Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 05/23/2024
  Indus: 39,065 -605.78 -1.5%  
  Trans: 15,009 -185.73 -1.2%  
  Utils: 924 -20.84 -2.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,736 -65.51 -0.4%  
  S&P 500: 5,268 -39.17 -0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.6%  
 +4.8%  
 +11.5%  
 +10.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024
As of 05/23/2024
  Indus: 39,065 -605.78 -1.5%  
  Trans: 15,009 -185.73 -1.2%  
  Utils: 924 -20.84 -2.2%  
  Nasdaq: 16,736 -65.51 -0.4%  
  S&P 500: 5,268 -39.17 -0.7%  
YTD
 +3.7%  
-5.6%  
 +4.8%  
 +11.5%  
 +10.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/13/2024  
  Up arrow41,000 or 38,500 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow16,050 or 15,300 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 900 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow17,250 or 15,850 by 06/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,100 by 06/01/2024

February 2024 Headlines

Archives


Thursday 2/29/24. Bitcoin (BTC-USD)

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.5% or -87.56 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 371 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 182 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 189 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 50.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 272/482 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 75/160 or 46.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the bitcoin on the weekly scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the weekly scale.

I drew the red line at the top of the chart (C) to illustrate that the currency has not made a new all-time high. The high was set in late 2021.

The other two lines, A and B, show cup with handle type patterns. They are not a true cup with handle because they are too wide. CWH should be about a year long or narrower.

That applies to stocks, not crypto, so who cares? After the cups finished their handle, they made a nice move higher. If you were to look at the daily chart, you'd see the enthusiasm for the coin pushing it higher. I expect that to continue.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 110 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADBE, ADTN, A, AMWD, AMGN, APH, APOG, AGO, BALL, BSET, BG, CPB, CRL, CHKP, CL, CXW, COST, CRH, CTS, DHR, EBAY, EME, EVH, EZPW, FDS, FISV, FCX, IT, GIS, GNW, GILD, GS, GFF, THG, HOLX, ILMN, NSP, INTC, JBLU, KBH, LRCX, LANC, RAMP, MGY, MANH, MCHX, MRK, MU, MS, NTAP, NWPX, NTNX, OLN, PKE, PATK, PINC, PEG, PSTG, REGN, RGLD, R, SBH, SAIC, SEIC, NOW, STR, SXI, TZOO, TREX, UGI, VEEV, VC, WAT, WEX, WPM, WWD, XEL, ITA, IAI, IYC, IYE, IHE, IYH, SLV, IGE, EWH, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWT, THD, EWU, PXJ, PJP, XLY, XLI, UNG, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,676.03    
 Weekly S2  15,161.97  485.93   
 Monthly S1  15,311.89  149.92   
 Weekly S1  15,554.85  242.97   
 Monthly Pivot  15,723.05  168.20   
 Weekly Pivot  15,844.54  121.48   
 Daily S2  15,879.83  35.30   
 Daily S1  15,913.79  33.95   
 Low  15,924.72  10.93   
 Close  15,947.74  23.02   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,954.84  7.10   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  15,958.67  3.84   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,964.14  5.47   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  15,969.14  5.00   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,973.44  4.30   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  15,992.63  19.18   
 High  16,003.56  10.93   
 Daily R2  16,037.51  33.95   
 Weekly R1  16,237.42  199.91   
 Monthly R1  16,358.91  121.48   
 Weekly R2  16,527.11  168.20   
 Monthly R2  16,770.07  242.97   

Wednesday 2/28/24. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I thought a significant retrace was about to happen. I circled the three areas that gave me the clue. Notice that the signals group before the index drops. That's what I thought would happen at A.

Sigh. It didn't. I'm still waiting for a retrace. It's coming. It may not happen in my lifetime, but I do believe it'll happen.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 27%.
The fewest was 25% on 02/27/2024.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 516 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 13% on 12/26/2023.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

I drew green lines connecting the two indicators and the index.

Line A is flat (the red line is the more sensitive of the red and blue lines). C tilts downward. And B has a nice rise to it. This spells d-i-v-e-r-g-e-n-c-e to me. Bearish divergence.

However, like the prior chart, there's no telling if it's significant and divergence can continue for months. What I'm saying is that the charts are warning of a downturn, but it's only a warning. Could be a fake warning or it could be wrong with the bullish uptrend continuing.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ADBE, AEIS, AFL, ALB, AA, AEO, AIG, AMWD, AME, AMGN, APOG, AAPL, ATR, ADP, AVNT, AXS, AZTA, BSET, BECN, BERY, BIO, BIIB, BAH, BSX, BBW, CF, CRL, CI, CLF, CNX, CGNX, CL, CXW, CW, DHR, DRQ, EMN, EQT, EVH, FFIV, FAST, GES, HBI, HLIT, HE, HSII, HP, HON, INFN, NSP, IIIN, TILE, IPI, INTU, IRM, JBLU, KALU, LRCX, LDOS, LNC, MTSI, M, MANH, MAS, META, MU, MLKN, MCO, MOS, MLI, MUR, NFLX, NTAP, NJR, NEU, NI, JWN, NWPX, NOVT, NTNX, OR, OMI, OXM, PKE, PFE, PPG, PINC, QCOM, RL, ROG, R, SBH, SAIC, SMTC, NOW, STR, SXI, TER, TJX, TOL, TDG, RIG, TRV, TREX, UNH, VFC, MDRX, WAT, WEX, WOLF, IYC, IYE, FXI, IAT, IEV, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWG, EIS, EWM, EWY, DBA, ROBO, XRT, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/27/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.2% or -62.3 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1255 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 628 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 627 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 282/512 or 55.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 53/112 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring symmetrical triangles.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ADTN, AEIS, APD, ALK, AA, DOX, AXP, AMWD, APOG, AAPL, ANET, ATO, ADP, AVNT, BERY, BKNG, BAH, BSX, CACI, CAL, CRL, CI, CTAS, CLX, CNA, CR, CTS, CW, ^DJU, ^DJI, DTE, EXP, EBAY, EIX, ELV, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, EQT, EG, EVRG, EVH, XOM, EZPW, FARO, FIS, FISV, FDP, GME, HBI, HSII, HSY, ILMN, IIIN, IBKR, IPG, INTU, LHX, LOW, LPLA, LXU, MGY, MANH, MA, MRCY, MGEE, MU, MCO, NFLX, NTGR, NJR, NWL, NEE, NWPX, NOVT, OMCL, OMC, OMI, PANW, PCTY, PEN, PETS, POR, PSTG, RL, RJF, RTX, RHI, RCKY, RES, SAIC, SHOP, SKYW, SPSC, TPX, TEVA, TKR, TDG, TZOO, TG, TREX, UHAL, UNH, VECO, WMT, WSO, WSM, WSC, WOLF, XEL, IYC, IDU, SLV, IYF, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWS, EWD, EWL, XLP, XLF, UNG, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  36,770.50    
 Monthly S1  37,919.87  1,149.36   
 Weekly S2  37,953.00  33.13   
 Weekly S1  38,511.11  558.12   
 Monthly Pivot  38,601.07  89.96   
 Daily S2  38,893.55  292.48   
 Weekly Pivot  38,896.70  3.14   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  38,981.39  84.70   
 Low  39,025.80  44.41   
 Close  39,069.23  43.43   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  39,109.88  40.64   
 Daily Pivot  39,113.64  3.77   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  39,135.84  22.20   
 Open  39,144.79  8.95   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  39,161.82  17.03   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  39,201.48  39.66   
 High  39,245.89  44.41   
 Daily R2  39,333.73  87.84   
 Weekly R1  39,454.81  121.08   
 Monthly R1  39,750.44  295.63   
 Weekly R2  39,840.40  89.96   
 Monthly R2  40,431.64  591.25   

