As of 04/18/2024   Indus: 37,775 +22.07 +0.1%     Trans: 14,947 -39.62 -0.3%     Utils: 860 +6.95 +0.8%     Nasdaq: 15,602 -81.87 -0.5%     S&P 500: 5,011 -11.09 -0.2%	YTD  +0.2%   -6.0%   -2.4%    +3.9%    +5.1%	Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024     39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/2024   16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024   885 or 850 by 05/01/2024   16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024   5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 4/1/24

As of 04/18/2024   Indus: 37,775 +22.07 +0.1%     Trans: 14,947 -39.62 -0.3%     Utils: 860 +6.95 +0.8%     Nasdaq: 15,602 -81.87 -0.5%     S&P 500: 5,011 -11.09 -0.2%	YTD  +0.2%   -6.0%   -2.4%    +3.9%    +5.1%
Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024     39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/2024   16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024   885 or 850 by 05/01/2024   16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024   5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 4/1/24

Thursday 10/28/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At D, the composite made a broadening top chart pattern. The height of the pattern added to the breakout price is the measure rule, which forms a target. At A, the composite almost met the target.

The two peaks at AB form a second chart pattern called a Adam & Eve double top. It hasn't confirmed as a valid chart pattern because the composite hasn't closed below C, the lowest valley between the two peaks.

Not shown is that the chart pattern indicator has flipped to red (bearish), a change I felt would happen and discussed it yesterday. I'm looking for the downtrend to continue.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 209 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AXDX, ADBE, ADTN, AJRD, AFL, APD, AA, ALKS, ADS, ALL, AEE, AEP, AEL, AMGN, APH, ANIK, ANTM, ATR, ACGL, ADM, ARW, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AVA, BLL, BSET, BZH, BERY, BBY, BIO, BIIB, BAH, BRC, BMY, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CAL, CPB, CLS, CENX, CLX, CL, CAG, CONN, COTY, CSGS, CTS, CMI, CW, DECK, DDS, DFS, ^DJU, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DOV, DUK, EMR, WIRE, EQT, EL, RE, FFIV, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FRD, IT, GE, GIS, GNW, GPN, GL, EVRG, GES, HE, HAYN, HSY, HOV, IEX, ITW, INCY, IIIN, IPI, NVTA, JBLU, KBH, KELYA, KSS, LHX, LH, LANC, LEG, LMT, MHO, MTSI, M, MNDT, MRTN, MAS, MTRX, MRK, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MYGN, NFG, NOV, NEU, NUS, OMC, OTEX, OUT, PATK, PRFT, PETS, PINC, PFG, PGR, PEG, KWR, REV, RLI, ROST, RES, SAIC, SEE, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SWN, SR, TFX, TPX, TDC, TMO, TOL, TREX, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, V, VC, WAT, WEX, ZBRA, ITA, IYK, IDU, QTEC, FXL, ICF, IYH, IGV, IGE, EWA, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWW, EPP, EZA, EWL, TUR, QLD, PPA, PBE, PJP, XLP, XLE, XLV, XHB, XRT, XAR, XLU, VHT, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 10/27/21. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

When I looked over my stock portfolio, many of the stocks showed the same thing: hesitation at or near a new high. It felt as if they were about to tumble.

As I look at this chart, I feel the same way. Bearish divergence appears at A versus B. The indicator is signaling that the market is weakening and about to drop. It might not drop far, and divergence can last for months.

The April to May period on the chart shows this. We have bearish divergence that lasted from late March to the red vertical line (early May). The index dropped after the red bar, but didn't go down far.

That's the kind of behavior I expect now. Toward the end of the year, I expect to see the indices making a smart move higher. That could come as early as next month (starting, and lasting into January).

Of course, I could be wrong about all of this. If the market likes earnings, it could power the market higher now, sending the CPI shooting upward as well and erasing the bearish divergence (because any signal can change for up to a week).

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Notice the similarity with this chart and the last one, but the bearish divergence in this chart isn't as pronounced. Both charts are predicting the market will tumble.

