Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 02/28/2024
  Indus: 38,949 -23.39 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,706 -90.67 -0.6%  
  Utils: 841 -0.99 -0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 15,948 -87.56 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,070 -8.42 -0.2%  
YTD
 +3.3%  
-1.2%  
-4.6%  
 +6.2%  
 +6.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024
As of 02/28/2024
  Indus: 38,949 -23.39 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,706 -90.67 -0.6%  
  Utils: 841 -0.99 -0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 15,948 -87.56 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,070 -8.42 -0.2%  
YTD
 +3.3%  
-1.2%  
-4.6%  
 +6.2%  
 +6.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024

August 2023 Headlines

Archives


Thursday 8/31/23. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Review

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.5% or 75.55 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 584 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 394 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 190 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 67.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 261/463 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 73/154 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily scale.

I connected trends with red lines just to see what they showed.

At A, we see a falling wedge. It breaks out upward, as is usual for the pattern. I took some liberties drawing the bottom line at B by cutting through price and making the line look horizontal. The pattern forms a right-angled and ascending broadening formation.

At C, we see the currency taking a massive drop with a recovery (retrace) at D.

My expectation is that you'll see the currency drop back down from here for a while. In other words, I think the retrace of C is over.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 164 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AMD, AYX, AMED, AME, APH, ATR, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, AZTA, BKH, BRKR, CAL, CE, CRL, CTAS, CLNE, CTSH, CMCO, CR, CCRN, DVN, FANG, DOV, BOOM, EXP, EFX, FDS, FARO, FAST, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, FTV, FWRD, GIS, GFS, GMS, HIG, HTLD, HP, HOV, HUM, HUN, HURC, INFN, IBP, PODD, IBKR, ISRG, IRM, KBH, KEYS, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, LDOS, LEN, LLY, LOW, MTSI, MAS, MA, MTRX, MDC, META, MSFT, MCO, NBR, NFLX, NWL, NEE, NXGN, ON, OUT, PANW, PDCO, PTEN, PCTY, PYPL, PXD, PPG, RHI, RCKY, RGLD, SAND, SCHW, SMG, SEE, SIGI, SHOP, SR, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TRGP, TDOC, TTD, TJX, TOL, TG, TWLO, SLCA, UNM, VECO, V, WRB, WEX, WPM, WDAY, ZBRA, IYE, IHE, FXI, QQQ, IXC, MXI, SLV, IGE, IEO, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EIS, EWW, EPP, EZA, EWU, QLD, PPA, PBE, PHO, XLY, XLF, GLD, UNG, USO, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

I updated research on the best months to buy and sell.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,641.51    
 Weekly S2  13,217.43  575.92   
 Monthly S1  13,330.41  112.98   
 Weekly S1  13,618.37  287.96   
 Weekly Pivot  13,726.53  108.16   
 Monthly Pivot  13,850.66  124.13   
 Daily S2  13,871.49  20.83   
 Low  13,924.20  52.71   
 Daily S1  13,945.40  21.20   
 Open  13,961.77  16.37   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,972.57  10.80   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,987.51  14.94   
 Daily Pivot  13,998.11  10.60   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,002.45  4.34   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  14,019.31  16.86   
 High  14,050.82  31.51   
 Daily R1  14,072.02  21.20   
 Daily R2  14,124.73  52.71   
 Weekly R1  14,127.47  2.74   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  14,235.63  108.16   
 Monthly R1  14,539.56  303.93   
 Monthly R2  15,059.81  520.25   

Wednesday 8/30/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned from neutral to bullish with the presence of the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart. The index has begun the long-awaited recovery from the recent retrace.

Near the bottom of the chart, you can see the thin blue line poking out. It's at or near the top of the scale (100), so that's bullish.

In fact, the chart is bullish. What's the next chart say?

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 33% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 39%.
The fewest was 26% on 07/31/2023.
And the most was 78% on 09/26/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 522 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 19%.
The peak was 14% on 07/31/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both the red and blue lines are up this week from a week ago. That's an improvement. I'd say these lines are bullish, too, just like the prior chart.

With both charts bullish, I expect that the uptrend will continue.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, ACN, ACIW, ATVI, AME, APA, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, BMRN, BLDR, CBT, CDNS, CAL, CX, CDAY, CHD, CR, CRH, FANG, DSGR, BOOM, EXP, EMR, EFX, EQT, EVH, EZPW, FARO, FIVN, FORM, FWRD, GPS, GIS, GL, GMS, HSII, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, INTU, IRM, LHX, LH, LMT, MTSI, MGY, MTDR, META, MU, MCO, NBR, NFLX, NEE, NWPX, ON, OTEX, OUT, PCTY, PYPL, PEN, PRFT, PXD, QCOM, RRC, RGLD, SAND, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SHOP, SPSC, TJX, TREX, UGI, UNM, VEEV, WRB, WU, WEX, WPM, WDAY, IAI, IYE, FXI, IYZ, IGV, IXC, SLV, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWH, EWI, EPP, EZA, THD, QLD, PJP, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/29/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.6% or 213.08 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 895 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 505 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 390 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 56.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 270/490 or 55.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 51/108 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Broadening bottoms.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 83 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AFL, ALRM, AFG, ACGL, AWI, AVY, BMI, BSET, BECN, BZH, BSX, BRKR, CX, CNC, CHS, CIEN, CLNE, CONN, GLW, CSGS, CW, DHR, FANG, DDS, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EME, EZPW, FICO, FIVN, FDP, FRD, GS, HSII, HNI, INFN, IIIN, NVTA, LEG, LPLA, MCHX, MKTX, MDT, MRK, MU, MOS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NTGR, NWPX, NVDA, PXD, PGR, RGS, RHI, ROK, SLB, SKYW, TPX, TJX, TDG, TWLO, UNM, VECO, WRB, ITA, IYE, FXL, IYZ, IXC, EEM, EWY, TUR, PEJ, PJP, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  33,106.20    
 Weekly S2  33,762.50  656.30   
 Monthly S1  33,833.09  70.59   
 Weekly S1  34,161.24  328.15   
 Daily S2  34,340.24  179.00   
 Weekly Pivot  34,427.96  87.72   
 Low  34,441.64  13.68   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  34,441.64  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  34,450.11  8.47   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,522.34  72.23   
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,547.27  24.93   
 Daily Pivot  34,551.51  4.24   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  34,559.98  8.47   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,572.20  12.22   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  34,652.91  80.71   
 Daily R1  34,661.38  8.47   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Monthly Pivot  34,756.11  94.73   
 Daily R2  34,762.78  6.67   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  34,826.70  63.92   
 Weekly R2  35,093.42  266.72   
 Monthly R1  35,483.00  389.58   
 Monthly R2  36,406.02  923.02   

Monday 8/28/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

This is on the daily scale.

I drew two parallel red lines showing an up-sloping channel. The index is at the bottom of the channel so we can expect a rebound. I say that because the retrace from the prior upward rise, B to D, is due to happen.

However, the index could just as easily pierce the bottom channel line and continue lower. It's already poked it's tail through.

Chart pattern ABC is a confirmed double bottom. By confirmed, I mean the index has closed above C. Notice that the resulting climb to D exceeded the AC height added to C. That's the measure rule and it's a guide and not really a rule.

It allows us to assess the probabilities of the index climbing to the target (marginally below D in this case).