Monday 2/26/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

The Dow has been on a tear since point A in late October (or early November). The mid point of the move from A to B, using a ruler, is the red line.

When, not if, the industrials retrace, it's probably going to take the index down far, perhaps to that red line, C (approximately).

I can already see the chart pattern indicator (not shown) getting nervous about the climb, but those fears have lessened in the last few days.

I still think trouble is coming. According to my 2024 Dow forecast, it could be until May before we see a significant decline.

In the meantime, enjoy the ride. And be sure to carry plenty of bottled oxygen for the climb. Smiley

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 64.19 points.
Wednesday: Up 48.44 points.
Thursday: Up 456.87 points.
Friday: Up 62.42 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 503.54 points or 1.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 221.17 points or 1.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 83.23 points or 1.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.4% down from the high of 39,282.28 on 02/23/2024.
     5.4% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     0.9% down from the high of 16,134.22 on 02/23/2024.
     10.5% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.4% down from the high of 5,111.06 on 02/23/2024.
     8.7% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  38,981  39,057  39,169  39,244  39,357 
Weekly  37,974  38,553  38,917  39,496  39,861 
Monthly  36,791  37,961  38,622  39,792  40,452 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,064  5,076  5,094  5,106  5,123 
Weekly  4,884  4,986  5,049  5,151  5,214 
Monthly  4,670  4,879  4,995  5,205  5,321 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,849  15,923  16,029  16,103  16,208 
Weekly  15,178  15,588  15,861  16,270  16,543 
Monthly  14,692  15,345  15,739  16,392  16,786 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, AEIS, APD, ALRM, AEP, AEL, AMGN, AAPL, AWI, AGO, BALL, BAX, BECN, BERY, BA, BRC, BCO, BMY, CBT, CDNS, CF, CNA, CNO, CL, CMTL, COST, COTY, CSGS, CTS, DHR, DFS, DSGR, BOOM, EIX, EME, WIRE, EPAM, EVRG, FICO, FARO, FIS, FISV, FTV, FRD, GGG, THG, HLIT, HE, HTLD, HNI, HD, HUM, JBHT, IDXX, IPG, INTU, KBH, KMB, LRCX, LANC, MAN, MCHX, NTGR, NWL, NOC, NWPX, NOVT, OMC, OMI, PAYX, PEN, PINC, PSTG, RGS, RLI, ROP, ROST, RES, CRM, SHOP, STR, SPSC, SXI, SRDX, TECH, TFX, TDC, TER, TXN, TMO, TSCO, TG, UHAL, VC, WAT, WSO, WU, WOLF, IDU, IYH, MXI, SOXX, SLV, IYF, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWD, PBE, XLF, XHB, XRT, VHT, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Apparel1. Apparel
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Furn/Home Furnishings
5. Homebuilding5. E-Commerce
6. Semiconductor6. Semiconductor
7. Retail (Special Lines)7. Retail (Special Lines)
8. E-Commerce8. Homebuilding
9. Building Materials9. IT Services
10. IT Services10. Cement and Aggregates
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Human Resources50. Petroleum (Integrated)
51. Electric Utility (East)51. Electric Utility (East)
52. Electric Utility (West)52. Electric Utility (Central)
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Food Processing54. Air Transport
55. Air Transport55. Natural Gas (Distributor)
56. Natural Gas (Distributor)56. Natural Gas (Diversified)
57. Natural Gas (Diversified)57. Food Processing
58. Chemical (Diversified)58. Chemical (Diversified)
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Short ETFs60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/23/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 174 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, APD, AKAM, ALK, AYX, AEO, AEL, AME, APH, ADSK, AVY, AVA, BCPC, BZH, BA, BKNG, CDNS, COR, CENX, CF, CRL, CTAS, CNA, CTSH, CL, CSGP, COST, COTY, CRH, CCRN, CTS, D, DTE, EXP, EIX, EME, WIRE, EPAM, EVRG, EXPD, FDS, FICO, FARO, FAST, FDX, FISV, FIVN, GNW, GPRO, GGG, GFF, GES, HBI, HSIC, HOLX, HD, HON, IBP, IPG, ISRG, JBLU, KALU, LZB, LAMR, LEG, MTSI, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MAS, META, MCO, MLI, NTGR, NWL, NEU, JWN, NWPX, NOVT, OMC, OTEX, PATK, PAYX, PRFT, PFG, PSTG, RMBS, RNG, ROK, ROG, ROP, RGLD, RES, SAIA, SAND, NOW, SHOP, SPLK, SPSC, SXI, SUM, SNPS, TGT, TDOC, TDY, TFX, TXT, TG, TREX, UHAL, UPS, VMI, VECO, VMC, WRB, WSO, WERN, WPM, ZBRA, IYC, IYE, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IEV, IXC, ILF, SOXX, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EWY, EWD, THD, QLD, PHO, ROBO, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ACIWBroadening top      12/15/202302/15/2024IT Services
ALGTTriangle, ascending      01/08/202402/22/2024Air Transport
DOXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/22/202402/07/2024IT Services
AMEDTriangle, symmetrical      02/06/202402/21/2024Medical Services
AMNDead-cat bounce      02/16/202402/16/2024Human Resources
ARHead-and-shoulders top      12/27/202301/30/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
AVAPipe bottom      02/05/202402/12/2024Electric Utility (West)
CNAPipe top      02/05/202402/12/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CAGTriple top      01/04/202402/02/2024Food Processing
CONNBroadening top, right-angled and descending      01/08/202402/22/2024Retail (Special Lines)
DFSPipe bottom      01/16/202401/22/2024Financial Services
DPipe bottom      02/05/202402/12/2024Electric Utility (East)
DTEDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/24/202402/08/2024Electric Utility (Central)
BOOMPipe bottom      01/08/202401/16/2024Metal Fabricating
EBAYTriple bottom      01/16/202402/13/2024Internet
EIXPipe bottom      02/05/202402/12/2024Electric Utility (West)
WIREPipe top      02/05/202402/12/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
FARODouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/30/202402/12/2024Precision Instrument
FIVNDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/22/202402/12/2024Computer Software and Svcs
GLDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/09/202402/01/2024Insurance (Life)
HUNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/17/202402/13/2024Chemical (Specialty)
ITWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/01/202402/13/2024Metal Fabricating
ITGRDouble Top, Adam and Eve      01/22/202402/13/2024Electronics
JAZZTriple bottom      02/02/202402/14/2024Biotechnology
KDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/22/202402/09/2024Food Processing
MTDRTriple bottom      12/12/202302/05/2024Petroleum (Producing)
MYGNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/05/202402/13/2024Biotechnology
NWPXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/31/202402/12/2024Building Materials
OXYDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/18/202402/05/2024Petroleum (Producing)
OXMDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/16/202402/05/2024Apparel
PANWDead-cat bounce      02/21/202402/21/2024Computer Software and Svcs
PPLDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/24/202402/08/2024Electric Utility (East)
PSTGPipe top      02/05/202402/12/2024Computers and Peripherals
RNGHead-and-shoulders top      12/28/202302/12/2024Computer Software and Svcs
ROLTriangle, ascending      01/22/202402/14/2024Industrial Services
RDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/26/202302/12/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SMTCTriangle, symmetrical      01/17/202402/21/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
NOWPipe top      02/05/202402/12/2024IT Services
SHOPPipe top      02/05/202402/12/2024E-Commerce
SWXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/08/202402/14/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
SWNTriple bottom      01/23/202402/14/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
TDOCDead-cat bounce      02/21/202402/21/2024Healthcare Information
UISDead-cat bounce      02/21/202402/21/2024Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 2/22/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.3% or -49.91 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 540 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 293 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 247 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 54.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 271/481 or 56.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 75/160 or 46.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Peaks AB show a pattern called a double top (two similar peaks) or even a triple top (three similar peaks). The pattern confirms as valid when the index closes below the green line at C. I drew the line connecting the lowest valley between peaks A and B.