A lot of this is just a hunch, but I don't like the signals I'm seeing. 'Nuff said.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 199 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADBE, AEIS, AFL, ATSG, ALRM, AA, ALL, AYX, DOX, AEL, AFG, AMWD, APA, APOG, ATR, ACGL, ADM, AIZ, AGO, ATO, ADP, AVY, AVNT, BLL, BSET, BECN, BZH, BERY, BIG, BOOT, BAH, BRC, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, CAL, CLS, CENX, CHKP, CHD, CINF, CLF, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CMTL, ED, CAG, CONN, COTY, CSGS, CTS, CMI, DECK, DOV, EXP, EIX, EQT, FFIV, FDX, FIS, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FTNT, FRD, GNW, GL, GS, GPRO, GFF, GES, HLIT, HE, HSII, HELE, HOV, IEX, ITW, IPAR, IBKR, IPI, INTU, NVTA, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, KELYA, KSS, LZB, LH, LAMR, LEG, MTSI, M, MNDT, MCHX, MTRX, MU, MCO, MYGN, NOV, NUS, NVDA, OTEX, OXM, PATK, PTEN, PRFT, PINC, PFG, PEG, KWR, RGS, RLI, RES, SMG, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SWN, SUM, SNPS, TFX, TPX, TDC, TER, TEVA, TOL, TSCO, TREX, UPS, VFC, VLO, VMI, VRSN, V, VC, WAT, WEX, WMB, XLNX, ZBRA, ITA, FDN, QTEC, FXL, IHF, IGV, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWG, EWH, EIS, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWT, TUR, EWU, PBE, PEJ, IEV, XLE, XHB, XRT, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 10/26/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Duke Energy: DUK.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 161 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AES, AFL, AKAM, ALKS, DOX, AMED, AFG, ABC, ANIK, AON, APA, APOG, AAPL, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ADP, BLL, BAX, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BIG, BMRN, BOOT, BAH, BRKS, CPB, CLS, CX, CNP, CHKP, CVX, CLNE, CMTL, CAG, CONN, COP, CROX, CMI, XRAY, BOOM, EMN, WIRE, EOG, EQT, RE, EVH, XOM, FDS, FIS, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FTNT, FRD, GNW, GS, GGG, GFF, GES, HLIT, HSC, HL, HSII, HELE, DHI, HOV, HURC, IEX, INCY, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, IBKR, IPG, IPI, NVTA, K, KFRC, KMB, LEG, LEN, LXU, MHO, MRO, MAS, MDC, MDT, MU, MCO, NOV, CNR, NWL, NOC, OXY, OLN, ASGN, PATK, PTEN, PLXS, PPL, PINC, PEG, RJF, SRE, SHW, SLGN, SO, SWX, SWN, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, TPX, TEVA, TMO, TZOO, UPS, VFC, VRSN, WWW, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYE, IEO, IGE, EWC, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWY, DBA, PBE, ROBO, XLE, XLI, UNG, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 10/25/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale. I'll confine my remarks to recent price action.

AB is a Adam & Eve double top. That's a thin peak followed by a wide peak topping out near the same price. It confirms that price is going down when the index closes below C, the lowest valley between the two peaks. Without 'confirmation' (a close below C), you just have squiggles on the price chart.

Pattern 123 is a three rising valleys chart pattern. That's three valleys which look similar in shape and importance (meaning don't mix a divot with a fjord). When the index closes above the tallest peak between the three valleys, it means price is going up.

In both patterns, price might not move far, so you have to count on your experience to make a buck trading the move.

The AB pattern led to a sizable drop (to the low at 1). The target for patterns is often the height of the pattern, from tallest peak to lowest valley within the pattern, added to the top of the pattern for upward breakouts or subtracted from the lowest valley for downward breakouts. In this case, the height is AC subtracted from C, becomes your target.

My book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition (#ad) says that price reaches the target 54% of the time. So if you set a trigger to exit the trade at the target, you'll be wrong about half the time. In other words, be conservative.

The target is just a number to show how often price will meet or exceed the target. It won't attract price to drop that far. It's not magic. The stock (or index in this case) doesn't care what your target is. It'll drop as far as it drops. Period. So I look for nearby support areas and use that as a target.