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 36.97 points.
Tuesday: Down 174.86 points.
Wednesday: Up 184.15 points.
Thursday: Down 373.56 points.
Friday: Up 247.48 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 153.76 points or 0.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 299.87 points or 2.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 36 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.7% down from the high of 35,679.13 on 08/01/2023.
     9.3% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     5.9% down from the high of 14,446.55 on 07/19/2023.
     32.4% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     4.4% down from the high of 4,607.07 on 07/27/2023.
     16.1% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,860  34,103  34,273  34,516  34,685 
Weekly  33,691  34,019  34,357  34,685  35,022 
Monthly  33,035  33,691  34,685  35,341  36,335 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,331  4,369  4,393  4,431  4,456 
Weekly  4,305  4,355  4,407  4,457  4,509 
Monthly  4,178  4,292  4,449  4,563  4,721 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,276  13,434  13,533  13,691  13,791 
Weekly  13,075  13,333  13,584  13,842  14,093 
Monthly  12,499  13,045  13,708  14,254  14,917 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 101 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ATVI, AYI, ALRM, AA, ALL, AXP, ANIK, AON, ACGL, ADP, AZTA, BZH, CAL, CNC, CNP, CI, GLW, CCK, CSGS, FANG, DDS, D, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, FARO, FMC, FCX, FRD, GFS, HE, HSIC, HUM, IDA, ITGR, INTU, KBH, KSS, LEG, LDOS, LNC, MKTX, MAS, MDC, META, MYGN, NFG, NCR, NTAP, NJR, NEU, NXGN, NTNX, NVDA, OLN, PNW, PXD, DGX, RHI, SEE, SCI, SHW, LUV, TKR, TWLO, UHAL, UNM, VECO, WRB, WERN, WPM, ITA, IYC, IYE, ITB, DDM, IAT, IEV, IXC, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EPP, EWL, TUR, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Internet3. Internet
4. Semiconductor4. Semiconductor
5. Cement and Aggregates5. Cement and Aggregates
6. E-Commerce6. Computer Software and Svcs
7. Computer Software and Svcs7. E-Commerce
8. Drug8. Drug
9. Industrial Services9. Shoe
10. Retail Building Supply10. Industrial Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Diversified)50. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
51. Human Resources51. Metal Fabricating
52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment52. Electric Utility (West)
53. Short ETFs53. Human Resources
54. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)54. Advertising
55. Food Processing55. Chemical (Diversified)
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Furn/Home Furnishings
57. Furn/Home Furnishings57. Securities Brokerage
58. Securities Brokerage58. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
59. Telecom. Equipment59. Toiletries/Cosmetics
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Telecom. Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/25/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 180 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, AKAM, ALRM, AMZN, AXP, AME, ANIK, AR, AMAT, ACGL, ANET, ARW, ADP, AZTA, BSET, BZH, BOOT, CAL, CDAY, CF, CRL, CHKP, CIEN, CTAS, CSCO, CGNX, CMTL, CRH, CCRN, DECK, XRAY, FANG, DDS, BOOM, EIX, EPAM, EZPW, FFIV, FICO, FAST, FTNT, FCX, GNW, GFS, GOOGL, HLIT, HSY, HOLX, JBHT, IEX, IDXX, ITGR, ISRG, NVTA, KALU, KEYS, KFRC, KMB, KLAC, KSS, KLIC, LRCX, RAMP, LXU, MHO, MANH, MCHX, MKTX, MA, MDC, META, MSFT, MYGN, ^IXIC, NXGN, NTNX, NVDA, OXY, OMCL, ASGN, ON, OTEX, ORCL, OUT, OXM, PANW, PKE, PCTY, PEN, PXD, PINC, PSTG, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, RGA, ROL, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SEIC, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SMAR, LUV, SPLK, SXI, SNPS, TDOC, TDC, TER, TXN, TTD, TJX, TWLO, VMI, VECO, VRSN, WRB, WOLF, WDAY, ZBRA, IYE, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, IGV, IXC, IXN, SOXX, EWO, EWT, THD, TUR, QLD, PBE, PJP, PHO, SSO, ROBO, XLY, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, UNG, USO, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/27/202308/10/2023Precision Instrument
AGOPipe top      07/31/202308/07/2023Insurance (Life)
AVNTFlag      08/16/202308/24/2023Chemical (Specialty)
BMIBroadening top      08/01/202308/18/2023Precision Instrument
CALDouble Top, Eve and Adam      08/07/202308/16/2023Shoe
CEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      07/27/202308/10/2023Chemical (Basic)
EZPWDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/24/202308/03/2023Financial Services
HQYTriangle, descending      07/05/202307/27/2023Healthcare Information
HUNHead-and-shoulders top      07/13/202308/10/2023Chemical (Specialty)
JNJDouble Top, Adam and Eve      07/28/202308/10/2023Medical Supplies
LZBPipe top      07/31/202308/07/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
LHTriangle, symmetrical      07/25/202308/24/2023Medical Services
MADouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      08/03/202308/18/2023Financial Services
MRKDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      07/17/202308/04/2023Drug
MRCYPipe bottom      08/07/202308/14/2023Computers and Peripherals
NVDAPipe bottom      08/07/202308/14/2023Semiconductor
OGEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/15/202308/21/2023Electric Utility (Central)
TECHPipe top      07/17/202307/24/2023Biotechnology
TPXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/27/202308/03/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
TOLBroadening top      07/21/202308/21/2023Homebuilding
WOLFHorn top      07/03/202307/17/2023Semiconductor

 

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Thursday 8/24/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.6% or 215.16 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 98 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 51 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 47 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 52.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 261/462 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 73/154 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At A, a V-bottom chart pattern appears. It's nicely shaped and quite wide. What else is there to say about it?

At B, a descending triangle appears. It has a nice shape, too, and the breakout is upward in this case. The resulting rise is steep and about what one would expect from a chart pattern (meaning it met the measure rule target of the pattern's height added to the top of the pattern).

At C, I drew a thin blue line to check what overhead resistance looked like. There's not much to see because the data doesn't go back far enough. From what I can see, though, it looks to stop price from rising for another day, but rarely do things on the intraday scale work as expected.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 126 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ANIK, AR, AAPL, ARCB, AGO, ATO, AXS, BMY, CAL, CX, CNC, CF, CIEN, CLNE, ED, CAG, CRH, DECK, FANG, DDS, BOOM, EMN, EVRG, FIS, FLEX, FNV, GMS, HLIT, HE, HOLX, HUN, PODD, INTC, KALU, LZB, LRCX, LANC, L, LXU, MKTX, MRTN, MTDR, MRK, MRCY, MOS, MYGN, NFG, NFLX, NJR, NXGN, NKE, NOVT, NTNX, NVDA, OMCL, OR, PCG, PXD, PINC, PSTG, RMBS, RRC, RGS, RCKY, ROL, RGLD, RES, SAND, SEIC, SMTC, SCI, STR, SWN, SXI, TGT, TDY, TER, TXN, TTD, TMO, TWLO, UHAL, VMI, VECO, VC, WRB, WPM, WSM, IAI, IYC, IYE, QTEC, ICF, IAT, IXC, ILF, SLV, EWO, EWZ, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWD, EWL, EWT, IBB, XLY, XRT, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,491.66    
 Weekly S2  12,929.92  438.26   
 Monthly S1  13,106.34  176.43   
 Weekly S1  13,325.47  219.13   
 Daily S2  13,445.58  120.11   
 Low  13,532.43  86.85   
 Open  13,532.43  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  13,557.32  24.89   
 Daily S1  13,583.31  25.99   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,618.22  34.91   
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,644.71  26.50   
 Daily Pivot  13,670.15  25.44   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,671.21  1.06   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  13,721.03  49.82   
 High  13,757.00  35.97   
 Monthly Pivot  13,776.45  19.45   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  13,807.88  31.43   
 Daily R2  13,894.72  86.85   
 Weekly R1  13,952.87  58.15   
 Weekly R2  14,184.72  231.84   
 Monthly R1  14,391.13  206.42   
 Monthly R2  15,061.24  670.10   

Wednesday 8/23/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI, as the chart shows, is still bearish. The red vertical bar on the far right of the chart illustrates this.

