,425.92  30.86   
 Daily S2  14,531.88  105.97   
 Daily S1  14,588.42  56.53   
 Weekly Pivot  14,590.62  2.21   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  14,632.95  42.33   
 Close  14,644.95  12.00   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  14,689.48  44.53   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,693.15  3.67   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,711.75  18.60   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,730.35  18.60   
 Daily R1  14,746.02  15.67   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  14,780.90  34.88   
 High  14,790.55  9.65   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  14,809.66  19.11   
 Daily R2  14,847.08  37.43   
 Weekly R2  14,974.36  127.28   
 Monthly R1  15,005.22  30.86   
 Monthly R2  15,365.50  360.27   

Wednesday 7/14/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This chart shows the CPI turning bearish. That's what the vertical red line on the far right of the chart means. It has a bottom of 11.1, which is close to its lowest value (0).

Don't panic. The bearish signal can disappear for up to a week. Usually it's stable after 3 days (price bars). If the market were to soar, I'm sure the signal would evaporate.

As you look over the chart, notice that when the signal flips, it takes more than 2 price bars. Often it's a week, minimum, for a switch from bull to bear or the reverse. So there's evidence that this is just noise.

Let's see what the next chart says.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 17% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 16%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 58% on 09/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 466 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 27% on 09/23/2020.

Both lines dropped more than they did a week ago, so that's bearish. It suggests there's weakness in the markets. Notice how the lines peaked in mid March and are much lower now.

Now look at the index. It's climbed over the same period. That's bearish divergence and it's not a good sign. But close readers of this blog will know I've been complaining about that for months now. The index ignores me and continues to rise.

So both charts are bearish. The market is getting tired, but it might not be ready to give up and make a sustained drop.

$ $ $

I released a new pattern which I call 3-peaks and spike. The bearish pattern ranks 9th out of 38 for performance where 1 is best.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 89 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AMD, ALL, AEE, ANIK, ANTM, AIZ, ADP, BSET, BERY, EPAY, BG, CPB, CF, CMTL, CSOD, COST, DTE, BOOM, EMN, FFIV, FDP, GFF, HBI, HD, DHI, HURC, INOV, NSP, JKHY, KELYA, KMB, LHX, LAMR, LDOS, RAMP, LOW, MHO, M, MRTN, MAS, MTRX, MDCA, MCO, MOS, NFLX, NOC, OGE, ORI, OLN, OMI, OXM, PFE, PNW, PPG, PINC, PHM, RHI, ROG, SEIC, SMTC, SNPS, TPX, RIG, UGI, VRSN, WERN, WU, WLK, XLNX, ZBRA, BOTZ, IGV, EEM, EWH, EWW, PBE, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IXN, XAR, XLK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 7/13/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.4% or 126.02 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1117 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 592 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 525 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 227/402 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Alaska Air: ALK 1.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 79 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADBE, AYX, AEE, APH, APOG, ADSK, BCPC, BMRN, BMY, BBW, BLDR, CIEN, CSCO, CLNE, COST, DUK, EPAM, FFIV, FB, FAST, GME, GIS, EVRG, INCY, INFN, TILE, IVC, JKHY, KMB, LHX, RAMP, MANH, MDCA, MLHR, MCO, NJR, NWPX, OMCL, OTEX, OUT, PETS, PFE, RGS, RNG, ROK, SO, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, VRSN, IYC, DDM, BOTZ, IYH, IGV, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWY, EWD, EWL, TUR, QLD, DBA, PJP, QQQ, XLV, XLU, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,765.49    
 Monthly S1  33,880.83  1,115.35   
 Weekly S2  33,930.37  49.54   
 Monthly Pivot  34,387.28  456.91   
 Weekly S1  34,463.27  76.00   
 Daily S2  34,628.99  165.72   
 Weekly Pivot  34,678.50  49.50   
 Low  34,730.15  51.65   
 Daily S1  34,812.59  82.44   
 Open  34,836.75  24.16   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,838.93  2.18   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,872.52  33.60   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,906.13  33.60   
 Daily Pivot  34,913.74  7.62   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  34,996.18  82.44   
 High  35,014.90  18.72   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  35,097.34  82.44   
 Daily R2  35,198.49  101.16   
 Weekly R1  35,211.40  12.91   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  35,426.63  215.22   
 Monthly R1  35,502.63  76.00   
 Monthly R2  36,009.07  506.44   

Monday 7/12/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

As the chart shows, the utilities are following a channel lower (two red lines). In fact, the index just touched the bottom of the channel wall and bounced upward.

