Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 02/28/2024
  Indus: 38,949 -23.39 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,706 -90.67 -0.6%  
  Utils: 841 -0.99 -0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 15,948 -87.56 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,070 -8.42 -0.2%  
YTD
 +3.3%  
-1.2%  
-4.6%  
 +6.2%  
 +6.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024
As of 02/28/2024
  Indus: 38,949 -23.39 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,706 -90.67 -0.6%  
  Utils: 841 -0.99 -0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 15,948 -87.56 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 5,070 -8.42 -0.2%  
YTD
 +3.3%  
-1.2%  
-4.6%  
 +6.2%  
 +6.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024

February 2023 Headlines

Archives


Tuesday 2/28/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.2% or 72.17 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1358 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 739 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 619 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 260/465 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/106 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Tribune Co. 2: TRB stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 142 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, AXDX, AES, APD, AEE, AXP, AMN, ATR, ANET, AVNT, BAX, BIG, BIO, BIIB, BA, BRC, BRKR, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CAL, CNP, CVX, CMCO, CMTL, ED, CAG, CXW, COST, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, DHR, XRAY, DDS, DSGR, DUK, EIX, EL, EXPD, FLS, FWRD, GME, IT, GIS, GL, GES, HSC, HQY, HSII, HELE, HSIC, HOV, IPG, IPI, KFRC, KSS, LZB, LDOS, LNC, L, LXU, MRTN, MTRN, MSFT, MS, MOS, MLI, MUR, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NEE, NI, ORI, OMC, ON, OTEX, OUT, OMI, PANW, PTEN, PCTY, PRFT, PETS, PFE, PPG, QCOM, DGX, RTX, RGA, RNG, RLI, RCKY, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, SMTC, SR, SPSC, SCS, SUM, TRGP, TJX, TZOO, TWLO, UIS, MDRX, VC, WEX, WOLF, WWW, IYM, IEZ, IHE, FXL, IHF, SLV, EWZ, EIS, TUR, DBA, XLP, XLB, UNG, VHT, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,597.87    
 Weekly S2  32,021.21  423.34   
 Monthly S1  32,243.48  222.27   
 Weekly S1  32,455.15  211.67   
 Daily S2  32,589.08  133.93   
 Daily S1  32,739.09  150.00   
 Low  32,814.18  75.09   
 Close  32,889.09  74.91   
 Open  32,906.16  17.07   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,957.47  51.31   
 Daily Pivot  32,964.18  6.71   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,001.73  37.55   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,045.99  44.26   
 Weekly Pivot  33,077.42  31.43   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  33,114.19  36.77   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  33,189.28  75.09   
 Monthly Pivot  33,289.09  99.81   
 Daily R2  33,339.29  50.20   
 Weekly R1  33,511.36  172.07   
 Monthly R1  33,934.70  423.34   
 Weekly R2  34,133.63  198.93   
 Monthly R2  34,980.31  846.68   

Monday 2/27/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

There's not a lot going on in this chart. At AB, we see a double top that confirms when the index closes below the low between the two peaks (D).

The height of the pattern from A (the higher of the two peaks) to D subtracted from D gives a target. A stock (not an index) reaches the target 64% of the time in a bull market. (I measured this).

In this case, the drop to C is either at or certainly near the target.

Since then, the index has climbed to the top of the chart and then retraced. No pattern appears during the span, at least none that come to mind.

To me, it looks as if the retrace of the climb from C to the top of the chart, is about halfway of the move. And that suggests we'll see a reversal here (meaning price should rise).