Recently, the index formed a down-sloping channel, which I show here in red. The breakout from the channel was upward, suggesting a higher close will come tomorrow (but the start could be bumpy with a retrace of the strong move up in the last hour of today's session).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 165 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AEIS, APD, ALKS, AR, ATR, ARCB, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BMI, BA, BFH, BRKR, CDNS, CDAY, CNA, CNX, CL, CCRN, CTS, DHR, XRAY, ^DJI, D, BOOM, EBAY, EIX, WIRE, EPAM, EQT, EG, EVRG, EXC, FICO, FARO, FIS, FTNT, GME, GE, GNW, GES, HBI, HAYN, HOLX, DHI, HUBG, IDA, IBP, ITGR, IPG, JAZZ, KMT, KEYS, LZB, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, MGY, MRO, MCHX, MTRN, META, MCO, MLI, NTGR, NTAP, NWL, NWPX, NOVT, NTNX, NVDA, OMC, OTEX, PANW, PAYX, PRFT, PETS, PFG, PSTG, RRC, RNG, ROP, RGLD, RES, SAIA, SCHW, SAIC, SCI, NOW, SHOP, SLGN, SMAR, LUV, SWN, SPLK, SPSC, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TPR, TECH, TDOC, TDY, TG, UHAL, SLCA, UIS, WAT, WSO, WERN, WPM, WOLF, WWW, WWD, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYE, IHE, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IEV, IGV, IXC, EWO, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWP, EWD, EWL, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, XLE, XLB. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,081.88    
 Monthly S1  14,831.38  749.49   
 Weekly S2  15,208.83  377.45   
 Weekly S1  15,394.85  186.02   
 Daily S2  15,406.70  11.85   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  15,451.65  44.95   
 Monthly Pivot  15,455.72  4.07   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  15,493.79  38.06   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,502.09  8.30   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,517.67  15.58   
 Open  15,532.12  14.46   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,533.24  1.12   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  15,538.73  5.49   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  15,580.87  42.14   
 High  15,583.68  2.81   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  15,625.82  42.14   
 Daily R2  15,670.76  44.95   
 Weekly Pivot  15,737.46  66.70   
 Weekly R1  15,923.48  186.02   
 Monthly R1  16,205.22  281.74   
 Weekly R2  16,266.09  60.87   
 Monthly R2  16,829.56  563.47   

Wednesday 2/21/24. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart shows the CPI has entered the neutral zone, not bullish nor bearish. It's transitioning from bullish, so that's a warning that it's getting weaker. It could drop into bearish territory in the coming days or weeks.

However, if you look at the chart, signal changes that come in wide groups (meaning a number of changes in a short time) signal a top. That happened in late July/early August and October. The narrower changes (one to three bars wide), like those in May and June, didn't signal a lasting trend change.

If that analysis is correct, then we're looking at a whopper of a drop coming.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 27% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 27%.
The fewest was 25% on 12/26/2023.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 516 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 13% on 12/26/2023.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

The blue line is weaker this week compared to a week ago, but the red line (the more sensitive of the two) shows no change.

The prior chart warns of a significant drop coming, but this chart is neutral. I'd like to say that one of them is wrong, but both could be wrong.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 137 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ADBE, ADTN, ALK, ALB, AYX, AEP, AFG, AMN, AON, AAPL, ACGL, ANET, AWI, AVNT, BRC, BFH, BCO, CNC, CNP, CIEN, CLX, CGNX, CL, CSGP, COST, CR, DFS, EXP, ELV, WIRE, EQT, EXPI, EXPD, FE, FISV, FLEX, GPN, GL, GGG, GES, THG, HL, IDA, PODD, ISRG, IRM, KMB, KSS, LLY, RAMP, MHO, MAN, MU, MYGN, NTGR, NTAP, NWL, OXY, ORI, ORCL, OR, OUT, PAYX, QTWO, QCOM, RNG, RCKY, ROST, CRM, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SMAR, SWN, TXT, TOL, TRV, TG, UNM, VFC, VLO, VMI, WMT, WERN, WPM, WMB, WOLF, WDAY, IHE, BOTZ, QQQ, IYH, IEV, MXI, IEO, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWS, EWD, QLD, XLV, USO, VHT, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/20/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.4% or -145.13 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 949 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 481 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 468 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 282/511 or 55.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 53/112 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Pipe tops.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 122 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, DOX, AMN, AMAT, ACGL, BIO, BRKR, CX, COR, CNC, CF, CRL, CIEN, CMTL, COST, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, FANG, BOOM, EXP, EG, EZPW, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FORM, FCX, GOOGL, GGG, GES, THG, HUBG, ITGR, KMB, KLIC, LH, LRCX, LLY, MANH, MRO, MRTN, MA, MU, MOS, ^IXIC, NTAP, ORI, PXD, QCOM, RGA, RNG, RLI, ROL, RES, SAIA, CRM, SAIC, SEIC, SIGI, SMAR, SCCO, SWN, TDOC, TTD, TKR, TDG, TWLO, VLO, VRTX, VMC, WSM, WOLF, WWW, WDAY, IYC, IYE, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, QQQ, IYZ, IEV, IGV, IXC, MXI, ILF, IYF, EWO, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWU, QLD, PJP, XLE, XLB, VAW, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  36,421.88    
 Monthly S1  37,524.93  1,103.06   
 Weekly S2  37,644.42  119.49   
 Weekly S1  38,136.21  491.79   
 Monthly Pivot  38,226.01  89.80   
 Daily S2  38,436.96  210.96   
 Weekly Pivot  38,531.64  94.68   
 Daily S1  38,532.48  0.83   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  38,583.24  50.76   
 Close  38,627.99  44.75   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  38,675.61  47.62   
 Daily Pivot  38,678.75  3.15   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  38,704.14  25.38   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  38,732.67  28.53   
 Open  38,751.71  19.04   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  38,774.27  22.55   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  38,825.03  50.77   
 Daily R2  38,920.54  95.51   
 Weekly R1  39,023.43  102.88   
 Monthly R1  39,329.06  305.64   
 Weekly R2  39,418.86  89.80   
 Monthly R2  40,030.14  611.27   