For pattern 123, it looks like the target is still further above where the index is now. So we'll have to wait and see if the index will continue to climb. My concern is that it'll do a 2B pattern (meaning a slightly higher peak above A before it reverses) and drop. That's what I expect but with November and December coming, there's a good chance it'll just continue to rise.

I guess what I'm saying is be optimistic but cautious.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 142 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AYI, AFL, APD, AKAM, ALK, ALB, AA, AMED, AXP, AFG, AMWD, ANIK, AON, APOG, AAPL, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, ASH, AGO, ADP, AVY, BSET, BIG, BIIB, BMRN, BRC, BMY, BRKS, BBW, CACI, CE, CLS, CX, CNC, CHS, CLNE, CLF, CMTL, CONN, COST, CROX, DUK, EMN, EBAY, EVH, FOE, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FRD, GNW, GGG, GFF, HQY, HL, HSII, HSY, DHI, HOV, IEX, IIIN, IPAR, IPI, INTU, NVTA, KALU, K, KELYA, KFRC, KMB, KLAC, LH, LDOS, LEN, LXU, MRTN, MDC, MLHR, MCO, NTAP, NWL, NUS, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, PFE, PLXS, PINC, PEG, PHM, KWR, RHI, SMG, SHW, SO, SWX, SUM, TGT, TER, TXN, TXT, TMO, TKR, TOL, TRV, TG, VLO, VMI, VEEV, WRB, WMT, ZBRA, IYK, IHE, ICF, SOXX, EEM, EWQ, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, PEJ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, XLE, XLI, XLB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 10/22/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 117 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALK, AA, AEL, AXP, ABC, APOG, ARCB, ACGL, ASH, BSET, BZH, BA, BRC, BMY, CPB, CLS, CX, CHS, CLNE, CMTL, CONN, COTY, CROX, DECK, ^DJT, DOV, WIRE, RE, EVH, FIVN, FMC, FRD, GNW, HTLD, HL, HSII, HOV, HUBG, HURC, IDA, IEX, IIIN, IPAR, IPG, INTU, NVTA, KALU, KFRC, KLAC, LAWS, LXU, MSFT, ^IXIC, CNR, NKE, NVDA, OMC, ASGN, OMI, PATK, PAYX, PYPL, PICO, PPG, PINC, QCOM, DGX, RMBS, RCKY, CRM, SEIC, SMTC, NOW, SWX, TDOC, TMO, TJX, TSCO, TG, SLCA, VRSN, WU, WDAY, ZBRA, IYK, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, IGV, EWZ, EIS, EWY, EWL, QLD, QQQ, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLE, XLV, XLI, XLK, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 570 stocks searched, or 3.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 10/21/21. DOGE Cryptocurrency

$ $ $

I show a picture of the cryptocurrency DOGE on the daily scale.

Let's take it apart, starting from the scale. This dog trades below a dollar. It closed today at 25 cents. I don't use the log scale on this chart because my program doesn't handle below-dollar amounts well.

I saw that peaks formed a line so I drew the red down-sloping trendline. The coin pierces that line and closes above it today. That suggests the value of the coin is going to rise.

Below that line is a head-and-shoulders bottom, labeled LS (for left shoulder), head, and RS (right shoulder). The neckline for the pattern is the blue line (A) which I drew horizontal. A traditionally drawn neckline would slope upward and that would mean a delay in the buy signal. A buy signal occurs when price closes above the neckline.