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 697.1 points.
Wednesday: Down 84.5 points.
Thursday: Up 108.82 points.
Friday: Down 336.99 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 1009.77 points or 3.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 392.33 points or 3.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 109.05 points or 2.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.4% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     0.5% up from the low of 32,643.48 on 02/24/2023.
Nasdaq
     7.1% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.
     11.0% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     5.4% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.
     4.6% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,464  32,641  32,820  32,996  33,176 
Weekly  31,997  32,407  33,053  33,463  34,110 
Monthly  31,574  32,195  33,265  33,887  34,956 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,929  3,949  3,964  3,985  3,999 
Weekly  3,879  3,925  3,988  4,034  4,098 
Monthly  3,724  3,847  4,021  4,144  4,319 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,288  11,341  11,388  11,441  11,488 
Weekly  11,122  11,258  11,471  11,608  11,821 
Monthly  10,133  10,764  11,517  12,148  12,901 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 188 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, ADBE, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, AA, AYX, AME, APOG, AAPL, ATR, ARW, AIZ, AGO, AVNT, BBBY, BBY, BKH, BA, BRKR, BBW, CAL, CIEN, CINF, CTAS, CLX, CNO, CMCO, CXW, CSGP, CSGS, CMI, D, DTE, EIX, EMR, EOG, EFX, EL, EXC, FFIV, FARO, FWRD, FCX, FRD, GPS, GE, GILD, GPN, GGG, GFF, HBI, HIG, HE, HSII, HELE, HSIC, HURC, IEX, IDXX, INFN, NSP, IIIN, IPG, IPI, KALU, KELYA, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MAN, MAS, MDT, MSFT, NCR, NFLX, NTGR, NEWR, JWN, NUS, OLN, ON, OXM, PANW, PDCO, PCTY, PKI, PFE, PLXS, PPL, PSTG, DGX, RRC, RGS, RNG, SBH, SMTC, SCI, SHW, SWX, SWN, SUM, TMO, TKR, TREX, TWLO, SLCA, VLO, VRSN, WERN, WU, WEX, WWW, IYK, IYC, IHE, DDM, FTEC, FXI, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, IEV, IXN, ILF, MXI, GLD, XHB, XLI, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)3. Metals and Mining (Div.)
4. Internet4. Homebuilding
5. Securities Brokerage5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
6. Metals and Mining (Div.)6. Securities Brokerage
7. Metal Fabricating7. Metal Fabricating
8. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment8. Drug
9. Machinery9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
10. Trucking/Transp. Leasing10. Machinery
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Natural Gas (Distributor)50. Electronics
51. Air Transport51. Petroleum (Producing)
52. Computer Software and Svcs52. Air Transport
53. Retail (Special Lines)53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Computers and Peripherals54. Retail (Special Lines)
55. Telecom. Equipment55. Computer Software and Svcs
56. Electric Utility (Central)56. Telecom. Equipment
57. Petroleum (Producing)57. Electric Utility (Central)
58. Electric Utility (East)58. Electric Utility (East)
59. Healthcare Information59. Healthcare Information
60. Natural Gas (Diversified)60. Natural Gas (Diversified)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/24/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 144 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AFL, ALGT, AYX, AEL, AFG, ABC, AME, AON, ATR, AIZ, AVNT, BBBY, BIIB, BMRN, BRKR, BBW, CAL, CRL, CINF, CTAS, CXW, CSGP, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, CW, DECK, ^DJI, DUK, EBAY, EIX, EME, EMR, EFX, EVH, FDX, FISV, FWRD, FCX, FRD, GPS, GD, GPRO, HELE, HSIC, HUM, IDA, IEX, INFN, NSP, IBKR, IPG, IPI, KALU, KEYS, KLIC, RAMP, LPLA, LXU, M, MSFT, MYGN, NFLX, NTGR, NI, JWN, NUS, NVDA, ON, PANW, PDCO, PYPL, PETS, PCG, PPL, PSTG, KWR, DGX, RL, RGA, RNG, RCKY, ROP, SCHW, SHW, STR, SR, SXI, SCS, SUM, TRGP, TGT, TEVA, TJX, RIG, TWLO, UGI, UPS, WU, WEX, WWW, WWD, IAI, IYK, IYC, DDM, FXI, ICF, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IYF, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EWS, TUR, EWU, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, MXI, XLP, XLI, XLB, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ABMThree Rising Valleys      12/14/202202/10/2023Industrial Services
ACIWTriple top      01/23/202302/07/2023IT Services
ALBDouble Top, Eve and Adam      02/03/202302/16/2023Chemical (Diversified)
ARCBDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/07/202302/16/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
AGOTriangle, symmetrical      01/19/202302/23/2023Insurance (Life)
BAHTriangle, symmetrical      01/26/202302/15/2023IT Services
BLDRTriple top      02/02/202302/15/2023Retail Building Supply
CHSHead-and-shoulders top      01/26/202302/16/2023Apparel
CXWPipe top      02/06/202302/13/2023Industrial Services
CSGPTriangle, symmetrical      01/06/202302/21/2023Information Services
FANGTriple bottom      12/09/202201/04/2023Petroleum (Producing)
^DJIBroadening top      02/02/202302/17/2023None
FLEXRectangle top      01/11/202302/23/2023Electronics
GMSDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/02/202302/16/2023Cement and Aggregates
GOOGLPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Internet
GPROPipe top      01/30/202301/30/2023Electronics
GFFPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Building Materials
GESHead-and-shoulders top      01/18/202302/15/2023Apparel
TILEDead-cat bounce      02/22/202302/22/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
IPIHorn top      01/30/202302/13/2023Chemical (Diversified)
KALUHead-and-shoulders top      01/18/202302/16/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
KEYSTriple top      12/13/202202/16/2023Precision Instrument
LHXHead-and-shoulders top      02/01/202302/21/2023Aerospace/Defense
RAMPPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Computer Software and Svcs
LXUBig W      01/20/202302/10/2023Building Materials
NOCUgly double bottom      01/27/202302/16/2023Aerospace/Defense
NTNXHead-and-shoulders top      02/03/202302/15/2023E-Commerce
OUTPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Advertising
PAYXTriple top      01/13/202302/02/2023IT Services
PKIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202302/14/2023Precision Instrument
PORDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/20/202302/16/2023Electric Utility (West)
PPGTriangle, descending      01/26/202302/23/2023Chemical (Diversified)
SRETriangle, symmetrical      12/13/202202/23/2023Electric Utility (West)
LUVHead-and-shoulders top      01/18/202302/02/2023Air Transport
SUMDouble Top, Eve and Adam      02/02/202302/15/2023Cement and Aggregates
TJXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/09/202301/26/2023Retail Store
UGIPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
VHead-and-shoulders top      01/27/202302/09/2023Financial Services
VCBroadening top      02/02/202302/16/2023Electronics
WLKDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/03/202302/16/2023Chemical (Basic)
QTECDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/02/202302/15/2023Electronics
SOXXThree Falling Peaks      02/02/202302/15/2023Semiconductor
XLKTriple top      02/03/202302/14/2023IT Services

 

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Thursday 2/23/23. Cryptocurrency Ethereum

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.1% or 14.77 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 732 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 405 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 327 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 55.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 251/445 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/145 or 49.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Ethereum on the daily scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of Ethereum on the daily scale.

The cryptocurrency formed a channel at A. They can slope either up or down, but not horizontally. If they travel horizontally, they are rectangles.

This one slopes up and it has a downward breakout that takes price down to B. Following that, the currency pulls back to C. There, it forms a knot (directly under C) as it bumps up against overhead resistance. I show that resistance with a horizontal blue line.

What comes next? Usually after a pullback, the stock continues rising, but the percentages of advancing versus dropping are nearly 50-50 (47% move lower). Cryptocurrencies may act differently.

My guess: Because the currency is at overhead resistance, I vote for a drop.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 152 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, ALGT, AYX, AEL, ABC, AME, APH, ATR, AIZ, AVNT, AVA, BMI, BSET, BBY, BMRN, BFH, BCO, BRKR, BBW, CAL, CRL, CHD, CTSH, COP, CXW, CSGP, COST, ^DJT, ^DJI, DRQ, EMR, EXPI, EXPD, FDX, FORM, FTV, FWRD, FDP, GME, GPS, GS, GOOGL, GFF, HLIT, HELE, HSIC, HSY, HD, HWM, IDXX, IIIN, INTC, IBKR, TILE, IPI, IRM, K, KEYS, KFRC, LZB, RAMP, LXU, MRO, MKTX, MTDR, MTRX, MGEE, MSFT, MOS, MYGN, NWL, NXGN, OXY, ON, OXM, PANW, PDCO, PAYX, PSTG, RTX, RNG, RCKY, CRM, SLB, SMTC, SLGN, LUV, SUM, TTD, TJX, TDG, RIG, TWLO, UGI, UPS, VMI, MDRX, VRSN, WEX, WWW, WDAY, IAI, IYE, DDM, FXL, FXI, IAT, IGE, IEO, IYF, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, TUR, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PHO, IXN, MXI, XLP, XLE, XHB, XLI. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,062.08    
 Monthly S1  10,784.58  722.49   
 Weekly S2  11,352.44  567.87   
 Daily S2  11,374.24  21.79   
 Weekly S1  11,429.76  55.52   
 Daily S1  11,440.65  10.90   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  11,445.17  4.52   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,497.64  52.47   
 Close  11,507.07  9.43   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  11,511.59  4.52   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,513.84  2.26   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  11,517.20  3.36   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  11,527.06  9.86   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,530.05  2.99   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R1  11,578.00  47.95   
 High  11,582.52  4.52   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  11,648.94  66.42   
 Weekly Pivot  11,750.52  101.59   
 Weekly R1  11,827.84  77.31   
 Weekly R2  12,148.60  320.77   
 Monthly R1  12,249.56  100.95   
 Monthly R2  12,992.04  742.49   

Wednesday 2/22/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has turned bearish when the recent retrace began (that is, three days ago). I expect this to have lasting power, judging by what happened in December when we got a dual bearish signal, separated only by the neutral zone.