Friday 2/16/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 165 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AMD, AKAM, ALK, ALKS, AYX, AR, ATR, AVY, AZTA, BMI, BAX, CBT, CDNS, CNC, CF, CRL, CVX, CHD, CR, CRH, CROX, CSGS, CTS, ^DJI, BOOM, EMN, XOM, EZPW, FIS, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FORM, FTV, GPS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, HTLD, HELE, HP, HNI, HUBG, HUN, IPI, INTU, JAZZ, KELYA, KLIC, LNC, LMT, LXU, MANH, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MGEE, MLKN, MUR, NBR, NWL, NUS, OUT, PCTY, PEN, PFE, PNW, PXD, QTWO, KWR, QCOM, RJF, ROG, RES, R, SAIA, SBH, SMG, NOW, STR, SMAR, SWN, SPLK, SXI, SCS, SUM, TPR, TDOC, TPX, TDC, TXN, TTD, TSCO, TG, TWLO, SLCA, UIS, VMI, MDRX, VRSN, WERN, WEX, WMB, WOLF, WWW, ZBRA, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, BOTZ, IHF, IEV, IXC, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWL, TUR, PPA, PXJ, PJP, PHO, XLP, XLE, XLF, XRT, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDPipe bottom      01/29/202402/05/2024Electronics
APADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/05/202402/13/2024Petroleum (Producing)
AVNTDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/18/202402/05/2024Chemical (Specialty)
BMIDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/26/202402/06/2024Precision Instrument
BECNDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/24/202402/02/2024Retail Building Supply
BIGDead-cat bounce      02/12/202402/12/2024Retail Store
BRKRTriple bottom      01/03/202402/12/2024Precision Instrument
CNCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/25/202402/06/2024Medical Services
CGNXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/06/202402/13/2024Precision Instrument
FANGDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/18/202402/05/2024Petroleum (Producing)
DDSTriple bottom      01/05/202402/07/2024Retail Store
EMNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/02/202402/13/2024Chemical (Diversified)
FEDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/25/202402/08/2024Electric Utility (East)
HBIBroadening top      01/29/202402/15/2024Apparel
IIINPipe bottom      01/16/202401/22/2024Building Materials
IPGBroadening top, right-angled and descending      12/18/202302/09/2024Advertising
LOWDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/05/202401/25/2024Retail Building Supply
MAPennant      02/01/202402/12/2024Financial Services
MDTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/12/202401/31/2024Medical Supplies
MLIScallop, ascending      12/27/202301/30/2024Metal Fabricating
NUSDead-cat bounce      02/15/202402/15/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
ORIDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/25/202402/08/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
OMIHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/03/202402/05/2024Medical Supplies
PTENDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/05/202402/13/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PENScallop, ascending      01/16/202402/09/2024Medical Supplies
RESDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/05/202402/13/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SIGIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/01/202402/08/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SRHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/18/202402/13/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
SPSCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/05/202402/01/2024E-Commerce
SCSDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/18/202402/05/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
TDCDead-cat bounce      02/13/202402/13/2024Computer Software and Svcs
VEEVThree Rising Valleys      12/07/202302/01/2024Healthcare Information
VRTXBroadening top      01/12/202401/30/2024Biotechnology
ZBRADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/17/202402/01/2024Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 2/15/24. A Look at Ethereum (ETH-USD). Going Higher

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.3% or 203.55 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 170 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 108 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 62 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 63.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 270/480 or 56.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 75/160 or 46.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the ethereum on daily scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH-USD) found support at the horizontal red line A. At B, the currency pushed above resistance setup by the prior peak. This might be the end of the upward run, when it forms a 2B patterns (where the second peak sneaks above the first one but then reverses).

My feeling, and it's just a guess, is that the pattern will resemble the red line in the inset.

From the October low, price moved up to A, it's gone horizontal, and then is making another uphill run. So I'm expecting the uphill run to last longer.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 137 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ATSG, AKAM, AEL, AIG, AME, AON, AAPL, AVA, BALL, BAX, BIIB, BMRN, BR, CPB, CE, CX, CNC, CENX, CRL, CNX, CMCO, CMTL, GLW, CR, CCK, CSGS, CTS, CMI, ^DJT, BOOM, EMR, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FLEX, FORM, FNV, FRD, GE, GNW, GL, GGG, HNI, HWM, HUBG, HUM, HUN, HURC, INFN, NSP, IIIN, IPAR, INTU, JNJ, KEYS, KFRC, KLIC, LLY, MTSI, MAN, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MTRX, MU, MLKN, MCO, NOV, NFLX, NTAP, NOVT, OMCL, PRFT, PXD, QTWO, KWR, QCOM, RNG, RHI, ROL, R, SMG, SMTC, LUV, SWN, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TPR, TRGP, TDOC, TXN, TMO, TKR, TDG, TRV, TG, WMT, WU, WPM, WWD, IYM, IAI, IEV, IXC, MXI, EWA, EWO, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWI, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, EWU, PJP, XLE, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,918.28    
 Monthly S1  14,888.72  970.43   
 Weekly S2  15,243.76  355.05   
 Monthly Pivot  15,448.00  204.24   
 Weekly S1  15,551.46  103.45   
 Daily S2  15,621.30  69.84   
 Low  15,683.94  62.64   
 Daily S1  15,740.22  56.28   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,753.30  13.08   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,774.72  21.42   
 Weekly Pivot  15,779.37  4.65   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  15,781.71  2.34   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,796.15  14.44   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  15,802.87  6.72   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  15,859.15  56.28   
 High  15,865.51  6.36   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  15,921.79  56.28   
 Daily R2  15,984.44  62.64   
 Weekly R1  16,087.07  102.63   
 Weekly R2  16,314.98  227.92   
 Monthly R1  16,418.44  103.45   
 Monthly R2  16,977.72  559.29   

Wednesday 2/14/24. A Look At Indicators

Market dips are beautiful things!