It looks as if the top red line should be lowered to better hug price. I show that as a yellow line. That line suggests the index is going to bounce off it and head lower.

What I think we'll see is the index drop for a few days and then try for the top red line. That's what happened before the June peak (the move from A to B, shown as a blue line). Maybe history will repeat itself.

Top

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 208.98 points.
Wednesday: Up 104.42 points.
Thursday: Down 259.86 points.
Friday: Up 448.23 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 83.81 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 62.59 points or 0.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 17.21 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.6% down from the high of 35,091.56 on 05/10/2021.
     16.8% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     0.4% down from the high of 14,755.33 on 07/07/2021.
     18.6% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 4,371.60 on 07/09/2021.
     19.3% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Top

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,304  34,587  34,740  35,023  35,177 
Weekly  33,888  34,379  34,636  35,127  35,385 
Monthly  32,723  33,797  34,345  35,419  35,967 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,315  4,342  4,357  4,384  4,399 
Weekly  4,261  4,315  4,344  4,398  4,426 
Monthly  4,095  4,232  4,302  4,439  4,509 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,497  14,599  14,655  14,757  14,813 
Weekly  14,226  14,464  14,610  14,848  14,993 
Monthly  13,444  14,073  14,414  15,043  15,384 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 4 days.

Here's a symbol list of 84 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AJRD, APD, ATSG, ALB, AIG, APH, ANTM, APOG, ACGL, AIZ, AXS, BBY, BA, BLDR, CHKP, CHS, CIEN, CINF, CSCO, CLF, CNA, CNO, CMTL, ED, CLR, CCK, XRAY, DDS, ^DJT, DUK, EQT, RE, EVH, FFIV, FICO, FOE, FLEX, FLS, HIG, HON, IEX, ITW, INCY, KMB, RAMP, L, LOW, MLM, MDT, JWN, NUS, ORI, PKG, PKE, PAYX, PICO, PINC, PGR, PRU, KWR, RGA, REV, RCKY, ROST, SMG, STMP, TOL, VMC, WSM, IYC, IYH, IHF, IYZ, THD, SSO, XLV, XLI, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail (Special Lines)1. Retail (Special Lines)
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Homebuilding3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
4. Shoe4. Petroleum (Integrated)
5. Advertising5. Shoe
6. Petroleum (Integrated)6. Homebuilding
7. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment7. Apparel
8. Retail Store8. Securities Brokerage
9. Apparel9. Furn/Home Furnishings
10. Computers and Peripherals10. Human Resources
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Diversified)50. Investment Co. (Foreign)
51. Metals and Mining (Div.)51. Food Processing
52. Electronics52. Computer Software and Svcs
53. Investment Co. (Foreign)53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Healthcare Information54. Electric Utility (East)
55. Chemical (Basic)55. Telecom. Equipment
56. Telecom. Equipment56. Electric Utility (Central)
57. Household Products57. Household Products
58. Chemical (Specialty)58. Chemical (Specialty)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 7/9/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 161 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AEIS, AJRD, ATSG, ALKS, ADS, AYX, AMZN, AMED, AEP, AIG, APOG, AGO, AXS, BBY, BKNG, BRC, BLDR, CALM, CAL, CNP, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CONN, CSOD, COTY, CRH, CCK, CSGS, DVN, DTE, DUK, EXP, EQT, FFIV, FICO, FOE, FLEX, FORM, FCX, FDP, GPS, GE, GNW, GL, HQY, HSII, INCY, INTC, IPG, NVTA, KBH, KMT, KMB, KLAC, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LAWS, RAMP, MHO, MCHX, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MU, MLHR, MOS, NEU, JWN, NWPX, NUS, OXY, ORI, PKE, PETS, PCG, PLXS, PRU, PHM, RGA, REV, RCKY, RES, SAIA, CRM, SCHW, SMG, SEIC, STMP, SRDX, TPR, TEVA, TOL, TG, UNM, VLO, WWW, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, FXI, BOTZ, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, THD, EWU, PPA, PBE, IEV, XLF, GLD. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 9 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 1.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AEOBump-and-run reversal, top      06/04/202107/08/2021Apparel
ATRRectangle bottom      06/18/202107/02/2021Packaging and Container
CBTDiamond bottom      06/22/202107/07/2021Chemical (Diversified)
XOMRising wedge      03/11/202107/02/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
GILDTriangle, symmetrical      05/21/202107/08/2021Biotechnology
HAYNTriangle, symmetrical      06/18/202107/07/2021Building Materials
OUTTriangle, ascending      05/04/202107/07/2021Advertising
TZOOBroadening bottom      06/14/202107/02/2021Internet
WMBRectangle bottom      06/18/202107/07/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)

 

Top


Thursday 7/8/21. Ethereum Cryptocurrency

The index climbed by 0.0% or 1.42 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 684 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 390 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 294 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 221/386 or 57.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Picture of the Ethereum on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a chart of the cryptocurrency called Ethereum.