This chart is bearish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 39% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 34%.
The fewest was 32% on 02/02/2023.
And the most was 81% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 520 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 17% on 02/02/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both the red and blue lines are bearish this week compared to the same day last week. Notice that we hit a peak in the red line in late January and the index also shared a high. Since then, both have retraced.

That retrace suggests the red line might drop to 3202, the site of the late November peak. I don't know what that would equate to on the index, but it appears to be where the index resides now. I say that by finding the red line peak and looking at the index directly above it.

I'm looking for the journey back to the corrective phase of a measured move up chart pattern. In stocks, we see that kind of retrace often and it's reliable. Maybe we'll see that here in the red line.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 191 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACN, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, ATSG, AA, AYX, AMZN, AEL, AMN, ANIK, AR, APOG, BMI, BECN, BZH, BIG, BMRN, BBW, BLDR, CAL, CE, CVX, CLNE, CGNX, CTSH, CMCO, CXW, CRH, CCK, CTS, FANG, DRQ, EMR, EQT, EXPI, EXPD, FARO, FAST, FORM, FTV, FCX, FRD, GPS, GL, GS, GOOGL, GFF, HLIT, HD, HON, HWM, HUN, HURC, IIIN, INTC, IBKR, INTU, IRM, KMT, KSS, KLIC, LRCX, LNC, RAMP, MGY, MTDR, MTRX, MSFT, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NOV, NTAP, NVDA, OXY, ON, OMI, PKG, PANW, PAYX, PKI, PXD, POR, PPG, PFG, PGR, PRU, PSTG, QCOM, RTX, RCKY, RES, SRE, SMTC, SHW, SHOP, SLGN, STR, LUV, SSYS, SUM, TPR, TRGP, TGT, RIG, TZOO, TREX, TWLO, SLCA, UPS, WU, WMB, WOLF, ITA, IYM, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IDU, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IAT, IGV, SOXX, IGE, IYF, EWK, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWT, TUR, QLD, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IXC, IXN, MXI, XLE, XHB, XLB, XLK, UNG, SMH, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/21/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.4% or 129.84 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1129 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 596 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 533 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 260/464 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/106 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Tribune Co.: TRB stock.

$ $ $

I posted a new pre-release version of Patternz (version 7.0.0.47) to the website. It supports Weinstein Stages (or my version of them). If you're a stage user, then let me know what you think. You'll find it on the List Form, Filters button.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 146 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ADBE, AMD, AJRD, AA, AYX, AMZN, AEL, AXP, AIG, APA, AWI, BECN, BZH, BIG, BIO, BA, BCO, CBT, CVX, CLF, CL, COP, CXW, CCRN, CCK, DVN, FANG, DFS, ^DJI, DTE, EME, EOG, RE, XOM, FDS, FARO, FAST, FORM, FWRD, FCX, FDP, FRD, GPS, GL, GOOGL, GFF, HSII, HWM, ITGR, INTC, IPG, INTU, KMT, KLIC, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MGY, MTDR, MTRX, MSFT, MCO, MUR, NOV, NFLX, NEU, NXGN, JWN, OXY, OUT, OMI, PCTY, PYPL, PRFT, PXD, PPL, PG, PRU, PEG, QCOM, RMBS, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SLB, SMTC, SHW, SHOP, STR, SR, TSCO, TWLO, SLCA, UGI, VLO, VRSN, V, WMT, WERN, WWW, ITA, IYM, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IGE, IEO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWM, EPP, DBA, PXJ, IXN, SSO, XLP, XLE, XLB, SPY, XAR, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,312.59    
 Monthly S1  33,069.64  757.05   
 Weekly S2  33,078.22  8.58   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Daily S2  33,401.44  323.22   
 Weekly S1  33,452.46  51.02   
 Low  33,517.73  65.27   
 Daily S1  33,614.07  96.34   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,643.38  29.31   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  33,677.01  33.64   
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,682.18  5.17   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Monthly Pivot  33,705.98  23.80   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,721.00  15.02   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  33,730.35  9.36   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  33,826.69  96.34   
 High  33,846.64  19.95   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  33,891.96  45.32   
 Daily R1  33,942.98  51.01   
 Daily R2  34,059.26  116.29   
 Weekly R1  34,266.20  206.93   
 Monthly R1  34,463.03  196.84   
 Weekly R2  34,705.70  242.67   
 Monthly R2  35,099.37  393.67   

Friday 2/17/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 88 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AKAM, ALK, ALKS, AYX, AEE, AIG, AMN, AWI, AIZ, AVNT, BZH, BKH, BMY, CBT, CVX, CI, CSCO, CXW, CROX, CCRN, DVN, FANG, D, DUK, EME, FWRD, GME, GPS, GOOGL, GFF, HSII, HD, INCY, IPG, IPI, NVTA, KELYA, KMT, KEYS, LH, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, MTRN, MTRX, MGEE, NEU, JWN, NWPX, OUT, OMI, PKE, PCTY, PEN, PINC, DGX, RMBS, REGN, RNG, SAIA, SLB, SMG, SHW, SR, TG, TWLO, UGI, UNM, VLO, VMI, WAT, WSO, WERN, ZBRA, IYE, IEZ, IHE, EWM, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ANFScallop, ascending      12/13/202201/09/2023Apparel
ATriangle, symmetrical      01/26/202302/14/2023Precision Instrument
AMEDUgly double bottom      01/11/202301/25/2023Medical Services
BALLDiamond top      01/19/202302/16/2023Packaging and Container
BMRNPipe top      01/23/202301/30/2023Biotechnology
BABroadening top, right-angled and ascending      01/10/202302/14/2023Aerospace/Defense
CPBTriangle, symmetrical      01/31/202302/16/2023Food Processing
CLSTriangle, symmetrical      01/26/202302/16/2023Electronics
CTASHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/05/202302/07/2023Industrial Services
CSCOHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/05/202302/09/2023Computers and Peripherals
EMNRoof, inverted      01/09/202302/15/2023Chemical (Diversified)
EMEPipe bottom      06/13/202206/21/2022Industrial Services
FLEXScallop, ascending      12/14/202201/17/2023Electronics
HSICDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/02/202302/14/2023Medical Supplies
HONTriangle, descending      01/20/202302/16/2023Aerospace/Defense
IEXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/17/202301/31/2023Machinery
MTRXPipe top      01/30/202302/06/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NOVTriangle, descending      01/24/202302/16/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PORTriple top      12/13/202201/12/2023Electric Utility (West)
PRUDiamond top      01/27/202302/16/2023Insurance (Life)
PSTGBig W      01/24/202202/24/2022Computers and Peripherals
DGXHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/25/202302/14/2023Medical Services
RNGDead-cat bounce      02/16/202302/16/2023Computer Software and Svcs
RESTriangle, symmetrical      11/11/202202/16/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SHOPTriple bottom      06/14/202207/15/2022E-Commerce
TECHTriple top      11/11/202201/11/2023Biotechnology
TTDUgly double bottom      07/14/202207/29/2022Advertising
ZBRATriple top      11/23/202212/13/2022Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 2/16/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.9% or 110.44 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 317 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 203 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 114 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 64.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 251/444 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 71/145 or 49.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I identified and highlight one chart pattern, shown here in red. Do you know it's name?