In this case, a close above the blue line confirms the head-and-shoulders as a valid chart pattern. It would also be the buy signal. The chart pattern is just squiggles on the chart until we get confirmation. But the red trendline pierce could be used as an early entry signal for those adventurous to own the coin.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AEIS, ALK, AA, AMZN, AMED, AEE, AEL, AXP, AMWD, ANIK, ANTM, APA, AAPL, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ARW, ASH, ADP, BLL, BIG, BIIB, EPAY, BRKS, CBT, CDNS, CX, CHKP, CSCO, CLNE, CNO, CGNX, CONN, COST, COTY, CROX, CCRN, DHR, DVN, ^DJU, ^DJI, EMN, EPAM, EQT, RE, EVH, FAST, FE, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FORM, FRD, IT, GIS, GL, EVRG, HL, HSII, HOV, IEX, NVTA, KFRC, LEG, LLY, L, LXU, MRO, MSFT, MCO, MOS, NEE, NI, NVDA, OXY, ASGN, OMI, PTEN, PYPL, PPL, PINC, PFG, PEG, DGX, RJF, RNG, RCKY, ^GSPC, CRM, SRE, SWX, SUM, SNPS, TPX, TMO, VEEV, VMC, WEX, ZBRA, IHI, ICF, IYH, IHF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWL, EWU, PEJ, ROBO, SSO, MXI, XLE, GLD, XLV, XLI, SPY, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 10/20/21. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

A buy signal, shown here by the vertical green bar on the right of the chart, appeared in early October. Since then, the index has recovered.

You can also see bullish divergence between the thin blue line starting in September and the index. The blue line dropped to near or at 0 (underneath the red bar) even as the index peaked. Then the two lines headed in different directions. The blue line climbed and the index dropped.

Right now, the blue line is near the top of the scale, suggesting the index is going to hit resistance and reverse. That makes sense because the index is approaching the September high, a known location for resistance.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

From a week ago, the two (red and blue) lines have improved. Both lines are trending higher, seemingly pulled upward by the index.

On this chart, I don't see any signs of weakness (overhead resistance) that the prior chart hinted at.

These two charts, taken together, don't present a clear forecast of what will happen. They don't even show a forecast of what might happen. That's typical, of course. I stake my position and then look for details which back my position. I found a hint in the CPI chart but not this one. This chart, one could argue, sees the red line rising to the level of a prior red-line peak. Same for the blue line. It's overhead resistance but does it matter?

As you look at the red line, you can see evidence that supports both sides, that there's resistance to a prior peak shown by the red line and yet evidence that it just ignores that peak and continues higher.

What I'm saying is be careful. The index is at a resistance zone and it might reverse.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 147 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, ADBE, AES, ALK, AA, AEL, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, AIZ, BIIB, BMRN, BA, BOOT, CX, CHS, CHD, CLNE, CLX, CTSH, CAG, CONN, COTY, CRH, CROX, CTS, CW, WIRE, RE, EVH, FFIV, FAST, FIVN, FMC, FCX, FRD, IT, GGG, HBI, HLIT, HL, HSII, HOV, IDXX, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, NVTA, JBLU, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, LAMR, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MTRN, MRK, MSFT, MCO, MLI, CNR, NTAP, ASGN, OUT, OMI, OXM, PKG, PRFT, QCOM, DGX, REV, RLI, SAIA, NOW, SKX, SWX, TPR, TFX, TDC, TMO, TJX, TRV, TZOO, VEEV, VRTX, WRB, WMT, WAT, WOLF, ZBRA, FTEC, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IHF, IGV, EWA, EWO, EWC, EEM, EWH, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, PEJ, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXN, SSO, XLE, XLI, SPY, XLK, VIS, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 10/19/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Diamond offshore: DO.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 106 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AMD, AES, ALB, AA, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, BAX, BZH, BIG, BMRN, BKH, CHS, CINF, CNO, CTSH, CAG, COST, CROX, CW, DDS, D, DUK, BOOM, EXP, EOG, RE, FB, FDS, FICO, FMC, FCX, FDP, FRD, GME, IT, GILD, GS, GOOGL, GGG, HLIT, HE, HSIC, DHI, ITW, INFN, IBKR, ISRG, JBLU, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KSS, LRCX, LEG, M, MCHX, MTRN, MTRX, MRK, MSFT, MCO, MOS, NBR, NJR, OXM, PKG, PYPL, PRFT, DGX, RNG, RHI, ROST, SWN, SR, SSYS, SRDX, TPX, TER, TMO, TSCO, RIG, TREX, WMT, WSO, WERN, IYE, ITB, FDN, QTEC, FXL, IAT, IGV, SOXX, EIS, EWM, IBB, IXN, GLD, XHB, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 10/18/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

Let's take the chart by colors. The two converging green lines form a symmetrical triangle. The chart pattern broke out upward and then threw back to F before trying to rise again to a new high (which it failed to achieve).