I don't trade cryptocurrency but let's look at the chart to see what it says.

A small double bottom appears at AB which confirms as valid when the currency closes above the horizontal red line. It throws back to the breakout price at C.

Double bottoms are bullish. They predict a rise in price which is what you see happen after the throwback completes.

The two converging blue lines highlight the outline of a four-touch symmetrical triangle. I like to see five touches, but that's not what happened. Still, the pattern is useful. I know from a study of triangles in stocks that price will often turn when it reaches the date of the apex. The apex is where the two blue lines join.

When that will happen is unknown from this chart. I'd have to extend the right vertical axis to see where on the calendar the two blue lines will join. The date of that joining may see the currency turn down (the duration of the drop is unknown).

I also know that the apex of a triangle is a resistance area. That resistance is at about $2,544. So if the cryptocurrency rises to about 2500 to 2550, I would expect to see it hit resistance and drop.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AXDX, APD, ALKS, AYX, ANIK, ANTM, AON, APOG, ARCB, AVY, BCPC, BKNG, BAH, BLDR, CPB, CLS, CHKP, CINF, ED, CONN, COP, CSOD, COTY, CREE, CMI, DOV, DRQ, EIX, EOG, RE, FFIV, FDS, FICO, FOE, FLS, FDP, GD, GL, GGG, THG, HSC, HSII, HELE, HOLX, HD, HON, HOV, ITW, INCY, INTC, INTU, NVTA, JKHY, LB, LANC, LAWS, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, LMT, LOW, M, MTRN, MTRX, MU, MLHR, MOS, NJR, NI, OMCL, OUT, PKE, PETS, PCG, PICO, PNW, PPG, PRU, KWR, QCOM, RGS, RCKY, RES, CRM, SCHW, SHW, STMP, SXI, TPR, TFX, TPX, RIG, TRV, TG, UNM, WRB, WSO, WERN, WMB, WSM, WWW, XLNX, IYK, IDU, BOTZ, IYZ, EWA, EWZ, EEM, EWG, EWW, EPP, EZA, EWL, THD, PHO, ILF, XLY, XLP, XLF, XHB, XLI, XAR, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,187.51    
 Monthly S1  13,926.28  738.78   
 Monthly Pivot  14,287.70  361.41   
 Weekly S2  14,345.21  57.52   
 Daily S2  14,492.51  147.29   
 Weekly S1  14,505.14  12.63   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly Pivot  14,577.12  71.99   
 Daily S1  14,578.78  1.66   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  14,580.78  2.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,647.46  66.68   
 Close  14,665.06  17.60   
 Daily Pivot  14,667.06  2.00   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,668.05  1.00   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,688.65  20.60   
 Weekly R1  14,737.05  48.39   
 Daily R1  14,753.33  16.29   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Open  14,753.41  0.08   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  14,755.33  1.92   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R2  14,809.03  53.70   
 Daily R2  14,841.61  32.57   
 Monthly R1  15,026.47  184.87   
 Monthly R2  15,387.89  361.41   

Wednesday 7/7/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The red bar is baaack! The CPI chart shows it as a bearish signal. It appeared today, despite what looks like Friday on the chart. That's because signals can change for up to a week.

Today's move was large enough to cause NR7s sitting on the sidelines to flip bearish, and they flipped enough of those from Friday's action to cause a bearish breakout in those as well. Hence the bearish signal.

Notice how the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart swung down after the green bar in late June. The market has been losing upward momentum for the last two weeks...

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 16% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 14%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 61% on 07/09/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 466 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 11%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 27% on 07/09/2020.

As the chart shows, both lines took a big dip today, but when compared to a week ago, the damage is far less severe (but still worse today).