Answer: a rising wedge. Those breakout downward most often (60% of the time). Will this one be the same?

If you believe the CPI (chart pattern indicator), the the answer is probably. The CPI turned neutral, erasing a bullish signal a few days ago and changing it bearish. That makes me believe the bias is downward.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 155 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, AJRD, ALL, AYX, DOX, AIG, AME, APOG, ATR, ARCB, AWI, AGO, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AZTA, BCPC, BZH, BKNG, BAH, BFH, BBW, CBT, CAL, CNP, CENX, CVX, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CCRN, CCK, CW, DVN, FANG, DSGR, DTE, EXP, WIRE, EOG, RE, FDS, FAST, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FWRD, FDP, GPS, GILD, GS, GOOGL, GGG, GFF, HAYN, HTLD, HSII, HELE, HSY, HURC, IEX, ITW, ILMN, NSP, PODD, IPG, IPI, KMT, LAMR, LEG, LNC, RAMP, MRO, MLM, MAS, MTRX, NFG, NOV, NCR, NJR, NEU, NXGN, JWN, NUS, OUT, PCTY, PETS, PXD, PLXS, PGR, PRU, PEG, PHM, RMBS, REGN, RGA, RNG, SAIA, SLB, SAIC, SIGI, SMTC, SLGN, STR, SKYW, SWX, SR, SSYS, TDY, TPX, TTD, UGI, VLO, WMT, WAT, WERN, WLK, WSM, XEL, IYE, IDU, DDM, FXI, IHF, IAT, IEO, EWA, ECH, EEM, EWH, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, THD, TUR, PBE, ILF, XLE, GLD, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,530.55    
 Monthly S1  10,800.57  1,270.02   
 Weekly S2  11,430.77  630.20   
 Monthly Pivot  11,535.06  104.29   
 Weekly S1  11,750.68  215.62   
 Daily S2  11,811.76  61.08   
 Low  11,876.82  65.06   
 Open  11,905.12  28.30   
 Daily S1  11,941.18  36.06   
 Weekly Pivot  11,950.45  9.27   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,951.11  0.66   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,974.05  22.95   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,997.00  22.95   
 Daily Pivot  12,006.23  9.23   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  12,070.59  64.36   
 High  12,071.29  0.70   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  12,135.65  64.36   
 Daily R2  12,200.70  65.06   
 Weekly R1  12,270.36  69.66   
 Weekly R2  12,470.13  199.77   
 Monthly R1  12,805.08  334.95   
 Monthly R2  13,539.57  734.49   

Wednesday 2/15/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bullish signal we saw a week ago flipped to red when the market dropped. Signals can change for up to a week.

Now, we see a vertical green bar on the far right of the screen, indicating a bullish stance that has eased back into the neutral zone. Again, the signal can disappear and new ones appear.

The chart is neutral, trying to decide on a direction. The index looks like a flag, so maybe this is just a short retrace in an uptrend.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 34% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 32%.
The fewest was 32% on 02/02/2023.
And the most was 81% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 520 stocks in my database are down an average of 18% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 17% on 02/02/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both the red line blue lines are worse off this week than a week ago. The red line is at the highest point it has seen in months (highest on this chart). That shows strength. The minor retrace below the M-shaped high is no cause for concern, I think.

The prior chart is neutral. This chart is bullish but cautious. I'm not sure what to make of this and perhaps that in itself is a warning sign. Maybe we'll see a big drop here.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AJRD, AA, ALGT, AYX, DOX, AIG, ANIK, AON, ANET, AWI, AIZ, ATO, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BSET, CBT, CNP, CDAY, CMCO, COP, CCRN, DHR, DVN, FANG, DDS, D, EXP, EOG, RE, EVRG, EXC, FARO, FLEX, FMC, FORM, FWRD, GPS, GILD, GFS, GOOGL, GFF, HSII, HELE, HSY, HUBG, HURC, ITW, NSP, IPG, NVTA, JBLU, KALU, K, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KMB, KSS, RAMP, LPLA, MRO, MTRX, NCR, NEU, JWN, ON, OUT, PKE, PCTY, PCG, PXD, PEG, PSTG, DGX, RMBS, RTX, REGN, RGA, RLI, RES, SAIA, SBH, SLB, SEIC, SMTC, SLGN, STR, SKYW, SR, SRDX, TDOC, TPX, TMO, TRV, TG, TREX, UGI, VLO, WERN, WEX, WSM, XEL, ITA, IAI, IYE, IEO, EPP, EWD, THD, DBA, PBE, IXC, XLE, XRT, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/14/23. Slider Trading Quiz! Trex (TREX)

The Dow climbed by 1.1% or 376.66 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 381 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 218 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 163 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 57.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 260/463 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/106 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Trex: (TREX) stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 90 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, AJRD, AA, AYX, AFG, AIG, AWI, ARW, AVY, AXS, BERY, BMRN, BKNG, BFH, CBT, CTAS, CSCO, CTSH, CONN, GLW, COTY, ^DJI, EFX, RE, FDS, FIS, FISV, FIVN, FMC, FCX, FRD, GPS, GNW, GPRO, HBI, HLIT, HAYN, HWM, IDXX, IBP, IIIN, IRM, LXU, MKTX, NTAP, OLN, ASGN, OUT, PKE, PCG, PSTG, RCKY, ROL, RES, SMTC, SKYW, SWX, SRDX, TRGP, TDC, TXT, TTD, TOL, TSCO, UIS, VRTX, WMT, WEX, IHE, IDU, DDM, FXL, ICF, IYF, EWG, EWS, EWT, THD, EWU, PPA, PEJ, PJP, PHO, IXC, XLY, XLV, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,452.34    
 Monthly S1  33,349.13  896.80   
 Weekly S2  33,369.58  20.45   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Daily S2  33,765.43  395.85   
 Weekly S1  33,807.76  42.33   
 Monthly Pivot  33,845.73  37.97   
 Low  33,887.39  41.66   
 Open  33,887.39  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  34,005.68  118.29   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,025.75  20.07   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  34,030.16  4.41   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,068.50  38.33   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,111.23  42.74   
 Daily Pivot  34,127.64  16.41   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  34,245.93  118.29   
 High  34,249.60  3.67   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  34,367.89  118.29   
 Weekly R1  34,468.34  100.45   
 Daily R2  34,489.85  21.52   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  34,690.74  200.89   
 Monthly R1  34,742.52  51.78   
 Monthly R2  35,239.12  496.59   

Monday 2/13/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Nasdaq index on the daily scale.