To the right of that pattern is DEF. That's a double top. Peaks DE are close to each other in price and the pattern confirms as valid when the index drops below the blue line (F) on the way to A.

Pattern ABC is similar except it's a double bottom. It confirms when the index closes above the red line C.

The index is now powering higher. That's a continuation gap by the way (separating the last two price bars on the chart. It might be an exhaustion gap, and another day will confirm that). I'm looking for the upward move to continue.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 230 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AYI, ADTN, AEIS, AES, AFL, ATSG, AA, AEL, AFG, APH, AON, APA, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, AGO, ADP, AVNT, AXS, BECN, BBBY, BIG, BMRN, BKH, CAL, CE, CX, CNP, CENX, CF, CRL, CVX, CHS, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, CRH, DVN, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DRQ, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EFX, EQT, RE, EXPD, FB, FAST, FOE, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FWRD, FCX, FDP, FRD, GME, GPS, IT, GD, GNW, GPN, GL, GPRO, GES, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HE, HP, HSY, HNI, HD, HON, HOV, JBHT, ITW, INFN, INOV, IIIN, IVC, JBLU, KALU, KMT, LH, LANC, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, L, LOW, MHO, MCHX, MTRN, MDT, MGEE, MSFT, MS, MYGN, ^IXIC, NCR, NFLX, NJR, OGE, ORI, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PKG, PETS, PFE, PCG, PLXS, POR, KWR, RMBS, RJF, RNG, RHI, ROG, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIA, SLB, SEIC, LUV, SWN, SR, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, TECH, TDC, TER, TXT, TKR, TJX, TRV, VMI, WRB, WSO, WEX, WOLF, WWW, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IYZ, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, TUR, EWU, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLI, SPY, USO, SMH, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 10/15/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here's a symbol list of 176 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADBE, AES, AFL, APD, AA, ADS, DOX, AXP, AIG, AMGN, AMN, ANIK, AON, APA, APOG, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ARW, ASH, AGO, ADSK, BMI, BECN, BIG, BMRN, BG, CACI, CDNS, CNC, CNP, CHD, CTXS, CLNE, CNO, CTSH, CSOD, CR, CTS, DHR, XRAY, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, EXP, EMN, EPAM, RE, EZPW, FICO, FE, FLEX, FORM, FCX, GPN, GOOGL, HLIT, HSC, HSII, HELE, HSY, HUBG, JBHT, IEX, ITW, INCY, INOV, NSP, IVC, LRCX, LAWS, LEG, LNC, RAMP, MCHX, MAS, MTRX, MDC, MSFT, NBR, NFG, CNR, NTAP, NJR, NEU, NVDA, OGE, OLN, OMCL, OXM, PRFT, PPG, PG, RGS, RNG, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SMTC, NOW, SCCO, SWX, SWN, SR, SCS, SUM, SNPS, TDOC, TPX, TMO, TG, VEEV, WMT, WLK, WEX, WMB, IYM, IYK, ITB, IHI, FDN, QTEC, ICF, IGV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, TUR, EWU, ROBO, IEV, MXI, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLB, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 34 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 571 stocks searched, or 6.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 22 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (10) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 10/14/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The composite formed a small triple bottom at 1, 2, 3. The pattern confirmed when the composite closed above red line A. That was a buy signal, but it hasn't amounted to much...so far anyway.

If you take the height of the chart pattern (from A to 3, the tallest part of the pattern) and add it to A, you can get a target. In stocks, price will reach the target 74% of the time according to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition #ad.