Look at the indicator line. It's hovering near the low, isn't it? It's unusual for the indicator to stay near 0 for long, so expect this retrace we've been having to end soon.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 39% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 35%.
The fewest was 26% on 07/31/2023.
And the most was 78% on 09/26/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 522 stocks in my database are down an average of 19% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 14% on 07/31/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both lines are worse this week when compared to last week. By worse, I mean more bearish. However, they both follow the indices in lock-step, suggesting these two lines are worthless as indicators.

Both charts are bearish this week. The prior chart shows a minor retrace of two day's length losing steam but the bigger retrace from the July peak is near its end, I think.

The red line on this chart may find support from prior peaks or valleys but I don't know if the indicator cares about that or not. I expect not.

I'm looking for the retrace to end soon, perhaps sometime this week...

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 127 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AMD, ATSG, ALK, AXP, AIG, AR, ATR, ARCB, AGO, AVY, AXS, BBY, BMRN, BG, CAL, CMCO, FANG, DDS, DRQ, BOOM, EMR, EPAM, FFIV, FORM, GME, GIS, GPRO, GES, HLIT, HIG, HL, HON, JBHT, ITGR, IBKR, NVTA, IRM, JNJ, KEYS, KMB, LZB, L, M, MCHX, MKTX, MTDR, MTRN, MRK, MU, MYGN, NBR, NFG, NXGN, NKE, JWN, NVDA, OLN, OMCL, PANW, PKE, PAYX, PXD, PRU, KWR, QCOM, RCKY, ROG, ROL, SRE, SMTC, LUV, SWN, SXI, SRDX, TGT, TDOC, TEVA, TMO, TKR, TSCO, TWLO, UPS, VFC, VECO, WRB, WERN, WU, WMB, WOLF, IAI, IYE, BOTZ, IAT, IEV, IXC, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWL, THD, EWU, DBA, ROBO, XRT, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/22/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -36.97 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1379 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 720 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 659 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 269/488 or 55.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 51/108 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Universal American Financial: UHCO stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ATSG, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, AMAT, ARCB, AGO, AVNT, AZTA, BCPC, BZH, BKH, BKNG, BRC, BG, CNP, CENX, CHKP, CNO, COTY, CROX, CCRN, DVN, FANG, DSGR, DRQ, BOOM, EIX, ELV, EQT, FIS, FISV, FWRD, FCX, IT, GIS, GNW, GS, HBI, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HL, HNI, HURC, IIIN, INTC, IBKR, TILE, KBH, KLAC, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LRCX, LAMR, LEG, LEN, L, LPLA, MRO, MAS, MLKN, MOS, MYGN, NKE, OMCL, ASGN, ORCL, OR, OMI, OXM, PKG, PYPL, PXD, PINC, PFG, PRU, PHM, PSTG, QTWO, REGN, RGA, RLI, RHI, RGLD, SEE, SMTC, STR, LUV, SWX, SWN, SPSC, SCS, SUM, TPX, TDC, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, UIS, UNM, MDRX, VRTX, WRB, WMB, WSC, IAI, IYE, DDM, IAT, IXC, SLV, IYF, EWH, TUR, IBB, DBA, PBE, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  33,386.06    
 Weekly S2  33,615.18  229.12   
 Monthly S1  33,924.88  309.69   
 Weekly S1  34,039.44  114.56   
 Daily S2  34,105.20  65.77   
 Low  34,248.46  143.26   
 Daily S1  34,284.45  35.98   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,371.66  87.21   
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,409.71  38.05   
 Daily Pivot  34,427.70  17.99   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,447.77  20.06   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  34,463.69  15.93   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  34,531.28  67.59   
 High  34,570.96  39.68   
 Daily R1  34,606.95  35.98   
 Weekly Pivot  34,687.44  80.50   
 Daily R2  34,750.20  62.76   
 Monthly Pivot  34,802.00  51.80   
 Weekly R1  35,111.70  309.69   
 Monthly R1  35,340.82  229.12   
 Weekly R2  35,759.70  418.89   
 Monthly R2  36,217.94  458.24   

Monday 8/21/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I circled knots that may act as support when (or if) the index reaches them.

The first one is at A. We're almost there. Maybe Monday will see the end of the retrace. That's my guess, anyway.

If that one doesn't hold, then I expect B to be the next possible turning point.