At A, I highlight in red a chart pattern called a broadening top. The two red lines diverge, forming a megaphone shape. This one acted as a reversal of the short-term upward rise from 2 to the pattern.

Below that, at 1, 2, and 3, is a triple bottom. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above peak A, the highest peak in the pattern. If the pattern works as it's supposed to, the index should climb above A the height of the pattern (from A to 1). That hasn't happened yet. The move to B is about halfway there.

At B, we see a flag. With this chart pattern, the measure rule suggests the target would be the climb from 3 to B added to the bottom of the flag. That move hasn't happened yet. That move assumes an upward breakout from the flag.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 34.99 points.
Tuesday: Up 265.67 points.
Wednesday: Down 207.68 points.
Thursday: Down 249.13 points.
Friday: Up 169.39 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 56.74 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 288.83 points or 2.4%.
The S&P 500 index was down 46.02 points or 1.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.4% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     3.2% up from the low of 32,812.33 on 01/05/2023.
Nasdaq
     4.5% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.
     14.2% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     2.5% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.
     7.8% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,481  33,675  33,786  33,980  34,092 
Weekly  33,244  33,557  33,905  34,217  34,565 
Monthly  32,327  33,098  33,720  34,491  35,114 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,048  4,069  4,082  4,103  4,115 
Weekly  3,994  4,042  4,109  4,158  4,225 
Monthly  3,646  3,868  4,032  4,254  4,418 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,563  11,641  11,708  11,786  11,853 
Weekly  11,313  11,516  11,833  12,035  12,353 
Monthly  9,413  10,566  11,418  12,570  13,422 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 117 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, AXDX, AJRD, AES, ATSG, ALRM, ALK, AA, ALGT, AYX, AMED, APH, APA, ATR, ADM, AWI, ADP, AXS, AZTA, BALL, BIO, BMRN, BFH, CNC, CRL, CONN, CXW, CSGP, DVN, DSGR, DUK, BOOM, ELV, EPAM, EFX, EL, EZPW, FLS, FTV, FCX, GPS, GD, GNW, GPRO, GGG, GES, HBI, HIG, HAYN, IDA, NSP, PODD, NVTA, LANC, LXU, M, MGY, MRO, MKTX, MUR, NUS, NTNX, OUT, OMI, PKE, PRFT, PXD, PLXS, PPG, PSTG, QTWO, KWR, RRC, RHI, ROL, SEE, SIGI, SMTC, SHW, LUV, SWX, TRGP, TECH, TDY, TOL, VRTX, WMB, WSM, WSC, ITA, IHE, IDU, FDN, FXI, IGE, EEM, EWQ, EIS, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWL, THD, ILF, MXI, XLB. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Homebuilding3. Homebuilding
4. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)4. Metals and Mining (Div.)
5. Petroleum (Integrated)5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
6. Securities Brokerage6. Advertising
7. Metals and Mining (Div.)7. Internet
8. Metal Fabricating8. Petroleum (Integrated)
9. Drug9. Apparel
10. Machinery10. Metal Fabricating
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (West)50. Electric Utility (West)
51. Computers and Peripherals51. Medical Services
52. Retail (Special Lines)52. Air Transport
53. Electronics53. Electronics
54. Air Transport54. Telecom. Equipment
55. Computer Software and Svcs55. Computer Software and Svcs
56. Telecom. Equipment56. Natural Gas (Diversified)
57. Electric Utility (East)57. Electric Utility (Central)
58. Electric Utility (Central)58. Short ETFs
59. Natural Gas (Diversified)59. Electric Utility (East)
60. Healthcare Information60. Healthcare Information

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/10/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 155 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ABM, AXDX, ADTN, AEIS, AES, A, ALKS, ALL, AYX, AEE, AEL, APH, AON, APA, AWI, AVY, AZTA, BAX, BMRN, BA, BFH, BBW, BLDR, CLS, CRL, CHD, CLF, CGNX, CL, CAG, CONN, CXW, CR, DFS, DSGR, D, DUK, BOOM, ELV, EME, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EL, RE, EXC, EZPW, FDX, FORM, FTV, FRD, GPS, GE, GFS, GL, GS, GPRO, HBI, HLIT, HAYN, HSIC, HWM, HUBG, INFN, NSP, ITGR, NVTA, JNJ, KBAL, KMB, LEG, LDOS, M, MGY, MKTX, MLM, MTRX, MS, MUR, NCR, NWL, NUS, NTNX, OTEX, OMI, PRFT, PKI, PFE, PPG, PGR, PEG, PSTG, RJF, RLI, RHI, RCKY, SAIC, SEE, SIGI, SRE, SHW, SUM, TRGP, TEVA, TTD, TMO, TOL, TSCO, TREX, SLCA, UNM, VFC, VRTX, WERN, WU, WEX, ITA, IAI, IEZ, IHE, IDU, ICF, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWH, EIS, EWI, EZA, EWL, THD, PPA, DBA, PXJ, PJP, ILF, XLF, XLV, XLU. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ALLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/19/202302/02/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AFGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/13/202302/02/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AZTARectangle top      11/16/202202/08/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BKHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/12/202302/02/2023Electric Utility (West)
CNPTriple top      12/01/202201/13/2023Electric Utility (Central)
CFRectangle bottom      01/05/202302/09/2023Chemical (Basic)
EDTriple top      12/01/202201/11/2023Electric Utility (East)
CCRNBroadening bottom      12/16/202202/09/2023Human Resources
^DJTFlag      02/03/202302/07/2023None
DTEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/13/202201/11/2023Electric Utility (Central)
DUKHead-and-shoulders top      12/14/202202/02/2023Electric Utility (East)
EXCHead-and-shoulders top      12/14/202202/02/2023Electric Utility (East)
FDSTriangle, ascending      01/18/202302/09/2023Information Services
FEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/13/202201/17/2023Electric Utility (East)
GPSV Bottom Extension      12/06/202201/30/2023Apparel
GSPipe bottom      01/17/202301/23/2023Securities Brokerage
HQYTriple bottom      01/12/202302/02/2023Healthcare Information
HUMBroadening bottom      01/18/202302/07/2023Medical Services
NSPDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/10/202302/01/2023Human Resources
NVTATriple top      01/18/202302/02/2023Medical Services
MADiamond top      01/09/202302/07/2023Financial Services
MTRXDead-cat bounce      02/09/202302/09/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
MYGNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/23/202302/02/2023Biotechnology
NTAPUgly double bottom      12/28/202201/31/2023Computers and Peripherals
OUTFlag      02/03/202302/09/2023Advertising
PSTGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/24/202202/24/2022Computers and Peripherals
SMGFlag      02/03/202302/09/2023Chemical (Basic)
SREDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/17/202301/27/2023Electric Utility (West)
SKXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/23/202302/01/2023Shoe
SKYWDead-cat bounce      02/03/202302/03/2023Air Transport
TMODiamond top      01/12/202302/02/2023Precision Instrument
UGIDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/20/202301/31/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
UISDead-cat bounce      11/08/202211/08/2022Computers and Peripherals
VRTXPipe top      01/23/202301/30/2023Biotechnology