If I had to guess, I'd say the composite will move higher and that assessment agrees with the above prediction, too.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 103 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AMD, AES, APD, ALK, AA, AMWD, AMN, ANIK, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, BIG, BMRN, BRKS, BG, CBT, CNC, CHD, CLNE, CLF, CSOD, CCK, DDS, D, DUK, BOOM, EMR, WIRE, EZPW, FLS, FCX, HSII, ITW, INFN, NSP, TILE, IPI, JAZZ, KMT, LAWS, RAMP, MCHX, MRTN, MTRX, NXGN, OLN, PKG, PRFT, PFE, KWR, QCOM, RL, RJF, RNG, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SWN, SUM, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TEVA, TREX, VFC, VRSN, VMC, WRB, WMT, WLK, XEL, XLNX, IYM, FXL, EWO, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWS, EWY, PXJ, XLP, GLD, UNG, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 10/13/21. A Look At Indicators: Stealth Bullish

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish signal, shown by the vertical red line on the right of the chart, is still in place. However, look at the CPI line, the thin blue line near chart bottom.

It has been climbing even as the S & P index has been dropping. That's bullish divergence. It suggests a return of the bulls, which will push the index upward.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both the red and blue lines show improvement from a week ago. This is another indication of the market firming up, that it will begin to recover from the weakness which took it lower starting in September.

The two charts suggest the retrace is coming to an end. But with bullish divergence like we see here, it could last months before we see a recovery.

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Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AJRD, AES, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, AA, ALL, ANIK, ANTM, APOG, AAPL, ARCB, ARW, ADP, BMI, BIG, BKNG, BMY, CACI, CPB, CLS, CX, CNP, CINF, CTXS, CMCO, CAG, COTY, CR, CCK, CTS, CMI, DDS, BOOM, EMN, EMR, EFX, FFIV, FB, FIS, FMC, FTNT, FCX, HL, ITW, ILMN, IPG, JAZZ, KELYA, KLAC, LRCX, MHO, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, MSFT, NEU, NXGN, OMCL, PKG, PRFT, PFE, PINC, PFG, PGR, RL, RNG, SAIC, SWN, SR, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TG, TREX, WLK, WMB, IYK, IHE, IAT, IYF, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EWY, EWP, EWT, THD, DBA, PJP, XLF, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 10/12/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Continental Air: CAL 2

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Here's a symbol list of 148 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, APD, ALRM, AYX, AMZN, AXP, ANTM, AAPL, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, ADSK, ADP, BLL, BSET, BIG, BIO, BKNG, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CPB, CLS, CENX, CF, CRL, CHKP, CINF, CNA, CMCO, CAG, CSOD, COTY, CRH, CCRN, CCK, CTS, CMI, DFS, DOV, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EMR, EPAM, EFX, EQT, RE, EVH, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FDX, FIS, FISV, FLS, FORM, FCX, FRD, GPN, GL, GS, HSC, HE, HTLD, HSII, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HON, DHI, HURC, IDXX, ILMN, IPI, KALU, KELYA, KFRC, RAMP, L, LOW, M, MRTN, MCO, MS, MOS, MLI, ^IXIC, NCR, OGE, OUT, PKG, PANW, PINC, PFG, DGX, RMBS, RGA, RES, SLB, SEIC, SIGI, SKX, SNPS, TECH, TFX, TPX, TEVA, VMC, WU, WMB, IAI, IHI, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IAT, IYZ, IGV, IYF, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWM, EWT, TUR, QLD, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, IXN, SSO, XLF, XHB, SPY, XLK, UNG, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 10/11/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

At AB is a chart pattern familiar to many of you, I'm sure. It's called a Eve & Eve double top. I consider it an Eve top at A because the number of days between spike A and the one to the left is less than 5. Peak B is wide enough by itself to be an Eve top, too.

The patterns turn from squiggles on the chart to a valid double top when the average closes below line C.

The utilities made a strong push lower, bottoming just before October started. It bounced and is now heading lower again. The reason for this, I think, is that the markets believe interest rates are going to rise and that's bad for utility companies. Their borrowing costs will climb.

I expect the utilities to continue lower, as I show with line D.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 5 days.