Look at the slope of the two lines. They are heading lower and have been since peaking in March. Market support is weakening and that's not good.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, AYI, APD, AIG, APH, ANIK, AAPL, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BERY, BLDR, CAL, CLS, CHKP, CGNX, CL, CONN, COP, CRH, DHR, DECK, DRQ, EXP, EBAY, EOG, EL, EXPD, FICO, FOE, FDP, IT, GD, GNW, GL, HSC, HSII, HELE, HOLX, HD, IBP, IIIN, INTC, JKHY, LB, LH, L, MHO, M, MAS, MTRN, MDC, MDT, NFG, NOV, NCR, NFLX, NXGN, OGE, PKE, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, PLXS, PPL, PRU, QCOM, RGS, REV, RLI, RCKY, RES, SAIA, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SCCO, TPX, TSCO, RIG, TZOO, TG, UGI, VRTX, WAT, WU, WEX, WMB, WWW, IYM, IEO, FXI, IYZ, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWZ, EEM, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWP, EWU, PPA, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLF. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 7/6/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Alaska Air (2)

The index climbed by 0.4% or 152.82 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1116 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 592 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 524 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 227/401 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Alaska Air: ALK 2.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 48 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALB, AA, ALL, ANIK, AON, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, BBBY, BBY, COG, CAL, CX, CENX, GLW, CREE, CCRN, EQT, RE, FLEX, FCX, GS, HSII, HP, KMT, KFRC, KSS, LRCX, LNC, M, MAN, MRO, MDCA, MU, NEU, JWN, PFG, SMTC, SCCO, SWN, SCS, TDC, TSCO, VMI, VRTX, IAI, DDM, IAT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,725.14    
 Monthly S1  33,755.75  1,030.60   
 Weekly S2  33,962.34  206.59   
 Monthly Pivot  34,302.54  340.20   
 Weekly S1  34,374.34  71.81   
 Daily S2  34,532.15  157.80   
 Weekly Pivot  34,598.14  65.99   
 Low  34,613.49  15.35   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  34,642.42  28.93   
 Daily S1  34,659.25  16.83   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,693.11  33.86   
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,717.71  24.60   
 Daily Pivot  34,740.59  22.88   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,742.30  1.71   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  34,786.35  44.05   
 High  34,821.93  35.58   
 Daily R1  34,867.69  45.76   
 Daily R2  34,949.03  81.34   
 Weekly R1  35,010.14  61.11   
 Weekly R2  35,233.94  223.79   
 Monthly R1  35,333.14  99.20   
 Monthly R2  35,879.92  546.79   

Monday 7/5/21. Feeding ThePatternSite.

Today (Monday) is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

  2. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page. For a limited time and while supplies last, I'll throw in a free book to those with addresses in the US who donate $100 or more. See the donate page for details.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

Top


Friday 7/2/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ADBE, AEIS, AFL, ALB, AA, ALL, AMGN, AMN, ANIK, AON, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, AGO, AVY, AVNT, BCPC, BLL, BSET, BBBY, BBY, BBW, BG, CBT, COG, CAL, CPB, CE, CX, CENX, CRL, CHD, CTSH, CMCO, GLW, CREE, CCRN, CTS, DHR, DECK, D, DTE, EMN, EBAY, EMR, EQT, RE, FB, FLEX, FCX, FDP, GE, GILD, GS, GPRO, GES, HSC, HSII, HELE, HP, HNI, HON, IEX, IDXX, INOV, IIIN, TILE, IPG, ISRG, IVC, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KSS, KLIC, LB, LRCX, LLY, LNC, MTSI, M, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MDCA, MU, ^IXIC, NTGR, NEU, NKE, JWN, PKE, PAYX, PRFT, PPG, PFG, KWR, REV, RNG, ROK, SMTC, NOW, SCCO, SWN, SCS, SSYS, TDC, TSCO, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VMI, VRTX, WDAY, IAI, IYK, IYC, IHI, IHE, DDM, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IAT, SOXX, IGE, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWJ, EWM, THD, PJP, ILF, SSO, XLI, SPY, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 3.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 10 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 21 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ATSGRectangle bottom      06/21/202107/01/2021Air Transport
AMATPipe bottom      06/14/202106/21/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
AGORoof, inverted      06/02/202107/01/2021Insurance (Life)
BMIRectangle bottom      03/22/202106/28/2021Precision Instrument
BCPCTriangle, symmetrical      05/06/202107/01/2021Chemical (Specialty)
BBBYPipe bottom      06/14/202106/21/2021Retail (Special Lines)
BBYPipe bottom      06/14/202106/21/2021Retail (Special Lines)
COGPipe bottom      06/14/202106/21/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
CXBroadening top      05/10/202106/25/2021Cement and Aggregates
CFDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/18/202106/28/2021Chemical (Basic)
CCRNPipe top      06/14/202106/21/2021Human Resources
FICOTriangle, ascending      05/26/202106/30/2021IT Services
FISDouble Top, Eve and Eve      06/17/202106/28/2021Computer Software and Svcs
GSPipe bottom      06/14/202106/21/2021Securities Brokerage
GFFTriangle, descending      06/10/202107/01/2021Building Materials
HPDiamond top      06/04/202107/01/2021Petroleum (Producing)
IPGDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/18/202106/30/2021Advertising
KLACBroadening top, right-angled and descending      05/25/202106/29/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MDCAPipe bottom      06/14/202106/21/2021Advertising
MUPipe bottom      06/14/202106/21/2021Semiconductor
MOSDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/18/202106/28/2021Chemical (Diversified)
OMCDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/18/202106/28/2021Advertising
PFETriangle, symmetrical      05/05/202107/01/2021Drug
DGXScallop, descending      05/10/202106/29/2021Medical Services
RLIHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/08/202106/28/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SAIATriangle, ascending      06/10/202107/01/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
CRMRectangle top      06/14/202107/01/2021E-Commerce
SMTCPipe bottom      06/14/202106/21/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TPRRectangle bottom      06/04/202107/01/2021Apparel
TSCOPipe bottom      06/14/202106/21/2021Retail Building Supply
VFCChannel      05/25/202107/01/2021Apparel
VRTXPipe bottom      06/14/202106/21/2021Biotechnology