 

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Thursday 2/9/23. Bitcoin Review

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.7% or -203.27 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 87 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 42 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.7% on 45 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 251/444 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 70/144 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin on the daily scale.

At B, you can see price moving sideways, forming a resistance zone. That resistance causes the cryptocurrency to move sideways for a time at A. The currency has enough juice to push upward, through that overhead resistance. It does so in a robust manner as the tall white candle shows.

Highlighted in blue is a channel. Notice that the coin pushes out the bottom of the channel at C. We see the slide halt and slide along the bottom of the channel, but I think that's just a pause before the decline resumes.

In the coming days, I expect the coin to drop and find support at A.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 73 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: APD, ALL, AEE, APA, ATR, ANET, AWI, BALL, BSET, BMRN, BKH, BFH, CONN, CCK, DDS, DSGR, D, ELV, EXC, FTNT, FTV, GPS, GPRO, GES, HAYN, HL, HURC, ITW, ITGR, JKHY, JAZZ, RAMP, MHO, MKTX, NCR, NTGR, NEWR, NI, OTEX, PANW, RL, SRE, NOW, SKX, SSYS, SRDX, TPR, TTD, TOL, VRTX, VC, VMC, WSO, WERN, WU, IAI, IDU, IHF, EWO, ECH, EZA, EWY, TUR, EWU, PJP, XAR, XLU. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,477.19    
 Monthly S1  10,693.86  1,216.66   
 Weekly S2  10,975.19  281.34   
 Weekly S1  11,442.86  467.66   
 Monthly Pivot  11,481.70  38.85   
 Daily S2  11,759.37  277.66   
 Daily S1  11,834.94  75.58   
 Weekly Pivot  11,856.20  21.26   
 Low  11,890.09  33.89   
 Close  11,910.52  20.43   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  11,965.67  55.15   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,968.90  3.23   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,993.24  24.34   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,017.58  24.34   
 Daily R1  12,041.24  23.66   
 Open  12,069.12  27.88   
 High  12,096.39  27.27   
 Daily R2  12,171.97  75.58   
 Weekly R1  12,323.87  151.90   
 Monthly R1  12,698.37  374.50   
 Weekly R2  12,737.21  38.85   
 Monthly R2  13,486.21  749.00   

Wednesday 2/8/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Much to my surprise, the CPI continued to rise instead of retracing. The chart shows three pairs of white and green bars, a pattern I can't recall seeing before.

The chart shows one of strength but let me issue this warning that the indicator signals can change for up to a week. So the recent green bar can switch to red if the index were to plunge.

Will that happen? It could, of course. The index has climbed to a resistance area so I anticipate weakness going forward.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 32% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 37%.
The fewest was 32% on 02/02/2023.
And the most was 81% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 520 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 18%.
The peak was 17% on 02/02/2023.
And the bottom was 34% on 09/30/2022.

Both the red and blue lines show improvement from a week ago. The red line, the more sensitive of the two, made a big gain.

If you think of the red line's pattern as a measured move up, then we'd expect to see a retrace back to what's called the corrective phase. That's a return to the location where the red line went flat in mid to late December.

That suggests weakness going forward. Although both charts are bullish, they are signaling caution.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 96 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACIW, ADTN, AJRD, ALGT, AXP, AIG, APOG, AAPL, ATR, ARCB, AWI, ASH, AIZ, BALL, BSET, BBBY, BMRN, BFH, CLS, CINF, CTAS, CLF, CNX, CTSH, CONN, ELV, EME, EMR, EPAM, FTV, GPS, GPRO, HE, HAYN, HD, ITW, NSP, IIIN, NVTA, JKHY, KMT, KEYS, LEG, MHO, MAN, MKTX, MTDR, META, MOS, NWL, NEE, NUS, OUT, OMI, PKE, PFG, PG, RGA, SEIC, SRE, SKX, TECH, TDY, TTD, TJX, TOL, TZOO, UNH, VRTX, WRB, WERN, WSC, ITA, IAI, IHF, IAT, EWZ, ECH, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWY, TUR, IBB, PJP, XLV, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/7/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -34.99 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1373 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 716 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 657 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 259/462 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 50/106 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Tredegar 2: TG stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 97 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, ADTN, AES, ALL, AMZN, ANIK, AON, APA, AWI, AXS, BSET, BBBY, BSX, CACI, CNP, CHD, CNX, CRH, CCRN, CMI, DECK, DVN, DDS, DSGR, XOM, FARO, FIS, FMC, FTV, GPS, GILD, GPN, GS, GPRO, HSY, HOV, INTU, NVTA, IRM, KALU, LMT, L, LXU, MGY, MTRX, ORI, PKE, PDCO, PCTY, PGR, RRC, ROG, RES, SHW, SWX, TECH, TTD, TSCO, RIG, TRV, SLCA, UIS, VRSN, FXI, IGV, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, PBE, ILF, MXI, GLD, XLV, XLB. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,151.90    
 Monthly S1  33,021.46  869.56   
 Weekly S2  33,182.43  160.97   
 Weekly S1  33,536.73  354.29   
 Daily S2  33,566.55  29.83   
 Monthly Pivot  33,681.89  115.34   
 Low  33,683.58  1.69   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S1  33,728.79  45.21   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,790.26  61.47   
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,823.21  32.95   
 Daily Pivot  33,845.81  22.60   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,856.16  10.35   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  33,874.44  18.28   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  33,891.02  16.58   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  33,935.71  44.70   
 High  33,962.84  27.13   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  34,008.05  45.21   
 Daily R2  34,125.07  117.03   
 Weekly R1  34,290.01  164.93   
 Monthly R1  34,551.45  261.44   
 Weekly R2  34,688.99  137.54   
 Monthly R2  35,211.88  522.89   

Monday 2/6/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

At AB, we see a wonderful looking double bottom. That means we see two valleys (AB) which bottom near the same price. It confirms as a valid double bottom when the index closes above line C. If the index didn't close above C, the double bottom would be just squiggles on the chart.