If this chart was of an individual stock, I'd be more confident in the turn prediction. However, the index is an average of stocks so it's harder to predict the turns.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 26.23 points.
Tuesday: Down 361.24 points.
Wednesday: Down 180.65 points.
Thursday: Down 290.91 points.
Friday: Up 25.83 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 780.74 points or 2.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 354.07 points or 2.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 94.34 points or 2.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     3.3% down from the high of 35,679.13 on 08/01/2023.
     9.8% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     8.0% down from the high of 14,446.55 on 07/19/2023.
     29.5% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     5.2% down from the high of 4,607.07 on 07/27/2023.
     15.2% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,126  34,314  34,450  34,637  34,774 
Weekly  33,628  34,064  34,700  35,136  35,772 
Monthly  33,398  33,950  34,814  35,365  36,230 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,316  4,343  4,362  4,389  4,409 
Weekly  4,243  4,307  4,398  4,462  4,553 
Monthly  4,166  4,268  4,437  4,539  4,709 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,089  13,190  13,263  13,364  13,437 
Weekly  12,787  13,039  13,414  13,666  14,041 
Monthly  12,348  12,820  13,633  14,104  14,918 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 168 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ANF, AXDX, ADBE, ALB, ALKS, AXP, AIG, AON, ATR, AGO, ATO, AXS, BZH, BKNG, BRC, BCO, CALM, CHS, COP, CRH, CCRN, DVN, FANG, DSGR, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, ECL, EIX, WIRE, EQT, EVRG, FIS, FLEX, FORM, FTV, FNV, FCX, GE, GILD, GFS, GOOGL, GFF, HIG, HSII, ITGR, TILE, JAZZ, KEYS, LZB, LAMR, LLY, LNC, MGY, MRO, MCHX, MA, MCO, NCR, NFLX, NTAP, NEWR, ORI, OMCL, ASGN, OR, OMI, PKG, PXD, PLXS, PPG, PRU, PEG, RJF, RGA, RNG, RHI, ROST, RGLD, SEE, SEIC, SMTC, LUV, SWX, SRDX, TRGP, TDY, TDC, TEVA, SLCA, UIS, UNM, VMC, WRB, WSO, WERN, WU, WSM, WOLF, ZBRA, IAI, IYC, IYE, IHE, DDM, FTEC, FXL, FXI, IAT, IEV, IXC, MXI, IXN, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EIS, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWU, QLD, PBE, SSO, XLI, XLB, XRT, UNG, USO, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Internet
3. Internet3. Cement and Aggregates
4. Semiconductor4. Semiconductor
5. Cement and Aggregates5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
6. Computer Software and Svcs6. Retail Building Supply
7. E-Commerce7. E-Commerce
8. Drug8. Computer Software and Svcs
9. Shoe9. Industrial Services
10. Industrial Services10. Shoe
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)50. Advertising
51. Metal Fabricating51. Natural Gas (Distributor)
52. Electric Utility (West)52. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
53. Human Resources53. Metal Fabricating
54. Advertising54. Human Resources
55. Chemical (Diversified)55. Chemical (Diversified)
56. Furn/Home Furnishings56. Short ETFs
57. Securities Brokerage57. Toiletries/Cosmetics
58. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment58. Securities Brokerage
59. Toiletries/Cosmetics59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Telecom. Equipment60. Telecom. Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/18/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 166 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: A, APD, ALKS, AMED, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMN, ACGL, AGO, AXS, BALL, BZH, BERY, BBY, BIG, BKNG, BAH, BRC, BR, BRKR, CLS, CX, CNC, CRL, CI, CINF, CNA, CRH, CCK, DECK, DVN, FANG, DFS, DSGR, ^DJU, BOOM, EXP, ECL, EIX, EFX, EG, EVRG, EVH, XOM, FFIV, FLEX, FORM, FNV, GD, GL, GPRO, THG, HIG, HE, HSIC, HD, HWM, PODD, ITGR, INTC, KBH, LHX, LZB, RAMP, L, MRO, MCHX, MA, MRCY, MU, MLKN, MS, NFLX, NTGR, NEWR, NEU, NKE, OMCL, ASGN, OTEX, OR, OUT, OMI, PANW, PYPL, PCG, PXD, PRU, QTWO, KWR, RGLD, CRM, SHOP, SMAR, SWX, SWN, TECH, TRV, UHAL, UNM, VMI, VECO, WRB, WAT, WEX, WPM, WOLF, XEL, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IHF, IAT, IEV, IXC, IXN, IYF, EWK, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWL, THD, EWU, SSO, ROBO, XLF, XLI, XLB, XRT, XAR, XLU, USO, VHT, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ACNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/19/202307/27/2023IT Services
ALKSDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      08/03/202308/10/2023Drug
ADMDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/26/202308/07/2023Food Processing
AWIDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/26/202308/07/2023Building Materials
BADouble Top, Adam and Eve      08/01/202308/10/2023Aerospace/Defense
CIDiamond top      07/19/202308/16/2023Medical Services
COSTDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/27/202308/10/2023Retail Store
CCKPipe top      07/24/202307/31/2023Packaging and Container
DRQTriangle, symmetrical      08/01/202308/17/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
EOGDiamond top      07/27/202308/17/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
EXPIDouble Top, Adam and Eve      07/13/202308/01/2023E-Commerce
EZPWDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/24/202308/03/2023Financial Services
FDXTriangle, symmetrical      07/31/202308/17/2023Air Transport
FORMDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/13/202307/31/2023Semiconductor
HEDead-cat bounce      08/14/202308/14/2023Electric Utility (West)
ILMNTriple top      07/13/202308/10/2023Biotechnology
JKHYDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/25/202308/10/2023IT Services
RAMPTriple bottom      07/07/202308/09/2023Computer Software and Svcs
MDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/12/202307/27/2023Retail Store
MLMMulti-peaks      06/30/202308/15/2023Cement and Aggregates
NTNXTriangle, ascending      06/02/202308/15/2023E-Commerce
PANWDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/05/202308/01/2023Computer Software and Svcs
PKETriple top      07/18/202308/04/2023Chemical (Specialty)
PGRUgly double bottom      07/14/202308/15/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
KWRDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/11/202308/01/2023Chemical (Specialty)
RLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/12/202308/04/2023Apparel
SKXHead-and-shoulders top      07/20/202308/10/2023Shoe
TKRTriple top      07/12/202308/01/2023Metal Fabricating
TREXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      08/02/202308/10/2023Building Materials
SLCAHorn top      07/10/202307/24/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
WEXDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/27/202308/10/2023Information Services
WPMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/26/202308/11/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
WOLFDead-cat bounce      08/17/202308/17/2023Semiconductor
SOXXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/18/202308/01/2023Semiconductor

 

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Thursday 8/17/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.1% or -156.42 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 178 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.3% on 90 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 88 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 261/461 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 73/154 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of Ethereum on the daily scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of Ethereum (ETH-USD) on the daily scale scale.

The blue lines show a broadening bottom chart pattern. It broke out downward and the cryptocurrency dropped to A (after completing a nice partial rise).

AB is another chart pattern that I call an ugly double bottom. It's a double bottom except the second bottom is above the first so the two are not at equal prices (as they are in a traditional double bottom).

It confirms at C when the coin closes above the top of the pattern.

More recently, the currency has slid lower. I don't see anything that would change the trajectory. However, there's support located just below the bottom of letter B in mid May to early June, setup by valleys near the same price (pink line).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 177 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: A, ALK, AMED, AEE, AXP, AFG, AIG, AME, AMN, ACGL, AGO, ADSK, AVNT, AXS, BALL, BAX, BECN, BERY, BIG, BA, BAH, CAL, CPB, CE, CX, CENX, CRL, CLNE, CNO, XRAY, DVN, FANG, DFS, BOOM, EMN, EBAY, EVH, EXC, FIS, FLEX, FORM, FWRD, FDP, GS, HOV, HUN, IDXX, ITW, INFN, PODD, ITGR, KBH, KLIC, LZB, RAMP, LMT, LOW, MANH, MCHX, MKTX, MRCY, MU, MLKN, MS, MYGN, NFLX, NEWR, NEU, NEE, JWN, NOC, NWPX, OMCL, ASGN, OR, PKG, PAYX, PXD, PPG, PPL, PGR, PEG, PSTG, RRC, RGS, ROK, ROST, RGLD, SBH, SLB, SCHW, SMTC, SHOP, SLGN, SO, SWN, TPR, TGT, TXT, TMO, TJX, TSCO, TZOO, UNH, UNM, VLO, WRB, WAT, WEX, WPM, WMB, WDAY, ITA, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, ITB, IHE, DDM, FXI, ICF, IAT, IXC, IXN, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWL, THD, EWU, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PHO, SSO, ROBO, XLI, XLB, UNG, USO, VIS, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,973.67    
 Monthly S1  13,224.15  250.48   
 Weekly S2  13,306.75  82.60   
 Daily S2  13,359.37  52.62   
 Weekly S1  13,390.69  31.32   
 Daily S1  13,417.00  26.31   
 Low  13,473.03  56.03   
 Close  13,474.63  1.60   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  13,530.66  56.03   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,538.46  7.80   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,558.67  20.21   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,578.89  20.21   
 Daily R1  13,588.29  9.40   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  13,593.17  4.88   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  13,644.32  51.15   
 Weekly Pivot  13,693.92  49.60   
 Daily R2  13,701.95  8.03   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  13,777.86  75.91   
 Monthly Pivot  13,835.35  57.49   
 Weekly R2  14,081.09  245.74   
 Monthly R1  14,085.83  4.74   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  14,697.03  611.20   

Wednesday 8/16/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The trend of the chart is downward starting from the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart. It's bearish, in other words.

What's worse is the indicator line shown here in blue near the bottom of the chart. It's trending down, too. If what Reuters said about today's (Tuesday's) move is true (worries about rising interest rates because of strong retail sales), this will be a short move lower. So I expect a quick rebound.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 35% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 30%.
The fewest was 26% on 07/31/2023.
And the most was 78% on 09/26/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 522 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 14% on 07/31/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

The more sensitive of the two lines, the red one, turned down at the start of August. It has been following the index lower. Both the red and blue lines are lower this week compared to a week ago, so that's bearish.

This chart is bearish and so is the prior one. We were overdue for a retrace and it's begun. My gut says it'll be short lived as I explained in the prior chart. So I'm expecting a nice rebound.

I guess when earnings begin to arrive, it'll give the markets more to stress about.