 

Top


Thursday 7/1/21. 2021 Market Forecast Update

The index dropped by -0.2% or -24.38 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 525 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 275 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 250 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 220/385 or 57.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Here's the updated 2021 forecast for July, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 30 June 2021 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+40.5%)
2. Financials (+23.9%)
5. Real estate (+21.7%)
6. Communication services (+19.4%)
4. Industrials (+14.6%)
9. Information technology (+13.3%)
3. Materials (+13.2%)
7. Health care (+11.0%)
8. Consumer discretionary (+9.9%)
10. Consumer staples (+2.9%)
11. Utilities (+1.0%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order.

1. Information technology
2. Health care
3. Consumer discretionary
4. Financials
5. Communication services
6. Industrials
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Materials
11. Real estate
10. Utilities

The only change in the above list was real estate moved up a notch.

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns, as of 6/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

4. Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels (+41.8%)
2. Consumer finance (+40.4%)
3. Real estate management and development (36.7%)
8. Interactive media and services (35.6%)
1. Metals and mining (+30.4%)
10. Distributors (+28.9%)
(new) Building products (28.5%)
9. Energy equipment and services (+28.2%)
5. Banks (+26.6%)
7. Household durables (+26.5%)
(new) Capital markets (25.2%)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 185 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AXDX, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, AJRD, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALL, AMED, ANIK, AON, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ASH, AVNT, BAX, BBBY, BBY, BIIB, BOOT, BAH, BMY, CBT, COG, CAL, CPB, CX, CENX, CTXS, CMCO, COP, CSOD, GLW, CR, CREE, CRH, CROX, CCRN, DECK, ^DJI, D, EMN, EBAY, EQT, RE, EVH, FICO, FIS, FE, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FCX, GIS, GS, GPRO, HSII, HP, HON, IDA, IPAR, JAZZ, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KSS, LB, LRCX, LNC, L, MTSI, M, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MTRN, MDCA, MU, MS, MLI, CNR, NTAP, NEU, JWN, NUS, PKE, PLXS, PFG, KWR, QCOM, RNG, ROK, ^GSPC, SEIC, SIGI, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SCCO, SWN, SCS, SUM, TDC, TKR, TJX, TSCO, VMI, VEEV, VRTX, VMC, WMT, WDAY, XEL, XLNX, IAI, IEO, IDU, DDM, FDN, FXL, FXI, ICF, IAT, IGV, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWP, EWL, EWT, PPA, DBA, PEJ, IEV, SSO, MXI, XRT, SPY, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,176.02    
 Weekly S2  13,838.40  662.37   
 Monthly S1  13,839.99  1.59   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Monthly Pivot  14,127.22  287.24   
 Weekly S1  14,171.17  43.95   
 Weekly Pivot  14,292.82  121.64   
 Daily S2  14,454.19  161.37   
 Low  14,478.06  23.87   
 Daily S1  14,479.07  1.01   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,496.68  17.61   
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,502.43  5.75   
 Daily Pivot  14,502.94  0.51   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  14,503.95  1.01   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,508.19  4.24   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  14,509.85  1.66   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  14,526.81  16.96   
 Daily R1  14,527.82  1.01   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  14,551.69  23.87   
 Weekly R1  14,625.59  73.90   
 Weekly R2  14,747.24  121.64   
 Monthly R1  14,791.19  43.95   
 Monthly R2  15,078.42  287.24   

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notice for paid links: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases."

My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book

Copyright © 2005-2024 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.
Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.
Home Advertise Contact Donate Privacy/Disclaimer