I don't usually discuss my market trading, but I bought some QQQs late in the trading session. I caught the Nasdaq ETF (at $425 and change) before it turned higher going into the close, so I'm pleased. I've been waiting for a retrace to spend some cash, and I finally found it. I expect a snap-back rally tomorrow (2/14). If it doesn't recover, I'm not worried. This is a long-term holding, one I consider a buy-and-hold forever thing.

If you look at the forecast here, this is the drop in February that the chart shows forecasted to be early in February, not midway. Regardless of the timing, I'll take it.

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bearish today, due to the big sell off on news that inflation was lower than last month, but above predictions. In other words, it was good news but not superb news. As I wrote above, I expect a snap-back rally.

The chart is bearish, but I expect the red bar on the far right of the chart to disappear if we see a big rally. Signals can change for up to a week.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 31% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 31%.
The fewest was 25% on 12/26/2023.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 516 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 13% on 12/26/2023.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

The red and blue lines show no change from a week ago. So the chart is neutral.

The prior chart says it's bearish, but I don't believe it. This chart is neutral, but has bearish divergence (today's reading is below the December peak and price on the bar chart is much higher today than in December).

I think the markets will make a nice recovery to erase this dip. However, I could be wrong... The Nasdaq forecast says we'll recover going into March but then fade to mid May.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ACIW, AFL, AAPL, ANET, AGO, ATO, ADP, AXS, BAX, BIG, BMRN, BR, CDNS, CPB, CNC, CENX, CHKP, CVX, CTAS, CNA, CNO, CNX, CTSH, ED, CONN, CSGP, CCK, CSGS, CW, BOOM, ECL, EOG, EXPI, EXPD, FDS, FDX, FIVN, FORM, FCX, FRD, GNW, GL, GPRO, HTLD, HL, DHI, HUBG, NSP, IBKR, JBLU, KFRC, KMB, KLIC, LHX, LAMR, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, LMT, LPLA, MCHX, MA, MU, NI, NOC, OLN, OTEX, ORCL, OUT, PETS, PXD, PPG, PGR, QTWO, QCOM, RGS, RGA, RNG, RLI, ROP, RGLD, CRM, SMG, SMTC, SCI, NOW, SHOP, SMAR, SCCO, SPLK, SNPS, TDOC, TDC, TER, TXN, TDG, TG, TWLO, VRSN, WMT, WAT, WPM, WMB, ZBRA, ICF, IGV, IXC, SLV, EWZ, EWG, EIS, EWJ, EWW, EZA, EWL, EWU, PJP, XLE, GLD, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/13/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.3% or 125.69 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1156 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 635 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 521 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 282/510 or 55.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 53/112 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Flags.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 161 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ABM, AXDX, AES, ALRM, ALK, AYX, AEE, AEP, AIG, AMWD, APOG, ADM, ANET, ASH, AIZ, BSET, BAX, BIG, BMRN, CACI, CDNS, CE, CNC, CENX, CIEN, CTSH, CMTL, COP, COST, CROX, CSGS, XRAY, FANG, ^DJI, D, ECL, WIRE, EQT, FICO, FIS, FE, FLS, IT, GPN, GL, GS, HIG, HE, HAYN, HELE, HD, HON, IDA, IPAR, JKHY, JBLU, KALU, K, KSS, LZB, LANC, LEN, LNC, L, LOW, LXU, MANH, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MLKN, MYGN, NTGR, NWL, NEE, JWN, NOC, NWPX, NUS, OGE, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OR, PKE, PLXS, PPG, PINC, PFG, PGR, QTWO, KWR, RJF, RNG, SBH, SLB, SEIC, SCI, NOW, SHOP, LUV, SR, SPLK, SXI, SNPS, TDC, TXN, TTD, TMO, TOL, RIG, VRSN, VMC, WRB, WWW, ITA, IYM, IYC, ITB, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FXL, IYZ, IGV, ILF, SOXX, EEM, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWS, EWY, EWD, TUR, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, XLV, XHB, XLB, XRT, XAR, XLU, USO, VHT, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  36,573.98    
 Monthly S1  37,685.68  1,111.70   
 Weekly S2  38,055.88  370.20   
 Monthly Pivot  38,234.65  178.77   
 Weekly S1  38,426.63  191.98   
 Daily S2  38,486.30  59.68   
 Weekly Pivot  38,591.15  104.85   
 Low  38,628.92  37.77   
 Daily S1  38,641.84  12.92   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  38,656.76  14.92   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  38,742.82  86.05   
 50% Down from Intraday High  38,778.00  35.18   
 Daily Pivot  38,784.46  6.46   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  38,797.38  12.92   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  38,813.18  15.80   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  38,927.08  113.89   
 Daily R1  38,940.00  12.92   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  38,961.91  21.91   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  39,082.62  120.71   
 Weekly R2  39,126.43  43.81   
 Monthly R1  39,346.35  219.92   
 Monthly R2  39,895.32  548.97   

Monday 2/12/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale, but there's not much to discuss.

I drew red trendline A connecting the recent bottoms. The line supports the index.

The green line I drew because I wanted to show that the index has climbed above it, at B. It has not moved much higher, of course. It could form a 2B top and reverse.

A 2B pattern is when a second peak moves slightly above the first one before reversing. The drop that follows isn't usually significant before a recovery happens.