You can see how the market reacted after the double bottom (it climbed to the top of the chart).

At B, in blue, is another chart pattern called a symmetrical triangle. Because it closed today near the top of the pattern, I'd expect an upward breakout. A breakout would mean the index has closed above the top blue line. After that, I'm not so sure the index will rise much farther.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 260.99 points.
Tuesday: Up 368.95 points.
Wednesday: Up 6.92 points.
Thursday: Down 39.02 points.
Friday: Down 127.93 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 52.07 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 385.24 points or 3.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 65.92 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.2% down from the high of 34,342.32 on 01/13/2023.
     3.4% up from the low of 32,812.33 on 01/05/2023.
Nasdaq
     2.1% down from the high of 12,269.55 on 02/02/2023.
     17.0% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     1.4% down from the high of 4,195.44 on 02/02/2023.
     9.0% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,607  33,767  33,973  34,132  34,339 
Weekly  33,194  33,560  33,947  34,313  34,701 
Monthly  32,164  33,045  33,694  34,575  35,224 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,088  4,112  4,147  4,171  4,206 
Weekly  3,936  4,036  4,116  4,216  4,296 
Monthly  3,641  3,889  4,042  4,290  4,443 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,777  11,892  12,062  12,177  12,346 
Weekly  11,007  11,507  11,888  12,388  12,769 
Monthly  9,509  10,758  11,514  12,763  13,518 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 92 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AES, AMED, AEE, AEL, AXP, AME, ANIK, ATR, AWI, BMI, BSET, BA, BBW, CBT, CACI, CALM, CPB, CNC, CF, CIEN, CI, CSCO, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CAG, DECK, DSGR, DTE, EVRG, EXC, EZPW, FTV, FDP, FRD, GPS, GD, GIS, GILD, GS, HBI, HSY, HWM, HUBG, IDXX, IIIN, IBKR, M, MANH, MTRX, MRK, JWN, NUS, OLN, OTEX, PCTY, PCG, PLXS, PPL, PGR, PRU, RGS, ROL, RES, SRE, SKYW, SCS, TECH, TXT, UNH, WLK, ITA, IAI, IDU, IYZ, EWZ, EWC, TUR, PBE, ILF, XLV, XLU. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Shoe
2. Shoe2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
3. Homebuilding3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Metals and Mining (Div.)4. Internet
5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)5. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
6. Advertising6. Metals and Mining (Div.)
7. Internet7. Apparel
8. Petroleum (Integrated)8. Homebuilding
9. Apparel9. Biotechnology
10. Metal Fabricating10. Metal Fabricating
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (West)50. Telecom. Equipment
51. Medical Services51. Computer Software and Svcs
52. Air Transport52. Computers and Peripherals
53. Electronics53. Household Products
54. Telecom. Equipment54. Electric Utility (East)
55. Computer Software and Svcs55. Electric Utility (Central)
56. Natural Gas (Diversified)56. Air Transport
57. Electric Utility (Central)57. Natural Gas (Diversified)
58. Short ETFs58. Short ETFs
59. Electric Utility (East)59. Electronics
60. Healthcare Information60. Healthcare Information

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/3/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 220 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ACN, ADBE, AFL, ALRM, ALGT, AYX, AMZN, AMED, AEO, AEL, AXP, AFG, AME, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, AWI, ARW, ATO, ADSK, AVNT, BSET, BECN, BBBY, BERY, BBY, BIO, BIIB, BA, BFH, CBT, CPB, CX, CNP, CIEN, CLNE, CNA, CGNX, CTSH, CONN, COST, CMI, DECK, XRAY, DSGR, DOV, DTE, EFX, RE, EVRG, EXPI, FFIV, FDX, FIS, FRD, GME, GPS, GIS, GNW, GILD, GL, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, HBI, HELE, HD, DHI, HOV, HWM, ITW, ILMN, IBP, IIIN, INTU, NVTA, IRM, JBLU, KBH, K, KELYA, KLIC, LZB, LAMR, LEN, LLY, RAMP, LOW, MHO, M, MCHX, MLM, MTRX, MDC, MRK, META, MSFT, MCO, MS, ^IXIC, NTAP, NJR, NEWR, NXGN, NWPX, NOVT, NUS, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OUT, PANW, PCTY, PYPL, PEN, PRFT, PETS, PPL, PGR, PRU, PEG, PHM, QTWO, RJF, RGS, RNG, ROL, RES, SCHW, SMG, SIGI, SCI, NOW, SHW, SHOP, SMAR, SPLK, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TDOC, TDY, TER, TXT, TKR, TOL, TDG, TREX, TWLO, UPS, UNH, UNM, VFC, VMI, VEEV, WSO, WSM, WOLF, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IAI, IYC, ITB, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, ICF, IYZ, IGV, SLV, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWW, EWD, TUR, EWU, QLD, DBA, PBE, PEJ, ROBO, IXN, XLY, XLI, XRT, XLK, VAW, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AESTriangle, symmetrical      01/03/202301/27/2023Electric Utility (East)
AKAMUgly double bottom      12/22/202201/25/2023E-Commerce
AMZNUgly double bottom      01/06/202301/25/2023Internet
AIGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/13/202201/09/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AMWDHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/07/202201/20/2023Building Materials
APHDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      12/22/202201/25/2023Electronics
ANETDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/06/202301/24/2023E-Commerce
ASHBroadening bottom      12/16/202201/25/2023Chemical (Basic)
ATOHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/22/202201/20/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
AVNTScallop, ascending      12/13/202201/11/2023Chemical (Specialty)
BCPCUgly double bottom      01/05/202301/19/2023Chemical (Specialty)
BOOTFlag      01/27/202302/01/2023Shoe
BFHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/19/202302/01/2023Information Services
CINFDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/19/202201/20/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CLNEHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      12/12/202201/20/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
GLWDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/12/202301/30/2023Telecom. Equipment
CSGSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/10/202301/20/2023IT Services
^DJTTriangle, symmetrical      01/18/202301/30/2023None
EXPDTriple bottom      01/19/202301/31/2023Air Transport
FASTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/05/202301/19/2023Retail Building Supply
FDXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/19/202301/31/2023Air Transport
ITTriple bottom      01/05/202301/25/2023IT Services
GFSUgly double bottom      01/03/202301/20/2023Semiconductor
HBIDead-cat bounce      02/02/202302/02/2023Apparel
HDDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/06/202301/20/2023Retail Building Supply
IPIUgly double bottom      01/05/202301/19/2023Chemical (Diversified)
KBALUgly double bottom      12/19/202201/20/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
RAMPRising wedge      12/14/202201/19/2023Computer Software and Svcs
MTSIDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/05/202301/20/2023Semiconductor
MLMDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      12/23/202201/26/2023Cement and Aggregates
MTRXPipe bottom      01/17/202301/23/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
MGEETriple bottom      12/16/202201/20/2023Electric Utility (Central)
NWPXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/05/202301/19/2023Building Materials
NUSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/19/202301/31/2023Toiletries/Cosmetics
PKGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      12/22/202201/25/2023Packaging and Container
PCTYHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/27/202201/25/2023E-Commerce
PNWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/24/202301/31/2023Electric Utility (West)
PPGTriple bottom      12/22/202201/19/2023Chemical (Diversified)
PGRPipe bottom      01/17/202301/23/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SCHWDiamond bottom      01/19/202302/02/2023Securities Brokerage
TDCDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/20/202201/19/2023Computer Software and Svcs
TXNTriangle, symmetrical      01/12/202301/31/2023Semiconductor
UNMHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/17/202201/19/2023Insurance (Diversified)
VFCUgly double bottom      12/22/202201/19/2023Apparel
VEEVTriple bottom      12/28/202201/19/2023Healthcare Information
VMCDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/22/202201/25/2023Cement and Aggregates