Here's a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, ADBE, ALRM, AYX, AMZN, APA, AAPL, ARCB, ADM, AWI, ADSK, ADP, AVY, BLL, BZH, BIO, BRC, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CLS, CRL, CVX, CAG, COP, CLR, CSOD, CCRN, CCK, EPAM, EFX, EQT, XOM, FICO, FISV, GPS, GPN, GES, HLIT, HSC, HE, HTLD, HOLX, HON, DHI, IDA, IDXX, INFN, ITGR, KALU, KELYA, KMT, LDOS, LNC, L, LXU, MHO, MRO, MGEE, MU, MCO, MYGN, ^IXIC, NOV, NCR, NWL, NUS, OXY, OGE, OMI, OXM, PKG, PRFT, PNW, PRU, DGX, RL, RMBS, SCHW, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SKX, SRDX, SNPS, TECH, TFX, TPX, TDC, TSCO, RIG, UPS, VMC, WSO, WU, WMB, WOLF, IYE, IHI, IEO, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, IGE, EWC, EWQ, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWW, EWP, TUR, EWU, QLD, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, QQQ, PHO, IXC, IXN, SSO, XLE, XHB, XLB, SPY, XLK, USO, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday to Friday 10/4/21 to 10/8/2021. Quiz Week

Take one of these quizzes each day. All of them are based on actual trades I've made, some of them recently.

• Friday 10/8/21: Beazer: BZH
• Thursday 10/7/21: Michaels Stores: MIK
• Wednesday 10/6/21: NCR: NCR
• Tuesday 10/5/21: Insteel industries: IIIN
• Monday 10/4/21: Perficient: PRFT

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time, ending Friday 10/1/2021. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week Ending 10/1...

Year to Date, Ending 10/1...

Here's a symbol list of 105 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, AJRD, ALK, AFG, ABC, APH, AWI, BLL, BRC, CPB, CNP, CHD, CTSH, CREE, DECK, DRQ, DUK, EBAY, EQT, FOE, FTNT, GILD, HQY, HSII, HURC, ILMN, INOV, INTC, IPAR, TILE, NVTA, JCOM, K, KMB, LH, LAWS, LXU, MHO, MRO, MRTN, MTRX, MDT, MRK, MUR, NOV, NCR, NEU, PKG, PANW, PDCO, PFE, PINC, PG, PGR, RJF, SLB, SMG, SLGN, STMP, SSYS, TXN, TOL, TRV, TZOO, SLCA, VRTX, WSM, IYK, IYE, IHI, IEZ, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, EWO, EWZ, EWQ, EIS, EWL, EWT, QLD, IBB, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, IEV, XLE, XLV, XAR, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 10/1/21. 2021 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2021 forecast for October, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for one-year performance as of 30 September 2021 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order.

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 9/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago but that was based on year-to-date performance. This list is for one year performance.

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Here's a symbol list of 227 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, ACIW, AYI, AJRD, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, ALKS, ALL, AEO, AFG, AMWD, ABC, APH, ANTM, AON, APA, AAPL, ATR, ADM, ARW, AIZ, AVY, AVNT, BMI, BLL, BSET, BAX, BECN, BBBY, BRC, BLDR, CBT, CPB, CE, CNP, CVX, CINF, CSCO, CNA, CTSH, CL, COST, CR, CRH, CCRN, CMI, DHR, DECK, DDS, ^DJI, D, DRQ, EBAY, EQT, XOM, EZPW, FIS, FISV, FLS, IT, GD, GE, GILD, GL, EVRG, GFF, GES, HBI, HIG, HE, HQY, HELE, HP, HNI, HD, DHI, HOV, HUBG, HURC, IDA, IEX, INOV, IBP, IPAR, TILE, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, JNJ, K, KELYA, KBAL, KMB, KSS, LH, LANC, LAWS, LEG, LDOS, LEN, LMT, MHO, M, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRX, MDT, MGEE, MU, MCO, MS, MLI, MUR, NOV, NCR, NTGR, NJR, NEU, JWN, OGE, OMCL, OXM, PATK, PDCO, PRFT, PFE, POR, PPG, PPL, PINC, PG, PHM, DGX, RL, RMBS, RJF, RGA, REV, RLI, ROK, RCKY, SLB, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, SLGN, SO, SCCO, LUV, SXI, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TXT, TKR, TOL, TRV, TZOO, VEEV, VRTX, WMT, WMB, ITA, IYK, IHI, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, SLV, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWJ, EWY, EWD, THD, QLD, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, XLP, GLD, XLV, XHB, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

 

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