I think the chart is bullish, so I'm expecting more of an upward move in the coming week.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 274.3 points.
Tuesday: Up 141.24 points.
Wednesday: Up 156 points.
Thursday: Up 48.97 points.
Friday: Down 54.64 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 17.27 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 361.71 points or 2.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 68 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 38,783.62 on 02/02/2024.
     4.2% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     0.1% down from the high of 16,007.29 on 02/09/2024.
     10.5% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 5,030.06 on 02/09/2024.
     7.4% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  38,492  38,582  38,658  38,748  38,824 
Weekly  38,014  38,343  38,549  38,878  39,085 
Monthly  36,532  37,602  38,193  39,263  39,853 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,989  5,008  5,019  5,038  5,049 
Weekly  4,880  4,953  4,992  5,065  5,104 
Monthly  4,565  4,796  4,913  5,144  5,261 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,768  15,879  15,943  16,055  16,119 
Weekly  15,288  15,639  15,823  16,175  16,359 
Monthly  13,962  14,976  15,492  16,506  17,022 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AXDX, ACIW, ALRM, AA, AYX, AMWD, AMN, APOG, AMAT, AVY, AXS, BSET, BAX, CACI, CDNS, CPB, CENX, CVX, CLNE, CTSH, CL, CAG, CONN, COP, CXW, COST, CRH, CROX, ^DJI, DRQ, ECL, EOG, EFX, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FFIV, FICO, FARO, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FTV, FNV, FCX, GME, GGG, GES, HELE, HWM, ILMN, IPAR, INTU, KALU, KMT, KSS, LRCX, LEG, LXU, MCHX, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, META, MSFT, MCO, MYGN, ^IXIC, NTGR, NWPX, NUS, OXY, OLN, OMC, PKE, PEN, PRFT, PETS, PSTG, RNG, RLI, RGLD, R, SAND, SLB, SMG, NOW, LUV, SWX, SPLK, SPSC, SXI, SSYS, TDY, TTD, TJX, TSCO, TDG, RIG, TRV, UIS, VMI, VRSN, VC, WMB, WSM, IYC, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IYZ, IEV, IGV, IXC, SOXX, IGE, IEO, EIS, EZA, EWY, EWL, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, XLE, XHB, XLK, VAW, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Apparel1. Shoe
2. E-Commerce2. Homebuilding
3. Shoe3. E-Commerce
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Furn/Home Furnishings
5. Semiconductor5. Internet
6. Furn/Home Furnishings6. Computer Software and Svcs
7. Retail (Special Lines)7. Apparel
8. IT Services8. IT Services
9. Semiconductor Cap Equip.9. Retail (Special Lines)
10. Homebuilding10. Semiconductor
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Petroleum (Producing)50. Petroleum (Producing)
51. Electric Utility (Central)51. Electric Utility (Central)
52. Toiletries/Cosmetics52. Natural Gas (Distributor)
53. Natural Gas (Distributor)53. Natural Gas (Diversified)
54. Air Transport54. Food Processing
55. Electric Utility (West)55. Electric Utility (West)
56. Natural Gas (Diversified)56. Air Transport
57. Food Processing57. Chemical (Diversified)
58. Short ETFs58. Short ETFs
59. Chemical (Diversified)59. Toiletries/Cosmetics
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/9/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I released the 2024 forecast for five market indices: Dow industrials, transports, utilities, S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 140 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ACIW, ALL, AYX, AEP, AIG, AME, AMN, AON, BAX, BERY, BMRN, BKNG, BAH, BG, CACI, CENX, CVX, CNX, CL, ED, CAG, COST, COTY, CCRN, XRAY, DDS, ^DJT, DRQ, EVRG, FDS, FICO, FLEX, FLS, FMC, GILD, GPRO, GGG, GES, HELE, HSIC, HSY, HD, IIIN, IPAR, JNJ, KALU, K, KELYA, KFRC, KLAC, KSS, LXU, MGY, MAS, MTRN, MDC, MSFT, NTGR, NJR, NEE, NI, JWN, NWPX, NUS, OLN, OMI, PKG, PKE, PEN, PNW, POR, PPL, QCOM, RL, REGN, RNG, ROL, ROST, SAIA, SLB, SPLK, SXI, SSYS, SNPS, TPR, TDOC, TTD, TMO, TDG, RIG, UHAL, SLCA, UIS, VMI, V, VMC, WMB, WOLF, WWW, ITA, IYC, IYE, ITB, IEZ, FTEC, FXL, ICF, IYZ, IXC, IXN, SOXX, EWO, EWI, EWM, EWW, PXJ, PJP, XLE, XHB, XLK, USO, SMH, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ALRMThree Rising Valleys      01/10/202402/02/2024Computer Software and Svcs
DOXDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/22/202402/07/2024IT Services
AMWDTriangle, symmetrical      01/22/202402/08/2024Building Materials
AONPipe top      01/16/202401/22/2024Insurance (Diversified)
ARCBTriangle, ascending      12/04/202302/01/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
BALLHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/03/202402/01/2024Packaging and Container
BADiamond bottom      01/16/202402/08/2024Aerospace/Defense
BOOTHorn bottom      01/02/202401/16/2024Shoe
CCKDead-cat bounce      02/06/202402/06/2024Packaging and Container
CMIHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/22/202302/06/2024Machinery
ELPipe bottom      01/16/202401/22/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
FLSTriangle, symmetrical      10/17/202312/12/2023Machinery
GPSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/18/202401/31/2024Apparel
GSDiamond top      12/28/202302/08/2024Securities Brokerage
HELETriple top      12/14/202301/26/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
IDXXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/17/202402/01/2024Drug
IPARTriple bottom      01/05/202401/25/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
LZBDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/18/202402/02/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
LENRoof, inverted      01/10/202402/08/2024Homebuilding
MHODouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/29/202301/22/2024Homebuilding
MTRXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/19/202402/05/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
^IXICThree Rising Valleys      10/26/202301/05/2024None
NOVDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/26/202301/25/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NOVTHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/05/202402/06/2024Precision Instrument
PANWFlag      01/23/202402/06/2024Computer Software and Svcs
PENThree Rising Valleys      11/10/202301/05/2024Medical Supplies
PRUDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/18/202402/01/2024Insurance (Life)
SLBPipe top      01/22/202401/29/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SKXDiamond top      01/10/202402/01/2024Shoe
UISPipe top      01/22/202401/29/2024Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 2/8/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.9% or 147.64 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 322 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 206 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 116 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 64.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 269/479 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 75/160 or 46.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

There's not much to say about this chart. I drew two trendlines. The first is the red one that starts by showing support on Thursday but runs into trouble when the index falls below it on Tuesday. Support has turned into resistance. You can see resistance at A where the index touches the line and bounces off.

The second one is the green trendline. I drew this connecting the Tuesday peak on the left to the right, just to see where the peaks Friday to Tuesday line up. On Wednesday, the market gaps open higher, skipping right over the green line.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 183 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ACIW, AEIS, AES, ALRM, AYX, DOX, AWI, ARW, ATO, ADSK, AVY, AZTA, BAX, BERY, BIIB, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BR, BRKR, BLDR, CACI, CPB, CENX, CTAS, CNX, CMCO, CAG, COST, COTY, CCRN, CMI, DDS, ^DJI, D, DRQ, DTE, EXP, ECL, ELV, EME, EVRG, FARO, FAST, FLS, FORM, FWRD, GD, GILD, GPRO, GGG, GFF, THG, HLIT, HTLD, HSIC, HWM, IDA, IBP, IPAR, IPG, IRM, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, K, KELYA, KSS, LZB, LXU, MGY, MAN, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MDC, MRCY, MCO, MOS, NBR, NWL, NKE, JWN, NOC, NOVT, NUS, OLN, OMCL, OMC, OUT, PKG, PANW, PKE, PRFT, PNW, RMBS, RNG, RHI, RCKY, ^GSPC, SLB, STR, SO, SR, SCS, TPR, TECH, TEVA, TMO, TJX, TDG, RIG, TG, TREX, UHAL, UIS, UNH, UNM, VFC, VMI, VC, VMC, WU, WMB, WWW, WDAY, XEL, IYM, IYC, IEZ, DDM, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, MXI, SLV, EWO, EWK, EIS, EWY, EWP, TUR, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, SSO, XLY, XHB, XLI, XLB, SPY, UNG, USO, VIS, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,112.83    
 Monthly S1  14,934.74  821.90   
 Weekly S2  15,020.73  85.99   
 Monthly Pivot  15,299.47  278.75   
 Weekly S1  15,388.68  89.21   
 Weekly Pivot  15,526.45  137.76   
 Daily S2  15,599.51  73.06   
 Low  15,645.81  46.30   
 Daily S1  15,678.07  32.26   
 Open  15,690.35  12.28   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,693.51  3.16   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,708.25  14.73   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,722.98  14.73   
 Daily Pivot  15,724.38  1.40   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  15,756.64  32.26   
 High  15,770.68  14.04   
 Daily R1  15,802.94  32.26   
 Daily R2  15,849.25  46.30   
 Weekly R1  15,894.40  45.16   
 Weekly R2  16,032.17  137.76   
 Monthly R1  16,121.38  89.21   
 Monthly R2  16,486.11  364.74   