$ $ $

I added a minor enhancement to Patternz's Simulator Form (setup button). The simulator can stop after a percentage move, so you can practice buying-the-dip, bottom fishing, or looking for a trend change.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 178 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, AES, ALK, ALGT, ALL, AMED, AEE, AEP, AIG, APOG, ANET, ASH, AGO, ADSK, AVNT, BALL, BAX, BERY, BKH, BA, BRC, BFH, CPB, CE, CHS, CINF, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CNO, CMCO, ED, CMI, XRAY, FANG, DFS, DTE, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EBAY, EL, EVRG, FARO, FLEX, FORM, FWRD, FRD, GNW, GL, GS, GPRO, THG, HIG, HE, HTLD, HP, HUN, INFN, IIIN, KBH, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LMT, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MA, MRCY, MS, NBR, NFG, NJR, NEWR, NEE, NKE, NI, JWN, NOC, NVDA, ASGN, OR, PKG, PXD, POR, PPL, PG, PEG, RGLD, SAIA, SBH, SCHW, SEIC, SO, LUV, SWN, TGT, TZOO, UNH, UNM, WRB, WMT, WERN, WMB, WDAY, ITA, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IDU, DDM, ICF, IAT, IEV, IXC, MXI, ILF, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, THD, EWU, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, SSO, XLF, XLI, XLB, XAR, XLU, USO, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/15/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.1% or 26.23 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1398 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 719 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 679 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 51.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 269/487 or 55.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 51/108 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring UNUM Provident: UNUM stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 164 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, AFL, ALRM, ALK, ALB, ALGT, ALL, DOX, AEE, AXP, AIG, AON, ANET, ARW, AIZ, ATO, AVNT, BMI, BALL, BAX, BKH, CAL, CX, CENX, CF, CINF, CLX, CNA, CTSH, CL, CMCO, CAG, CONN, CCK, DHR, FANG, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EPAM, EVRG, FFIV, FORM, FWRD, FDP, GIS, GGG, GES, THG, HE, HTLD, HSII, HP, HSY, HUBG, HUN, IDA, IBP, IIIN, INTC, INTU, KBH, KELYA, KMT, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LH, LEG, LMT, MRCY, MGEE, NBR, NFLX, NJR, NEWR, NOC, NWPX, OR, PEN, PFE, PXD, PG, PHM, QTWO, REGN, RGS, ROST, SBH, SCHW, SMG, SIGI, SMTC, SHOP, TECH, TDOC, TZOO, UPS, VECO, VRSN, WRB, WMT, WMB, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IAI, IYC, IYE, IHE, FXL, IHF, IAT, IXC, MXI, IXN, ILF, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, DBA, PXJ, XLP, XLB, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,924.03    
 Monthly S1  34,115.83  1,191.80   
 Weekly S2  34,726.70  610.88   
 Monthly Pivot  34,897.48  170.78   
 Weekly S1  35,017.17  119.69   
 Daily S2  35,105.54  88.37   
 Low  35,169.97  64.43   
 Daily S1  35,206.58  36.61   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  35,233.18  26.60   
 50% Down from Intraday High  35,252.71  19.53   
 Daily Pivot  35,271.02  18.30   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,272.24  1.22   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  35,273.89  1.65   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  35,297.88  23.98   
 Close  35,307.63  9.75   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  35,335.45  27.82   
 Daily R1  35,372.06  36.61   
 Daily R2  35,436.50  64.43   
 Weekly R1  35,588.34  151.84   
 Weekly R2  35,869.04  280.71   
 Monthly R1  36,089.28  220.24   
 Monthly R2  36,870.93  781.65   

Monday 8/14/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I don't see any good patterns to highlight. I drew a line of support which I hope will stop the decline.

In the middle of the chart is another red line, one showing modest resistance/support. The bottom line appears to be supporting the index but the middle one might not work as well as expected.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 407.51 points.
Tuesday: Down 158.64 points.
Wednesday: Down 191.13 points.
Thursday: Up 52.79 points.
Friday: Up 105.25 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 215.78 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 264.39 points or 1.9%.
The S&P 500 index was down 13.98 points or 0.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.1% down from the high of 35,679.13 on 08/01/2023.
     12.3% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     5.5% down from the high of 14,446.55 on 07/19/2023.
     32.9% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     3.1% down from the high of 4,607.07 on 07/27/2023.
     17.7% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,937  35,109  35,232  35,404  35,527 
Weekly  34,718  35,000  35,289  35,571  35,860 
Monthly  32,915  34,098  34,889  36,072  36,862 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,429  4,447  4,461  4,479  4,494 
Weekly  4,395  4,430  4,478  4,513  4,562 
Monthly  4,270  4,367  4,487  4,584  4,704 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,548  13,596  13,658  13,707  13,769 
Weekly  13,363  13,504  13,751  13,891  14,138 
Monthly  13,030  13,338  13,892  14,199  14,754 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 126 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AMD, APD, ALK, ALB, AA, ALL, ABC, APA, ANET, ADP, AVA, AXS, BALL, BZH, BRC, CX, CENX, CF, CSCO, CNX, CMCO, CCK, FANG, DFS, ^DJI, EPAM, FWRD, FNV, GNW, GFS, GL, HIG, HTLD, HSII, HELE, HD, HUM, IEX, IDXX, INTC, IBKR, IPI, NVTA, JAZZ, KBH, KLIC, LH, MAN, MRO, NCR, NFLX, NJR, NEWR, NXGN, NUS, OMCL, ON, OTEX, PANW, PDCO, PXD, PINC, PFG, QTWO, REGN, RGS, ROG, SBH, SAND, SLB, SEE, SIGI, SMTC, SHOP, SMAR, TDOC, TEVA, TZOO, UHAL, UIS, UPS, UNM, MDRX, WRB, WPM, ZBRA, IAI, IYE, IEZ, IHE, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IXC, MXI, IXN, SOXX, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWH, EWM, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, IBB, PXJ, PJP, SSO, XLE, XLV, USO, SMH, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Internet2. Semiconductor
3. Cement and Aggregates3. Cement and Aggregates
4. Semiconductor4. Internet
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
6. Retail Building Supply6. E-Commerce
7. E-Commerce7. Computer Software and Svcs
8. Computer Software and Svcs8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
9. Industrial Services9. Industrial Services
10. Shoe10. Shoe
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Advertising50. Metal Fabricating
51. Natural Gas (Distributor)51. Natural Gas (Distributor)
52. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)52. Electric Utility (West)
53. Metal Fabricating53. Electric Utility (East)
54. Human Resources54. Furn/Home Furnishings
55. Chemical (Diversified)55. Securities Brokerage
56. Short ETFs56. Chemical (Diversified)
57. Toiletries/Cosmetics57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
58. Securities Brokerage58. Toiletries/Cosmetics
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Human Resources
60. Telecom. Equipment60. Telecom. Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/11/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AA, ALKS, AEL, AME, ARCB, ANET, AGO, AVA, BALL, BECN, BERY, CAL, CX, CNP, CF, CIEN, CINF, CTAS, CLX, CTSH, CL, CMCO, ED, CCK, CMI, FANG, DDS, DFS, DSGR, ^DJU, DTE, EXP, EIX, WIRE, EPAM, EL, EVRG, FAST, FIS, FORM, FWRD, GNW, GPN, GFF, HTLD, HSII, HSY, HUBG, HURC, IDXX, ILMN, INTC, TILE, INTU, JAZZ, JNJ, KBH, KLIC, LZB, LEG, RAMP, MAN, MKTX, MOS, NOV, NJR, NEWR, NEE, OMC, OR, PKE, PDCO, PXD, POR, PPL, PG, PGR, PHM, QTWO, RMBS, REGN, RGS, SBH, SIGI, SRE, SMTC, SMAR, TPR, TDOC, TPX, TJX, RIG, TZOO, UHAL, UGI, VLO, VMI, VEEV, WRB, WLK, WWW, XEL, ITA, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IDU, IYZ, IGV, IXC, IXN, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWJ, EWM, PPA, PXJ, ROBO, XLP, XLV, XLU, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
MMMPipe top      07/24/202307/31/2023Diversified Co.
ADTNDead-cat bounce      08/07/202308/07/2023Telecom. Equipment
ALRMDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/18/202307/28/2023Computer Software and Svcs
AYXDead-cat bounce      08/08/202308/08/2023Computer Software and Svcs
ACGLPipe top      07/17/202307/24/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CRLBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      06/16/202308/04/2023Biotechnology
CTSTriple bottom      06/28/202307/25/2023Electronics
FANGRounding bottom      04/14/202308/03/2023Petroleum (Producing)
DSGRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/21/202307/31/2023Metal Fabricating
EBAYPipe top      07/17/202307/24/2023Internet
FTNTDead-cat bounce      08/04/202308/04/2023Computer Software and Svcs
GPSHead-and-shoulders bottom      03/23/202306/28/2023Apparel
HTLDPipe top      07/24/202307/31/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HOVTriangle, symmetrical      07/17/202308/10/2023Homebuilding
INCYTriple bottom      06/01/202306/29/2023Drug
IBKRThree Rising Valleys      05/24/202307/20/2023Securities Brokerage
JAZZUgly double bottom      07/07/202308/02/2023Biotechnology
KLICMulti-peaks      06/14/202308/01/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RAMPHead-and-shoulders top      07/03/202308/01/2023Computer Software and Svcs
MGYCup with handle      04/17/202308/10/2023Petroleum (Producing)
^IXICDouble Top, Adam and Eve      07/19/202307/31/2023None
NTGRBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      05/15/202307/27/2023Telecom. Equipment
NTAPHead-and-shoulders top      07/12/202308/02/2023Computers and Peripherals
OUTDead-cat bounce      08/04/202308/04/2023Advertising
QCOMUgly double bottom      05/25/202306/23/2023Telecom. Equipment
SLBCup with handle      02/14/202308/09/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TDCDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/19/202308/01/2023Computer Software and Svcs
TTDDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/17/202307/31/2023Advertising
TGDead-cat bounce      08/09/202308/09/2023Chemical (Specialty)
VEEVHead-and-shoulders top      06/21/202307/31/2023Healthcare Information
VCTriple top      07/12/202308/03/2023Electronics
WWWDead-cat bounce      08/10/202308/10/2023Shoe
MGKDouble Top, Adam and Eve      07/19/202307/27/2023None
VONGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      07/19/202307/27/2023None