 

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Thursday 2/2/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 2.0% or 231.77 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 55 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 32 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 23 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 58.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 250/443 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 70/144 or 48.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I released another version (7.0.0.46) of Patternz, my free pattern finding software. This one expands the filters to include big price and volume moves.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The Nasdaq has been following an up-sloping trend as the red line shows. However, at A, the index spiked. Why?

The answer is the FED told the world what they did with interest rates (raised them 1/4 point again) and also described what the rest of the year might look like. The market liked what they said.

Look near the end of today's trading. The index dropped marginally, suggesting tomorrow the index will open lower.

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Here's a symbol list of 105 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, AXDX, AEIS, AMD, AEO, AMGN, ANIK, ARCB, ATO, AVNT, BFH, BMY, CBT, CENX, CRL, CNO, CTSH, GLW, CCK, CMI, DDS, DSGR, ^DJT, ^DJI, EME, WIRE, EVRG, FFIV, FTV, FCX, GNW, GILD, GFS, GS, GGG, HELE, IEX, IIIN, IRM, JBLU, KELYA, LANC, LOW, M, MAS, MTRN, MTRX, MS, NEU, NOVT, OXY, ON, PTEN, PKI, PFG, PGR, PEG, RTX, RGS, RNG, RES, R, ^GSPC, SAIA, SMG, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SCI, SWN, SNPS, TPX, TMO, RIG, UNH, VFC, VMI, VECO, ITA, IAI, IHE, QTEC, FXL, IYZ, SLV, EWA, EWK, ECH, EIS, EWP, TUR, IBB, PBE, PJP, IEV, MXI, XLI, SPY. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,754.14    
 Monthly S1  10,785.23  1,031.09   
 Weekly S2  10,903.09  117.86   
 Monthly Pivot  11,238.56  335.47   
 Daily S2  11,336.53  97.97   
 Weekly S1  11,359.70  23.17   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  11,500.33  140.63   
 Weekly Pivot  11,525.80  25.47   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Open  11,573.14  47.34   
 Daily S1  11,576.43  3.29   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,654.54  78.11   
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,702.17  47.63   
 Daily Pivot  11,740.22  38.05   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,749.81  9.59   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  11,816.32  66.51   
 High  11,904.02  87.70   
 Daily R1  11,980.12  76.10   
 Weekly R1  11,982.41  2.30   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  12,143.91  161.50   
 Weekly R2  12,148.51  4.59   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  12,269.65  121.14   
 Monthly R2  12,722.98  453.33   

Wednesday 2/1/23. 2023 Forecast Update

I pre-released a new version of Patternz (twice. I'm up to 7.0.0.45). It has the ability to filter chart patterns by various traits. See the List Form, Filter button (middle bottom of the form). I'm still working on enhancements to the program so send me your ideas for improvement and maybe you'll see it soon. Version 45 has some important bug fixes.

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Here's the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

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Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 1/30/2023 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+37%)
2. Utilities (1%)
4. Health care (1%)
5. Industrials (1%)
7. Materials (0%)
3. Consumer staples (-3%)
6. Financials (-7%)
8. Real estate (-15%)
9. Information technology (-16%)
10. Consumer discretionary (-19%)
11. Communication services (-27%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 1/31/23.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
3. Financials
4. Consumer discretionary
5. Industrials
6. Communication services
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Utilities
11. Real estate
10. Materials

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 1/30/23. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

3. Construction and engineering (+51%)
2. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+37%)
1. Energy equipment and services (+32%)
4. Independent power and renewable electric producers (+19%)
New. Metals and mining (+18%)
6. Biotechnology (+14%)
9. Insurance (+12%)
5. Aerospace & Defense (+12%)
New. Trading companies and distributors (+10%)
8. Gas utilities (+9%)

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Here's a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AEIS, AJRD, AA, AEO, AFG, ANIK, ATR, ARCB, ANET, ARW, AVNT, AVA, BKH, BOOT, BFH, BCO, BBW, CNP, CRL, CLF, CTSH, GLW, XRAY, DRQ, BOOM, RE, EVRG, FICO, FAST, FE, FDP, GNW, GPN, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HAYN, HSII, HELE, HUBG, IIIN, PODD, ITGR, TILE, NVTA, JBLU, KELYA, KFRC, KBAL, LAMR, L, LXU, MTSI, MCHX, MAS, MTRX, MDC, MLI, NEU, NEE, OXM, PTEN, PAYX, PNW, PGR, PHM, QTWO, RMBS, RGS, ROG, ROST, RES, SRE, SCI, SMAR, SPSC, SSYS, SNPS, TFX, TEVA, TDG, RIG, TREX, UNM, VMI, MDRX, VRTX, V, WERN, WMB, WOLF, IAI, IHE, ICF, SOXX, IYF, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, IXN, XLY, XLI, XLK, USO, SMH, VHT, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book

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