Wednesday 2/7/24. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bearish three trading days ago, suggesting but not guaranteeing that the indicator won't change. It can change for up to a week but is usually stable after 3 days. That happens if the market were to make a big move (up in this case).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 31% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 28%.
The fewest was 25% on 12/26/2023.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 516 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 13% on 12/26/2023.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

Both the red and blue lines are more bearish today than they were a week ago. Both lines looked like they peaked in December and have been sliding lower since.

Both charts are hinting or outright yelling that this upward trend is losing steam. Does that mean a reversal is imminent? No.

This is the first time I've noticed that the above chart shows a meaningful result (usually the two lines follow the market index). It shows divergence between price action and the indicators. Translation: I'd be careful going forward. The markets might drop. It could shoot upward, but there's underlying weakness building.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 140 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AXDX, ACIW, APD, ATSG, ALRM, AME, ANIK, AON, AAPL, BAX, BBY, BIO, BAH, BCO, BMY, BBW, CBT, CDNS, CNC, CENX, CNX, CTSH, CCRN, CCK, CTS, DDS, EG, FFIV, FE, FLS, FMC, FORM, FWRD, FRD, GNW, GS, HLIT, HIG, HE, HELE, DHI, HUN, IPAR, TILE, INTU, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KFRC, KLAC, KSS, LRCX, RAMP, LXU, MHO, MGY, MCHX, MA, MTRX, MGEE, NBR, NJR, NWL, JWN, NUS, NVDA, OLN, ORCL, OR, OMI, PKG, PANW, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PEN, PPG, PINC, PFG, RMBS, RNG, ROK, ROST, SLB, SAIC, SMG, NOW, STR, SCCO, SUM, SNPS, TECH, TEVA, TOL, RIG, TG, UIS, UPS, VFC, MDRX, IYC, IEZ, IHE, FXI, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, EWK, EEM, EWG, EIS, EWP, EWT, THD, TUR, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, XLY, XLF, XRT, UNG, USO, SMH, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 2/6/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.7% or -274.3 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 604 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 300 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 304 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 50.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 282/510 or 55.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 53/111 or 47.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Diamond bottom.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 120 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, APD, ATSG, ALK, AA, AMN, ANIK, AON, BMI, BAX, BKH, BAH, BMY, BBW, CBT, CALM, CLS, CHKP, CONN, COTY, CCRN, CCK, CSGS, XRAY, DVN, DFS, EL, FNV, FCX, GNW, GFS, GOOGL, GPRO, HBI, HAYN, HL, HNI, HON, HOV, HURC, IDXX, IIIN, IPAR, NVTA, JNJ, KELYA, LLY, LMT, LPLA, MCHX, MTDR, MTRX, MGEE, MU, NWL, NEE, NWPX, NVDA, OXY, OLN, OTEX, ORCL, OUT, PDCO, PTEN, PINC, RTX, REGN, RNG, RLI, RCKY, RGLD, RES, SAND, SMG, SCCO, SCS, TG, SLCA, UNM, VLO, WEX, WOLF, WWD, IYM, IEZ, IHE, ICF, IYZ, IGV, EWO, EWG, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWU, PXJ, PJP, GLD, XAR, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  36,434.89    
 Monthly S1  37,407.51  972.61   
 Weekly S2  37,685.85  278.34   
 Daily S2  37,997.99  312.14   
 Weekly S1  38,032.99  35.00   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Monthly Pivot  38,095.56  62.57   
 Daily S1  38,189.05  93.49   
 Low  38,220.40  31.34   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  38,378.35  157.95   
 Close  38,380.12  1.77   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  38,408.30  28.18   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  38,411.46  3.16   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  38,427.14  15.68   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  38,475.93  48.79   
 Open  38,546.77  70.84   
 Daily R1  38,602.54  55.77   
 High  38,633.88  31.34   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  38,755.44  121.56   
 Daily R2  38,824.95  69.51   
 Monthly R1  39,068.18  243.23   
 Weekly R2  39,130.75  62.58   
 Monthly R2  39,756.23  625.48   

Monday 2/5/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

There's not much to say about the chart.

One could argue that there's a measured move down chart pattern forming at ABCD.

The thinking with this pattern is that the CD leg will equal the length and duration of leg AB. What I like about this pattern is that when it completes, the index often returns to the corrective phase, BC.