 

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Thursday 8/10/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.2% or -162.3 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 133 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.3% on 58 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 75 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 56.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 261/461 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 73/153 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I noticed one thing after I looked at this chart. Price tumbled.

So I drew a few trendlines that became channels, shown here as two sets of parallel red lines. The first pair is horizontal and even though price cuts through the lines, it shows a flat trend.

The second channel shows a down-sloping channel. The index has bounced off the top of the channel, suggesting a trip to the other side. It's halfway across now.

My guess? We'll see an upward rebound tomorrow (Thursday).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 177 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ATVI, AMD, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, ALKS, AYX, AMED, AXP, AME, AMN, ANIK, AR, APA, AAPL, ADM, ANET, AVNT, AZTA, BALL, BERY, BIG, BR, BLDR, CLS, CHKP, CHS, CIEN, CNA, CTSH, CMTL, GLW, CCK, DECK, FANG, EXP, EMR, WIRE, EPAM, EQT, EL, EVH, EXPI, FFIV, FIVN, FMC, FORM, FCX, GME, GS, GOOGL, HLIT, HE, HTLD, HSII, HNI, HWM, HUN, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, PODD, ITGR, INTC, INTU, NVTA, JAZZ, KLIC, LH, LRCX, RAMP, LPLA, MRO, MRCY, MU, MS, MOS, ^IXIC, NFG, NEWR, JWN, NVDA, OMCL, ON, ORCL, PAYX, PEN, PXD, PLXS, PFG, PG, QTWO, KWR, RMBS, RRC, REGN, RGS, RNG, RLI, ROST, ^GSPC, CRM, SLB, SMG, SEE, SRE, SMTC, SHOP, SMAR, SWX, SWN, SPLK, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TDC, TJX, TDG, TRV, TZOO, TG, TWLO, UHAL, UNM, VMC, WRB, WMB, WSM, IYC, IYE, ITB, IDU, FDN, BOTZ, IYZ, IXC, SOXX, SLV, IEO, IHI, EWM, EZA, TUR, IBB, DBA, PXJ, PHO, SSO, ROBO, XLY, XLV, XRT, SPY, XLU, UNG, USO, SMH, VIS, VAW, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,032.64    
 Monthly S1  13,377.33  344.69   
 Weekly S2  13,501.87  124.54   
 Daily S2  13,572.83  70.97   
 Weekly S1  13,611.94  39.11   
 Daily S1  13,647.43  35.48   
 Low  13,698.39  50.96   
 Close  13,722.02  23.63   
 Daily Pivot  13,772.98  50.96   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,774.85  1.86   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,798.46  23.62   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,822.08  23.62   
 Daily R1  13,847.58  25.49   
 Open  13,897.61  50.03   
 High  13,898.54  0.93   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  13,911.94  13.40   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R2  13,973.13  61.19   
 Weekly Pivot  13,991.43  18.29   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R1  14,101.50  110.08   
 Monthly R1  14,256.63  155.13   
 Weekly R2  14,480.99  224.36   
 Monthly R2  14,791.24  310.25   

Wednesday 8/9/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

We are clearly in a retrace of the uptrend that began in March, or maybe May, or maybe June. Hard to tell because the retrace isn't very large yet. Often the size of the retrace is a function of the prior rise. I studied that and found...it wasn't true. Sigh. Never mind.

The CPI, with its red bar on the far right of the chart suggests the downtrend will continue. It makes me wonder what September will be like (the worst performing month of the year for the Dow industrials and S&P).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 30% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 28%.
The fewest was 26% on 07/31/2023.
And the most was 78% on 09/26/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 522 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 14% on 07/31/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both lines (red and blue) this week are lower than they were a week ago. Unfortunately, this chart doesn't give much of a clue about anything else, at least not that I could find.

The prior chart is bearish but it wouldn't surprise me to see a snap-back rally. This chart is bearish, too.