So you can expect a retrace and trade accordingly. Just remember that the ABCD pattern has to complete first.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 224.02 points.
Tuesday: Up 133.86 points.
Wednesday: Down 317.01 points.
Thursday: Up 369.54 points.
Friday: Up 134.58 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 544.99 points or 1.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 173.59 points or 1.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 67.64 points or 1.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 38,783.62 on 02/02/2024.
     4.1% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     0.2% down from the high of 15,664.21 on 02/02/2024.
     8.0% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.3% down from the high of 4,975.29 on 02/02/2024.
     5.9% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  38,144  38,399  38,592  38,847  39,039 
Weekly  37,777  38,216  38,500  38,938  39,222 
Monthly  36,526  37,590  38,187  39,251  39,848 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,880  4,919  4,947  4,987  5,015 
Weekly  4,796  4,877  4,926  5,008  5,056 
Monthly  4,579  4,769  4,872  5,062  5,165 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,256  15,442  15,553  15,740  15,851 
Weekly  14,978  15,304  15,484  15,809  15,990 
Monthly  14,070  14,850  15,257  16,036  16,444 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 102 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACIW, AFL, AA, ALL, AMZN, AON, ACGL, ANET, AGO, ADSK, BAX, BZH, BOOT, BSX, BMY, CBT, CVX, CI, CINF, CLNE, CLX, CONN, COP, CCK, CSGS, DECK, XRAY, DFS, EL, FDS, FCX, FRD, GILD, GL, GS, GGG, HBI, HIG, HAYN, HOV, IIIN, IPAR, IBKR, INTU, JKHY, JBLU, JNJ, LZB, MGY, MCHX, MKTX, MDC, META, MS, NVDA, OXY, OTEX, ORCL, OUT, PGR, REGN, RLI, ^GSPC, SMG, SEIC, SHOP, SSYS, TDOC, RIG, TZOO, TREX, VMC, WOLF, WWW, WWD, IYC, IHE, FDN, FXI, ICF, IAT, EWO, ECH, EWH, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWU, PBE, PJP, SSO, XHB, SPY, USO, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Furn/Home Furnishings
2. Homebuilding2. Homebuilding
3. E-Commerce3. Shoe
4. Furn/Home Furnishings4. Apparel
5. Internet5. IT Services
6. Computer Software and Svcs6. Retail (Special Lines)
7. Apparel7. E-Commerce
8. IT Services8. Computer Software and Svcs
9. Retail (Special Lines)9. Internet
10. Semiconductor10. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Petroleum (Producing)50. Natural Gas (Distributor)
51. Electric Utility (Central)51. Electric Utility (East)
52. Natural Gas (Distributor)52. Air Transport
53. Natural Gas (Diversified)53. Medical Supplies
54. Food Processing54. Short ETFs
55. Electric Utility (West)55. Electric Utility (Central)
56. Air Transport56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Chemical (Diversified)57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
58. Short ETFs58. Food Processing
59. Toiletries/Cosmetics59. Chemical (Diversified)
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 2/2/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 156 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ADTN, AFL, ALK, AA, DOX, AEP, AXP, AFG, AON, APA, ANET, ARW, ADP, AVA, BAX, BERY, BIG, BIIB, BKH, BMY, BR, BG, CBT, CPB, CX, CNP, CINF, CSCO, CLX, CNA, CNO, CL, ED, CAG, CONN, COP, GLW, COST, CCRN, CCK, CSGS, CTS, DVN, DFS, D, DTE, ELV, EOG, EL, EVRG, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FE, FLEX, FORM, FCX, FDP, GNW, GL, GOOGL, GPRO, HBI, HLIT, HE, HSY, HNI, HOV, HUBG, HUN, IDA, IDXX, ITW, IIIN, IPI, IRM, JNJ, K, KLIC, L, MGY, MTRX, MCO, NBR, ^IXIC, NTGR, NEU, NEE, OGE, ORCL, OR, OUT, PLXS, POR, PPL, PFG, PG, PRU, PEG, QCOM, RNG, RLI, ROL, SAIA, SBH, SEIC, SHOP, SMAR, SO, SR, SSYS, SRDX, TGT, TER, TEVA, TTD, TREX, TWLO, UGI, WOLF, XEL, IDU, FDN, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IHF, IAT, IGV, IXN, ILF, EWI, EWJ, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWT, THD, TUR, PJP, GLD, XRT, XAR, XLU, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AEOBroadening top      12/14/202301/19/2024Apparel
BMITriple top      12/14/202301/23/2024Precision Instrument
CONNDouble Top, Eve and Eve      01/10/202401/23/2024Retail (Special Lines)
CRThree Rising Valleys      10/23/202301/29/2024Diversified Co.
CCRNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/02/202401/10/2024Human Resources
FASTScallop, ascending and inverted      11/29/202301/09/2024Retail Building Supply
FLEXHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/03/202401/29/2024Electronics
GMETriangle, symmetrical      01/11/202402/01/2024Retail (Special Lines)
HOVPipe bottom      01/16/202401/22/2024Homebuilding
JBLUDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/14/202301/08/2024Air Transport
JNJDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/09/202401/22/2024Medical Supplies
KLICTriple top      12/15/202301/25/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ORPipe bottom      01/02/202401/08/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
RLIPipe top      01/16/202401/22/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SRDXDead-cat bounce      02/01/202402/01/2024Medical Supplies
TERDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/27/202301/24/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TREXTriangle, symmetrical      12/20/202301/31/2024Building Materials
UPSTriple top      12/18/202301/26/2024Air Transport
VEEVThree Rising Valleys      11/10/202301/08/2024Healthcare Information
WSCDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/08/202401/16/2024Industrial Services

 

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Thursday 2/1/24. Market Forecast Update

The Nasdaq dropped by -2.2% or -345.89 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 57 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 26 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 31 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 54.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 269/479 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 75/159 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Here's the updated 2024 market forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 238 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, AFL, A, ALB, AA, ALL, AMED, AEE, AFG, AMWD, AME, AON, APA, APOG, AAPL, ATR, ARCB, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AGO, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BERY, BIO, BAH, BSX, BRC, BR, CBT, CE, CNC, CENX, CF, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CHD, CINF, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CMCO, CAG, CONN, COP, GLW, CCK, CSGS, DHR, DVN, FANG, DFS, DSGR, ^DJU, EMN, ECL, EMR, EOG, EQT, EL, EG, EXC, EXPD, FDS, FIS, FE, FISV, FLS, FMC, FORM, FTV, FCX, FDP, GME, GD, GNW, GL, GMS, GFF, HBI, HE, HAYN, HQY, HNI, HOLX, HD, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, IIIN, ITGR, TILE, IPI, IRM, JKHY, K, KMT, KMB, KLIC, LHX, LH, LEG, LDOS, LLY, LMT, L, MGY, MANH, MKTX, MRTN, MA, MTDR, MTRN, MTRX, MRK, MSFT, NBR, NFG, NOV, NEU, NI, NWPX, OR, POR, PPG, PINC, KWR, RL, REGN, RGA, RLI, RHI, ROK, ROL, R, SBH, SLB, SMG, SEE, SIGI, SCCO, SWX, SPSC, SXI, SSYS, TRGP, TER, TXT, TJX, TSCO, TRV, TZOO, TG, UHAL, SLCA, UPS, UNM, WMT, WAT, WERN, WU, WLK, WEX, WMB, WWD, ZBRA, IYM, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, ICF, IYH, IEV, IXC, MXI, IXN, IGE, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWI, EPP, EZA, EWD, EWU, PPA, PJP, PHO, GLD, XLV, XLB, XLU, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,938.72    
 Monthly S1  14,551.36  612.65   
 Daily S2  14,995.62  444.25   
 Daily S1  15,079.81  84.20   
 Weekly S2  15,080.13  0.32   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S1.
 Monthly Pivot  15,090.22  10.09   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  15,122.07  31.85   
 Low  15,158.49  36.42   
 Close  15,164.01  5.52   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  15,242.69  78.68   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,252.87  10.18   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,282.03  29.15   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,311.18  29.15   
 Open  15,324.19  13.01   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  15,326.88  2.69   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  15,375.57  48.69   
 High  15,405.56  29.99   
 Weekly R1  15,417.51  11.95   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  15,489.76  72.25   
 Weekly R2  15,671.01  181.25   
 Monthly R1  15,702.86  31.85   
 Monthly R2  16,241.72  538.85   

 

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