I'd like to say that the two bearish charts suggest more of a downward move coming but a little voice inside my head says that's not going to happen this time. Maybe we'll see a big move higher instead.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 187 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, ANF, ALRM, ALK, AYX, AXP, AMGN, AMN, AR, AON, ANET, AIZ, ATO, AVNT, BALL, BAX, BERY, BBY, BBW, CIEN, CLF, CNX, CL, CMCO, COP, CXW, GLW, CCRN, CCK, DVN, FANG, DDS, DSGR, D, EMN, EPAM, EQT, EL, EXPI, FIS, FIVN, FMC, FCX, GPS, GPN, HLIT, HE, HAYN, HTLD, HL, HSII, HSY, HUN, INFN, PODD, INTC, ISRG, JAZZ, KALU, K, KMB, KLIC, LH, LLY, RAMP, LOW, MRO, MKTX, MDT, MS, MLI, NJR, NEWR, NWL, NOVT, ORCL, PANW, PKE, PATK, PEN, PETS, PXD, PPL, PINC, PHM, QTWO, DGX, RGS, RNG, RHI, RGLD, CRM, SMG, SEE, STR, SKX, SPLK, SNPS, TGT, TDOC, TDC, TEVA, TDG, TRV, UHAL, UGI, UPS, VFC, WRB, WU, WMB, WWW, IYM, IAI, IYE, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IYZ, IGV, IXC, MXI, IXN, SOXX, SLV, IGE, IEO, IHI, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, THD, IBB, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, XLE, XLV, XLB, UNG, SMH, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/8/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 1.2% or 407.51 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 321 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 176 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 145 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 269/486 or 55.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 51/108 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring United Parcel Service: UPS stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 118 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ADTN, ALRM, ALK, AMED, AEP, AEL, AFG, AME, ANIK, AAPL, ACGL, AVNT, BAX, BZH, BIIB, BKH, BOOT, BRC, CACI, CNC, CDAY, CHKP, CHD, CI, CMCO, CROX, CW, FANG, DSGR, DOV, DRQ, EBAY, EOG, EG, FAST, FLEX, GPS, GNW, GPRO, HBI, HLIT, HL, HELE, HSIC, HSY, HUBG, HURC, IIIN, IPG, INTU, JAZZ, KFRC, LH, LOW, LXU, MHO, MRO, MKTX, MRTN, MTRX, MRK, MYGN, NEWR, NWL, NOVT, ASGN, OR, OMI, PANW, PATK, PTEN, PYPL, PCG, PXD, PFG, RGS, SCHW, SXI, TRGP, TECH, TFX, SLCA, UPS, VFC, WRB, WMT, WAT, WLK, WWW, IYM, IYK, IEZ, DDM, ICF, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWY, TUR, IBB, PXJ, PJP, UNG, VHT, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,979.20    
 Monthly S1  34,226.16  1,246.97   
 Weekly S2  34,749.97  523.80   
 Monthly Pivot  34,952.65  202.68   
 Daily S2  34,993.59  40.94   
 Weekly S1  35,111.55  117.96   
 Low  35,125.60  14.05   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open  35,125.60  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  35,233.36  107.76   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  35,267.62  34.26   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  35,311.49  43.87   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,355.36  43.87   
 Daily Pivot  35,365.37  10.01   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  35,395.34  29.97   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  35,473.13  77.79   
 High  35,497.38  24.25   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  35,605.14  107.76   
 Daily R2  35,737.15  132.01   
 Weekly R1  35,756.92  19.77   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  36,040.71  283.79   
 Monthly R1  36,199.61  158.90   
 Monthly R2  36,926.10  726.48   

Monday 8/7/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

Nothing shows on the chart that's alarming. I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

I drew two up-sloping trendlines along the peaks and valleys. What the resulting channel shows is that price bounces between the two lines.

Going forward, if the trend continues, you'll see the index bounce off the lower trendline at A and bounce up to B. However, given the weakness in the markets, we could see it breakout downward from the channel.

I don't think that's going to happen. Rather, I expect the retrace to finish and then a new upward move resume.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 100.24 points.
Tuesday: Up 71.15 points.
Wednesday: Down 348.16 points.
Thursday: Down 66.63 points.
Friday: Down 150.27 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 393.67 points or 1.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 407.42 points or 2.8%.
The S&P 500 index was down 104.2 points or 2.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.7% down from the high of 35,679.13 on 08/01/2023.
     11.6% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     3.7% down from the high of 14,446.55 on 07/19/2023.
     35.5% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     2.8% down from the high of 4,607.07 on 07/27/2023.
     18.0% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,729  34,897  35,202  35,370  35,675 
Weekly  34,614  34,840  35,260  35,485  35,905 
Monthly  32,843  33,954  34,817  35,928  36,790 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,432  4,455  4,498  4,521  4,563 
Weekly  4,396  4,437  4,516  4,557  4,635 
Monthly  4,268  4,373  4,490  4,595  4,712 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,754  13,832  13,975  14,053  14,197 
Weekly  13,564  13,737  14,054  14,226  14,543 
Monthly  13,095  13,502  13,974  14,381  14,854 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

Top

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 167 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AEIS, AES, APD, ALRM, AA, AEP, AXP, AFG, AMN, AAPL, ACGL, ADM, ARW, ADP, AVNT, BAX, BECN, BBY, BOOT, BAH, BRC, BRKR, BBW, CBT, CNC, CHKP, CI, CMCO, ED, COP, COST, COTY, CRH, CCRN, CMI, FANG, DDS, DSGR, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DRQ, EBAY, EOG, EXPD, FICO, FARO, FAST, FTNT, FTV, IT, GILD, GPRO, GGG, HAYN, HELE, HSY, HUBG, HUN, IIIN, ISRG, JBLU, KBH, KFRC, LAMR, LEN, LMT, LOW, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MKTX, MRK, MS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NTAP, NEWR, NKE, NOVT, OXY, OMCL, ASGN, ORCL, OUT, OMI, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PCTY, PYPL, PXD, PPL, PINC, PFG, PG, PGR, QTWO, QCOM, RGA, ROP, ^GSPC, CRM, SLB, SAIC, SEIC, NOW, SKX, SPLK, SPSC, TECH, TFX, TXT, TJX, TSCO, SLCA, UNH, VMI, VEEV, VRSN, WRB, WMT, WAT, WSC, IEZ, IHE, DDM, QTEC, FXL, IYZ, IGV, IXC, IEO, IHI, EWO, EWI, EWM, EWY, TUR, DBA, PXJ, SSO, ROBO, XRT, SPY, USO, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Semiconductor2. Semiconductor
3. Cement and Aggregates3. E-Commerce
4. Internet4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Cement and Aggregates
6. E-Commerce6. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
7. Computer Software and Svcs7. Computer Software and Svcs
8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing8. Retail Building Supply
9. Industrial Services9. Air Transport
10. Shoe10. Internet
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Metal Fabricating50. Insurance (Life)
51. Natural Gas (Distributor)51. Petroleum (Producing)
52. Electric Utility (West)52. Medical Services
53. Electric Utility (East)53. Toiletries/Cosmetics
54. Furn/Home Furnishings54. Natural Gas (Distributor)
55. Securities Brokerage55. Securities Brokerage
56. Chemical (Diversified)56. Chemical (Diversified)
57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment57. Petroleum (Integrated)
58. Toiletries/Cosmetics58. Short ETFs
59. Human Resources59. Telecom. Equipment
60. Telecom. Equipment60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Friday 8/4/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 146 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ACIW, ADTN, AMWD, AMN, APA, AAPL, ACGL, ARW, ATO, BSET, BAX, BERY, BKNG, BRKR, CNC, CDAY, CHKP, CHD, CLX, ED, COTY, CCRN, CW, FANG, DDS, DFS, EBAY, EVH, EXPI, EZPW, FFIV, FARO, FE, FORM, FWRD, GILD, GFF, GES, HQY, HL, HUM, IDA, ISRG, JKHY, JBLU, KFRC, KMB, LAMR, LANC, LOW, MTSI, MCHX, MKTX, MLM, MTRN, MDC, MRK, MCO, MUR, NOV, NCR, NEWR, NI, NOVT, OGE, ASGN, ON, OTEX, ORCL, OUT, PYPL, PEN, PETS, PXD, PFG, QCOM, RRC, REGN, ROST, RGLD, CRM, SMG, SRE, SO, LUV, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TXT, TTD, SLCA, UIS, UNM, VMI, VECO, VEEV, V, VMC, WRB, WMB, WOLF, ITA, IYM, IYC, IEZ, IYH, ILF, SLV, IHI, EWK, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, XAR, VHT, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AONTriple top      06/30/202307/25/2023Insurance (Diversified)
AVYThree Rising Valleys      06/01/202307/25/2023Packaging and Container
BCPCTriple bottom      07/06/202307/27/2023Chemical (Specialty)
BAXPipe top      07/17/202307/24/2023Medical Supplies
BKNGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/19/202307/28/2023Internet
BRCTriple bottom      05/31/202307/07/2023Chemical (Diversified)
CDAYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/19/202307/31/2023Information Services
XRAYDouble Top, Adam and Eve      07/14/202307/27/2023Medical Supplies
FWRDDead-cat bounce      08/03/202308/03/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
FRDFlag, high and tight      06/06/202308/03/2023Building Materials
GILDPipe top      07/17/202307/24/2023Biotechnology
GPNUgly double bottom      06/28/202307/27/2023Computer Software and Svcs
HLITDead-cat bounce      08/01/202308/01/2023Telecom. Equipment
HOLXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      06/20/202307/24/2023Medical Supplies
HWMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/12/202307/31/2023Aerospace/Defense
HUMUgly double bottom      07/13/202307/28/2023Medical Services
KFRCPipe top      07/17/202307/24/2023Human Resources
KMBTriple top      06/05/202307/24/2023Household Products
NOVTDouble Top, Adam and Eve      06/30/202307/17/2023Precision Instrument
ASGNPipe top      07/17/202307/24/2023Human Resources
PXDRounding bottom      04/17/202308/02/2023Petroleum (Producing)
RMBSDead-cat bounce      08/01/202308/01/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SMGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      07/12/202308/01/2023Chemical (Basic)
SUMTriangle, symmetrical      06/30/202308/02/2023Cement and Aggregates
XELBroadening bottom      07/05/202307/26/2023Electric Utility (West)
ZBRADead-cat bounce      08/01/202308/01/2023Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 8/3/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -2.2% or -310.46 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 56 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 26 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.5% on 30 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 53.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 261/461 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 72/152 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily scale.

There's not much I can say about the chart because nothing really much happened.

I drew trendlines which I show in red, along price movement. What strikes me is the slope of the lines is similar.

What happens next? My guess is the coin will move higher but I can't point to any reason for that except a gut feel.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, ACIW, AMD, AFL, AKAM, ALB, ALKS, AYX, DOX, ANIK, AMAT, ACGL, AWI, AGO, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BERY, BBY, BIG, BKNG, BG, CNC, CI, CLNE, CNO, CGNX, CTS, DFS, DRQ, EBAY, EME, EMR, EL, FICO, FIS, FE, FNV, FDP, GME, GILD, GFS, GL, GPRO, HLIT, HON, HWM, HUM, IDXX, ITW, IIIN, JBLU, KFRC, LANC, LOW, MRK, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MS, NCR, NJR, NEWR, NI, NOVT, NUS, OMCL, ASGN, ORCL, PKE, PXD, PFG, PG, PGR, RGS, RGA, RLI, RHI, RGLD, SMG, SEIC, SCI, SPSC, TECH, TFX, TER, TEVA, TXN, UHAL, SLCA, WRB, WSO, WMB, WWW, IAI, IYC, FXI, BOTZ, IEV, MXI, IXN, ILF, SLV, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, EWU, IBB, PBE, PEJ, ROBO, XLY, GLD, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,806.01    
 Monthly S1  13,389.73  583.72   
 Weekly S2  13,747.19  357.46   
 Daily S2  13,788.33  41.14   
 Weekly S1  13,860.32  71.99   
 Daily S1  13,880.89  20.57   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  13,914.81  33.92   
 Monthly Pivot  13,918.14  3.33   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Close  13,973.45  55.31   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,998.48  25.03   
 Daily Pivot  14,007.37  8.89   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,024.33  16.96   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,050.18  25.85   
 Daily R1  14,099.93  49.75   
 Weekly Pivot  14,110.26  10.33   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Open  14,132.73  22.47   
 High  14,133.85  1.12   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  14,223.39  89.54   
 Daily R2  14,226.41  3.02   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  14,473.33  246.92   
 Monthly R1  14,501.86  28.53   
 Monthly R2  15,030.27  528.41   

Wednesday 8/2/23. Forecast 2023 Update

Here's the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 130 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AXDX, AES, ATSG, AYX, DOX, AMED, AME, AMN, ANIK, AMAT, ACGL, AWI, ARW, AVY, BAX, BMRN, BRC, BFH, BCO, BBW, CPB, CNC, CNP, CDAY, CHS, CI, CLNE, CGNX, CMCO, CONN, CXW, CR, CMI, DHR, DRQ, EBAY, EMR, EG, GPS, IT, GNW, GILD, GPRO, GFF, HLIT, HSY, HOLX, HON, HOV, HURC, ILMN, INFN, NSP, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, KBH, K, KFRC, KLIC, LZB, LEG, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, MRK, NJR, NEWR, NEE, NXGN, OLN, ASGN, PANW, PNW, PXD, PFG, DGX, RMBS, RGS, ROK, RCKY, ROG, RGLD, SBH, SMG, SEIC, STR, TPR, TECH, TFX, TJX, TSCO, TREX, SLCA, VRSN, VC, WRB, WMB, WSM, WSC, WDAY, ZBRA, ITB, IYZ, IXN, EWK, EWJ, EWM, EWP, EWD, EWL, TUR, IBB, ROBO, GLD, XHB, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 8/1/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.3% or 100.24 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1147 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 632 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 515 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 268/485 or 55.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 51/108 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring United Parcel Service 2: UPS stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 140 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AYI, ADBE, APD, ALL, DOX, AXP, ANIK, AR, APA, APOG, ADM, AWI, ARW, BSET, BECN, BAH, BCO, CPB, CENX, CDAY, CF, CHS, CHD, CINF, CNA, CNO, COP, CXW, CR, CTS, DHR, DVN, EOG, EXPI, XOM, FARO, FCX, FRD, GNW, GOOGL, HIG, HSY, HON, ITW, ILMN, INTC, ISRG, JBLU, K, KLAC, LHX, LEN, LLY, RAMP, LMT, MRO, MRTN, MOS, NBR, NFG, NEWR, NXGN, NKE, JWN, NOC, OXY, OMC, ON, OR, OMI, PYPL, PCG, PXD, PG, QTWO, QCOM, RL, RHI, R, SMG, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SHW, SHOP, STR, SO, SCCO, SSYS, TDC, TER, TJX, VEEV, VRSN, VC, WRB, WSM, WOLF, WWD, WDAY, ITA, IYE, ITB, IEZ, QTEC, FXL, IEV, IGV, IXC, MXI, ILF, IGE, IEO, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWH, EWM, EWS, THD, TUR, PPA, PXJ, XLE, XRT, XAR, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,903.37    
 Monthly S1  34,231.45  1,328.08   
 Monthly Pivot  34,938.40  706.95   
 Weekly S2  35,045.05  106.65   
 Weekly S1  35,302.29  257.24   
 Daily S2  35,382.17  79.88   
 Low  35,430.22  48.05   
 Open  35,465.97  35.75   
 Daily S1  35,470.85  4.88   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  35,473.82  2.97   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  35,482.45  8.63   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  35,498.59  16.14   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,514.72  16.13   
 Daily Pivot  35,518.90  4.18   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  35,559.53  40.63   
 High  35,566.95  7.42   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  35,607.58  40.63   
 Daily R2  35,655.63  48.05   
 Weekly R1  35,731.06  75.43   
 Weekly R2  35,902.59  171.53   
 Monthly R1  36,266.48  363.89   
 Monthly R2  36,973.43  706.95   

 

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book

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